Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241756 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG, BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW- LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT. GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW. USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50% CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE STORM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK. 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. 00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...NEILES MARINE...SISSON

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