Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281943 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 343 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL END BY TONIGHT WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 141 PM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THINGS ARE DRYING OUT AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING REVEALING SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THE TREND OF CLEARING OUT SHOULD SLOWLY TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WINDS GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20KTS FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING IN SE VT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS. TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO +5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE 500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR CLR OVERNIGHT ALL TAF SITES AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SUBSIDE. KEPT A TEMPO OF MVFR -SN AT KSLK, OTHERWISE DRY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS THROUGH 00-06Z, AND ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY OVERDONE IT DOES MATCH ONGOING CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00-04Z THEN BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH RIDGE TO WEST WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO 15-20KTS AT ABOUT 2500 FT. MIXING ENDS AFTER SUNSET AND TOWARD MORNING KMSS AND KSLK WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THEIR EAST. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES. 06-12Z MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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