Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160804 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 304 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Generally light precipitation is expected today with light rain exiting our southern areas this morning. Colder air starts to filter into the region later this morning and with a low level northwest flow pattern developing some light snow is expected to develop... mainly over the mountains. Any snow accumulations will range from a dusting to two inches. High pressure builds in tonight for clearing skies and dry weather...which continues into Saturday. A low pressure system passes to our south Saturday night into Sunday...but will still bring some light snow to the area...especially over southern areas. A warmer and wetter weather pattern is expected for the first half of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 304 AM EST Friday...Light rain exists over the southern half of Vermont early this morning and this activity continues to move eastward...exiting the area by mid-morning. Dry weather elsewhere across our area early this morning with an extensive cloud shield noted on satellite keeping cloudy skies over the entire area. Of note early this morning is the fact that the flow aloft remains from the southwest and this is keeping the colder air well north of the region. Thus have delayed the colder air moving into the region until after 12z and more likely later this morning. The cold air will arrive on low level northwest flow and this will enhance some upslope conditions over the area...especially over the northern Adirondacks...the west slopes of the Green Mountains...and parts of north central and northeast Vermont. The greatest concentration of the upslope snow will be around midday...but then drier air moving in will start to decrease the areal coverage later this afternoon with all snow coming to an end by this evening. Any snow accumulations will generally be in the dusting to two inch range and again be most concentrated in the mountains. High temperatures will occur in the 12z to 15z time period before temperatures fall everywhere for the remainder of the day. Clearing skies tonight will develop as high pressure builds into the region. Lows tonight will be in the single digits and lower teens. Saturday is shaping up to be a real nice day with dry weather...a good deal of sunshine...and highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 304 AM EST Friday...Little overall change from the previous forecast thinking for the latter half of the weekend as the North Country will be in-between one area of low pressure passing southeast of the benchmark, and another well north of the region passing south of James Bay. It does appear though that there may be enough moisture thrown northward from the coastal low to work with ascent along the tail of a passing cold front extending from the northern low to produce some light snow over portions of the forecast area Saturday night, with some orographic snow showers across the higher terrain early Sunday morning. Overall, the pattern doesn`t favor any significant snowfall, with the best chance at any accumulations being across central/southern Vermont where perhaps up to 2-3" is possible, and northward a dusting to maybe an inch. A brief area of high pressure begins to build into the region by mid- day Sunday with any lingering mountain snow showers dissipating and some breaks of sunshine developing for the afternoon. Lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will be mild in the teens to mid 20s, and Sunday will be the first of several days above normal with highs in the mid 30s to around 40.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 304 AM EST Friday...Big pattern change is on the horizon for next week with little doubt in this forecasters mind that warmer weather is on it`s way with potentially some hydro concerns to pay attention to. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the persistent ridge that has dominated much of the winter over the west coast finally breaks down and troughing develops there while an anomalously strong ridge builds over the western Atlantic. Anticyclonic return flow around the building Bermuda high will push the polar jet well north of the region Monday through Wednesday with strong southwesterly low/mid level flow ushering in a warm, moist GOMEX airmass over much of the eastern CONUS. While it appears there`s little uncertainty that temperatures will be well above normal for the period, questions remain on how far north the surface boundary sets up and where the resulting QPF develops. Have stuck close to the GFS solution for now which has performed quite well this winter and so far has been consistent in regards to the upcoming pattern. That said, the forecast features very mild temperatures for late February with highs Monday warming firmly into the 40s, and further into the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday with periods of rain from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on model trends over the past 2 days, the potential for ice jam breakups and rapid snowmelt certainly needs to be watched mid-week, but with total QPF over the 48hr period looking to be an inch or less, feel the threat will be limited in coverage and we wouldn`t be looking at any similar to the problems we experienced during the middle of last month. By Wednesday afternoon, the surface boundary finally looks to drop southward as a cold front with high pressure building into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. Will likely see some scattered precipitation along the fropa Wednesday afternoon and evening before the high builds into the forecast area for Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Fog has had a hard time developing early this morning and it looks like enough cloud cover and mixing will limit fog. Thus looking at VFR visibilities for much of the period...but there will be some locations that see MVFR visibilities in precipitation through about 00z. Ceilings will also be in the VFR and MVFR categories through about 00z with a brief periods of IFR ceilings. A cold front will move across the area from northwest to southeast this morning and turn the winds to the northwest and gusty in the 10 to 20 knot range through about 00z before winds taper off. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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