Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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097 FXUS61 KBTV 202350 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 750 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the North Country through the evening hours with just some lingering showers during the overnight hours. Scattered showers are expected to develop once again on Wednesday...but dry weather moves into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. High temperatures will generally be right around seasonal normals. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 741 PM EDT Tuesday...Overall the previous forecast remains in good shape but based on latest model trends on the track and areal coverage of upstream convection have opted for a few modest updates, mainly to sky cover and precip potential for the overnight hours. Upstream convection stretching from southern Michigan to the western tip of Lake Ontario this evening on the leading edge of an approaching upper trough and associated PVA will look to make a run at the North Country later this evening from midnight through the pre-dawn hours. Best chance for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be from the Adirondacks westward across northern New York, while confidence is less for points eastward. Ahead of this feature, afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms have dissipated, and so has the cloud cover with mostly clear conditions. Expect clearing to continue through the evening with the loss of insolational heating, but increase again as the upstream shortwave approaches. Lows remain on track to be mild by early summer standards in the mid 50s to low 60s. Previous Discussion...Next round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across the area late this afternoon in response to the atmosphere destabilizing after some convection this morning and a shortwave trough moving into the area. Would expect most of this to die out after sunset with maybe a few lingering showers overnight. More noticeable shortwave trough currently moving across the Great Lakes region has an area of convection associated with it that appears to be more dynamically driven. Would expect some of this to hold together and move into our area well after midnight. Areal coverage will be less...but nevertheless bring another threat of showers to the area. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Shortwave trough mentioned in the near term moves across the area Wednesday morning and enhances the potential for some showers in the morning and then since the area remains in cyclonic flow aloft and cooler air aloft leads to some destabilization...would expect more scattered showers to develop. Thunder threat to remain low...even less than on Tuesday. West to northwest flow aloft develops Wednesday night and Thursday and pronounced drying should take place for no precipitation. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s...but then warm air advection takes place on Thursday for highs in the 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Active start to the extended period as an upper trof shears out north of the Great Lakes, and a surface low and attendant frontal boundary approach from the west. Medium range guidance in pretty good agreement into the early part of the weekend regarding timing and placement of the features, yet qpf differences are still noted. Some modest surface instability and a fair amount of deep layer shear would suggest thunder, possibly with some organization is a good bet during the day Friday. Will continue to carry pretty robust pops through the day Friday into Friday night. ECMWF is pretty wet with this system with qpf in the 1.5" range... the GFS is lower with amounts generally around .75-1". Will still have to monitor for heavy rain potential as GFS precipitable water values once again increase into the 1.5-2" range in the moisture rich southwesterly flow ahead of this next system. Shortwave and surface boundary moving east of the area by early Saturday bringing organized precipitation east of the area. Broad upper trof remains over the northeast with westerly flow and weak surface ridging through the early part of next week. With cyclonic upper flow and cooler air aloft some showers remain possible into early next week despite the weak surface ridge. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions for the next few hours at all terminals with only isolated showers lingering into the early evening. Another area of showers expected to move northeastward from the eastern Great Lakes will bring chance of showers or VCSH and possibly some MVFR cigs at MSS and SLK after 04Z. Expect the potential for these showers to shift east into the Champlain Valley after sunrise, diminishing throughout the morning. Towards early morning, mainly clear skies and subsiding winds over MPV bringing the potential for MVFR conditions between 08z-12z. Wednesday morning will see VFR conditions persisting throughout the day. Gusty winds at MSS and SLK will subside overnight with most terminals between 5-10 kts through sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the SW around 10-15kts with gusts up to 25 kts developing Wind direction will shift W/NW in the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...KGM

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