Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010533 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1233 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will continue to spread across the North Country tonight with strong gusty winds possible through early Thursday morning. On Thursday, the rain will become focused around the higher terrain, changing to snow Thursday night. Terrain focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 937 PM EST Wednesday...Have updated to reflect current observations and radar trends. Steadier rain will move across the forecast area between 6z and 12z. Have increased overnight minimum temperatures. Clouds and precipitation will prevent temperatures from falling very much, especially with small dewpoint depressions. Previous discussion follows. Strong wind gusts expected tonight. Have issued SPS for subadvisory criteria. But cannot rule out isolated areas reaching advisory criteria, mainly near the summits. Large low pressure system will continue to push rain into the North Country, along with strong low level jet moving into the region. GFS and NAM indicate 50 kt jet at 850mb around 06Z, exiting NEwd around 12Z. Local BTV2km model shows SE jet resulting in strong downsloping wind gusts on western slopes peaking in strength at 06Z. As rain spreads across the area, question is how long will mixing last before stabilizing effects of the rain. BUFKIT models show mixing limited to about 950mb with winds decreasing starting 08z. Cooling 925mb temperatures early in the night, trending warmer after 06Z Thursday. The aforementioned strong gusty winds are expected to diminish around 09Z as BL shrinks. With rain and clouds, expect Min temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Come Thursday morning, main precip shield will lift to the north and east, with rain showers expected to concentrate around the higher terrain as we remain under cyclonic flow. Max temperatures will be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under the influence of a closed upper low over Quebec through the period, with chances for rain and snow showers through the period. The higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains will see some accumulating light snow through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 336 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under cyclonic flow Saturday and Saturday night from a departing surface low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes, so will have in chance pops for rain or snow showers Saturday and Saturday night. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great lakes through the period, with mainly fair and dry weather expected. GFS model has shown better run to run model consistency then the ECMWF, so have stuck with its solution. The ECMWF model shows a lack of run to run consistency, so have stayed with the GFS model from Sunday through Wednesday, which shows a strong upper ridge building over the north country from Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 06Z Friday...Active aviation weather conditions over the next 24 hours. Frontal system lifting northward into the region will bring widespread rainfall through 12Z Thursday, with precipitation becoming more intermittent/showery thereafter. Presently seeing VFR conditions at BTV/PBG/SLK, but overall trend will be toward MVFR overnight, with localized IFR for MSS/MPV/RUT. Gradual improvement is expected during the daylight hours on Thursday. Winds will also be an issue overnight...with gusts to 35kts at RUT through 06Z, and localized LLWS at MPV through 06Z. Will see winds shift into the SW during Thursday morning with passage of an occulded front. Winds will be locally moderately strong at KMSS on Thursday...SW 10-15kt with gusts to 25kts. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...A slow clearing trend is anticipated with IFR conditions becoming MVFR on Thursday Night into Friday. Mainly MVFR will prevail in the mountain TAF sites and a mix of MVFR/VFR in the valleys through the upcoming weekend. While drier conditions are expected Sunday and Monday, low level moisture will likely keep VFR/MVFR clouds around Sunday, less so Monday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos/Lahiff

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