Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 151809
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
109 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure builds into the region from Canada this afternoon
and remains over the area through Monday. Thus drier weather is
expected and a warming trend will begin starting Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 109 PM EST Sunday...Surface observations and radar
indicating that light snow earlier this morning has come to an
end across the region at this time, as a ridge of high pressure
builds east from the Great Lakes for the remainder of this
afternoon and tonight. Visible satellite loop showing signs of
low cloud cover staring to slowly diminish as the high builds
east. Have lowered max temperature a few degrees in some
locations based on latest surface temperatures. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape.
Previous discussion from 719 AM EST Sunday...Areal coverage of
light snow hanging tough over the area this morning and have
gone ahead and continued the higher probability snow through at
least mid- morning before tapering off. Looks like a little bit
of everything seems to be enhancing the light snow and thus the
reason to keep it going longer...especially over the northern
Adirondacks and the northern half of Vermont. Otherwise...clouds
will continue to linger over a good part of the area through
this afternoon with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s.
High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. As a
result...dry weather is expected during this time period. More
sunshine is expected on Monday and with developing southerly
flow...high temperatures should be several degrees warmer than
Sunday with readings getting into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 259 AM EST Sunday...Generally quiet conditions are
expected for Monday night through the majority of Tuesday as
surface high pressure persists over the North Country. For
Monday night, weak shortwave energy passing north of the area
combined with some lingering low level moisture may spark a few
snow showers across our northern tier zones, but most of the
area should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday begins
a warming trend that we`ll see through the week with highs
pushing well into the 30`s area-wide with southerly flow
increasing ahead of our next system. More on that below.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 259 AM EST Sunday...Active weather returns for the mid-
week time-frame as we continue to monitor the likelihood for yet
another mixed precipitation event, followed by mainly dry
conditions to end the work week with well above normal
Consensus amongst the latest runs of GFS/ECMWF/GEM have slowed the
arrival time of precip compared to yesterdays model suite, but
overall the synoptic pattern hasn`t changed much highlighting
primary low pressure pulling through the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
with a secondary low developing along the Maine coast Wednesday
afternoon/night. Trends on this mornings runs though have favored a
weaker primary low and stronger secondary offering slightly cooler
925mb temps Tuesday night which has changed our forecast a bit to
limit the potential for freezing rain, and highlight more of a snow
sleet mix instead. Mix hangs on a little longer into Wednesday
morning across eastern Vermont as well, before warm air advection
wins over by 18z where thereafter rain is the dominant ptype until
the secondary low develops Wednesday afternoon/evening and colder
air returns aloft supporting a transition to rain/snow mix Wednesday
night. Still several days away to dial in the forecast, but our
first guess at accumulations is a couple of inches of snow and sleet
east of the Greens Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, enough to
make for a messy commute. As the secondary low bombs out over the
Gulf of Maine, north-northwesterly low/mid level wrap around
moisture will keep some scattered rain and snow showers around for
Thursday, but by days end surface high pressure and an upper ridge
building over the central CONUS will begin to shift eastward. Highs
Wed/Thu will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows in the upper 20s
to low 30s
Friday/Saturday are dominated by high pressure both at the surface
and aloft, with mid-levels remaining very mild for late January
supporting highs continuing well above normal in the mid 30s to low
40s under partial sunshine.
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...A ridge of high pressure will build east
from the Great Lakes this afternoon and will remain over the
north country through Monday. Mainly VFR conditions expected
through the period.
18z Monday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure
through 18Z Tuesday. Next large-scale precipitation system
tracks to our west Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in widespread precipitation,
possibly as early as late Tuesday, but more likely Tuesday
night or Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday...mainly becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region.