Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231945 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 337 PM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH CENTER OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH STEADY HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS RISES OVERNIGHT...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. SOME LOWER READINGS LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE SOME LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THOSE SPOTS WHERE LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING OCCURS AND WINDS GO CALM. A LITTLE PATCHY FROST IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A HEADLINE. SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TEND TO PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 337 PM EDT SATURDAY...DURING SUNDAY...DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE LIMITED BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR THE MENTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER WILL BE DRY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WINDS A BIT BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING LATER AT NIGHT THOUGH AS A STRONG WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S IN MOST SPOTS. STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE GREATEST. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THREAT OF SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...UNSETTLED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EVERYDAY WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS LOOK TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK, SO ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE SOME MODERATE DOWNPOURS. 925MB TEMPS RANGE BETWEEN 18C AND 21C DURING THIS PERIOD, SUPPORTING MAX TEMPERATURES FROM M70S-M80S, WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S-M60S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME 10KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH EXCEPTION OF DRAINAGE WINDS AT KRUT OF 14006KT. THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT, DECK OF MID LEVEL CIGS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THINNING CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12KTS AND GUSTS DEVELOPING 15-25KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z MONDAY - ...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 337 PM SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW ON SUNDAY AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM FIRE WEATHER...RJS

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