Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 261905
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Summer like conditions will persist across the North Country
through the Memorial Day weekend, featuring well above normal
temperatures, more humid conditions, and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...Lots of interesting features out
there this afternoon with the current surface and upper air
analysis showing a mid/upper level ridge cresting over the region,
a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes through
just south of the Mohawk Valley to southern New England, and a few
very nondescript shortwave troughs upstream supporting some
convective development coming into western New York. As expected
some isolated convection has begun to develop over the
Adirondacks, and moving on into tonight, the main forecast idea
will be that any convective development over the Adirondacks will
dissipate this evening with the loss of surface instability due to
daytime heating, with any additional convection firing over
Western New York this afternoon riding along the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary to our south. Best chances for
precipitation, albeit low, during the overnight should be along
our southern tier zones accordingly, and mainly through midnight
or a couple hours beyond, with generally dry conditions to the
north. Mid clouds become more abundant through the night area-wide
with very light surface winds, leading to mild overnight lows
ranging from the 50s in the Adirondacks and Central/Northeast
Vermont, to lower 60s elsewhere, which are a good 10 to 15 degrees
Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned
upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection
to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts
northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE
appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where
I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a
few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps
bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the
80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern
Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll
fall just short in the upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind
warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers
with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max
temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range,
especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing
PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed
layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in
the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet.
Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and
temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain
under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap,
perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90.
Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon
and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again.
Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled
by warm temperatures creating instability.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the
extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures
continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will
remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through
early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area
Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely
mentioned at this time.
.AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated/scattered afternoon shra/tsra locally and
briefing reducing cigs/vsby to MVFR/IFR. Through most of the
overnight, dry conditions should prevail with mid clouds becoming
BKN-OVC. Winds light and variable.
Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to
occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.