Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150810 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for a continuation of dry weather. Clear skies and light winds tonight will bring the North Country another night of below zero temperatures. A warming trend will begin on Monday with highs in the teens to around 20 and then in the 20s on Tuesday. The threat of light snow will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1214 AM EST Monday...Quiet but cold weather in store overnight as a surface arctic high centered over southeastern Canada shifts northeastward. Under the surface high, winds are light to calm and skies are clear, allowing for effective radiational cooling in the overnight hours. A fairly cold polar airmass is overhead, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -20 degrees C throughout the forecast area. Deep snowpack over the northern portion of the forecast area will also aid in rapid cooling in the overnight hours. Have made minor adjustments to the temperature forecast to account for the accelerated cooling in the early overnight hours. Expect widespread overnight temperatures below zero, with temperatures dipping to the -20s in areas with the deepest snowpack (northern New York and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 AM EST Monday...Consistent with previous forecasts, appears some light stratiform snowfall (1"-2.5") is likely across central/s-central/ern VT Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with relatively high snow ratios expected. Positive tilt 700-500mb trough extending across sern Ontario into the Ohio Valley will be associated with development of a modest sfc low Tuesday night off the NJ coast per 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns. Overall idea is that this system will slowly deepen while tracking newd across sern MA/southeast of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine. The 00z GFS and 00Z NAM are a bit further south and east with this system, resulting in lighter QPF amts across central/ern VT as compared to the 00Z ECMWF. Went with a compromise for now, resulting in a light snow accumulation of 1-2.5" across central/s-central VT for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the highest totals across the srn Green Mtns. North and west of KBTV, not expecting much in the way of snowfall with this system, though as upper trough shears out across the area, there may be some scattered lake effect/orographic snow showers across the Northern Adirondacks late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Have included 30-40 PoPs across srn St. Lawrence and Franklin NY counties for this possibility. Clouds and moderating air mass will result in somewhat more seasonable temperatures thru the period. Will see lows Tuesday night mainly in the teens, with a few low 20s possible across the valleys of s-central VT. Temperatures will warm into the mid-upr 20s in most valley sections on Wednesday afternoon, before falling back into the teens for Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 306 AM EST Monday...Main story during the long-term period will be continued moderation of temperatures across the North Country as W-SW low-level flow regime develops across the ern Great Lakes into the nern CONUS. While the warm up won`t be as dramatic as what was experienced last Friday, should see high temperatures rise into the upr 20s Thursday, low-mid 30s Friday, mid-upr 30s on Saturday, and potentially into the 40s for Sunday. Any precipitation is expected to be light, limited to potentially weak/fast moving mid- level northern stream shortwave troughs embedded in zonal flow, and detached from any more significant moisture from lower latitudes. Timing is uncertain in fast mid-upr tropospheric flow, but currently max PoPs only in the 20-30% for possible light snow showers Thursday, and potential mix of rain or snow showers over the weekend. There may be a more significant frontal system passing to our west Sunday night into Monday, bringing a wintry mix trending toward mainly rain based on expected low track and associated vertical temperature profiles. This system is at the very end - to just beyond - the current long-term forecast period, so we`ll continue to monitor trends. With ice jams likely still in place, may see some renewed hydro concerns toward the end of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and calm to light winds will prevail through the TAF period with surface high pressure overhead. Expect scattered high level clouds to move in between 15Z and 00Z in advance of the next system, with the clouds thickening and lowering to 100-150 AGL between 00Z and 06Z. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...RSD SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...RSD

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