Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240723 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving offshore south of New England will allow for light south winds today with temperatures moderating into the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs. Humidity will also increase to moderate levels. A weak frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes will bring the next chance of showers Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Once this frontal system passes to the east, will see a return to pleasantly mild and dry weather late Friday and through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong high pressure centered near the NJ coast this morning will provide another pleasant day to the North Country. 850mb temps moderate to +16C this afternoon as center of ridge shifts eastward south of New England, and S-SSW winds allow for low-level warm advection. Should yield afternoon highs in the mid-upr 80s most sections. Will also see low level moisture increase a bit, with 2-m dewpoints rising into the low 60s by late afternoon. Broad subsidence will keep skies mostly sunny with just a few passing thin cirrus and shallow cumulus clouds dotting the higher terrain. Mid-level ridge breaks down a bit overnight as shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection across MN/WI shifts eastward. Should yield an increase in mid-level clouds from west to east late tonight, with a slight chance of a shower across nrn NY toward daybreak (20 PoP). Continued south-southwest boundary layer flow will keep temps warm overnight, with early AM lows in the mid 60s for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. More sheltered locations will see lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 301 AM EDT Wednesday...Timing of energy and associated moisture continues to be the challenge in developing fast westerly flow aloft. Models continue to show system coming in several different pieces...making the exact window for predicting the highest pops difficult. Initial 5h vort over the northern plains will shear out in flow aloft and weaken across our region on Thursday morning. This energy...along with increasing 850 to 500mb moisture will result in chance pops across northern NY. This feature will quick exit our region by 18z...before more energy and moisture arrives around 00z Friday. Higher surface dewpoints from earlier showers...along with surface heating will produce surface based CAPE values up to 800 J/kg across the Saint Lawrence Valley around 00z. Have mention chance of thunder with likely rain showers for the combination of instability and dynamics. The actual surface boundary crosses northern NY overnight and is located in the Champlain Valley on Friday morning. Will continue to mention chc to likely pops overnight Thursday into Friday...before tapering from west to east by Friday afternoon. I realize we will have 12 to 18 hours of pops for only a 2 to 4 hour window of precip...but timing of multiple short waves in fast flow aloft is difficult. PWS surge to 1.75 ahead of boundary...supporting some isolated heavier downpours...especially in the stronger convective elements over northern NY/VT on Thursday evening/night. Still thinking qpf will range between 0.25 and 0.75...with some downslope on breezy 850mb southwest winds of 35 to 40 knots. These winds and pressure analysis support some localized surface gusts to 30 mph across the saint lawrence and champlain valleys on Thursday afternoon/evening. These winds shift to the west and much drier air arrives on friday afternoon...with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Progged 925mb temps between 22-24c...support highs well into the 80s on Thursday...with maybe a spot 90 in the warmer valleys...expecting clouds to limit surface heating some. Temps will be slightly cooler on Friday...behind boundary.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 301 AM EDT Wednesday...1026mb surface high pressure will build into the north country on saturday and continue for sunday. This will result in plenty of sunshine with mild days and cool nights. Given the very dry profiles...expect large diurnal swings in the temps from mid 40s to lower 50s to mid 70s to lower 80s. Next system in the fast westerly flow aloft approaches our region late sunday night into monday with a chance of showers. Progged instability parameters are minimal so no mention of thunder thru 16z monday. Better surface heating and weak surface boundary on Monday afternoon may produce a few rumbles of thunder. Will mention chance pops with best chance of thunder based on surface based cape values of 500 j/kg will be over central/eastern vt. Progged 850mb temps range between 12-14c for monday into tuesday...supporting highs mid 70s mountains to lower 80s valleys with lows mainly in the 50s to lower 60s depending upon elevation.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period with SKC- SCT250. May see intervals of MVFR 3-4SM BR MPV 08-11Z, but thin high clouds and 3kt AGL winds 20-25kts should create enough mixing to preclude any dense fog formation early this morning. Light and variable winds early this morning, becoming south 6-10kt during the daylight hours, and locally SE with a lake breeze at PBG. Will see increasing mid-clouds (SCT-BKN100) toward daybreak Thursday with a slight chance of a shower at KMSS toward 12Z Thu. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday... 12Z Thu - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered showers continuing into Thursday night. May see morning -SHRA central/ern VT Friday morning, otherwise generally drying out Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds. 00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 0130 AM EDT Wednesday...The AWOS (automated weather observing system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT) remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. There remains no estimated return to service at this time. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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