Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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281 FXUS61 KBTV 220850 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 350 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy and unseasonably warmer weather will continue for the North Country through the weekend. The start of the work week brings a more active period of weather. A moisture laden low pressure system will slowly track towards the northeast from the Gulf coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country, along with the potential for strong and gusty winds, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Behind that low pressure system expect continued unsettled weather with temperatures still unseasonably mild. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1143 PM EST Saturday...Fog will remain the forecast challenge through the overnight hours. Seasonable high dewpoints and dewpoint depressions between 1-3 degrees has combined to see patchy dense fog already formed across much of northern New York. Expect overcast skies through the overnight hours with fog developing across most of the North Country this evening. With the fog and overcast skies we may be a degree or two warmer than the current min forecast but I left it along for the time being. High pressure at the surface and aloft through 500 mb will continue through the near term period, although the surface ridge shifts east to the Gulf of Main coast while upper ridge flattens in advance of approaching trough. Plenty of moisture locked near the surface below 850 mb, and while some webcams are showing breaks in the overcast expect skies to remain predominantly overcast through the near term period. Despite the cloud cover temperatures will remain mild and show little diurnal change. Overnight lows in the 30s limited by cloud cover and dewpoints in the low 30s, while max temps Sunday similar to today in the upper 30s to low 40s. Patchy light fog will redevelop tonight in moisture laden boundary layer. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EST Sunday...High pressure retreating far to our north and east and mild air over the North Country will set up for complex thermal profiles as low pressure system approaches from the DelMarVa coast Monday night. Precip north of the low will spread from south to north accompanied by a tight pressure gradient and strong easterly 850mb jet. As precip spreads across the North Country, NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show warm layer mainly between 800-700mb resulting in widespread wintry mix into Tuesday morning. Models currently suggest sleet/snow mix being the predominant PType for most of the area. With initial surge of moisture expect most areas to see 1-4 inches of snow sleet mix through Tuesday morning. As low continues to track near the coast, reaching SE Long Island midday Tuesday PWATS increase to around three quarters of an inch Monday night and Tuesday. Associated 500mb trough becomes more negatively tilted resulting in warmer air aloft moving into eastern VT and transitioning precip to rain for the latter half of Tuesday. The surface low continues NEwd toward the coast of Maine into Tuesday night with colder air eventually moving into the North Country and ending the precip at snow as it begins to taper off Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Storm total snow/sleet accumulations through 12Z Wednesday will generally range from 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible depending on how long the warm layer remains in place, how quickly the colder air moves in as the surface low moves NE. The strong 850mb jet Monday night into early Tuesday will lead to downsloping winds, easterly slope enhanced precip and westerly slope/valley shadowing. With steady precip and cloudy skies, do not think low level jet will be able to fully mix down, resulting in gusts of 20 to 30 mph in most valleys with stronger gusts for south central Vermont of 30 to 40 mph and higher at the summits of Vermont and northern NY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 350 AM EST Sunday...Lingering snow showers expected but overall active period continues as we remain under 500mb troughiness. Quick moving low forms in the lee of the Rockies and arrives for the latter half of Wednesday with rain/snow showers expected to be light. Low chances for rain/snow showers continue into the weekend. Above normal temperatures close out the work week with a cooling trend. Saturday temperatures strive to be within 5 degrees of normal for late January.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06Z Monday...Low level moisture trapped beneath inversion layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs with HIR TRRN OBSCD. The inversion doesn`t look likely to break so the low level stratus will persist through the TAF period with patchy fog across the northern New York sites. Expect MVFR ceilings at all sites except IFR at SLK/MSS. Late in the TAF period by 00-06z tomorrow expect the inversion to finally break and see gradual improvement towards VFR ceilings. Visibilities will be reduced to MVFR/IFR at MSS/PBG/SLK due to the patchy dense fog. Expect visibilities to improve shortly after daybreak tomorrow in the 12-13z time frame. Outlook 06Z Monday through Thursday... 06z Sunday - 18z Monday...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility Sunday night and Monday improve to VFR for a short time Monday. 18z Monday through Thursday...Conditions deteriorate to IFR with widespread wintry mix of precipitation moving in late Monday into Tuesday, then temperatures cooling to support snow through Thursday. Strong southeast downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in excess of 25kts possible. Brief period of improving conditions possible early Wednesday, before occasional SW renews. Thursday area coverage of showers becomes more patchy through Thursday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Deal

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