Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011806 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 106 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end of the week, and into the first half of the weekend. Shower will become more terrain focused heading into this afternoon, while transitioning to snow over the higher elevations. Terrain focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday as well, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 106 PM EST Thursday...No major changes from the previous forecast. Previous discussion from 948 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing scattered light rain showers across the north country at this time. Visible satellite loop showing some sunny breaks across portions of western and south central Vermont at this time. Expecting these sunny breaks will be brief, with skies becoming mostly cloudy by early this afternoon. Have dropped the mention of drizzle in the forecast and will just mention a chance of showers for the remainder of today. Temperatures in a few locations have already exceeded previously forecasted highs for today, so have made some adjustments to max temperature forecast for today. Previous discussion from 638 AM EST Thursday...Well advertised deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to influence the North Country`s weather through the next 24 hours as an occluded front pushes through the region. Widespread frontal rains and gusty southeasterly winds earlier this morning have shifted east of the area with some lingering scattered showers currently across eastern Vermont. As we head into the late morning to early afternoon hours, precipitation will increase again in areal coverage this afternoon but becoming more terrain focused across the Adirondacks and northern Greens. Winds will shift to the west/southwest, and be fairly gusty up to 25 mph in spots, but not as strong as last night. Temps aloft begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well, with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the surface, temps go just about no where from current readings across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day generally ranging through the 40s. For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing hold temps in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday...By Friday into Saturday the large- scale upper low/cyclonic gyre will slowly translate east across southern Quebec and into the maritimes by late in the period. Background synoptic flow will transition from west/southwesterly to northwesterly over time and with ample low to mid level moisture scattered to numerous orographically-enhanced rain and snow shower activity looks likely. Highest coverage should occur on Friday with passage of the primary thermal trough with coverage slowly waning on Saturday. With abundant cloud cover narrower than normal diurnal temperature swings are expected with highs in the 40s on Friday cooling to the 30s on Saturday. Lows Friday night ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday...Any lingering scattered rain/snow shower activity then comes to an end Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will set the stage for fair and dry conditions on Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the 30s. By Monday into Tuesday of next week sensible conditions shouldn`t be all that bad. A dampening mid-level trough will pass through the region on Monday with just an outside chance of a few rain or snow showers and some clouds, otherwise dry weather should prevail with at least some partial sunshine expected. Temperatures again within a few degrees of seasonal early December norms. Looking further out into later next week medium range solutions continue to show a general re-amplification of the flow across the lower 48 as a pronounced early-season arctic surge pushes southward into the Rockies and northern high plains. This will eventually set the stage for cyclogenesis across the central plains which will track northeastward over time. Rather significant differences remain however on where this will occur with the operational GFS remaining on the more progressive side of the guidance. For now have generally offered a gradual increase in pops/clouds from Wednesday onward as threat of rain/snow shower activity returns with initial warm thermal advection. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly mostly cloudy skies expected through the period as the region remains under cyclonic flow from a closed upper low over Quebec. Expecting VFR with areas of MVFR ceiling with scattered rain and snow showers expected through the period. Snow showers will be mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West- southwest surface winds will gust from 15-25 knots through the period. Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday... 18Z Friday through 18Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 18Z Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...WGH/Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH

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