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295
FXUS61 KBTV 191915
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak and dry cold front will cross the area tonight with
little fanfare. Other than slightly cooler temperatures on
Friday, high pressure will remain the dominant influence on
regional weather conditions through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures remaining well above late October norms. The next
chance for widespread rainfall occurs by Monday night into
Tuesday of next week as slow moving low pressure moves into the
northeast.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...Another very mild and breezy day
playing out across the area as high pressure retreats offshore
and a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Many areas
have climbed into the 60s to around 70 this afternoon (71 at
KBTV as of 200 pm) and expect a few more spot low 70s readings
in the warmer locales of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley
before days end. The front is moisture-starved and other than
scattered high cloud cover no precipitation is expected tonight
as gusty southerly winds abate and veer to light west to
northwesterly by sunrise Friday. Low temperatures remain on
track to range through the 40s with a few 30s in favored
northern mountain hollows.

Another outstanding day on tap for Friday with wall to wall
sunshine on light west/northwest flow as our recent semi-
permanent eastern CONUS high pressure is dampened slightly
behind tonight`s front. Mean 925 mb temperatures fall into the
8-10C range by mid-afternoon supporting blended bias-corrected
highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s...about 4 to 8 degrees
cooler than today though still some 5 to 10 degrees above normal
levels for this time of year. Then more clear/quiet conditions
expected by Friday night as high pressure remains in control.
Low temperatures will show somewhat higher variability (30s to
lower 40s) as radiative processes will have more influence
under lighter synoptic wind regime, allowing drainage winds to
keep elevated slopes milder and river valleys/hollows cooler in
general.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge builds into the region
Friday night and Saturday. Should see plenty of sunshine with
surface high pressure over the area and above normal
temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will
generally be under 10 miles per hour. Overall should be a great
day for outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge axis shifts east of the
area Saturday night through Sunday night with surface high
moving east as well. This will promote a south to southwest flow
pattern and above normal temperatures are expected to continue
right into early next week. Dry weather is expected Saturday
night through Monday morning...but a shortwave trough will move
across eastern Canada on Monday and we may see some afternoon
showers. A more noticeable pattern change takes place Tuesday
into Wednesday as large upper trough develops upstream and a
more pronounced southerly flow pattern sets up over the area.
Showers will become likely Tuesday into Wednesday as a result.
Plenty of cloud cover will help lower temperatures...but above
normal temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR through the period as dry surface front
crosses the area. SCT to occasionally BKN high clouds generally
above 150 AGL expected through 06Z Friday as gusty
south/southwesterly winds into the 18-30 kt range gradually
as the front approaches. Otherwise SKC from 06Z onward behind
frontal passage as winds veer to west/northwesterly from 5 to 10
knots into Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
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KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through tomorrow (Friday, 10/20) as
technicians repaint the radome.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...BTV