Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231927 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 327 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure across the northeastern United States brings tranquil weather conditions across the North Country through tonight. A weak upper level disturbance may bring isolated rain showers or a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures will continue to moderate Wednesday, with afternoon highs into the mid 70s in most sections. A more significant low pressure system evolving across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region will bring potential for a more widespread rainfall to the North Country Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 138 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track with warmer temperatures and partly sunny/filtered sunshine through the remainder of the daylight hrs. Winds have eased as surface high pressure builds across the forecast area. Winds generally 10 mph or less, and seeing evidence of a lake breeze with SE winds at PBG. The 500 mb ridge shifts east during the near term period as the low to the west deepens. Great Lakes 500 mb low gets kicked out and moves across southern Quebec in the northern stream today, bringing a few clouds along the border during the afternoon hours. Weak westerly flow and filtered sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s in most locations. PoPs NIL. Ridging continues tonight, and low level moisture trapped under inversion, wet ground from recent rainfall and light winds will contribute to valley fog formation east of the Greens mtns and perhaps within the nrn Adirondack region. A 500 mb shortwave trough moves out of the base of the mean trough to our west, and up the Atlantic coast. A surface low spins up along the coast, and the main precip area with this feature will brush southern New England tonight, with no precip over Vermont/northern NY. Lows tonight in the 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief period of quiet weather ends on Thursday as the pattern becomes active again to end the work week. The morning will begin dry with high pressure holding strong, but as low pressure over the Ohio Valley begins to shift northeast into the eastern Great Lakes, deep layer moisture along an approaching warm front will spread showers from southwest to northeast across the North Country. Rainfall should be relatively light with daytime amounts only in the 0.10-0.25" range and temps topping out in the 60s to perhaps low 70s. Late Thursday afternoon into early Friday night the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain in regards to precip potential as models are trending towards a weak mid-level dry slot building over southern/central portions of the area as the low transfers energy to the southern New England coastal waters and the deeper warm frontal moisture shifts northward. During this time a strong low/mid level east/southeasterly jet of 35-45kts develops and while the window for mixing these winds to the surface is narrow, the potential exists for wind gusts of 30-45 mph along the downslope communities of the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Chittenden, Addison and Rutland counties. That window closes quickly towards midnight though and through the remainder of the night as the upper level and surface low consolidate and strengthen over Cap Cod advecting a moist stable marine layer into the region with rainfall becoming prevailing across the majority of the region right through Friday afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75" are expected with mild lows in the 50s Thursday night, and cooler highs in the 50s for Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...Coastal low pressure exits east Friday night and in its wake surface high pressure and a somewhat flat upper ridge build into the Northeast for Saturday and Saturday night offering dry conditions and seasonal temperatures. Sunday looks to be mostly dry as well as deepening upper level low pressure over the northern Plains amplifies the ridge over the Northeast Sunday morning, but increasing moisture advection on southwesterly flow combined with bits of shortwave energy ejecting out of the upper low will renew chance as for showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Best chance for widespread rain during the period comes Sunday night through Monday as the upper low shifts over the Great Lakes, with continued chances Tuesday as the low barely moves east and the region remains unsettled.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions with light winds expected throughout the TAF period. Weak sfc high across the mid-Atlantic coast will remain in control thru the overnight hrs, brining very light winds and just SCT-BKN080-120. May see enough breaks in the clouds to allow localized fog formation at SLK/MPV 06-11Z. Did include some BR mention at these locations only, with a chance of IFR conditions for a time during the pre- dawn hrs. Wednesday daylight hrs, surface low pressure develops east of NJ, with mid-level trough lifting nnewd across the North Country by early afternoon. Weak instability develops across the nrn mountains during the daylight hours Wednesday as well. As a result, will likely see building cumulus clouds by late morning/early aftn with isold -SHRA or -TSRA possible across the HIR TRRN toward 18Z Wednesday, and may see developing BKN030-045. Isold nature of convective activity does not warrant inclusion of VCSH/-SHRA attm, but best chance would likely be at SLK/MPV. Will continue to monitor. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA over the mtns. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA. Friday: MVFR. Definite RA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... The WSR-88D at Burlington, VT (KCXX) will be unavailable from Tuesday May 23, 2017 through Friday May 26, 2017. During the outage, radar coverage is available from adjacent radar sites including Montague, Albany, and Buffalo, NY and Gray ME. A new signal processor will be installed, which replaces obsolete technology, improves processing speed and data quality, provides added functionality, and supports IT security. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...Team BTV

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