Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230203 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND 60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

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