Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232033 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE 09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD- HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45 MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK, FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR. PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES THROUGH. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

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