Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010508 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT 05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS. THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT. ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT. UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF 00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...WGH/SLW

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