Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252323 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 723 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO OUR REGION. THIS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 332 PM EDT MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATER AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST ARE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION NOT MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS... DUSTING TO TWO INCHES...WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON GRASSY SURFACES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW. ON TUESDAY...THE MORNING HOURS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SO AGAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES. LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH HELPING TO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CONTINUED SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TO THE RAPIDLY ENDING OF PRECIP I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THAT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S. THE PERTINENT WEATHER CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND JUST HOW DRY WE GET. LOW DAYTIME RH`S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MINIMUM RH`S IN THE 20-25% RANGE HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST PIVOTS AROUND BUT REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH CONTINUES NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. THATS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS AND EVENINGS HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A MODERATING TREND TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS FINALLY CRACKING INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SO I OPTED TO JUST KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH 06Z WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW FROM 06Z TO 15Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. KMSS WILL BE EXCLUDED FROM THE ABOVE SCENARIO AS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THUS REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CLEARING WILL BEGIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

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