Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210000 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF MARINE...JMG

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