Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 132025 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mostly clear and much cold conditions are expected tonight as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. This area of high pressure will bring mostly sunny conditions with lighter winds for Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance will bring a few mountain snow showers late Saturday night, with clouds expected to persist across much of Vermont and northern New York on Sunday. High temperatures this weekend will mainly be in the upper teens to mid 20s. Temperatures are expected to trend back well above normal for much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 322 PM EST Friday...Clearing trend continues across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon as colder/drier air mass moves in from the WNW. Increasing sunshine and low-level cold air advection has led to steep lapse rates and gusty winds, which will persist for several more hrs this afternoon. Getting 26 mph sustained with gusts to 36 mph at BTV at 2015Z, and will see some gusts 30-40 mph thru the late afternoon hours areawide, before lessening after sunset. Temperatures are generally in the 20s, except 35F at Springfield VT with some local downslope effects in nw flow. Anticipate temperatures slowly falling this afternoon despite sunshine, and the falling more quickly after sunset as boundary layer decouples and skies become clear. Surface anticyclone crests over our region at 12Z Saturday. Will continue to see some gusty W-NW winds for a time tonight, and may see a period of wind chills 10 to 20 below across the Adirondacks and far nern VT before abating after 06Z. Overnight lows will be cold, but absence of snow cover will mitigate the degree of radiative cooling a bit. Looking for readings in the single digits above zero in the Champlain Valley, and zero to -10F elsewhere, coldest in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. High pressure moves east of our longitude on Saturday with light S-SW winds developing and plenty of sunshine. Looking for highs in the upper teens to lower 20s. No precipitation is expected tonight or Saturday. A weak upper level shortwave glances far nrn/nern VT after 06Z Sunday. Have included PoPs 20-30 percent for snow showers or flurries 06-12Z Sunday, and skies trending mostly cloudy across the area. Could see a minor accumulation (dusting to 1") of very dry snow (20:1 snow-to-liquid ratios) across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern VT during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Not expecting any travel issues. Lows not as cold Saturday night due to increasing clouds; mainly in the teens, except 5-10F across the nrn Adirondacks and the colder valleys of Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM EST Friday...12z suite of guidance still indicating a pretty quiet for the latter part of the holiday weekend. In general, pretty big high pressure will be in control. That said, there are a couple of minor items that will impact some aspects of the sensible weather we will see, especially Sunday. Models still show a weak short wave trough passing by to the north of the region first thing Sunday. Between that, some low level (900mb/4500ft and below) moisture and northwest/upslope flow, we should be able to squeeze out some flurries across the higher terrain of northern Vermont during the morning. Did enhance the cloud cover until mid-afternoon as that low level moisture and some blocked flow will probably mean pesky clouds will be around a bit longer than would otherwise be expected given the deep layer drying that will be occurring. Sunday night will be mostly clear. With relatively light winds, we`ll have some decent radiational cooling going on, especially in areas with snowpack. Temperatures will probably flirt with sub-zero across parts of northeast VT and the Adirondacks, especially normally colder locations. Teens elsewhere. MLK Day is still looking high and dry under fairly strong high pressure. Temperatures will warm a little aloft as the flow becomes more westerly, so we should top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. About 5F degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Friday...General scenario of an unsettled but mild mid to late week for the area is still on track as low pressure will move by to our west giving us another round of mostly rain. Models continue to struggle with specifics, and the 12z GFS reversed it`s recent trend and is showing precipitation moving in a little faster now on Tuesday. Trended a little more toward the slower 12z Euro to show Tuesday mostly dry. Bulk of the precipitation is expected Tuesday night into at least the first half of Wednesday. Given the temperature profiles, most of this will be rain. Could be a bit of a wintry mix across the higher terrain/`Dacks/eastern VT but a bit too early to pinpoint those specifics which result from just small changes in the temperature profile. Kept with the simplistic idea of a rain/snow mix deal based on forecast temperatures. Suspect guidance is a bit too cold for Tuesday night given all the clouds and precipitation. Did raise overnight lows several degrees, but that may still be a bit too cool. We`ll see how later guidance trends in that arena. Wednesday will still be mild, as there is just no cold air with this system. Stayed close to guidance on over precipitation chances. 12z Euro now shows a weak surface low developing and moving just to our south Wednesday night bringing a secondary round of precipitation which would again be primarily rain given it`s 850mb temperatures around +5C. 12z GFS meanwhile has a shortwave come through as 850mb temperatures are falling to below 0C, suggesting a brief shot of rain/snow showers early Wednesday night. For the forecast, just took a blend of the current and prior runs, so I will show a trend of rain turning to some snow in colder locations. Whatever does turn out, it doesn`t appear we would be looking at any real snowfall accumulations. Lastly, Thursday appears quieter. 12z suite shows various stages of drier weather moving in. 850mb temperatures will either be around -2C (per ECMWF) or -7C (per GFS). Either way, daytime highs will be above normal. Again, stuck with model guidance blend which incorporates some previous model runs which showed the warmer solution to be more likely at this point. && .AVIATION /21Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected with clearing skies mid-late afternoon. With arctic air moving in, may see some Lake Champlain induced clouds 06-12Z Saturday, and will see SCT-BKN015-020 somewhat close to BTV for a few hrs early Sunday morning. Main band of lake clouds should be slightly to the west of BTV, so included just SCT020 in the TAF starting at 08Z Saturday attm. Only other issue are the winds, currently 24G30kt at BTV. Will see potential NW gusts in excess of 25kts thru sunset, before diminishing areawide. Should fall below 10kts by 03-04Z, and BCMG light S-SW during the day Saturday. 18z Saturday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through Monday. A weak upper level disturbance may bring some mountain snow showers 06-18Z Sunday with HIR TRRN OBSCD across the nrn Greens for a time. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in mainly rain, possibly as early as late Tuesday...but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Banacos

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