Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 170422
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1122 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will
result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across
northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with
partial clearing. Surface high pressure will build across the
area Friday bringing drier weather conditions along with periods
of sunshine. Temperatures will remain in the 20s in most areas
on Friday, but we will then see a moderating trend with high
temperatures climbing above average and potentially into the
40s over the weekend. No significant precipitation is expected
through the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1122 PM EST Thursday...Finally starting to see a
weakening of the upslope over northwest Vermont...but some
exists nevertheless. Intensity is definitely decreasing...but
should still see some light snow through the overnight hours.
Looking at another one to two inches before finally coming to an
end toward daybreak. Remainder of forecast remains unchanged.
Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the
region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with
generally dry weather conditions. Low-level clouds will continue
on the decrease during Friday morning, with partly to mostly
sunny skies during the afternoon. NAM model soundings suggest
some mid-upr level clouds moving in from the west Friday night,
so have indicated generally partly cloudy and tranquil
conditions. Ridge axis appears to shift east of our region by
12Z Saturday, so should see light southerly return flow develop
by daybreak Saturday. In terms of temperatures, looking for
highs in the low-mid 20s on Friday, and falling into the teens
for Friday night. With developing light south winds, may see
temperatures begin to rise before daybreak Saturday from the
Champlain Valley wwd.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Models remain in good agreement for
the synoptic pattern during the extended period which
highlights a break in active weather, relatively low chances for
precip and a trend towards warmer than normal temperatures.
Saturday starts with weak surface high pressure over the North
Country along with weak ridging aloft. By the afternoon, a weak
clipper system and shortwave trough approaches, with the surface
low passing well to our north and the trough settling over the
region Saturday night. Overall moisture is lacking with this
system, as well as forcing so the best chances for precipitation
will be across the higher terrain with some orographically
enhanced lift while little to no precip is expected in the
valleys. It`ll feel more like spring this weekend too with mean
925mb temps warming to around 0C or above supporting highs well
into the 40s on Saturday and mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Going into next week, high pressure
becomes reestablished for Monday/Monday night with more
seasonal temperatures expected, but by Tuesday a fast west-
southwest flow develops aloft with temperatures returning to
above normals levels. Generally dry conditions persist through
mid-week with one low pressure system passing well north along
the tip of James Bay Tuesday/Tuesday night, and another just
north of the international border Wednesday night into Thursday.
.AVIATION /04Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00z Saturday...Widespread VFR/MVFR ceilings are
expected through 12z...then clouds gradually decrease in areal
coverage and little in the way of cloud cover is expected after
18z. Still dealing with light snow through about 12z.
Visibilities during this period will be in the VFR/MVFR
range...but there will be periods of IFR through 06z. After
12z...VFR visibilities will exist through the remainder of the
period. Winds will generally be from the west and northwest
through the period...with speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range.
Outlook 00z Saturday through Monday...
00z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...High pressure brings mainly
dry/VFR conditions to the region.
18Z Saturday through 00z Tuesday...Mainly VFR at the TAF
locations. Mid-level trough in west-northwesterly flow will
bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity,
mainly across the mountains.