Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140532 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1232 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and blustery conditions are expected overnight into Thursday before winds abate as high pressure builds into the region. Thereafter a slow moderation in temperatures is expected into next weekend with a few snow showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1018 PM EST Wednesday...Areal coverage of snow over northeast Vermont continues to decrease late tonight and this trend will continue for the next few hours. Going forecast has this covered well. Skies continue to gradually clear and once they do...especially after midnight...temperatures will fall quickly. Once again going forecast has this covered well and no big changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Overall trends for the next 36 hours will be towards quieter conditions as a brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon will trend towards a brief period of clearing skies this evening, but will be short- lived as a weak secondary clipper low passes to our south after midnight into Thursday morning. Nothing more than an increase in mid/high clouds overnight is expected, but will likely have an impact on meteor shower viewing tonight. If you`re planning on braving the bitter cold and winds, the best shot at clear skies is likely between 10 PM and 2 AM. Make sure to bundle up as well as lows tonight will range from the single digits above to single digits below zero with wind chills falling into the negative single digits to teens. Thursday starts partly cloudy to the north and mostly cloudy to the south, but as the aforementioned clipper exits off the eastern seaboard skies will clear again towards mid-day as high pressure takes control. The airmass is quite a chilly one with mean 925-850mb temps in the -15C to -20C range, offering highs only in the single digits to teens above zero, and lows Thursday night again in the single digits +/- zero, but winds will be lighter. Atop the high peaks though, temps Thursday will barely touch zero, and winds will be brisk in the 20-30 mph range, so if you`re planning on going to enjoy all this great snow we just got, make sure to bundle up as wind chills will push into the -20 to -30 below zero range. && .SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...Digging shortwave in broad cyclonic flow will back flow for favorable SW flow and potential lake effect banding moving northward into St. Lawrence by Friday aftn into Friday night ahead of surface clipper/front which after passage early Saturday morning the band will retreat south again. The flow indicates longest duration parallel or west of Route 11 then slipping quickly SE-S as clipper and front push through. Our thinking matches closely with WFO BUF and thinking several inches along-South of Route 3 in Adirondacks with perhaps 3-6+ locally along and West of Route 11 in SW St. Lawrence county. However...upper shortwave and surface clipper along with moisture fetch from Lake effect banding will bring about light snow/snow showers late Friday night - early Saturday especially for northern NY and mountains of VT. Snow squalls a good possibility along the frontal boundary Sat morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EST Wednesday.... Surface clipper and shortwave moves through NY/VT Saturday morning with some enhanced upslope flow snows dissipating during the afternoon. Widespread dusting to less than inch but several inches possible along western slopes/mountains and an inch-2 in NE VT hilly terrain. Quiet Sat ngt-Sunday with slight ridging at all levels then backing return flow will bring about some warm air advection precipitation Sunday night-Monday. ECMWF and Canadian are in agreement with a more amplified robust system, still yielding light precipitation whereas GFS is outlier with continued ridging and nothing. WPC similar to ECMWF/Canadian thus following these solutions. Differences continue Monday night-Tuesday as well but at least have similar thinking of a northern stream shortwave and weak front moving across in the Tuesday timeframe with perhaps coastal development after passing our area although GFS sooner/closer with coastal development and will back off on this solution for now. Temperatures near freezing with sub-freezing surface layer may mean some freezing rain as part of the light wintry mix for Monday- Tuesday. Temperatures gradually moderating throughout the period with above freezing highs in the Monday-Tuesday period and slightly cooler Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue for the 24 hr TAF period. Some mid and high level clouds will move across the area...but have little impact. Winds will be tapering off through the period with speeds under 10 knots generally after 12z. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Neiles

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