Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192315 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 715 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry cold front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare. Other than slightly cooler temperatures on Friday, high pressure will remain the dominant influence on regional weather conditions through the upcoming weekend with temperatures remaining well above late October norms. The next chance for widespread rainfall occurs by Monday night into Tuesday of next week as slow moving low pressure moves into the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 706 PM EDT Thursday...Surface cold front with little fan fair is approaching our western cwa this evening. This front will increase mid level clouds this evening and produce a wind shift from southwest to northwest after 06z tonight. These winds will help in the development of moderate 925mb to 850mb cold air advection with progged 850mb temps dropping between 5-7c by Friday. The combination of winds...clouds...and advection makes for a challenging temp forecast tonight. Have increased hourly temps by 3 to 5 degrees thru this evening based on crnt values...but kept early morning lows the same...given the advection. Thinking lows range from the mid/upper 30s dacks/northeast kingdom to near 50f champlain valley near the warmer water. Otherwise...no rain is anticipated with boundary. Another very mild and breezy day playing out across the area as high pressure retreats offshore and a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Many areas have climbed into the 60s to around 70 this afternoon (71 at KBTV as of 200 pm) and expect a few more spot low 70s readings in the warmer locales of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley before days end. The front is moisture-starved and other than scattered high cloud cover no precipitation is expected tonight as gusty southerly winds abate and veer to light west to northwesterly by sunrise Friday. Low temperatures remain on track to range through the 40s with a few 30s in favored northern mountain hollows. Another outstanding day on tap for Friday with wall to wall sunshine on light west/northwest flow as our recent semi- permanent eastern CONUS high pressure is dampened slightly behind tonight`s front. Mean 925 mb temperatures fall into the 8-10C range by mid-afternoon supporting blended bias-corrected highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s...about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than today though still some 5 to 10 degrees above normal levels for this time of year. Then more clear/quiet conditions expected by Friday night as high pressure remains in control. Low temperatures will show somewhat higher variability (30s to lower 40s) as radiative processes will have more influence under lighter synoptic wind regime, allowing drainage winds to keep elevated slopes milder and river valleys/hollows cooler in general.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Dry quiet warm weather will continue for Saturday and Saturday night with surface and upper level ridges in place. No significant precipitation is expected. Temperatures will continue to be about 15 degrees above seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Surface ridge will shift eastward on Sunday and a frontal system will approach from the Great Lakes region. Southwesterly flow ahead of next approaching system will aid in bringing temps up even further. A shortwave trough will move across eastern Canada on Monday and will have a chance for afternoon showers. A more pronounced large upper level trough approaches for the Tue into Wed timeframe. Have showers likely for Tuesday into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures continue through the week. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR through the period as dry surface front crosses the area. SCT to occasionally BKN high clouds generally above 150 AGL expected through 06Z Friday as gusty south/southwesterly winds into the 18-30 kt range gradually as the front approaches. Otherwise SKC from 06Z onward behind frontal passage as winds veer to west/northwesterly from 5 to 10 knots into Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special weather statement for Friday to bring awareness of breezy winds and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday across northern NY and VT. A dry frontal passage tonight will shift the winds to the northwest on Friday between 10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through tomorrow (Friday, 10/20) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG FIRE WEATHER... EQUIPMENT...BTV

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