Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280005 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 805 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CLOUD COVER IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UPWARD SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR LOOP SHOWING PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ONLY MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THUS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...AGAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL JUST TO OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A CHANGE FINALLY TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN ENDING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO JUST A CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE COLDER AREAS. WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WED AND WED PM WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH FRI WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 08Z SATURDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. CEILINGS 4000-6000 FEET TO START SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND BY AFTERNOON ONLY A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST SHOULD REMAIN. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5-7 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTV. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED... BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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