Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170422 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1122 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with partial clearing. Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday bringing drier weather conditions along with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will remain in the 20s in most areas on Friday, but we will then see a moderating trend with high temperatures climbing above average and potentially into the 40s over the weekend. No significant precipitation is expected through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1122 PM EST Thursday...Finally starting to see a weakening of the upslope over northwest Vermont...but some exists nevertheless. Intensity is definitely decreasing...but should still see some light snow through the overnight hours. Looking at another one to two inches before finally coming to an end toward daybreak. Remainder of forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with generally dry weather conditions. Low-level clouds will continue on the decrease during Friday morning, with partly to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon. NAM model soundings suggest some mid-upr level clouds moving in from the west Friday night, so have indicated generally partly cloudy and tranquil conditions. Ridge axis appears to shift east of our region by 12Z Saturday, so should see light southerly return flow develop by daybreak Saturday. In terms of temperatures, looking for highs in the low-mid 20s on Friday, and falling into the teens for Friday night. With developing light south winds, may see temperatures begin to rise before daybreak Saturday from the Champlain Valley wwd.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Models remain in good agreement for the synoptic pattern during the extended period which highlights a break in active weather, relatively low chances for precip and a trend towards warmer than normal temperatures. Saturday starts with weak surface high pressure over the North Country along with weak ridging aloft. By the afternoon, a weak clipper system and shortwave trough approaches, with the surface low passing well to our north and the trough settling over the region Saturday night. Overall moisture is lacking with this system, as well as forcing so the best chances for precipitation will be across the higher terrain with some orographically enhanced lift while little to no precip is expected in the valleys. It`ll feel more like spring this weekend too with mean 925mb temps warming to around 0C or above supporting highs well into the 40s on Saturday and mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Going into next week, high pressure becomes reestablished for Monday/Monday night with more seasonal temperatures expected, but by Tuesday a fast west- southwest flow develops aloft with temperatures returning to above normals levels. Generally dry conditions persist through mid-week with one low pressure system passing well north along the tip of James Bay Tuesday/Tuesday night, and another just north of the international border Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /04Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00z Saturday...Widespread VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected through 12z...then clouds gradually decrease in areal coverage and little in the way of cloud cover is expected after 18z. Still dealing with light snow through about 12z. Visibilities during this period will be in the VFR/MVFR range...but there will be periods of IFR through 06z. After 12z...VFR visibilities will exist through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be from the west and northwest through the period...with speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range. Outlook 00z Saturday through Monday... 00z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...High pressure brings mainly dry/VFR conditions to the region. 18Z Saturday through 00z Tuesday...Mainly VFR at the TAF locations. Mid-level trough in west-northwesterly flow will bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity, mainly across the mountains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Evenson/Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson/Banacos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.