Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190722 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WFO BTV

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