Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222258 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 658 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS WARM FRONT FEATURE. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500 J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS 4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK, AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER FIRE WEATHER...TABER MARINE...LOCONTO

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