Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 231123
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016
Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high
pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in
temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England later
in the week, warmer and more humid conditions will bring chances
for showers and possible thunderstorms to the area Thursday into
Thursday night. A few lingering showers are possible on Friday.
However, generally looking for a return to dry conditions later
Friday and through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds
back across southeastern Canada and New England.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 718 AM EDT Tuesday...Synoptically quiescent conditions
with moderately strong surface high pressure centered this
morning across the srn tier of NY and PA. Early AM valley fog will
dissipate between 12-13Z, leaving generally sunny conditions.
Should see a few-sct high level clouds associated with shortwave
trough passing well to the north across central Quebec this
afternoon. A chilly start with min temperatures generally mid 40s
to lower 50s early this AM...and as low as 37F at SLK around 10Z
As the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of the North Country
this afternoon, winds will become SW to WSW. Winds generally at
or below 10 mph, but slightly stronger gradient flow across nrn NY
will bring sw winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across the St.
Lawrence Valley and nrn Adirondacks 15Z-23Z. Will see some
moderation in temperatures compared to Monday. Afternoon maximum
temperatures expected to reach 75-80F in most locations. High
pressure drifts east of NJ tonight with continued quiet wx conditions
across the North Country. Good radiative cooling setup will bring
redevelopment of fog in climatologically favored river valleys
05-12Z Wednesday. PoPs NIL today and tonight.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level ridge builds ahead of
short wave energy on weds with south to southwest winds. Progged
850mb temps climb to 16c with 925mb temps near 22c...adding 15 to
850mb or 10 to 925mb supports highs well into the 80s with a few
readings near 90 for weds. Have bumped a degree or two above
superblend guidance. dewpoints will slowly increase...especially
by thursday...as southerly winds continue ahead of boundary. For
thursday...initial pre-frontal trough and associated 5h vort moves
quickly from west to east across our region between 18z-00z. This
will produce some showers with maybe an embedded rumble of
thunder. Best low level instability with cape values approaching
500 j/kg is located over the saint lawrence valley. Better 850 to
500 mb moisture arrives around 06z friday...along with pws surging
to 1.75 inches ahead of well defined cold front. This low level
convergence...along with stronger upper level forcing from digging
mid/upper level trof will produce a band of showers with embedded
storms on thursday night. Given the timing of boundary and lack
of instability...not expecting any strong storms...but some
localized downpours are possible. Convective elements will move
fast given expected storm motions of 30 to 40 knots. QPF will
generally be between 0.25 and 0.75 through thursday night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface boundary will quickly move
across our eastern section on friday morning...with any lingering
showers ending by mid morning. Soundings show deep dry layer
developing by midday friday...with increasing amounts of sunshine
expected. Still cannot rule out a stray shower across the
mountains and northeast vt on friday afternoon. Forecast area
will be under low level cold air advection on friday with progged
850mb temps falling to 12c by 00z saturday. Given nw to se
gradient thinking temps will range from the mid 70s northern ny to
l/m 80s near vsf...associated with northwest downslope flow. Weak
surface high with dry and cool conditions on saturday. By
sunday...system shifts into eastern maine and southerly return
flow ahead of next short wave energy and moisture develops.
Temperatures will warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s with
our next chance for showers arriving on sunday night into monday.
Once again system will be quick moving with only a 3 to 6 hour
window of precip expected...before dry air associated with high
pressure builds. Temps will trend several degrees above normal
during the period with lows mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s
and highs mid 70s to lower 80s.
.AVIATION /11Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering BR at SLK dissipates between
12-13Z and then generally SKC/few250 areawide. Winds becoming
southwest around 4-8 kts, except around 10kts at MSS/SLK with
gusts to 16-18kts at times thru the daylight hrs. May see
localized SE winds at PBG 7-10kt range. Clear again tonight with
high pressure in place with light winds controlled by local
orographic influences. Will likley see LIFR fog redevelop at
SLK/MPV 06-12Z Wednesday period.
NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of
disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of
amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has
been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically
transmitted, we will lift that restriction.
Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...
12Z Wed - 18Z Thurs...VFR under high pressure. Only exception
will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z Wednesday night.
18Z Thurs - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and
thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers continuing into Thursday night. Generally drying out
Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds.
00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure.
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As of 1051 PM EDT Monday...The AWOS (automated weather observing
system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT)
remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a
new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. The
FAA has also told us that they have no estimate at this time as to
when the KRUT AWOS will be returned to service.