Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211734 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 134 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE 60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NASH

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