Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040543 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A RETURN OF A DRIER AIRMASS AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1247 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 50S WITH SOME 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CLIMO-FAVORED LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE RIDGE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AFTER MARGINALLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT TODAY. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE QUIET WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EVEN SO TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. FRIDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL EVENING OF LIGHT MIST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WE ARE IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FAVOURED FOG TIME PERIOD. SATURDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO DRIFT SOUTH AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S. IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER AS DEW POINTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH FEATURES THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C...SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 80F MTN TOWNS TO M/U 80S WARMER VALLEYS. ON MONDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT TRAVELS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WARMER VALLEYS AND LOWER 80S MTNS. HAVE NOTED SOME DIFFERENCE WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF ON TUES ACROSS OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS BETTER RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS STRONG RIDGE FIRM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...THINKING SYSTEM FOR TUES WILL DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN BEFORE HAVING MUCH IMPACT OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDS/THURS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...BETTER DYNAMICS WITH 5H VORTICITY WILL BE LIFTING NW OF OUR CWA...WITH JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. GIVEN PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS AND SYSTEM LIFTING NW...INSTEAD OF DIGGING SE...QPF WINDOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE SHORT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS WEDS INTO THURS...WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT SOME HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT LIFR/VLIFR AT KSLK/KMPV. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 09Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSLK, BUT TURN LIGHTER TOWARDS 10-11Z. THUS, INSTEAD OF A FORECAST FOR PREVAILING LIFR, I`VE LEFT IT AS A TEMPO. AT KMPV WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO VLIFR IS EXPECTED FROM 08-13Z. AFTER 13Z, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FOR THE DAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VLIFR/IFR FG/BR LIKELY AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING. 00Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF

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