Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170605 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 205 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A deep layer ridge will bring continued pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions to the North Country during the next 5 to 7 days. Light winds and clear skies will lead to nocturnal fog, which could be locally dense Sunday and Monday mornings across the valleys of central and eastern Vermont, and within the northern Adirondack region. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s in valley locations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...With high pressure overhead, winds will be light and variable and driven by local terrain effects this morning. The high dewpoints and clear skies have allowed for locally dense fog to form in the normally favored valleys of central/ern VT and within the nrn Adirondacks. Temperatures fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s this morning, which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Sunday will be another quiet weather day under ridge of high pressure. Will again see daytime cu, but doesn`t appear shower activity will develop with general subsidence regime aloft keeping cu moderate over the ridgetops. 850mb temps bump upward 1-2C, so should see quite a few valley locations into the mid- 80s Sunday afternoon. Sunday night will see another chance for fog development in the favored valley locations. Temperatures will again creep up slightly, with morning lows expected to fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. 500mb heights will gradually be decreasing as moisture increases from easterly flow ahead of Jose. The additional moisture will begin to interact with a trough advancing through the Great Lakes region and lead to increased cloud cover across the North Country on Monday. The thermal ridge will stay in place however and so without a change in airmass, expect another day in the 80s although a few degrees cooler than Sunday due to the cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Monday night will be a rinse and repeat of fog for anywhere not impacted by the light rain with Jose. Lows overnight will be remain still a couple of degrees above normal with temps only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Trends and consensus of the guidance continue to indicate Jose will track just over the 70-40 benchmark late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This scenario would allow for light showers to affect eastern and southern VT with no major impacts to the rest of the forecast area. There are some track changes as we head into Wednesday but this is largely do the fact the steering flow is weak. So at this point the models will subject to moderate errors due the intensity of the system. Either way, impacts to the North Country remain minimal and rain is expected to come to an end by Wednesday evening. Behind that, ridging will build into the region, closing out the week with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Monday...Variable conditions across the North Country this morning. Expect VLIFR conditions to persist at KSLK and KMPV through sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions will tend to vary between VFR-IFR throughout the next 6-8 hrs. Winds remain light, allowing fog to persist through 12Z-14Z Sunday. Once fog does lift, VFR conditions will persist throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening. Outlook... Monday: IFR-VLIFR in Patchy FG. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night - Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...KGM

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