Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232033 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 333 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM -12F TO -2F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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