Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171940 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 240 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building eastward across the North Country will bring cold temperatures and dry weather overnight, with just passing mid to upper level cloudiness. As the high pressure system shifts to our east, a warm front will approach with winds shifting into the south and southwest on Saturday. Temperatures will moderate considerably, with valley high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the weekend. Also, a weak upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds, with a slight chance for light rain or snow showers, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures generally above seasonal levels and relatively dry weather conditions are expected during the work week next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1243 PM EST Friday...Visible satellite imagery showing continued clearing trend across the region, with most locations mostly clear at 1745Z. Low-level subsidence will increase as sfc ridge axis across wrn PA/NY, Lake Ontario, and sern Ontario gradually build ewd into nrn NY this afternoon, and across VT tonight. Should see high pressure shift east of VT toward daybreak on Saturday. Winds will continue W-NW around 10kts thru sunset, and then become light SE-S after midnight as ridge axis shifts to the east of the region. We should have excellent radiative cooling for a time this evening through about 6Z, especially given deep snow pack in many areas. 12Z NAM model soundings suggest some increasing mid to upr level clouds from west to east after midnight...and along with developing light south winds, will probably see temps rise a bit during the pre- dawn hrs from the Champlain Valley wwd. Longer period of clear skies and decoupled PBL east of the Greens suggest trending toward colder GFS-MOS for ern portion of VT. Overall, looking at overnight lows in the low-mid teens, but single digits expected across the normally colder spots in the nrn Adirondacks and across ern VT. On Saturday, we`ll see relatively strong 850-700mb WAA as low- level flow becomes swly, and surface winds in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys increase to 10-20 mph. Valley highs generally expected in the upr 30s to lower 40s. It appears a weak nrn stream shortwave will bring the chance for a few sprinkles/mtn snow showers during Saturday night. Highest PoPs are across the nrn mtns, with PoPs generally 30-50 percent with just a few hundreths of an inch of liquid equivalent forecast. Lows Saturday night generally expected in the low-mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies, except upper 20s above 1000-1500ft elevation. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Latter half of the weekend turns briefly unsettled as a weak clipper system and shortwave energy passing north across southern Ontario/Quebec will renew chances for some light shower activity, though with weak forcing and an overall lack of deep moisture expect the highest chances to be across the higher terrain and scattered at best. Temperatures remain rather mild with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s, which will produce a mix of rain/snow in any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Next week begins with surface high pressure settling in over central Quebec along with an upper ridge building in from the Great Lakes. Northerly flow around the high will bring temps back down to more seasonal levels with highs mainly in the low/mid 30s, and the combination of clear skies and deep snowpack leading to good radiational cooling Monday night with lows in the single digits to teens. Upper ridge and surface high center over the region on Tuesday with temps warming back above normal as south/southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next system which looks to bring another quick round of rain and snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday. Fast westerly flow ensues for Thursday with some weak terrain driven showers possible, before the pattern becomes highly amplified Friday ahead of a potential big system for next weekend. If the GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out we could be looking at very warm temperatures and an abundance of rain which could lead to rapid snowmelt and potential flooding problems. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /20Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions during the period with just passing mid-upr level clouds. NW winds 5-10kts will diminish toward sunset with high pressure building in from the west. Winds will shift light SE toward daybreak, and then S-SW during the daylight hours on Saturday, approaching 10kts by 18Z. Outlook 18z Saturday through Wednesday... It appears areas of MVFR ceilings will return later in the day Saturday with SW winds bringing in lake induced cloudiness associated with moisture from the ern Great Lakes. Will see periods of HIR TRRN OBSCD 18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday. Any precipitation will be light, mainly isold/sct light rain or snow showers during Saturday night into early Sunday. Significant precipitation is not expected during the outlook period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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