Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301142 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 642 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW TODAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 639 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SNOW AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WINDS IN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY ALREADY SHIFTING NORTHWEST. VAD WIND PROFILE AT KCXX SHOWING VEERING WIND PROFILE FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW. CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW STILL LOOKS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHER NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER VT INTO THIS EVENING. . WITH CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 20S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REACH NORTHERN NY WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN VERMONT. ...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID- SATURDAY. NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROUGH WILL SLOW THE LOWS PROGRESSION OUT TO SEA, KEEPING MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HENCE, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE-WISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. 925MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPG WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND ONSET OF CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AS IT WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD, FALLING COLDER THAN -20 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AROUND -30 OR COLDER. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ONCE SURVIVING THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND HELP THE COASTAL LOW TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO WARM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE DOUBLE DIGITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER WAVE WILL TRY TO BRING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID-TEENS TO NEAR ZERO. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE THIS LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ON MONDAY. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SURFACE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT OF SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREA REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TUESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITHE SURFACE WIND GUSTS BECOMING AROUND 20 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 21Z-24Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OFF THE MAINE COAST. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY-12Z SATURDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW SHOWERS END. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 12Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/NASH

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