Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261105 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest across the area today with sunny to partly sunny skies through a good part of the day along with seasonably mild temperatures. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, passing through the area during Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms will be possible during this period. Behind the front, fair and seasonably warm weather is expected by Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday...Update as of 700 am to introduce deck of stratus clouds advecting north through the SLV per observational and satellite data. Models generally not handling this that well outside the HRRR which admittedly is only so-so. Did some hand editing per current IR/early morning VIS satellite trends to get something reasonable into the forecast, then blended into existing data by this afternoon. Given these clouds opted to drop high temperatures in this area by a degree or two. The rest of the forecast remains in good shape. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Other than patchy morning dense fog, a great day remains in store for the forecast area as expansive high pressure bridges atop the northeast. Sunny to partly sunny skies are expected for the majority of the day with light southerly winds, modest humidity and temperatures in the 70s to around 80. An approaching surface trough to our northwest across southern Ontario will begin to push some mid level cloud cover into northern counties by late afternoon or early evening but any precipitation associated with this feature should hold off until after sunset. By tonight, the first wave of showers arrives from the west and northwest over time as mid level heights fall and weak embedded shortwave energy skirts through the mean flow aloft. Have maintained solid chance to likely pops (40-60%) after midnight in most areas, though rainfall should be on the lighter side and generally less than a third of an inch. Did opt to include low probabilities for a few storms across northern New York later tonight where evidence of weak mid level instability is offered in various global and mesoscale solutions. Nothing strong to severe though. Lows hold on the mild side under light to modest southerly flow - mainly upper 50s to mid 60s. By Thursday the primary surface trough swings through the area by the afternoon hours as winds trend westerly over time. Good moisture convergence in vicinity of the boundary warrants maintaining solid chance pops for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Modest instability combined with decent 0-6 km shear into the 30-35 kt range will interact with a favorable afternoon timing to perhaps allow for a few stronger to locally severe storms, mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward where SREF/NAM calibrated severe progs are highest. Confidence only modest at this point as clouds may limit boundary layer destabilization processes. Per coordination with GYX/ALY offices and current SPC Marginal Risk for our region will introduce low probabilities for gusty winds and small hail into the forecast in these areas accordingly, mainly in the noon to 6 pm time frame. Highs will be similar to today - mainly 70s to perhaps a few spot readings near 80 though with dewpoints climbing into the 60s humidity levels will be higher. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Front moves away from the area Thursday night and some showers will linger during the first half of the night before ending, Friday will also be dry. Cold air advection continues through the day, temps should top out in the lower to mid 70s, about 5 degrees below our seasonal normal of 81 for this day. During the day Friday an closed upper level low will track from lower Michigan towards Western Pennsylvania. At this time looks like showers associated with this feature will remain well south of our area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Our region will have dry weather extending from Friday through Monday. Surface and upper level ridges maintain the drier air mass over the area. Aforementioned upper level low will pass from Western Pennsylvania on Friday night eastward and off the New England coast by Saturday night. Precipitation should remain south of our forecast area. Surface high begins to slide eastward on Monday and chance for showers by afternoon and evening with a front approaching our area from Canada. Right now it looks like front won`t actually cross our area till later Tuesday afternoon towards the end of the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR/LIFR in mist and fog through the 13-14Z time frame at KSLK and KMPV. Otherwise VFR through the forecast period with SKC to SCT cigs in the 050-100 AGL range through 00Z. Exception in the SLV and at KMSS terminal where more prevalent OVC skies will prevail this morning, generally from 040-060 AGL. Winds trending light southerly from 5 to 10 kts through the day. After 00Z skies trend OVC with increasing chances for showers into the overnight hours with approach of upper trough. An outside shot of a stray thunderstorm at KMSS late in the forecast period. Conditions generally remain VFR though brief reductions in visibility to MVFR possible in steadier showers. Winds calm to light southerly. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Chance TSRA. A few stronger storms possible with brief MVFR/IFR. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday Night through Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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