Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221723 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 123 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS, EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE. ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE... && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN 04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS AFTN/EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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