Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290809 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 409 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 410 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKING DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A DECAYING 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM IS HELPING TO SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS NOTED ON THE IR/SFC OBS ACRS CENTRAL CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRNT DROPPING SOUTH. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED IN LLVL THERMAL PROFILES WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BTWN 15 AND 17C...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THINKING HIGHS WL RANGE FROM THE U60S NEK/MTNS TO MID/UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH TEMPS NEAR 80F AT VSF. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY...AS FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACRS OUR CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 410 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK BACK DOOR FRNT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH...BUT STALLS AND WASHES OUT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY TUES. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST WL BE TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE...AND LLVL WIND FIELDS THRU TUES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BTV 4KM SOLUTION...SHOWING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT...BUT ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY TUES AS FRNT LIFTS NORTH. ALSO...HAVE NOTED IN AREA SOUNDINGS...PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHEAST 925MB WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS UPSLOPE FLW OF ATLANTIC MARITIME AIR WL PRODUCE A LLVL STRATUS DECK ACRS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTERS THINK AND MENTION DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN OF CENTRAL VT ABOVE 1500 FT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP...WHICH WL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WL MENTION LOWS MAINLY IN THE L/M 50S COLDER MTNS VALLEYS TO L60S CPV. SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. TUESDAY...SE FLW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR NORTH CONTS...BUT LLVL CAA IS VERY MINIMAL. 925MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY...BUT THINKING LLVL CLOUDS/WIND DIRECTION WL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON TEMPS THAN ACTUAL ADVECTION. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLW HERE IN THE CPV SHOULD HELP TO WARM US INTO THE 70S AGAIN...WITH MAINLY L/M 60S COOLER MTNS. HAVE NOTED THE BTV 4/12KM AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ACRS THE CLV ON TUES AFTN. HAVE INVESTIGATED FURTHER AND NOTICE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES BTWN 300-500 J/KG...ALONG WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE. ALSO...HAVE NOTED S/W ENERGY NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THIS REGION...HELPING WITH ADDITIONAL ULVL LIFT. THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE LIMITED...SO WL KEEP POPS BTWN 20-30% ATTM...BUT WL MENTION TO DAYSHIFT TODAY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL. TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...CWA WL BE BTWN CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DEVELOPING/BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES BY 12Z WEDS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW BEST 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE BLW 850MB...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. THINKING LLVL STRATUS DECK WL CONT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST FLW...WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS IMPACTING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH...SO WL KEEP POPS LOW. TEMPS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...BUT WL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON TUES NIGHT...AND VERY CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE FOR WEDS. THIS SUPPORT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S TUES NIGHT AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO A FEW LOWER 70S WARMER VALLEYS ON WEDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH BEST SHOT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN FULL CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. A BLEND OF 18Z 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS BOTH THU/FRI IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER FAR ERN VT ON THU WITH BRIEF EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH. LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FULL LATITUDE MIDWESTERN/GREAT LAKES TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION WITH A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS...OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS BY THAT POINT. BETTER DYNAMICS OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT A DECENT PWAT PLUME AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTS HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES COOL MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT IN REALITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY OCTOBER STANDARDS (I.E. HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND 50S TO AROUND 60 BY NEXT SUNDAY). && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR FG AT KMPV/KSLK 06-13/14Z EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING N/NE AT NRN TERMINALS AFTER 12Z THOUGH LIGHT/VRB AT KMPV/KRUT. AFTER 00Z DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS) WILL BRING MORE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION. CONDS TRENDING SCT/BKN MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AT NRN NY TERMINALS...THOUGH SCT/BKN MVFR AT VT TERMINALS WITH E/SE MARITIME FLOW. SOME PATCHY -DZ POSSIBLE AT KMPV DURING THIS PERIOD. 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 05-12Z EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS NOT BEEN TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS SINCE 1554Z (1154 AM EDT) ON THE 27TH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS IS DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE BETWEEN THE SITE AND THE FAA ADAS (ASOS DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM). NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/SLW EQUIPMENT...BTV

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