Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262341 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 741 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 741 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MORE TIED TO DYNAMIC SUPPORT UPSTREAM ACROSS CANADA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. OTHERWISE...ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT DRIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. STILL LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PROBABILITIES THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRYING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MORE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE THE GFS LEANING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF. AFTER THAT BOTH MODELS LOOK FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL POPS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEK. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS ON POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND KEEPS THINGS DRY FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY WHILE SLOWING AND DEVELOPING THAT SHORTWAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE OPENING IT BACK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SUPERBLEND AGREES WITH THE GFS TIME LINE SO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS STAYING DRY OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 NOT BEING OUT OF REACH. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT SILK. NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS...MAINLY VFR WITH CEILINGS 3500-6000 FEET...LOWEST LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME LOWER CLOUDS PUSH EASTWARD FROM CANADA. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE 06Z- 15Z THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY AT SILK WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACT MINIMAL...SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FROM 4-8 KNOTS THURSDAY...EXCEPT NORTH/NORTHEAST AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRI - 18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUE...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

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