Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280313 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1113 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure system continues to push eastward across Quebec. Scattered showers redevelop Tuesday as surface front moves west to east across our area. Wednesday and Thursday will be drier with ridge of high pressure building south out of Canada and over the North country. Another storm system looks to affect the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1107 PM EDT Monday...The North Country is in between mid- level troughs this evening. The leading shortwave trough - which brought this morning`s precipitation (0.30" at BTV since midnight) - is exiting ewd across nrn Maine and New Brunswick. There is a weaker shortwave and associated surface trough across sern Ontario and swrn Quebec, with is maintaining a moist S-SE flow across the North Country overnight. Not anticipating much change in wx conditions next 6-12hrs...with temps generally holding above freezing in the 35-40F range with low overcast in place. Dewpoint depressions are small, and have seen some developing fog at MSS/Potsdam this evening. With upr 30s dewpoints over the existing snowpack, could see some additional patchy dense fog overnight. Deep-layer forcing is limited. In fact, NAM/RAP soundings show mid-level drying thru the remainder of the overnight...so any lingering precipitation should primarily be drizzle or perhaps a light orographically induced rain shower or two. Only change with this update was to include patchy fog areawide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday....Surface high pressure will build southward from James Bay Tuesday. Low pressure system tracks eastward across Quebec dragging a surface front with it across our CWA. Will have some scattered light rain showers for Tuesday into the first part of Tuesday night. Region will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of aforementioned front early in the day and max temperatures will reach the upper 40s to around 50. Strongest shortwave energy stays well south of our CWA Tuesday, therefore only scattered showers expected with the frontal passage in the afternoon into Tuesday evening. Showers will taper off Tuesday overnight, with possible change over to snow showers with colder air moving into the region on Northwesterly flow. On Wed upper level trough pushes across our area with surface high pressure building south and east from central Ontario. Will continue to be some scattered light rain or snow showers, mainly across the northern high terrain. Wednesday will be about ten degrees cooler than Tue and back below seasonal normals once again. Looks to be a breezy day as well with cold air advection and northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Partly sunny skies will develop during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday night any remaining precipitation comes to an end with large ridge of surface high pressure ridging into the north country. Wednesday night will be near normal, temps dropping back into the 20s with some teens in the Dacks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 357 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country Thursday through Thursday night with fair and dry weather expected. A low pressure area over the Ohio valley will spread moisture into the region on Friday. GFS and ECMWF model showing some timing differences at this time, with the GFS model holding off precipitation until Friday afternoon, while the ECMWF is more aggressive and bring precipitation in earlier in the day on Friday. Have raised superblend pops to high chance (50 percent) for Friday across the region, and will have likely pops for Friday night. Will go with a mention of rain and snow for Friday and Friday night. Precipitation will linger into Saturday, so will continue with a chance of rain and snow. Have stuck with superblend pops for Saturday night and Sunday, and will have a chance of rain or snow showers. A ridge of high pressure will build into the north country on Monday for fair and dry weather. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Model guidance showing plenty of deep layer moisture will be over the region through the period, with MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings expected through 00Z Wednesday. Areas of fog are also expected over northern NY during the overnight hours, also in the IFR/LIFR range. Winds will remain light out of the south for all stations at 7 knots or less except KMSS which will continue to remain locked in light northeasterly flow for most of the period. Outlook 00Z Wednesday through Saturday... 00Z Wednesday through 12Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in scattered rain showers Tuesday, then scattered rain/snow showers Tuesday night. 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR, with some scattered rain or snow showers mainly over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. 12Z Thursday through 18Z Friday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over Vermont and northern New York. 18Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/MV

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