Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301922 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH). THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD, BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED. DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS FOLLOW... SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT 0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS, DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL. NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS 30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F. SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS) WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA... ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. 18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH

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