Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292021 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY...BUT SOMEWHAT CLOUDY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR...MAINLY MID 50S TO MID 60S AS FLOW REMAINS BRISK AND REGION IS IN WARM SECTOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AFTER 18Z...AND MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OUT OF SPC. BETTER DYNAMICS AND STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CAPE VALUES REACH OVER 2000 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION TO END AND JUST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS MENTIONED IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS REGION IS IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FORESEEN BASED ON CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IF SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEASTERNVT...TO AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS PROVIDING PLEASANT/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY...BEFORE MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONCERNING POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE...AND TRACKS STRONGEST UVV ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF - ON THE OTHER HAND - KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY 15-30 POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POP VALUES ACROSS SRN ZONES. CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE TRENDING WARMING (LOW-MID 70S) WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME 3-5SM MIST POSSIBLE AT MPV...MAINLY 08-11Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27 KTS (HIGHEST AT BTV/MSS) BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD AFFECT KMSS AFTER 16Z AND KSLK TOWARD 18Z. OTHERWISE...SKY CONDITION GENERALLY SCT050-100 AWAY FROM ANY DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MAINLY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS (SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRENDING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...BUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR RUT/MPV. AVIATION WX CONDITION PREDICTABILITY LOW AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...NEILES

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