Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 242348 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 748 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures should average near early summer seasonal norms through the period.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 749 PM EDT Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms tracking west to east along the international border early this evening will be diminishing over the next several hours as CAPE of 500 J/kg decreases rapidly with sunset. Elsewhere a quiet pleasant evening continues. By later tonight patchy mist and/or fog a definite possibility here and there, but given cyclonic flow aloft and ambient flow of 10-15 kts atop the nocturnal boundary layer it shouldn`t be widespread. Adirondack/Eastern VT river valleys and favored hollows show highest probabilities of occurrence at this point. Low temperatures near seasonal norms mainly in the 50s. By tomorrow the next in a seemingly endless train of shortwaves pulls into the area by the afternoon and evening hours as we remain under the influence of a semi-stationary longwave trough across central Canada. Best PVA and modest instability to occur across the northern half of the area where 40-60 pops will be maintained for sct/numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Pops somewhat less further south and removed from best dynamical forcing (20-40%0. Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage of afternoon clouds...mainly upper 60s to mid 70s, perhaps a few upper 70s far south. Scattered showers then continue early Sunday evening, especially north before waning somewhat after midnight with loss of insolation and exiting shortwave. Variable clouds should be the rule with some breaks as lows bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...A stronger shortwave in the long string of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper trof will increase rain chances Monday. Some instability will allow for at least isolated thunder during the afternoon hours and have allowed at least some limited chances for thunder in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures remain below normal through Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the area with increasing instability toward the end of the week. Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the end of the week. Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended, with a warming trend from mid week and later. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00Z Monday...Brief MVFR with TSRA at KMSS for the next hour or so, otherwise VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally westerly becoming light after sunset. Differing signals on degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the area. Despite ambient flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck, wet/near saturated soils from recent moderate/heavy rainfall boosts confidence to bring in patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals from 07-11Z, though admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is a matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals of KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light south/southwesterly from 5-10 kts. A rather vigorous upper level trof and surface based instability will bring a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms at all the terminals from 16z onward and for now shown as VCSH. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG/Sisson NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG/Sisson

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