Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211807 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40 CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR TRENDS WAS DONE ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LIKELY AS THE H500 CLOSED CIRCULATION IS OVER LAKE ERIE. AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER CNTRL PA/CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MAINLY L50S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION... THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN... ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN PORTIONS OF VT. SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S. SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S. MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850 TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPACT THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES BRINGING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...AND IFR VISIBILITIES AT KMPV. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR BETWEEN 1-3 KFT BY 21Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KSLK AND VFR CEILINGS AT KRUT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6-12 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLOW AT KBTV AND KRUT. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KMPV OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSS AFTER 12Z WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVESON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...IRL HYDROLOGY EVENSON

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