Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271752 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1252 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. POPS NIL. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...DEAL

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