Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 211807 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 207 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border through this evening. Otherwise, looking for dry conditions overnight and through much of the weekend. Northwest winds Saturday and Sunday will bring slightly cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring our next chance for widespread precipitation, with periods of showers expected Sunday night into Monday across the North Country.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 141 PM EDT Friday...Relatively quiet near-term forecast with a west-northwesterly mid-upper level flow regime in place across nrn NY and New England. Winds across the region have been SW-W this afternoon, and downslope warming allowing temps to climb into the mid 80s across much of the Champlain Valley and Connecticut Valley this afternoon. There is a weak trough/cold front across srn Quebec which will settle southward near the Intl. Border this evening. This sfc feature may provide just enough low-level convergence/ascent to yield a shower or thunderstorm (SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg), and have maintained 20% PoPs across the far nrn counties thru 01Z this eve. Thereafter, should be a relatively quiet night with weak nw wind shift and just some patchy nocturnal fog possible in the favored spots within the nrn Adirondack region and deeper river valleys of central/ern VT. Overnight lows generally 60-63F, except upr 50s in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Pleasant conditions Saturday with nwly winds 5-10 mph yielding slightly cooler high temps (upr 70s - lower 80s). Weak sfc high pressure builds swd from srn Quebec, keeping conditions quiet Saturday night with lows mainly in the 50s. Light wind conditions may yield some additional valley fog 06-12Z Sunday in the favored valley locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 358 AM EDT Friday...Trend in the latest NWP guidance for the latter half of the weekend is trending drier, though I will note that could easily change. The forecast largely depends on how low pressure evolves out of convection expected to fire up over the Wisconsin/Minnesota area this afternoon and night, and where the mid-level thermal packing sets up downstream. There`s a general consensus that the boundary will set up south of the BTV forecast area, with a comparison of the 00Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS showing the GFS as the outlier with the most northern track and deeper low. Don`t want to totally discount it, so I`ve offered a blended forecast for PoPs, trending towards the drier NAM/ECMWF. This results in low chance PoPs across our southern zones Saturday night, with only a slight chance north. Anything that does affect the area overnight will dissipate by Sunday morning with a mainly dry day expected, though chances for more widespread showers increases from the southwest in the afternoon as our next system approaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 358 AM EDT Friday...Sunday night through Tuesday continues to look like the main active period of the next 7 days as medium range guidance is in good agreement highlighting an upper trough digging through the Great Lakes Sunday night and across the Northeast through Tuesday with a series of embedded shortwave troughs bringing periods of precipitation to the North Country. Best dynamical forcing shifts over the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning with a decent plume of PWATs around 1.5" skirting southern areas and modest mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km supporting the idea of some thunder, but overall convective threat is rather low. Additional showers continue Monday afternoon right through Tuesday as the trough shifts over and east of the region by 00Z Wednesday. By Tuesday night surface high pressure and ridging aloft build into the area with sunny/clear conditions expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front approaches for Thursday renewing chances for showers along our northern border. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period, except IFR nocturnal fog SLK/MPV roughly 06-13Z Saturday. May also see an isold shra/tsra near the intl border thru 01Z Saturday. Will monitor radar trends, but likelihood of impact at any TAF location <20%. Light SW winds trend light west this evening and generally NW 5-10kts during the daylight hrs Sat. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.