Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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799 FXUS61 KBTV 071157 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 657 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA . OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...DEAL

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