Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272342 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A band of showers with a rumble of thunder will move from west to east across the North Country late tonight into early Friday morning. Rainfall will be generally under a quarter of an inch with any lingering showers moving east of our area by midday Friday. Temperatures will remain mild for Friday into Saturday...before another cold front produces more showers and cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 742 PM EDT Thursday...Previous forecast is in great shape, with just a few changes to onset and end timing of precipitation based on latest model trends showing a very narrow band of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder rolling through mainly after the midnight hour through 12z Friday, falling apart as it tracks eastward out of the Adirondacks and through VT. Rest of the forecast for the period remains unchanged. Previous Discussion...Forecast focus tonight will be timing of a band of rain showers moving from west to east...along with an embedded rumble of thunder. Big picture shows mid/upper level trof lifting across the great lakes with trailing ribbon of mid level moisture and associated weakening 5h vort lobe. Taking a model blend between nam/gfs shows best 850 to 500mb moisture and weak 700 to 500mb omega couplet across our western cwa around 06z...into the cpv around 09z...and over eastern VT around 12z Friday. Have utilizing pops from model reflectivity to display this timing in our grids/forecast overnight...with a 1 to 3 hour window of likely to cat pops. Have continued to mention schc for a rumble of thunder...best CAPE profiles of 400 to 800 j/kg is located over nny around 06z...with an axis of -1 to -3 showalter values shifting from west to east across our region overnight. The combination of some dynamics and elevated instability support the schc wording. Qpf will generally be between 1 and 2 tenths of an inch...maybe a few higher values in convective elements over northern NY. Still anticipating low level southeast winds to advect additional low level moisture back into central/eastern vt overnight with low clouds prevailing. These clouds will lift as winds shift to the west/southwest on Friday. Temps mainly in the upper 40s to near 60f overnight. On Friday...mid level dry slot develops along with weak ridge of high pres under west/southwest flow aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps shows a sharp nw to se gradient across our cwa with temps near 5 to 6c slv to 16c near VSF...which support mid 60s west to near 80f vsf and lower parts of the CPV. A few light lingering shower are possible across eastern vt thru 15z...but most of the area will remain dry with above normal temps prevailing. Good mixing and progged 850mb winds between 35 and 40 knots...support some localized wind gusts to 30 knots...especially in channeled flow over the slv. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Fast moving flow aloft will exist over the area through the period. Friday night starts off dry...but then surge of moisture moves in during the first part of Saturday and brings showers to the area before exiting to the east late in the day. Saturday night will be dry once again. Despite the precipitation on Saturday...much of the area will see above normal temperatures...especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure will be over the area Sunday morning with this feature moving east during the day. A frontal boundary will move into the region late in the day and increase the chances for some showers late in the day over northern New York. The front will move toward the Canadian border Sunday night into Monday with the best chances for precipitation over the far northern portions of the area. Eventually a cold front moves into the area Monday night into Tuesday and showers will be more likely across the entire area. This will be our best chance for higher precipitation amounts as moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic should move up into the region. Temperatures will be warm enough aloft to promote some high elevation snowmelt and we should see some noticeable rises on area waterways. Unsettled weather continues Tuesday through Thursday as upper trough lingers over the Northeast. Warmest temperatures should be on Monday with temperatures trending toward more seasonal values for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period for almost all sites with a brief window of opportunity for MVFR cigs/vsby as a narrow band of showers traverses the North Country from 04-12Z Friday. Exception will be KMPV where persistent southeasterly flow will redevelop MVFR marine layer after about 02Z and continue through mid-day tomorrow where by then all sites return to VFR with clearing skies. Winds remain south/southeast from KPBG east overnight, turning southwesterly after 12Z, while KMSS/KSLK are more predominantly southwest through the period where some gusts up towards 20kts are possible. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff

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