Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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967 FXUS61 KBTV 050256 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1056 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MODERATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
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AS OF 1056 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE VORT THAT IS SLIDING UP THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE CU FIELD THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT VORTICITY MAXIMA AND GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARDS SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SO THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK HOWEVER NOT FOR VERMONT. INTO THE EVENING, MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT HOWEVER THE ENERGY SOURCE FOR PRECIP DROPS OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WITH THE TREND SHOWING UP IN THE HIRES GUIDANCE I DID GO AHEAD AND RELAX THE POPS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK LATE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND DRAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY MAY. TOMORROW EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE. THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW-NE ACROSS NY AND THROUGH NRN VT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH 03-04Z THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/PBG/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES SLK/MPV. WILL ALSO SEE HIR TRRN OBSCD THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SECONDARY LOW FORMING EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL GENERALLY REFOCUS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N-NE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY (5-10KTS...LOCALLY 12G18KTS AT MSS AFT 14Z THURSDAY). OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL

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