-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 171132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 733 AM EDT MONDAY...ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPT AND SKY GRIDS BASED
ON OBS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER NEAR INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...LIMITED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING REGARDING TS TO
LOWER 3/4THS OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. A COUPLE BREAKS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL PSBL...BUT MOST CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THIS BREAK WON/T LAST AS CLOUDS NORTH OF WRN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EWD. S-SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY MOIST.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NW/N. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE
INSTABILITY TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
400+J/KG...BUT SOME AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE
OVERDONE BY MODEL GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING
LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS
AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM
MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE LACKING IN UPPER JET DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK
ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z AND THIS SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG AND JUST SOME MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG