Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272344 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 744 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary upper level low pressure over Lake Superior will continue to bring dry and seasonally warm conditions to the North Country through Wednesday. Chances for showers increase for the end of the work week and into the weekend though as the low drifts southward into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, remaining there through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 701 PM EDT Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape with only tweak being the addition of some sprinkles for the next couple of hours based on radar/reports across northeast New York and northwest Vermont. Remainder of forecast for tonight remains untouched. Previous Discussion... For tonight into Wednesday, a semi-stationary closed upper low over Lake Superior will continue to be the dominating weather feature across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as it very slowly meanders south. Mean south/southwesterly flow in a dry slot aloft will continue to rule over the area which will keep conditions dry with variable cloudiness. It will also keep us on the mild side of normal in regards to temperatures with tonights lows only dropping down into 40s for most, exception being the colder hollows of the Adirondacks where some upper 30s are possible. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today for locations west of the Green Mountains in the mid 60s to low 70s, but east of the spine it`ll be a little cooler as a low marine stratus layer moves in overnight and continue through the first half of Wednesday. If the stratus deck wasn`t there tonight, fog would be a good bet for all of our climo favored river valleys, but as such I think it will be confined to northern New York where skies will be clearest and winds light. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging aloft will help keep bulk of precip associated with large 500mb closed low over the Western Ohio Valley as models show 500mb heights increase through Thursday evening. At the surface, large ridge over the eastern half of Canada reinforces lack of movement of weak surface low around the Ohio Valley. Expect cloudy conditions across southern half of the forecast area and partly cloudy for areas north to start the period, but as flow at 850mb and 925mb becomes more easterly late Thursday, low level moisture and clouds will spread across northern areas as well. Chances for rain showers will be closest to the aforementioned low, therefore, Adirondacks and south central Vermont will see chances for rain, while most other areas expect dry or only slight chance. Thursday night will see the closed 500mb low eventually start to migrate northward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...The closed mid/upper level low pressure looks to slowly travel northward, bringing increasing chances for precipitation across the North Country. On Saturday this low picks up momentum with the highest chances for rain showers affecting the area Saturday night through most of Monday as a occluded front moves from SW to NE. As the mid-upper low moves over the eastern Great Lakes Region, it will weaken, especially as it begins to move into NY on Monday. Models vary on track at this point. Not a strong or deep moisture feed associated with this system, as warm conveyor belt associated with coastal low. Therefore, not expecting heavy precip as PWATs stay within 1 standard deviation of normal across the North Country. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few exceptions. Overnight MVFR and VLIFR are likely at KMPV and KSLK. For KMPV, a developing marine stratus layer off the Maine coast will make a run into portions of eastern Vermont towards dawn Wednesday, mainly affecting terminals east of the Greens. Meanwhile at KSLK, clearer skies, light winds and recent rainfall will make for the high likelihood of dense fog as early as 03z, and lasting through at least 12z. After 12z, KSLK fog burns off, but timing of the stratus deck lifting at KMPV is a bit more uncertain. Have gone with 14z there, but could see it lasting longer. Final aviation challenge will be increasing southeasterly flow at KRUT, where expect gusts 20-25kts to begin early Wednesday morning and likely last through the day. While KMSS will see gusty Northeasterly winds at 10-20 knots for most of the late afternoon. Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday... 00z Thu - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR. 00z Fri - 00z Mon: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible, especially on Saturday/Sunday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff/MV

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