Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010751 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 351 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD. SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH, THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG, 35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...JMG

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