Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260832 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 432 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5" AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OR VIS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 09Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. WILL CONT TO MENTION LLWS AT MSS THROUGH THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT THREAT FOR SHEAR IS ENDING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTS TODAY BTWN 18 AND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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