Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050533 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1233 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW). FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER- TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED. WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT 15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...KGM

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