Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260536 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 136 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME 35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA, RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES. THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT. FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD 15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE WITH FRONT. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS. RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY, THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY. TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF. FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...HANSON EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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