Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 100218 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 918 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
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AS OF 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2". IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN -20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER 850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND -24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM -5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND -30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM - 25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MORE LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS NY WITH KSLK/KMSS VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z AND POSSIBLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW

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