Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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471 FXUS61 KBTV 310019 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 819 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with slightly above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 722 PM EDT Monday...Cold front is sweeping ewd across VT at 7pm with moderately strong low-mid level drying underway. The 2-m dewpoint at BTV has dropped from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm. Corresponding mid-level drying appeared to cause substantial entrainment into incipient convective storms and significantly limited tstm activity during the past 1-3 hours. Did receive a report of 0.17" rainfall in Brownington, but coverage of storms/rainfall was quite limited and the appears to be over at this point. Will continue to see drying overnight with skies becoming mostly clear from west to east following frontal passage. Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide. May see some patchy fog in more sheltered spots after midnight, but fog potential will be fighting against the drying and wly 925mb winds 15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall in the past 24-30hrs suggests there will be some fog/mist, but would anticipate just intermittent fog around SLK and the river valleys east of the Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given some of the negative factors overnight tonight. Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows done the progression of the cold front from the western Great Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for Saturday, and dry Saturday night. ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday. Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR to prevail through the period. Drier air on WSW winds will inhibit widespread fog overnight with clear skies but given nearly an inch of rain yesterday still can`t rule out very localized mvfr-ifr at KSLK and patchy at best and MVFR at KMPV. Winds pick up from w-nw at 10-15 knots during tuesday. Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday... Primarily VFR TUE NGT-THU with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Deal/SLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.