Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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866 FXUS61 KBTV 010755 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 255 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will continue to spread across the North Country tonight with strong gusty winds possible through early Thursday morning. On Thursday, the rain will become focused around the higher terrain, changing to snow Thursday night. Terrain focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 937 PM EST Wednesday...Have updated to reflect current observations and radar trends. Steadier rain will move across the forecast area between 6z and 12z. Have increased overnight minimum temperatures. Clouds and precipitation will prevent temperatures from falling very much, especially with small dewpoint depressions. Previous discussion follows. Strong wind gusts expected tonight. Have issued SPS for subadvisory criteria. But cannot rule out isolated areas reaching advisory criteria, mainly near the summits. Large low pressure system will continue to push rain into the North Country, along with strong low level jet moving into the region. GFS and NAM indicate 50 kt jet at 850mb around 06Z, exiting NEwd around 12Z. Local BTV2km model shows SE jet resulting in strong downsloping wind gusts on western slopes peaking in strength at 06Z. As rain spreads across the area, question is how long will mixing last before stabilizing effects of the rain. BUFKIT models show mixing limited to about 950mb with winds decreasing starting 08z. Cooling 925mb temperatures early in the night, trending warmer after 06Z Thursday. The aforementioned strong gusty winds are expected to diminish around 09Z as BL shrinks. With rain and clouds, expect Min temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Come Thursday morning, main precip shield will lift to the north and east, with rain showers expected to concentrate around the higher terrain as we remain under cyclonic flow. Max temperatures will be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM EST Thursday...By Friday into Saturday the large- scale upper low/cyclonic gyre will slowly translate east across southern Quebec and into the maritimes by late in the period. Background synoptic flow will transition from west/southwesterly to northwesterly over time and with ample low to mid level moisture scattered to numerous orographically-enhanced rain and snow shower activity looks likely. Highest coverage should occur on Friday with passage of the primary thermal trough with coverage slowly waning on Saturday. With abundant cloud cover narrower than normal diurnal temperature swings are expected with highs in the 40s on Friday cooling to the 30s on Saturday. Lows Friday night ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 255 AM EST Thursday...Any lingering scattered rain/snow shower activity then comes to an end Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will set the stage for fair and dry conditions on Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the 30s. By Monday into Tuesday of next week sensible conditions shouldn`t be all that bad. A dampening mid-level trough will pass through the region on Monday with just an outside chance of a few rain or snow showers and some clouds, otherwise dry weather should prevail with at least some partial sunshine expected. Temperatures again within a few degrees of seasonal early December norms. Looking further out into later next week medium range solutions continue to show a general re-amplification of the flow across the lower 48 as a pronounced early-season arctic surge pushes southward into the Rockies and northern high plains. This will eventually set the stage for cyclogenesis across the central plains which will track northeastward over time. Rather significant differences remain however on where this will occur with the operational GFS remaining on the more progressive side of the guidance. For now have generally offered a gradual increase in pops/clouds from Wednesday onward as threat of rain/snow shower activity returns with initial warm thermal advection.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 06Z Friday...Active aviation weather conditions over the next 24 hours. Frontal system lifting northward into the region will bring widespread rainfall through 12Z Thursday, with precipitation becoming more intermittent/showery thereafter. Presently seeing VFR conditions at BTV/PBG/SLK, but overall trend will be toward MVFR overnight, with localized IFR for MSS/MPV/RUT. Gradual improvement is expected during the daylight hours on Thursday. Winds will also be an issue overnight...with gusts to 35kts at RUT through 06Z, and localized LLWS at MPV through 06Z. Will see winds shift into the SW during Thursday morning with passage of an occulded front. Winds will be locally moderately strong at KMSS on Thursday...SW 10-15kt with gusts to 25kts. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...A slow clearing trend is anticipated with IFR conditions becoming MVFR on Thursday Night into Friday. Mainly MVFR will prevail in the mountain TAF sites and a mix of MVFR/VFR in the valleys through the upcoming weekend. While drier conditions are expected Sunday and Monday, low level moisture will likely keep VFR/MVFR clouds around Sunday, less so Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Banacos/Lahiff

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