Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 301 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL /SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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