Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170826 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 426 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH SUNSHINE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND +6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICAL IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KSLK/KMPV WITH BRIEF PERIODS POSSIBLE AT KPBG/KRUT. AFTER 12Z...MID CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN AT 05-15KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH BRIEF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THOUGH CHANCES EXIST FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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