Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290811 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the north country overnight with isolated showers and thunderstorms and will bring cooler and drier air to the region on Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Monday night and will remain through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 132 AM EDT Monday...surface boundary currently approaching the international border with water vapor showing another ribbon of enhanced mid level moisture moving across our cwa. This moisture associated with weak vort...along with boundary could trigger a few additional isolated showers...so have continued to mention 15% to 30% in fcst through 12z this morning. Overall areal coverage will be limited. Temps are still holding in the 70s most locations...but expect a slow drop as cold air advection develops behind boundary with lows ranging from the 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Quiet weather to start the short term on Tuesday with surface high pressure in control of regional conditions. Averaged 925 mb thermal progs support blended model max temps from the mid 70s to lower 80s under sunny/partly sunny skies. Pattern begins to change by Tuesday night, and especially into Wednesday as a seasonably deep H5 upper trough and surface cold front dig southward into the northeast. Better moisture initially off to our northwest Tuesday night, so just token slight/very low chance pops far north late/toward morning. Surface front then progresses south through the area on Wednesday with better moisture advection, low level convergence and modest instability. Thus the idea of solid chance pops for showers/thunder still look on track, especially given expected fropa during diurnal heating maximum. Temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Most of the long term will feature our first modified autumn-like airmass of the season as upper trough digs south into the area and lifts out east and north over time. Scattered showers/storms still a good bet Wednesday evening as front departs east and south, then variable clouds into Thursday with perhaps a few light mountain showers/sprinkles given modified cold pool aloft will be advecting into the region. Temperatures will trend below normal, though remain pleasantly mild with lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking further out, generally quiet and dry weather is expected from Friday onward into next Saturday as modified Canadian airmass builds atop the area. Temperatures will remain pleasantly mild with lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Slowly building heights and warmth then expected from Sunday onward into early next week as upper ridge becomes reestablished across the eastern conus with mean background flow trending south/southwesterly.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Aviation challenge will be ifr potential at slk this morning associated with low cigs. Current surface analysis shows cold front near the international border with isolated showers. Have some vcsh mention in tafs early this morning. Otherwise...as wind shift to the northwest early this morning...some upslope clouds will develop with potential ifr cigs at slk and mvfr at btv/mpv. Have used tempo between 09-12z to highlight ifr cigs at slk with sct mvfr cigs in prevailing group at btv toward sunrise. Winds becoming breezy after 15z with some gusts between 20 and 25 knots anticipated...before dropping off around sunset this evening. Any low clouds will transition into some fair weather cumulus...especially in the mountains...before clear skies develop by evening. Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday... Surface high pres with some patchy valley fog possible at slk/mpv between 08z-12z tuesday. Next surface boundary with scattered showers/storms arrives on weds with some brief mvfr cigs/vis possible in the heavier convective elements. Mainly vfr thursday and friday with developing ridge of high pressure...with early morning fog possible with lifr conditions at mpv/slk between 08-12z. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Taber

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