Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211847 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 247 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the Monday with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected. The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow moving trough of low pressure impacts the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure over much of the eastern seaboard this afternoon will remain firmly in control of the North Country`s weather through the next 36 hours as the center slowly shifts northeast into the Canadian maritimes by Monday morning. Current satellite imagery shows a good deal of cirrus streaming into the area between the high and the slowly approaching low well to our west, so while skies won`t be completely cloudy, they won`t be completely clear. Don`t feel these clouds will have any impact on temps, with the greater impact being increasing south/southwesterly return flow on the backside of the high. The result will be a slight warming trend to temps for tonight through Sunday night. Lows tonight will widely range through the 40s with a few spot upper 30s possible in the typical colder hollows, but Sunday night will be markedly warmer in the mid 40s to mid 50s with the warmest values in the deeper valleys where winds will be strongest. 925mb temps warm just a couple of degrees tomorrow from todays values, so expect highs to range from the low to mid 70s area-wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Unseasonably warm weather will continue in the short term. Massive upper ridge with associated surface high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday night before easing eastward with slowly falling heights on Monday. In fact, the incredible 586 dm 500-mb heights peaking at 00z Mon are at the climatological maximum percentile ranking. Some high clouds will sneak over the ridge Sunday night along with warm advection in a increasing southwest flow. Low temps mid 40s east to mid 50s west. On Monday other than high clouds, dry weather is expected with 925 mb temps 13-15C should bring max temps into the lower to mid 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Big change from the dry weather pattern to a wet one is expected in the long term with good model agreement on the large scale early next week as a digging longwave trof moves into eastern us. There will be some cooling closer to normal later next week as the trof moves eastward but some significant model differences by then, so confidence is low on the details. There are differences in the details, timing, speed of the trof development and short waves moving through it but it looks like the best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep moist (PW >1.5") southerly flow develops over the area. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving slowly eastward through the region Tuesday night or Wed providing the main lift for precipitation. The 00Z GFS has very little precip at BTV while ECMWF has 0.50-1.5" which seems more reasonably at this point. Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers around into Thu. ECMWF is considerably slower than the GFS moving the trof east hence the uncertainty in the forecast. Looking at a continuation of much above normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even to normal despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail over the region over the next 24 hours with a SCT-BKN thin cirrus deck moving over the forecast area this afternoon through the overnight. Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts varying in direction from southwest to southeast. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Lahiff EQUIPMENT...BTV

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