Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261129 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK. STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 006>012-017>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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