Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310209 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1009 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST 20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD, BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED. DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS FOLLOW... SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT 0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS, DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL. NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS 30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F. SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS) WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT). && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. 18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH

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