Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270608 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 208 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON. DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AIR MASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH, A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...EVENSON

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