Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 301901 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 301 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY, THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY ACTIVITY SO FAR. LIMITED CAPE OF 500 J/KG SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTN. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-81F. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY. MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING, BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. 06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.