Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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089 FXUS61 KBTV 031814 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 114 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Snow persists across much of the North Country today, with steady snow expected across the high terrain through tonight. Fairly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure and deeper moisture push into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 115 PM EST Saturday...Snow persists as mid level shortwave moves over the North Country adding lift for more scattered snow showers this afternoon. Steady snow expected on western slopes and higher terrain around 1000 feet and above. Scattered to numerous snow showers expected elsewhere. Below 1000 ft expect a dusting to 1 inch, 1000-1500ft 1-4 inches, 4-6 inches across higher terrain in NY, and 4-8 inches in the higher terrain of VT. temperatures struggle to increase throughout the day under cold air advection. Maxes generally in the 30s today with min temperatures falling into the teens and upper 20s tonight. Clouds are expected to persist under strengthening inversion. snow showers will diminish in coverage tonight, but persist in the higher terrain. Still some concern for possible FZDZ as drying occurs aloft and moisture sinks below the snow growth zone for early morning Sunday. Will wait for new guidance before mentioning in forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 AM EST Saturday...Surface and upper level ridging will be over the North Country on Sunday and region will have dry weather through Sunday night. Surface and upper level trofs will approach from our West and bring some light rain and snow on Monday, any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will run a couple degrees below normal for Sunday through Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday will feature some dry weather as another ridge briefly builds over the area. Tuesday looks to be the day with the best chance for any sunshine. The weather pattern will become more unsettled from Tuesday night onward with several chances for light rain and snow showers once again. GFS and ECMWF still not quite coming into line from Day 4 onward. Have chance for precipitation mentioned every forecast period, though still lots of uncertainty. Right now best chance for precipitation will be Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low crosses just north of our forecast area along with its associated fronts. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF with this feature. Both models though show precipitation lingering with lots of wrap around moisture headed into the weekend with low pressure very slowly departing Eastern Canada. Temperatures will trend colder next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Widespread MVFR conditions persist across the North Country as combination of northwest flow and plentiful moisture continue to produce snow showers. Periods of IFR possible in snow showers. While areal coverage of snow showers will gradually decrease, focusing around the higher terrain and western slopes, expect MVFR conditions to persist into Sunday morning. All but SLK and MPV expected to improve to VFR in the mid to late morning hours, but low VFR deck of clouds will persist under strong inversion. Snowfall totals throughout the period will generally be a dusting to two tenths of an inch in broad valley locations: MSS, PBG, BTV, RUT. MPV and SLK can expect about a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch through 18Z Sunday. Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday... 18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...Trending mainly VFR with high pressure building into the area. 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday...trending BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR cigs with scattered areas of light rain or snow, mainly at KMSS/KSLK. Brief IFR possible at these terminals with this activity. 12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure. 06Z Wednesday onward...trending MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.