-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 131742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR OR BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT THURSDAY...WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SNOW HAS
BECOME LIGHT AND VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2-3SM OR GREATER IN
MOST AREAS. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN
NY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTN. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS (ANTICIPATE A RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMP AT
BTV TODAY).

AT BTV...CURRENTLY 5TH LARGEST SNOWSTORM FOR MARCH ON RECORD AND
12TH LARGEST ALL-TIME (BASED ON CURRENT 18.6" SNOWFALL AMT). RECORDS
DATE BACK TO 1883. PLEASE REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FOR
LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH WITH LOW TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. HAVE CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CLOSEST TO THE LOW CENTER. CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY FEATURE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...THOUGH WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT QUITE FEEL LIKE SPRING
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER SINGE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH TEMPS RISING ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND ZERO
TO 10 BELOW. DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND SNOW OR EVEN
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY FROM NW
TO SE...WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS...RESULTING IN VARYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
KSLK...KMPV AND KBTV SEEING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME -SHSN.
CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE...WITH CPV CONTINUING
CONVERGENT LLVL N//NW FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER SUNSET. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...KEEPING WINDS AT 5-10KTS OVRNGT AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CLIPPER TYPE
LOW APPROACHING FROM SRN ONTARIO...WINDS PICK UP IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTN TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN PSBL FOR HIGHER
TRRN AND KMSS/AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MID-LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS FRIDAY PM.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...20-25 KTS AT TIMES. ISOLD -SHSN...MAINLY FOR
KSLK/KMPV.

SUNDAY NGT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM