Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 022312 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 712 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY. I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS: THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS. FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35% POPS IN THOSE AREAS. SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S (NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS. STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY (UNDER 5 KTS). SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z. TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR. 12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.