Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261150 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 750 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. WHILE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND FOR THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH VIGOROUS AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AT 11Z. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING 12-18Z IMPACTING ESPECIALLY THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WAS QUITE DRY...WITH LIGHT N-NE FLOW IN FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING LOW PBL DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND FRONTAL-SCALE DYNAMICS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS RESULTED IN RAPID SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ALONG WITH EXCELLENT WET-BULB COOLING AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGAN. ANTICIPATE ONE MORE REGION OF STRONG UVV WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND ASSOCIATED WET SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WET SNOWFLAKES BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS (PERHAPS A SLUSHY COATING IN GRASSY AREAS). HOWEVER...STRONG ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL WITH POTL FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GREEN MTNS ABOVE 1000` THRU 18Z. SHOULD SEE A FEW 4" SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR GREEN MTN SUMMITS FROM WAITSFIELD DOWN TO KILLINGTON BY THE TIME THINGS WIND DOWN AT 18Z. GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR POPULATED SECTIONS BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS...INCLUDING SOME SLUSHY ACCUM POSSIBLE ON I-89 BROOKFIELD AREA WITH ROAD SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOTAL QPF AMTS 0.35-0.45" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN 6-9 HR PERIOD WITH GOOD UVV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SRN VT MID MORNING HRS. QPF AROUND 0.25" FOR BTV AND 0.10" OR LESS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER WITH STRONG PRECIP GRADIENT EXPECTED ON NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD. 2-M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 30S...BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S MID-LATE AFTN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SEWD FROM NRN ONTARIO. CHILLY AIR MASS FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOW-MID 20S NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND UPR 20S FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EMBEDDED VORT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COME THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST. AS THIS TROUGH EXITS, SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE FROM KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THIS FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW WILL TRANSLATE OFFSHORE FRIDAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY OVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON NW FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DRYING OUT FINE DEAD FUELS. BUT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT LESS THAN 12KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS LESS THAN 20KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS DISPLAYING LOTS OF DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR IN WET SNOW MAINLY 12-18Z WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. LESSER POTL FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTL BORDER...SO MSS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT. SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT MPV...AND 1-3" SNOWFALL AT SLK CAUSING SOME IMPACT FOR GROUND OPERATIONS THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...BUT MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO WET SNOW THRU 17-18Z...MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES AT ONSET AND AGAIN LATE MORNING. IMPROVING BACK TO VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES MID AND LATE AFTN AND GENERALLY SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N-NE AT 10KTS OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS

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