Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241023 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 623 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES. HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCALES. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75 TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58. BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77 TO 84. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A +PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK) RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO -6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK AROUND 04Z/25TH. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. 00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

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