Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150559 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 159 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8". ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS. WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE. BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016. NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...RJS

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