-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 140534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND
AREAS SOUTH. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS ON TUESDAY THOUGH MOSTLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRECIP HAS EXITED THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. STILL SOME BKN-OVC SKIES
ACROSS THE DACKS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST VERMONT BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD
SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT
FAR BEHIND. IT`LL BE MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST OF VERMONT BY MORNING. PWATS WILL FALL TO 1-1.5
INCHES...WITH HIGHEST PWATS BEING OVER SERN VT. THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS AS DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR LAKE HURON LIFTS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. SOME DEBATE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THE FRONT WILL LIFT...BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
MUCH LESS CLOUDY SKY WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...FROM ADKS ACROSS THE
SRN CPV AND CENTRAL VT. THIS AFFECTS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...EDGING 1000
J/KG OF CAPE INTO SRN/CENTRAL VT WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC OF THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE MID AFTERNOON.
BUT NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S-L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THINGS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS SFC
TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD. COME
EARLY TUESDAY...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE STREWN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOISTENING S/SW FLOW.
PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NW...DELAYING
THE APPROACH OF 250MB JET TIL TUESDAY NGT. AT LOWER
LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
MOVING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS VT AS IT WILL HAVE
THE BEST INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BEING SLOW TO
ARRIVE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THREAT OF SVR LOW. BUT WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AROUND 10 KM WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES IN AREAS MAY
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH VT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT
PRECIP TO SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS WELL. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
THIS COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE TAF SITES
AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR FOG
AT SLK/MPV...MAINLY 09-12Z. VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH SKC-
SCT050. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC080-100.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS
06-12Z THURSDAY AND AGAIN 06-12Z FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS