Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271437 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1037 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the North Country today will bring a good deal of sunshine...dry weather...and temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals. The dry weather continues tonight...but the high pressure system will be moving east and this will allow moisture to begin increasing ahead of an upper level trough of low pressure. As this feature moves into the region on Sunday expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms...especially Sunday afternoon and night. High temperatures will be at or slightly above seasonal normals on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1037 AM EDT Saturday...Visible satellite loop showing some scattered cumulus clouds around the region at this time. previous forecast of mostly sunny skies for today still looks good, so no changes have been made to the forecast. Previous discussion from 701 AM EDT Saturday...Cannot seem to shake the mid level clouds across the area this morning...but areal coverage is slowly decreasing and this trend will continue. The clouds have had an impact on fog with areal coverage being a bit limited. The fog should burn off completely by mid-morning. Otherwise high temperatures will be a few degrees above normal today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will be light and variable. For tonight...the high moves off to the east and we begin to see more south to southwest flow in the lower levels. Clouds will be on the increase...especially mid and high level clouds. However...forcing is weak across the area and thus going with a dry forecast as it appears Sunday will have the better chances for precipitation. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...A strong mid/upper level ridge of high pres centered over VA will slowly break down as northern stream energy moves from the Great Lakes into the NE Conus. The flow around this area of high pres will advect pw values between 1.50 and 1.75 inches across our region ahead of a surface cold front. This available moisture...combined with modest upper level forcing from 5h vort will produce scattered showers on Sunday Afternoon into the overnight hours. Highest pops will be across northern NY between 18z-00z Sunday...but shift southeast into most of VT after 00z...as boundary crosses our region. Instability parameters show a modest axis of surface based CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg between 21-00z Sunday...with greatest values located over northern NY. Have included the mention of scattered thunderstorms...but not heavy rain...as dynamics are limited and surface convergence is weak. Temps on Sunday will be tricky as progged 850mb temps are between 14-16c...supporting highs well into the 80s...but with clouds and precip...expecting readings in the mid 70s mountains to lower 80s valleys...with a few mid 80s near VSF. Humidity levels will be increasing throughout the day...as dewpoints climb into the 60s. By Monday surface boundary is located just east of our cwa...with any lingering showers quickly ending as much drier air advects into the region. Progged pw values fall below 1.0 with moderate cold air advection on breezy northwest winds. 850mb temps cool 4 to 6 degrees by 12z monday with highs mainly in the 70s anticipated. will mention low chc pops in the morning for eastern areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...a cool night is expected on monday night with surface high pressure located over northern NY and building heights aloft. This will produce calm winds and clear skies with temps ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s to upper 40s/mid 50s warmer valleys. On Tuesday...surface high quickly shifts into the Gulf of Maine...as return flow develops ahead of approaching boundary. Some uncertainty on amount of low level moisture return before front arrives and overall instability on Tuesday afternoon. Pw`s climb to 1.50...with weak ribbon of CAPE around 500 J/kg. Will mention chance pops after 00z Wednesday with schc for thunder...as instability is limited. If front is earlier and greater instability develops from afternoon heating...then a greater coverage and intensity of storms will be possible...given upper level dynamics and associated jet. Strong low level cold air advection follows boundary on Thursday into Friday with 850mb temps falling between 2 and 4c. This low level thermal profiles supports temps dropping back to below normal by Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Expect mainly terrain driven showers on Thursday into Friday associated with upslope flow and some mid level moisture. Will mention schc/low chc pops for the mountains of NY into northern VT...based on position of closed 5h trof and available moisture. && .AVIATION /15Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 12Z Sunday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period with just a minor exception. Low clouds and fog will exist at KSLK and KMPV between 12z and 14z...which would result in IFR to VLIFR conditions. Area of mid level clouds currently moving across the area have been a limiting factor to fog development. Otherwise looking at some shallow cumulus over the higher terrain later this morning and afternoon with high clouds...above 20,000 feet moving in after 00z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... 12Z Sunday through Wednesday...mainly VFR through the period with high pressure. Two main threat periods for scattered showers and brief MVFR conditions - Sunday afternoon/evening, then again Tuesday afternoon/evening with weak trough passages. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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