Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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326 FXUS61 KBTV 220319 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1119 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure area over southern Quebec will continue to move east overnight, with a few lingering showers and patchy drizzle across the North Country. An upper trough will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes on Sunday and will remain over the North Country through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1117 PM EDT Friday...A prevailing moist W-SW low-level flow will continue overnight, maintaining abundant low clouds across the North Country. Main mid-level vort remains across swrn Quebec with slow moving sfc low (1008mb) just N of Montreal, Que. It appears we`ll have continued isold/sct showers overnight, and a gradual lessening of low-level wind field and near saturation suggests some patchy drizzle as well, especially in the mountainous areas. Low clouds will generally remain on Saturday, but with just a 20% chance of showers as best forcing for ascent shifts to the east of our region. Models showing clearing developing across the Saint Lawrence valley after midnight Saturday, which will work eastward as a ridge of high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will be mainly in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 354 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure the dominant feature in the short term with only a slight chance for showers near the international border Sunday night as a weakening boundary attempts to graze the North Country. Otherwise, a quiet period with max temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 Sunday and slightly cooler due to increased clouds on Monday, but remaining dry with northerly winds. Sunday night expect temperatures in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 354 PM EDT Friday...Monday night will see an increase in clouds from the south as coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Far reaching precip shield looks to bring chance of showers northward across south central VT and into the southern Champlain Valley early Tuesday. As the coastal low progresses northward up the Atlantic coast there`s the potential for precip to affect the entire area Tuesday afternoon. As this low shifts east Wednesday, drying trend will be brief before another system approaches from the west. In strong southerly flow, temperatures will climb into the upper 60s. Expect rain to return to the region Wednesday night, ahead of cold front. Chance of showers continues into Thursday as the front moves across the area. High pressure will build in behind the front with NW winds for Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Mainly MVFR becoming locally IFR CIGS overnight as low pressure moves slowly eastward across Quebec and a weak cold front moves southward through the region. Radar does show some light showers along the international border region and as low-level flow becomes W-NW with some CIGS should lower overnight early Sat with some drizzle possible. Expecting plenty of low clouds to linger across the region through 18Z Saturday, with CIGS rising slowly to mainly MVFR mtns and VFR valleys by 18z. Outlook... Saturday Night: Becoming VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 730 PM EDT Friday...Seiche effects have lessened with diminishing southerly winds across Lake Champlain. The gauge at Rouses Pt. has falling back below 100 ft, and we dropped the flood warning for Lake Champlain as a result around 5pm. That said, the lake level is expected to hover just below flood stage over the next several days. Drier weather conditions should preclude any significant runoff or changes in the lake level through the upcoming weekend. We will continue to monitor. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Sisson HYDROLOGY...Lahiff/WGH

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