Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230726 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 326 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England later in the week, warmer and more humid conditions will bring chances for showers and possible thunderstorms to the area Thursday into Thursday night. A few lingering showers are possible on Friday. However, generally looking for a return to dry conditions later Friday and through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds back across southeastern Canada and New England.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...Synoptically quiescent conditions with strong surface high pressure centered this morning across the srn tier of NY and PA. Early AM valley fog will dissipate between 12-13Z, leaving generally sunny conditions. A chilly start with min temperatures generally mid 40s to lower 50s early this AM. As the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of the North Country early Tuesday, winds will become SW to WSW. Winds generally at or below 10 mph, but slightly stronger gradient flow across nrn NY will bring sw winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across the St. Lawrence Valley and nrn Adirondacks 15Z-23Z. Will see some moderation in temperatures compared to Monday. Afternoon maximum temperatures expected to reach 75-80F in most locations. High pressure drifts east of NJ tonight with continued quiet conditions across the North Country. Good radiative cooling setup will bring redevelopment of fog in climatologically favored river valleys 05-12Z Wednesday. PoPs NIL thru the near-term period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level ridge builds ahead of short wave energy on weds with south to southwest winds. Progged 850mb temps climb to 16c with 925mb temps near 22c...adding 15 to 850mb or 10 to 925mb supports highs well into the 80s with a few readings near 90 for weds. Have bumped a degree or two above superblend guidance. dewpoints will slowly increase...especially by thursday...as southerly winds continue ahead of boundary. For thursday...initial pre-frontal trough and associated 5h vort moves quickly from west to east across our region between 18z-00z. This will produce some showers with maybe an embedded rumble of thunder. Best low level instability with cape values approaching 500 j/kg is located over the saint lawrence valley. Better 850 to 500 mb moisture arrives around 06z friday...along with pws surging to 1.75 inches ahead of well defined cold front. This low level convergence...along with stronger upper level forcing from digging mid/upper level trof will produce a band of showers with embedded storms on thursday night. Given the timing of boundary and lack of instability...not expecting any strong storms...but some localized downpours are possible. Convective elements will move fast given expected storm motions of 30 to 40 knots. QPF will generally be between 0.25 and 0.75 through thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface boundary will quickly move across our eastern section on friday morning...with any lingering showers ending by mid morning. Soundings show deep dry layer developing by midday friday...with increasing amounts of sunshine expected. Still cannot rule out a stray shower across the mountains and northeast vt on friday afternoon. Forecast area will be under low level cold air advection on friday with progged 850mb temps falling to 12c by 00z saturday. Given nw to se gradient thinking temps will range from the mid 70s northern ny to l/m 80s near vsf...associated with northwest downslope flow. Weak surface high with dry and cool conditions on saturday. By sunday...system shifts into eastern maine and southerly return flow ahead of next short wave energy and moisture develops. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s with our next chance for showers arriving on sunday night into monday. Once again system will be quick moving with only a 3 to 6 hour window of precip expected...before dry air associated with high pressure builds. Temps will trend several degrees above normal during the period with lows mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s and highs mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /08Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Clear skies, calm winds and near-surface moisture fluxes from recent rainfall expected to produce LIFR to VLIFR radiational fog as mid-40s crossover temps are reached after 05Z. SLK and MPV are the TAFs most likely to see fog and have carried 1/4SM FG VV001 06-12Z at those locations. Brief intervals of IFR can`t be ruled out thru 12z at the remaining TAF locations given generally favorable conditions for patchy fog development. Fog dissipates between 12-13Z and then generally VFR/SKC areawide. Winds becoming southwest around 4-8 kts Tuesday, except around 10kts at MSS/SLK with gusts across nrn NY 16-18kts at times thru the daylight hrs. Clear again Tuesday night with high pressure in place with light winds controlled by local orographic influences. Will see LIFR fog redevelop at SLK/MPV 06-12Z Wednesday period. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday... 12Z Wed - 18Z Thurs...VFR under high pressure. Only exception will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z Wednesday night. 18Z Thurs - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered showers continuing into Thursday night. Generally drying out Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds. 00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 1051 PM EDT Monday...The AWOS (automated weather observing system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT) remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. The FAA has also told us that they have no estimate at this time as to when the KRUT AWOS will be returned to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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