-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 100251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
951 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING COLDER. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF SNOW
SQUALL. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 951 PM EST MONDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SOME PESKY LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND
EXTRA MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE GREAT LAKES ACT IN CONCERT. UPPER
FLOW IS ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO IT WILL
TAKE ITS GOOD TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER I
STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AS COLDER CP
AIRMASS SLOWLY BLEEDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. READINGS RANGING FROM 22 TO
29 BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. STILL BANKING ON LIGHT SNOW AND/OR MIXED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
NRN NY/NRN VT COUNTIES THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM TIME FRAME.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS NEGLIGIBLE...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DACKS UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE FROM LK ONTARIO
MOISTURE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOWNWIND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STAYED NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING COLDER THRU
THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS BRINGING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONLY 1-2" OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT MAY FALL QUICKLY WITH SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. HIGHS
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30F...AND ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FOR WEDNESDAY. NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AS
THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 510 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND
ARCTIC FRONT. CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THEREFORE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STORM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUICKER THAN GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY THE STORM OVER THE WEEKEND
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TO NEAR ART AND WILL MOVE ACROSS PBG AND THE VT
TAFS THRU 03-04Z. A BRIEF 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MVFR -SN AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT FRONT WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE TAFS DRY
UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR -SN AT
SLK ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. I`VE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO
IFR -SN AT SLK AS VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE/OSCILLATE
CONSIDERABLY. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR AROUND 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST AT MSS).

FOR TUESDAY EXPECT ANY LINGERING -SHSN TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SLK AND PERHAPS MPV AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BKN/OVC
VFR RANGE WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 7-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-25 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING AND TO
WEST TOMORROW MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ON OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JN/LOCONTO
MARINE...WFO BTV