Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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067 FXUS61 KBTV 270538 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure around the southern Great Lakes region will keep the North Country dry on Wednesday with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. This ridge of high pressure will slide south as a cold front sinks southeastward from southeastern Quebec producing showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue on Friday. High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1211 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in real good shape with just some minor tweaks to lower sky cover. Clear skies and light winds will lead to patchy fog developing...especially in the favored locations. Previous forecast discussion... Wednesday - Morning fog will burn off in plentiful sunshine and southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching from southeastern Ontario. 925mb temperatures reaching 23C to 24C with surface max temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. As the day progresses, mid to high level clouds will increase from the northwest, ahead of aforementioned cold front and PWATS begin to increase from less than one inch to over 1.25 inches late in the day in the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late in the day as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak frontal boundary north of the international border early Wednesday evening will be the main focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development as it slowly sags southward through the North Country Wednesday night through Thursday night. Overall we`re looking at fairly weak forcing with the parent upper low well north of the area just east of James Bay, and any shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough being meager at best. That said, convective activity will be largely instability driven, meaning lower chances during the night, higher during the day/afternoon. In addition, any storms that do develop will be more the "garden variety" type and not severe with weak shear/CAPE profiles in place. Likely to see some brief heavy downpours though with any stronger cores that do develop as PWAT progs jump up to around 1.5". Lows both nights will be fairly close to normal though slightly above in the upper 50s to upper 60s Wednesday night ahead of the front, and mid 50s to lower 60s behind the front Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be right around normal in the low/mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Still some uncertainty on the forecast going into the end of the week and weekend but feel global models are converging on a drier forecast with high pressure over central Ontario and the Great Lakes Thursday night slowly meandering over the Northeast through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast comes with a strong thermal boundary to our south coinciding with a fast westerly flow aloft with possible embedded shortwaves ejecting out of convective activity over the mid-west. Feeling is that outside of a few showers across southern Vermont on Friday, we should be mainly dry through the Sunday with the boundary remaining south and temps right around seasonal normals. As we move into the early part of next week, we`ll reintroduce some low chances for showers and thunderstorms as the aforementioned high drifts off the eastern seaboard with warmer and more humid weather returning on increasing southerly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06z Thursday...Other than periods of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSLK and KMPV through 13z...VFR conditions are expected everywhere in the area. There may be a few showers up near the Canadian Border between 21z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... 06z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday and Friday. 00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...Evenson/KGM/Hanson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson/KGM

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