Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 120725 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. THE PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 114 AM EDT SATURDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH FILTER MOONSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 353 PM EDT FRIDAY...IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY...THEN YOU SHOULD FIND NO FAULT IN SATURDAYS WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY. ANALYSIS OF KEY PARAMETERS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION SHOWS THE WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ENHANCE THE SPEED SHEAR OVER THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE SPEED SHEAR FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. PLUS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL BE A BIT LIMITED. AGAIN WE WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST NOT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 323 AM EDT SATURDAY...LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE T-STORMS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TREND/RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A RELATIVELY DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EITHER LATE TUESDAY (00Z GFS SOLUTION) OR WEDNESDAY (SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION). A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BAND OF STRONG SWLY FLOW AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL FOR INSOLATIONAL HEATING...BUT BASED ON 00Z ECMWF 850MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C AND LOW-MID 60S 2-METER DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PRESUMING PARTLY SUNNY INTERVALS EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY (AROUND 60%) WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN COMBINATION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE/LL JUST NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF INSTABILITY FIELDS AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...SHOULD BE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. THE 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND +9C ON WEDNESDAY AND ONLY RECOVER TO +10 TO +11C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FOG AT SLK/MPV 07-11Z THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED AT PBG WITH SE WINDS 5-8 KTS DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OWING TO DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN HUMID AIR MASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME). && .MARINE... NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...EVENSON

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