Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201115 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 715 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 714 AM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO ADJUST TEMPS AND SKY TOWARDS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS... OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY USHERING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S IN THE VALLEYS. DECENT 925-850MB JET AROUND 40 KTS ALONG WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELING EFFECTS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA...LIKELY REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING! PRECIP SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN DACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUBSEQUENTLY ENDING PRECIP. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW- MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AREAWIDE. ALSO WATCHING SOME DEVELOPING STRATUS ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY...WHICH WILL IMPACT RUT/MPV AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH SCT-BKN040-050. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT BTV...WINDS ALREADY 10KTS AND WILL INCREASE TO 15G25KT AFTER 13-14Z. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT PBG/MSS/SLK UNTIL LOW-LEVELS MIX OUT AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS AT ABOVE MENTIONED TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH STRONGEST SHEAR BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND RIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...LAHIFF

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