Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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315 FXUS61 KBTV 241120 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will pass southward across the North Country early this morning, bringing a northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures. Skies will trend mostly sunny by late morning or early afternoon. After a quiet night, low pressure moving northward from the Carolinas will bring numerous showers across our region on Tuesday, and across eastern and south- central Vermont on Wednesday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Thursday with high pressure in place aloft. A surface cold front will bring the potential for more showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 711 AM EDT Monday...Minor update in the near term to blend in hi resolution models to sky cover for first few hours of forecast period. Otherwise no changes needed, previous forecast in good shape. Previous discussion...Relatively quiet weather today. A cold front washing out near the intl border has brought a light nly wind shift across far nrn NY and far nrn VT early this morning. Will see a band of mainly mid-level clouds associated with this boundary early this morning, but weak frontal convergence and dry low-level air mass should preclude any frontal precipitation. Will see increasing sun late morning/afternoon, but north winds and low-level CAA will keep temperatures cooler than Sunday. Looking for afternoon highs in the mid-upr 50s across nrn sections, and low-mid 60s across the valleys of s-central VT as cold front dissipates while tracking south. Continued quiet tonight. Skies start mostly clear, but will see increasing cloud cover from south- north associated with slow-moving closed low over the Carolinas. This system will eventually spread light showers nwd across our region during the daylight hrs Tuesday. Marine modified low- level air will advect into ern VT, so will see chilly temps on Tuesday with a low overcast; highs generally upr 40s to lower 50s east of the Green Mtns. Looking for mainly mid-upr 50s elsewhere...perhaps near 60F for highs Tuesday in the St. Lawrence Valley. Total rainfall amts on Tuesday generally expected 0.10-0.20", highest across s-central/ern VT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Moisture from a low pressure area at the surface and aloft along the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night will continue to spread northward into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thus, will keep in a chance of rain showers for Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Expecting some cloud cover to linger across the region Wednesday night. A weak upper ridge will be over the region on Thursday, so have gone with partly sunny skies. Will bring in a chance of showers late Thursday night. These showers will continue into Friday. Expecting a mainly dry day on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds south from Canada. Models showing a frontal system south of the region Saturday night with ECMWF and GFS showing some overrunning rain showers moving into the region north of the warm front for Saturday night and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday...A dry cold front shifted winds around to northerly early this morning with VFR ceilings mainly in the north through mid morning. MVFR cigs observed at KMSS this morning will persist to 15z. Skies to clear in the afternoon, then more vfr cigs move in from the south toward the end of the TAF period in advance of low moving up the Atlantic coast. Winds N-NE at 5-10kts. Will see localized sely winds at KRUT after 01Z Tuesday associated with local orographic effects. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Hanson

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