Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250810 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 410 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will slowly pull east of the area today with any morning showers ending and skies trending mainly clear by late afternoon or early evening. After high pressure brings a short window of fair and dry weather on Wednesday, shower and thunder chances return by Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak front crosses the area. Dry conditions then return by next weekend as surface high pressure builds across the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Upper low pressure and accompanying longwave trough are in the process of crossing the forecast area early this morning. These features will continue to trundle slowly east and gradually lose influence on area weather conditions by later in the day as deep layer high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states. Widespread shower activity across central and northern counties this morning will come to an end from noon onward with cloudy skies gradually trending partly sunny for most areas by late afternoon or early evening. High temperatures a bit tricky for areas that receive late day sun, though blended guidance in the 60s to locally near 70 north and west appears reasonable at this point. Winds trending light north to northeasterly. High pressure at the surface and aloft then bridges across the region tonight into Wednesday with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. Given recent rains patchy br/fg will be a good bet in climatologically favored locales where moist soil conditions will act to effectively saturate near-surface layers. Lows to range from 45 to 55 in most spots overnight with corresponding highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...On Wednesday night will have increase of clouds overnight with winds becoming southerly ahead of next surface boundary. Have chance for some showers mentioned during the second half of the overnight, with best low level RH fields and forcing taking a while to reach our CWA. Pretty decent upper level shortwave will also be crossing our area at that time. Thursday will be a better chance for precipitation widespread across our forecast area as mid/upper level trough approaches our area along with surface cold front. At this time models indicate this frontal passage happening early in the day Thursday which will limit amount of instability available. Models continue to indicate some favorable deep layer shear in the fast mid level flow, but lack of strong shortwave energy. May be potential for some heavy rain though, with pwats reaching almost 2". Have continued with mention of chance thunder for Thursday afternoon with slight chance in the morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Upper level trough continues to influence our forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Have pops decreasing from likely to chance and pretty much ending by late Friday. Cooler and drier air will return from Friday night through the beginning of next week. Surface high pressure will ridge into the region. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal normals.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions through the 12Z time frame with areas of scattered showers and patchy -dz/br. Occasional VFR at KBTV and KPBG during this period. Winds generally light east to southeasterly, though stronger northeasterly around 15 kts at KMSS. After 12Z showers end leaving bkn/ovc VFR/MVFR cigs which trend sct/skc in the 18-00Z time frame. Winds back to light north/northeasterly 5 to 10 knots during this period. After 00Z, skc with near calm winds expected. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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