Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161851 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 251 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 251 PM EDT Monday...A mainly cloudy and cool day generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and summit level freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the 25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place. By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a bit gusty from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high temperatures range through the 50s, staying milder and only falling into the 35 to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will support highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold front through the North Country but the system will be moisture deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near 70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT terminals through 00Z Tue where a brief sprinkle will be possible. Winds northwest 6 to 12 knots and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range at eastern terminals through 00Z before trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain Valley west. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005- 009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001. NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG

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