Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211733 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 133 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...JN SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...TABER

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