Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON

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