Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210507 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1207 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD CHRISTMAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN. BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER THAT POINT. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555 PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO

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