Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281735 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 135 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK). TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH) WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND 5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. 12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...KGM

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