Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201908 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE SREF OUTPUT. BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN. STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE VERY QUICKLY. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND). NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY. I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF. STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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