Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180829 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides to the east today, putting the North Country in south to southwest flow. Temperatures will moderate considerably, with valley high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for both Saturday and Sunday. Also, a weak upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds, with a slight chance for light rain or snow showers, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. The next chance for widespread precipitation will arrive the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EST Saturday...Above normal temperatures as strong 850-700mb WAA develops in southwest flow. Expect winds to increase and become gusty this afternoon especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Under this WAA, expect max temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s today - even with some clouds from a weak northern stream shortwave trough. This shortwave will also bring a chance for a few sprinkles/mtn snow showers tonight into Sunday. Min temperatures tonight will range in the low-mid 30s in the valleys and upper 20s above 1000-1500ft elevation. Winds are expected to subside overnight as well, shifting west towards Sunday morning. Mid level vorticity looks to push southward across portions of the North Country on Sunday, especially in the afternoon, keeping the chance of showers over the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Latter half of the weekend turns briefly unsettled as a weak clipper system and shortwave energy passing north across southern Ontario/Quebec will renew chances for some light shower activity, though with weak forcing and an overall lack of deep moisture expect the highest chances to be across the higher terrain and scattered at best. Temperatures remain rather mild with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s, which will produce a mix of rain/snow in any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Next week begins with surface high pressure settling in over central Quebec along with an upper ridge building in from the Great Lakes. Northerly flow around the high will bring temps back down to more seasonal levels with highs mainly in the low/mid 30s, and the combination of clear skies and deep snowpack leading to good radiational cooling Monday night with lows in the single digits to teens. Upper ridge and surface high center over the region on Tuesday with temps warming back above normal as south/southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next system which looks to bring another quick round of rain and snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday. Fast westerly flow ensues for Thursday with some weak terrain driven showers possible, before the pattern becomes highly amplified Friday ahead of a potential big system for next weekend. If the GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out we could be looking at very warm temperatures and an abundance of rain which could lead to rapid snowmelt and potential flooding problems. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions during the period with just passing mid-upr level clouds. NW winds 5-10kts will diminish to light and variable overnight. Winds will shift light SE toward daybreak, and then S-SW during the daylight hours on Saturday, approaching 10kts by 18Z. KRUT/KSLK could see some wind shear conditions at 2000ft from the southwest at 35-40 knots while KMSS will see winds become gusty at 15-25 knots after 18Z. Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday... Will see periods of HIR TRRN OBSCD 18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday. Any precipitation will be light, mainly isold/sct light rain or snow showers during Saturday night into early Sunday. Significant precipitation is not expected during the outlook period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos/MV

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