Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021908 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 308 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY). FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN. DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA. THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW

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