Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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750 FXUS61 KBTV 091808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 208 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A relatively quiet day with a few showers along mountain ridges today will give way to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The potential for hit or miss rain will decrease heading into the weekend, a warming trend will begin. Hotter conditions will peak on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front, which will bring conditions a little closer to normal after rounds of showers and storms. Then a return to climatological afternoon pop up activity will resume with seasonably warm conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Broad troughiness currently overspreads the eastern US. There`s a weak disturbance embedded within cyclonic flow lifting up into our region. However, surface high pressure and plenty of mid-level dry air is in place. The best the atmosphere can offer today will be a few showers over the mountain tops. A mid- level inversion should preclude thunder. Temperatures have been warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and conditions marginally humid with low to mid 60s dewpoints. Tonight, scattered cloud cover may inhibit fog, but last night featured similar conditions and still managed patchy fog. Surface dewpoints will continue to climb with very light winds. Even though we`re a little removed from rain, conditions appear favorable for fog development outside cloud cover. A seasonably warm night in the upper 50s in sheltered hollows and upper 60s across the broader valleys is expected, tonight. On Thursday, the combination of an incoming surface trough or weak closed low alongside building high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will result in surface confluence over Vermont and northern New York. There`s a vigorous upper vort on our doorstep, but it pivots away before intruding, such that we should observe little in the way of height falls. Showers and thunderstorms should be able to initialize late morning or early afternoon with little capping to put a lid on convection. Early activity should focus across eastern Vermont, and this appears to enhance a thermal gradient across the the Champlain Valley. Eastern Vermont will likely remain in the low to mid 70s while areas west warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As lake breeze interactions initiate about the same time as the incoming trough, broader activity will develop mid-afternoon through the Champlain Valley. Finally, there will be some showers and thunderstorms that track west from the St. Lawrence Valley into northern New York that may also trigger some activity along any outflow boundaries. Following sunset, showers will decrease in coverage, but not end completely, while the base of the upper trough passes overhead. HREF guidance is pinning the Northeast Kingdom and parts of the southern Champlain Valley with at least a 10% chance of seeing more than 3 inches of rain in 6 hours. This continues the theme of a marginal risk outlook for excessive rain. We`ll have to monitor the potential closely, but PWATs are only about 1.50". A sharp theta E ridge will be present across the forecast area, but flow will fortunately increase as the day progresses up to 20 knots. Ingredients are only marginally conducive, but will watch closely since at least some are present. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will be quieter. Warm advection in the mid-levels and dry air will keep activity at bay, although not completely due to favorable positioning to the south of an upper jet streak and marginal instability that should overcome the cap later in the day along a remnant boundary across eastern Vermont. Increasing thicknesses with the building ridge means we`re in for a warming trend. Temperatures will rise close to 80 in eastern Vermont, and generally will be lower 80s to mid 80s west of the Greens. Any showers will conclude over Friday night with another seasonably warm night in the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...Mid/upper lvl ridge builds acrs our cwa this weekend with mostly dry and warm conditions anticipated. Cannot completely rule out a shower/storm acrs central/southern sections on Sat aftn/evening as weak s/w energy and slightly better mid lvl moisture impacts this region. Have mention 15-25% pops for now, but minimal impacts anticipated. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 20-22C by 18z Sunday, supporting highs mid 80s to lower 90s with moderate humidity values, with dwpts in the 60s. A few localized cities in the CPV may approach heat advisory criteria. The threat for showers/storms increase on Monday/Tues time frame associated with mid/upper lvl trof and cold frnt. Still some spread in the guidance with regards to timing of this feature, but highest pops look to be on Monday aftn/evening. Very warm temps in the 80s to near 90F with dwpts well into the 60s to near 70F ahead of boundary wl create some instability favorable for thunderstorm development. The upscale growth and organization of convection as always wl depend upon timing and interaction of instability/shear on Monday. Drier and a little cooler wx returns for mid week with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Aviation challenge will be areal coverage of potential fog/low clouds at EFK/MPV and SLK. Current GOES-19 vis satl imagery shows plenty of mid/upper level clouds moving into our region, while some instability cumulus clouds have developed over the terrain. High clouds could limit the areal coverage of fog/br tonight. Have utilized tempo groups between 08-12z at SLK/EFK to highlight a 30 to 40% confidence in IFR or lower vis/cigs in fog/br. Meanwhile, sounding data at MPV suggests the potential for IFR or lower stratus deck developing on east/southeast flow, so have tempo MPV with IFR/LIFR cigs and IFR vis between 08-12z. Outside of lower cigs/vis on Thurs morning, mostly VFR conditions prevail at our taf sites with light terrain or lake induced winds of 3 to 7 knots. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Taber