Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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632 FXUS61 KBTV 261928 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 328 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The low pressure system that brought all the rain to the North Country over the past 24 to 36 hours continues to move eastward. This will allow showers to come to an end tonight...but plenty of cloud cover will exist. Areas of fog are expected to develop as well. Otherwise...the news is good with respect to the Memorial Day Weekend as dry weather is expected for Saturday and Sunday along with a warming trend. At this time it does look like showers will return to the area late Sunday night into Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...Upper low in the Gulf of Maine late this afternoon will continue to move eastward tonight. This will help to bring showers to an end later tonight...but based on satellite imagery see no reason why we do not stay cloudy all night. Plenty of low level moisture will exist and cannot rule out the development of some fog and have included in the forecast for later tonight...mainly after midnight. Lows tonight should be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...The bottom line is we are looking at a warming and drying trend Saturday into Sunday. We should still see plenty of clouds around through mid-afternoon on Saturday before more noticeable clearing finally takes place. This will temper highs just a little with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected. Despite the clouds no precipitation is expected. The dry weather continues right into Sunday as upper ridge builds into the region. Looking for more sunshine than Saturday and even warmer temperatures with highs generally in the 70s. No precipitation is expected. The pattern will change Sunday night as upper trough moves toward the region. Clouds will be on the increase along with increasing chances for precipitation...especially after midnight. The clouds and precipitation in the southwest flow will help keep low temperatures up with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...Unsettled period starts with a surface low pressure system over eastern Ontario bringing a frontal boundary through the North Country on Monday. Showers and possible thunderstorms will accompany this front along with cloudy skies. The surface low is associated with a 500mb closed low that will sit over the northern Great Lakes region through mid-week, with several areas of vorticity rotating about it. This will provide the North Country with several bouts of rain showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. On Wednesday, most GFS and ECMWF show the 500mb low shifting east into Quebec and weakening. This will provide widespread precipitation with another chance for thunderstorms for portions of the North Country. A few more shortwave troughs will affect the area through the rest of the work week. In summary, there will be several chances for rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. There will be breaks in the showery activity and even breaks of sunshine from time to time. Seasonable temperatures expected for this time of year. Daytime max temperatures will generally stay in the 60s to low 70s and min temperatures will range from the 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Extensive area of clouds will persist over the area through 14z before gradually decreasing in areal coverage. Most of this period will see ceilings in the MVFR and VFR categories...but there will be periods between 06z and 12z of IFR ceilings. With respect to visibilities...looking at VFR through about 06z with periods of MVFR due to rain showers. A better chance of MVFR and IFR visibilities due to fog will exist between 04z and 14z with LIFR and VLIFR visibilities at KSLK and KMPV. After 14z all sites should trend toward VFR visibilities. Winds will generally be from the northwest to northeast at speeds under 10 knots through the entire period. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Evenson

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