Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 111852 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN 02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW. WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6" SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1 TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...BANACOS

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