Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210522 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 122 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION. ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE. HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SO STAY TUNED. GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR. 12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING. 00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...JMG/RJS

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