Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310645 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY. SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026- 027-029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028- 035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM/HANSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/NEILES

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