Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252025 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 425 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue across the region throughout the entire week with a daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall may trend heavy, especially later in the week as a more humid airmass moves into the area. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal early summer norms through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered showers and a few heavier thunderstorms continue across the area this afternoon in advance of of a vigorous shortwave to the immediate north of Lake Ontario. A few of the cells have produced small hail and gusty winds, which is not surprising given relatively low freezing levels near 9 kft and a near dry adiabatic sub-cloud layer. The shortwave feature will progress bodily east across the northern half of the area this evening when best threat of scattered showers/isolated storms occur, then exit east overnight with coverage waning. Lows a blend of available guidance showing values mainly in the 50s. More active weather still on tap for Monday as yet another strong shortwave drops into the central Great Lakes area. Low level surface trough boundary connecting today`s shortwave (then across the Canadian Maritimes) to the Great Lakes feature will serve as focus for low level convergence and additional showers/isolated thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon. Best coverage to occur during peak heating hours of noon to 6 pm or so before covering slowly wanes into the evening and especially overnight hours. Low to mid level lapse rates are poorer than today and with cooler boundary layer temperatures per 925-850 mb progs updraft strength in convective cores will not be as robust. Thus no strong to severe storms are expected. Highs tomorrow mainly from the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows Monday night from 45 to 55. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday. Lots of clouds will keep temperatures mild on Tuesday, highs around five to ten degrees below normal. Temperatures aloft are even cooler which results in a bit of instability, so have mentioned showers as well as thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Cold air aloft means low wet bulb zero heights so won`t be surprised to see some small hail in any deeper convection. Have chance for showers mentioned early Tuesday evening across our Northeastern zones but chances will lessen overnight with upper level and surface ridging building into the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...The extended portion of the forecast looks wet and near normal for temperatures. It will not be cloudy and rainy continuously, but weather pattern is active and there will be several rounds of precipitation, tough to find a dry day in the next week. Upper level flow is progressive and fast with west to east flow. Shortwaves passing through upper level flow will enhance chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still tough to time these shortwaves, and have continued with previous forecaster thinking of a model blend from day to day. GFS and ECMWF continue to show a large upper level trough developing to our west on Saturday, deep southerly flow develops and brings some very moist air to the region. Temperatures will start out slightly below seasonal normals then trend back towards seasonal normals towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR through the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening. Shortwave pushing across the area this evening driving scattered showers and thunderstorm activity across the area. No severe weather is expected though a few of the more robust storms could produce small hail, gusty winds into the 30-40 mph range, enhanced low level turbulence and brief MVFR/IFR conds. Coverage of storms to wane this evening and overnight with loss of surface heating and as shortwave exits east. Winds west to southwesterly 6 to 12 kts and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range through sunset, abating to light overnight. After 12Z Monday VFR continues, but with an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms once again as we approach the 18Z time frame. Given this will occur toward the very end of this forecast cycle have omitted specific mention at this point. Winds continue light west/southwesterly 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.