Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161732 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 132 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build into the area today with variably cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures as winds slowly relax. Clear skies tonight will aid in chilly temperatures with areas of frost and freezing temperatures expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with a steady warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1130 AM EDT Monday...Opted to lower max temperatures by 1-3 degrees or so based off current observational trends, which are running cooler than prior indications. This will keep most readings steady in the 40s to around 50 this afternoon. Remainder of the forecast left unchanged. Prior discussion... Surface ridge axis builds into our region from the Great Lakes tonight, and increased subsidence and lighter winds will allow stratus and stratocu to break up toward/after sunset. Will see good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s across the nrn Adirondacks and nern VT, to the mid 30s across the Champlain Islands. The local frost/freeze program remains active across the Champlain Valley. As a result, have issued freeze warnings in the Champlain Valley (05-12Z Tuesday), except a frost advisory for the Champlain Islands with the moderating influence of the warm lake temps (still in the low 60s). Sfc ridge axis translates to our east Tuesday allowing a southerly return flow of 10-15 mph to set up. This will begin a moderating temperature trend under mostly clear skies. Should see high temperatures in the 55-60F range. PoPs NIL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will support highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold front through the North Country but the system will be moisture deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near 70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT terminals through 00Z Tue where a brief sprinkle will be possible. Winds northwest 6 to 12 knots and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range at eastern terminals through 00Z before trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain Valley west. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005- 009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001. NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.