Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101706 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 106 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 934 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. SHALLOW CUMULUS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ONLY TWEAK IS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ZERO FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...IT WILL BE RATHER COOL TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME COOLER OUTLIERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND A BIT MILDER IN VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE RESULT BEING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS MODERATE NICELY AFTER THE CHILLY START. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 12C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND IT WILL TURN A BIT MORE HUMID AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SEVERE OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE REGION PUSHES A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EARLY ARRIVAL TIME...THINKING SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT MUCH OVERALL DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT SO THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS COMES TUESDAY THOUGH AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY SEVERE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKS EVENT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST AND UPPER TROUGH TRACKING OVERHEAD SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK SEASONAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS BROUGHT FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND WILL BRING SKC TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR BR AT MPV/SLK/RUT FROM 08-12Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. BUFKIT IS ALSO NOT INDICATING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...NEILES

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