Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291645 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY... A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS. AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW

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