Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 253 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 217 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 24 HRS OF WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING (AFTER BEING WELL INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE AND BRIEFLY REACHING 50 AT BTV EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING). THAT SAID...THE PREVAILING WESTERLY 950-850MB FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS MAINTAINING TRAPPED STRATUS LAYER FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS...INCLUDING THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE IN MOST SECTIONS...AIR MASS REMAINS MILD BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 0C TO -3C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ALSO LOOKING AT A VERY MILD START (CLIMO AVERAGE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS FOR DEC 26TH). TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS, GENERALLY REACHING 38-45F RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN W-WSW AT 10-15 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 MPH. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FOR INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND NRN GREENS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OVER THE SUMMITS THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 217 AM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WITH A MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE INTL BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVAILING STRATUS...AND 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS 3-4KFT AGL. MAINTAINED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. ALSO STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS WITH CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT (15DEG ABOVE NORMAL) FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ON SATURDAY (10-15DEG ABOVE NORMAL). SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SWLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF DUSTING-2" SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PBL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AS SHOWERS END. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NWLY WINDS WITH QUASI-STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR MOST SECTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 233 PM EST THURSDAY...BIGGEST ISSUE IN EXTENDED PERIOD IS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND COLD FRONT LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER FLOW IS WESTERLY IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MID WEEK ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PLUNGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CONUS. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY FALL TO NEGATIVE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY. FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND NO ADDITIONAL COOLING OR WARMING FOR THAT MATTER. GRIDDED MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND WEREN`T SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS SO ADJUSTED THOSE UP A DEGREE OR TWO. FROM MID WEEK ON WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COLD TEMPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AND HAD TO DRAW IN POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WEST ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR PREVAILS WITH GUSTY WINDS, EXCEPT FOR KSLK WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN MVFR CIGS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5-15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORM WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BEFORE DAWN, EXCEPT AT KMSS WHICH WILL SEE WINDS CHANNELED UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, KEEPING GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL BUT KSLK. KSLK EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THIS MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT KSLK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS FOR WIND, EXPECT SUNRISE TO BRING A TEMPORARY END TO GUSTS, WHICH LOOK TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...KGM

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