Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 181928 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND 850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.