Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 210740 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION. ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND. THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY (73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY THEREAFTER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR. 12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING. 00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/RJS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.