Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250822 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AREA WIDE. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN VERMONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 957 PM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS TIME. THUS...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FURTHER UPSTREAM COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A WELL DEFINED FINE LINE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE SOUTH TO EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KNOTS WITH THIS FINE LINE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECTING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEARBY AND SOUTHWEST CHANNELING IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW STEEP INVERSION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WASHES OUT AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAY CHRISTMAS DAY AND DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY ON NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LESSER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS INTO WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...WARNING FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEST CLINTON COUNTY AND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION COOLING THINGS OFF IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHILE DOWNSLOPE MAY CONTINUE SOME WARMTH IN WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW DEPARTS TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WILL CREATE GENERALLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH NEAR NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. UPSHOT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS DAY COLD FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 322 AM EST THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE IN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE, COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER, AS MAXES START AT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND COOL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL MAX SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY COOL BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS, PERIODS OF MIST, AND LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR START THE PERIOD. THEN A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTY WINDS/ACCOMPANYING TURBULENCE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 40-50KT IS ABOVE A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 08Z AT KMSS/KSLK, 09Z/10Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 11Z-13Z AT KMPV/KRUT. THIS MEANS STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-45KTS IN NORTHERN NY AND 25-35KTS ACROSS VERMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. WHILE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH PRECIPITATION MORE FAVORED AT MPV AND SLK BEHIND FRONT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS EVENING/NIGHT. BUT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY-12Z FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS. 12Z FRIDAY-...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z SATURDAY-06Z MONDAY...A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/MPV. 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .HYDROLOGY... HAVE BACKED OFF ON STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TO A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS STEADY MAINLY IN THE 40S. SNOWPACK HOLDING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, AND MUCH OF THE SWE IS FORECAST TO BE RELEASED IN THE UPCOMING MELT EPISODE. ALTHOUGH LESS RAIN FORECAST...COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND ONGOING SNOWMELT CAN STILL POTENTIALLY CREATE FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SEE SHARP RISES TO BANKFULL...AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO SNOW BLOCKED DITCHES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FORECAST RAINFALL PLAYS OUT BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A FLOOD RISK TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH. EAST BRANCH AUSABLE AT AUSABLE FORKS NY, OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND, AND WINOOSKI AT ESSEX JUNCTION OF PRIMARY CONCERN WITH FORECAST RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY). SOUTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST AND RETURNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER... BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL AS ALONG OPEN AND SOUTHWARD FACING SHORES. INCREASED CHOP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027- 031-087. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028>030-034- 035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...HANSON MARINE...MUCCILLI

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