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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS
FOR OUR AREA WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS