Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST. TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS SOUTH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT. 12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. && .MARINE... AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...SLW MARINE...LAHIFF

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