Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140752 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 107 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SCATTERED RW/TRW FOR MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...WITH ACTIVITY STILL MVG NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDEXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE AUSABLE RIVER AS ONE GAGE JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. THIS FLOODING IS DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...BY TOMORROW THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED INTO MILD/WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES. TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING...THE H5 FLOW IS SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/WRN DACK COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TO WARM...AND CONSIDERING BACK-TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS AT 500-1000M SUGGESTS SOURCE AIR WILL COME FROM THE GA/SC AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOLID 70S TO PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SO IT APPEARS THEY`LL BE JUST OUT OF REACH. IT WILL ALSO TREND QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DEEPENING PBL MIXING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST SPOTS LOOKS ON TRACK. COULD SEE GUSTS A TAD HIGHER ABOVE 40 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND IF FUTURE MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY. THEN CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW. LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (BTV FOR EXAMPLE) LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 60F MARK. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO VERMONT LATE...BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT...ESP EASTERN VT. STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. INCREDIBLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT E-W ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD RAW BTV4 T PROGS...SUGGESTING EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S...CRASHING SHARPLY BY DAYS END INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST. INDEED...TEMPS MAY FALL AS MUCH AS 15 DEG IN THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND FROPA IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THEN A WET SNOW/SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...AND EARLY EVENING INTO VT BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS FRONT CLEARS EAST. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I`VE SUGGESTED 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY FLOORS...BUT EVEN HERE A QUICK/WET DUSTING-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUITE A CHANGE FROM MONDAY`S WARM TEMPERATURES INDEED! BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS WELL EAST AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. AS SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL TREND QUITE CHILLY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LAST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN VERMONT BY 08Z. THE MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT AFTER 00Z...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 03Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...WGH/JN SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...JMG

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