Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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918 FXUS61 KBTV 300614 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 214 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN BEGINS BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING. DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...SISSON

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