Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160541 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the northern Great Lakes will build eastward providing the North Country with cooler and drier weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will arrive with a frontal system later Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday...Other than a few showers across Rutland and Windsor counties...threat of showers over for much of the area. Have fine tuned forecast to indicate a few showers over south central Vermont for the next couple of hours. Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies overnight with patchy fog looks good. Main cold front just now getting into the Ottawa Valley and this will continue to slowly push into the area early this morning. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...Behind the upper level trough the flow becomes northwest which will act to drive in a drier airmass. High pressure develops and remains in firm control until late Thursday as an upper level trough slowly starts to increase cloud cover across the North Country. The main forecast challenges will be how cold do we bottom out at in the Northern Adirondacks Wednesday night. With calm winds/clear skies, I wouldn`t be surprised Thursday morning to see Saranac Lake in the 30s. Warm air advection returns though for Thursday as temps trend back towards near normal for Thursday afternoon and overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 412 PM EDT Tuesday...Available medium range guidance is showing good agreement through early next week. Period begins with ridging at the surface and aloft before sliding east of the area and bringing the return of precipitation early Friday. Heavy rainfall may become possible as PWAT values around 2" Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Surface front slowly moves east bringing and end to the precipitation Saturday. Quiet weather returns during the day Sunday and Sunday night as a ridge builds back over the eastern seaboard. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...A wide range of categories is expected across the area through about 12z as low level moisture will produce low clouds and fog at KSLK...KPBG...KBTV...and KMPV. At these sites there will be periods of IFR to VLIFR conditions while KMSS and KRUT remain VFR through 12z. A cold front is moving down from Canada and should move across the area between 08z and 13z. Once this does the winds will turn to the northwest and drier air will start to move in...which will allow for any low clouds and fog to dissipate. Thus all sites after 13z will be in the VFR category through the remainder of the period. Winds will pick up later this morning from the northwest with gusts in the 10 to 15 knot range before tapering off around sunset. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Evenson/Deal SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...Evenson

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