Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181930 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH

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