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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260758
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today. A
frontal system will move east from the Great Lakes today bringing
increasing high clouds to the region today. This frontal system
will move across the north country tonight, bringing rain showers
to the region tonight and early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 358 AM EDT Monday...Satellite loop showing high thin cirrus
clouds moving southeast into the region from Canada at this time.
Expecting increasing cloud cover across the north country today.
Areas of frost and patchy dense fog will burn off by mid morning.
Expecting mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the 60s. Will
likely allow the frost advisories/freeze warning to expire at 8 AM
EDT today.

Tonight, Clouds will be on the increase across the region, which
will result in much milder temperatures across the region
tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s.
Expecting rain showers to develop across northern New York
tonight. These showers will move into Vermont, mainly after
midnight tonight. Models show a mid level dry slot will move into
the region late tonight, so expecting most of the shower activity
to end by daybreak on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...Models continue to be consistent with
large 500mb trough associated with surface closed low pressure
system over southwestern Ontario with a frontal boundary extending
southward across the eastern Great Lakes moving eastward. This
system will bring a strong 850mb jet of 35-45kts across the region
from west to east Monday night and PWATs greater than 1 inch.
Latest NAM and GFS show low level deformation with the front
weakening as it moves across the North Country Tuesday morning.
Therefore expect best chances for rain showers across Northern New
York and especially in SW facing slopes as the low level jet will
lead to shadowing affects on leeward facing slopes and valleys.

On Tuesday, bulk of precip will affect the Green Mountains and
Northeast Kingdom but with SW flow continuing and the cold front
bringing cooler air over Lake Ontario, the St Lawrence valley
could see some lake effect rain showers. Expect precip to end
Tuesday night as the frontal system moves into the Atlantic, while
the 500mb low retrogrades towards Chicago.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...With 500mb low becoming cutoff, there
could still be slight to low chances for rain showers throughout
the period as models have difficulty determining movement of the
low. It does appear that bulk of energy will be south and west
with light northeast flow persisting over the North Country. This
will keep clouds around with temperatures during the day reaching
the 60s and and at night generally in the 40s throughout the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected, except for
some areas of patchy dense valley fog in the sheltered valleys of
eastern and northeast Vermont, as well as the sheltered valleys of
the Adirondacks til 13Z Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...

06z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered
showers.

00z Wed - 00z Sat: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004-007-
     008-010-017.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-006-
     009-011-012-016-018-019.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff