Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 300224
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North
Country. Locally heavy downpours remain possible. Expect
additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler
high temperatures. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s
and lower humidity levels.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
As of 1019 PM EDT Sunday...Moist plume (precipitable water values
of 1.5" to 1.6") will remain over the North Country overnight in
advance of sfc cold front moving ewd across sern Ontario and Lake
Erie at 02Z. Instability has waned across the region, a
combination of loss of daytime heating and broad region of shower
and thunderstorm activity that has affected the region this
afternoon and evening, and associated rain cooled low-level air
now in place. We did see a few areas of damaging winds earlier
today around St. Albans/Sheldon VT and also Essex County NY near
Lake Champlain with separate thunderstorms. Also, radar estimated
rainfall in excess of 4" indicated along the nrn slopes of the
Adirondacks (central Franklin County NY) with training
thunderstorm activity mid-late aftn. This occurred largely in a
wilderness area, with no reports of flooding thus far. Please
refer to our local storm reports for specific details on storm
damage and any future flooding reports that we may acquire.
500mb ridge continues to break down overnight in response to
shortwave trough crossing the ern Great Lakes. Moderately high PW
values, mid-level height falls, and increasingly cyclonic flow
will maintain chances for shower activity overnight, though
overall coverage of rainfall should decrease. An additional
0.2-0.3" rainfall is possible through the remainder of the
overnight period. Will see low temperatures mainly in the low to
mid 60s, with cooler temps across ern VT with some marine modified
air working into ern VT on light E-SE flow (lows in the upr 50s in
this region). Given today`s rainfall, will see patchy fog
overnight, especially in the valleys within the nrn Adirondack
region where rainfall was locally heaviest.
For Memorial Day, anticipate another day of scattered showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as
today so instability will be limited however through will be
enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Best
threat central into s-central VT. Expected max temps tomorrow will
be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts
to push through the North Country.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...Have kept in slight to low chance pops
early Monday evening for showers, but expecting conditions to
become dry later Monday night. High pressure to build into the
region on Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Great Lakes will build
slowly east Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing dry weather and
cooler temperatures to the north country.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes, with fair and dry
weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. A weakening cold front
will move east from the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday and
will bring a chance of showers to the north country. ECMWF and GFS
models showing some difference for Saturday and Sunday, so have
stuck with super-blend pops and will have a chance for showers in
the forecast for next weekend.
.AVIATION /02Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Convective activity is gradually diminishing
in intensity across the North Country this evening...but will
continue to see light to moderate shower activity along with isold
tstms through 03-04z. These showers and isold tstms will bring
brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Thereafter...will be
concerned with areas of BR with locally dense fog at SLK due to
today`s rainfall. Indicated IFR fog 05-12z at SLK...and may see
4-6sm BR at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn
period. Generally VFR for the daylight hours on Monday. May see
some additional showers/isold tstms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of tstm development across central and
s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15kts late
morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.
Outlook 00z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:
BTV - Burlington 89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier 87 in 1978
MSS - Massena 90 in 1978
St Johnsbury 92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978