Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310544 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 144 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3" IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25 KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT BTV. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS SHOWERS/SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE CLOUDS. EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH DRIER AIR BUT AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NIGHT-SAT TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE M-U70S TO L80S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW MARINE...WFO BTV

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