Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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071 FXUS61 KBTV 041118 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 618 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT A RETURN TO COOLER MORE SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 618 AM EST THURSDAY...UPDATE TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS VT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SSW TO NNE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY INTO THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DATA TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND BLEND WITH EXTANT FORECAST FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM EST THURSDAY... WELL, WE ENDED UP KILLING TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE YESTERDAY EVENING BREAKING BURLINGTON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON BOTH THE 3RD AND 4TH AT LOCAL MIDNIGHT WITH A READING OF 54. SO GOES IT IN THIS UNPRECEDENTED WARM WINTER WITH BURLINGTON NOW HAVING SET 5 NEW RECORD HIGHS FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH TODAY. IN TERMS OF TODAY`S WEATHER THAT MILD TREND CONTINUES, THOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE LAGGING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT OCCLUDED LOW THAT PRODUCED OUR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY. 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES STEADILY COOL THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS SFC READINGS WON`T CLIMB TOO MUCH FROM MORNING VALUES, GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY OR PERHAPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, SINCE WE`RE STARTING SO MILD THOSE READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS VT, AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES. WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND EVOLVING H5 UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST VARIABLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE ALSO COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME MODEST RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN CONTINUED VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. COLD THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S ACROSS VT, AND FROM 15 TO 20 ACROSS NORTHERN NY. THESE VALUES ARE A TAD ABOVE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF SNOW COVER I FELT LEANING A TAD ON THE WARMER SIDE MADE SENSE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EST THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY. AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS WEAK THOUGH SO AS THE ENERGY FROM THE 500MB VORT CROSSES, I DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES BETWEEN 515 AND 518 AND 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -8 TO -11 EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND THE ADIRONDACKS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THOSE 925MB TEMPS AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND THUS FRIDAY WILL END THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN BURLINGTON AT 2. SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EST THURSDAY....BY SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE RESULTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LIKELY BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT 925MB SO CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL BRING THE CLOSEST DAY TO NEAR NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. THEN THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DEVELOPING AT 500MB. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION BEING THE MOST LIKELY. AS SUCH I STUCK VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BOTH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BLEND OF THESE TWO POINTS TO A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH BUT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD NEED OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING THAT SECONDARY LOW AGAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE GFS IS REALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CONSISTENT INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUN. AS SUCH THE BIG PICTURE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AND THERE WILL BE A POTENT AIRMASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH 4-8 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER A 3 DAY TIME PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KRUT THROUGH 15Z AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT KSLK THROUGH 18Z. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KRUT/KMPV THROUGH 14/15Z AND A STRAY FLURRY POSSIBLE AT KSLK, OTHERWISE DRY CONDS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 6 TO 12 KTS AND OCCNLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND ABATING AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRI-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-12Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MON ONWARD...VFR AT VT TERMINALS AT KPBG. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KMSS/KSLK MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT ON FEBRUARY 3RD. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 49 SET IN 1991. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY ON FEBRUARY 3RD. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1984. ADDITIONALLY, AS OF 12:00 AM FEBRUARY 4, THE TEMPERATURE WAS 54 DEGREES IN BURLINGTON SO A PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET FOR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 52 SET IN 1991. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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