Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
437 FXUS61 KBTV 271945 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface low pressure system continues to push eastward across Quebec. Scattered showers redevelop Tuesday as surface front moves west to east across our area. Wednesday and Thursday will be drier with ridge of high pressure building south out of Canada and over the North country. Another storm system looks to affect the region on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Drier mid-level air works into the region overnight. With clouds remaining in place across the north country overnight minimum temperatures will be mild and not dropping too far, mid 30s to around 40 from the Champlain valley westward, with 30s east of the Greens. We may have a few showers here and there but bulk of precipitation has now moved East of the area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some drizzle or areas of patchy fog with lower levels remaining very saturated.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday....Surface high pressure will build southward from James Bay Tuesday. Low pressure system tracks eastward across Quebec dragging a surface front with it across our CWA. Will have some scattered light rain showers for Tuesday into the first part of Tuesday night. Region will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of aforementioned front early in the day and max temperatures will reach the upper 40s to around 50. Strongest shortwave energy stays well south of our CWA Tuesday, therefore only scattered showers expected with the frontal passage in the afternoon into Tuesday evening. Showers will taper off Tuesday overnight, with possible change over to snow showers with colder air moving into the region on Northwesterly flow. On Wed upper level trough pushes across our area with surface high pressure building south and east from central Ontario. Will continue to be some scattered light rain or snow showers, mainly across the northern high terrain. Wednesday will be about ten degrees cooler than Tue and back below seasonal normals once again. Looks to be a breezy day as well with cold air advection and northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Partly sunny skies will develop during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday night any remaining precipitation comes to an end with large ridge of surface high pressure ridging into the north country. Wednesday night will be near normal, temps dropping back into the 20s with some teens in the Dacks.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering northern mountain snow showers end Wednesday evening with dry weather expected Thursday into Thursday night as southern nose of Canadian high pressure traverses the area. Low temperatures on both nights mainly in the 20s with a few upper teens in favored northern mountain hollows. Highs on Thursday similar to Wednesday - upper 30s to mid 40s. Next precipitation maker then arrives by Friday into Friday night as additional energy tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area. Global models have trended toward taking this system further northward than prior indications and as such have raised precipitation probabilities accordingly - especially during the Friday afternoon to Saturday morning time frame. Boundary layer thermal profiles suggest this will mainly fall as a rain event for lower elevations, though with 850 mb temps hovering around 0C some mix with snow or even all snow may occur across the higher terrain above 1500 feet or so, especially Friday night when a mix may even reach the valley floors. Time will tell. By Saturday steadier precipitation exits east during the morning hours as skies remain variably cloudy. Temperatures average near late March norms with highs Friday/Saturday generally in the lower to mid 40s with Friday night lows from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Looking further out a gradual drying trend is expected by the latter half of the weekend as surface high pressure is bridged aloft by modest upper troughing. Temperatures should remain within 5 degrees of typical early April values with highs ranging through the 40s and overnight lows from 25 to 35. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Model guidance showing plenty of deep layer moisture will be over the region through the period, with mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings expected through 18Z Tuesday. Guidance also showing a low level temperature inversion across the region overnight, so expecting areas of drizzle and mist to develop overnight as well. Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in scattered rain showers Tuesday, then scattered rain/snow showers Tuesday night. 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR, with some scattered rain or snow showers mainly over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. 12Z Thursday through 18Z Friday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over Vermont and northern New York. 18Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.