Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 220319
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1119 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017
A low pressure area over southern Quebec will continue to move
east overnight, with a few lingering showers and patchy drizzle
across the North Country. An upper trough will bring a slight
chance of rain showers to the North Country on Saturday. A ridge
of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes on Sunday
and will remain over the North Country through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1117 PM EDT Friday...A prevailing moist W-SW low-level flow
will continue overnight, maintaining abundant low clouds across
the North Country. Main mid-level vort remains across swrn
Quebec with slow moving sfc low (1008mb) just N of Montreal,
Que. It appears we`ll have continued isold/sct showers
overnight, and a gradual lessening of low-level wind field and
near saturation suggests some patchy drizzle as well, especially
in the mountainous areas. Low clouds will generally remain on
Saturday, but with just a 20% chance of showers as best forcing
for ascent shifts to the east of our region. Models showing
clearing developing across the Saint Lawrence valley after
midnight Saturday, which will work eastward as a ridge of high
pressure builds east from the Great Lakes Highs on Saturday will
be mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Saturday night
will be mainly in the 30s.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 354 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure the dominant
feature in the short term with only a slight chance for showers
near the international border Sunday night as a weakening
boundary attempts to graze the North Country. Otherwise, a quiet
period with max temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 Sunday
and slightly cooler due to increased clouds on Monday, but
remaining dry with northerly winds. Sunday night expect
temperatures in the 30s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 354 PM EDT Friday...Monday night will see an increase in
clouds from the south as coastal low develops off the Carolinas.
Far reaching precip shield looks to bring chance of showers
northward across south central VT and into the southern
Champlain Valley early Tuesday. As the coastal low progresses
northward up the Atlantic coast there`s the potential for precip
to affect the entire area Tuesday afternoon. As this low shifts
east Wednesday, drying trend will be brief before another system
approaches from the west. In strong southerly flow, temperatures
will climb into the upper 60s. Expect rain to return to the
region Wednesday night, ahead of cold front. Chance of showers
continues into Thursday as the front moves across the area. High
pressure will build in behind the front with NW winds for
Thursday night into Friday.
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Mainly MVFR becoming locally IFR CIGS
overnight as low pressure moves slowly eastward across Quebec
and a weak cold front moves southward through the region. Radar
does show some light showers along the international border
region and as low-level flow becomes W-NW with some CIGS should
lower overnight early Sat with some drizzle possible. Expecting
plenty of low clouds to linger across the region through 18Z
Saturday, with CIGS rising slowly to mainly MVFR mtns and VFR
valleys by 18z.
Saturday Night: Becoming VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...Seiche effects have lessened with
diminishing southerly winds across Lake Champlain. The gauge at
Rouses Pt. has falling back below 100 ft, and we dropped the
flood warning for Lake Champlain as a result around 5pm. That
said, the lake level is expected to hover just below flood stage
over the next several days. Drier weather conditions should
preclude any significant runoff or changes in the lake level
through the upcoming weekend. We will continue to monitor.