Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220235 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1035 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will continue to progress eastward across Vermont overnight. On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather. Weather will remain dry through Thursday with high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
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As of 1035 PM EDT Sunday...Composite radar loop and surface observations showing rain showers have come to an end across northern New York at this time. Have made adjustments in the grids to account for this. Previous discussion from 348 PM EDT Sunday...Rain, heavy at times, continues to affect the St Lawrence Valley progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley as of 330 pm, then continuing into eastern VT around 22z-01z. Expect back edge of precip to move west to east, ending showers in the St Lawrence Valley between 23z-01z, Champlain valley btwn 03z-06z and exiting eastern VT 09z- 12z. Storm total QPF generally 0.5 to 1.25 inch with locally higher amounts possible. South to Southwesterly winds continue to be gusty with tight pressure gradient in place. After cold front passes, winds will shift west to northwest, filtering in drier air. Some low clouds hanging around behind the front with gusts subsiding tonight, but sustained winds remaining breezy 6-12kts. Min temps tonight falling into the 50s to around 60. Monday will continue to have drier air spread across the region in NW flow as surface high pressure builds into the Ohio river valley. A 500mb trough will continue to affect the North Country for most of the day, keeping partly sunny/partly cloud skies for most of the day. Noticeably cooler temperatures expected with max temperatures generally in the 60s to low 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...500 mb trough exits New England Monday night with building high pressure from the west. Center of surface high to the southwest with enough pressure gradient to maintain northwest low level flow and some cold air advection, however protected spots will decouple with near calm winds and good radiational cooling. Lows Tuesday night in the 40s, although won`t be surprised to see some 30s at KSLK. Warmer near Lake Champlain where water temps in 70s will keep temps up a bit. A period of benign weather through mid week. Slow warming trend in temperatures with building ridge aloft. At the surface ridge shifts east allowing warmer southerly return flow. Max temps rebound into the 70s Tuesday and 80s Wednesday. Min temps follow suit, a few degrees warmer each night with increasing dewpoints and warm southerly flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Broad trough over the central US at mid week will slowly shift east, turning mid level flow southwesterly over the eastern US. northeast-southwest oriented surface front will move out of the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. GFS/ECMWF in agreement on bringing surface front through forecast area on Friday as main focus for precipitation. However models are also bringing in chances for precip in northern NY early Thursday, with a weak vort that moves along the St. Lawrence valley in southwest flow. Some guidance break POPs out in likely category, and have pulled back Thursday POPs quite a bit, but allowed chc into the St. Lawrence valley & NW Adirondacks Thursday afternoon. Change pops then areawide Thursday night and Friday. This far out went simple with showers at night and showers/thunderstorms during the daytime. Decent cold air advection behind the front with Saturday max temps back down into the upper 70s to near 80. && .AVIATION /03Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday...Generally VFR to MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to large frontal rain band moving to the north-northeast through 06z. There may even be temporary IFR visibility intervals mainly at RUT and MPV as weak secondary wave low in the Hudson Valley enhances rainfall intensity. Should see improvement toward VFR after 06z. Expect a wind shift to south-southwest around 6-10 kts with the gradual passage of the cold front, then slowly veering to west- northwest at similar speeds into early Monday morning. Less eventful aviation conditions then for Monday with SCT-BKN VFR stratocumulus and northwest winds around 10 knots, with gusts up to 20 kts. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 00Z Tuesday through Friday... 00Z Tue - 18Z Thurs...VFR under High pressure. Only exception will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z each morning. 18Z Thurs onward...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...KGM/Loconto

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