Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150538 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1238 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for a continuation of dry weather. Clear skies and light winds tonight will bring the North Country another night of below zero temperatures. A warming trend will begin on Monday with highs in the teens to around 20 and then in the 20s on Tuesday. The threat of light snow will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1214 AM EST Monday...Quiet but cold weather in store overnight as a surface arctic high centered over southeastern Canada shifts northeastward. Under the surface high, winds are light to calm and skies are clear, allowing for effective radiational cooling in the overnight hours. A fairly cold polar airmass is overhead, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -20 degrees C throughout the forecast area. Deep snowpack over the northern portion of the forecast area will also aid in rapid cooling in the overnight hours. Have made minor adjustments to the temperature forecast to account for the accelerated cooling in the early overnight hours. Expect widespread overnight temperatures below zero, with temperatures dipping to the -20s in areas with the deepest snowpack (northern New York and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Flow aloft in the short term will generally be from the southwest as an upper level trough approaches the region. Clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for some light snow...especially Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not expecting a lot of precipitation and when all is said and done its looking like 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Monday night through Tuesday night time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 253 PM EST Sunday...12z guidance offered no big changes to the forecast. There are model to model differences, though but nothing to suggest any significant weather maker through Saturday. Stuck with the model blend output as it seemed to offer a good compromise between all the smaller variations between models, while still capturing the larger scale trends. The general scenario still looks to go this way... Wednesday: upper trough will swing through, however the associated surface low will remain well of the coast, so best chances of any precipitation will be east of the region. Surface high pressure moves in so generally dry for the western half of the region. Thursday/Friday: shortwave will push across sometime during the period (Euro says Thursday, GFS says Friday), but in either case it`s within a relatively dry northwest flow setup, so only small chance for snow showers -- especially higher terrain Saturday/Sunday: flow aloft turns westerly, allowing a milder airmass of Pacific origin to make it`s way across the country. At lower levels, a strong high develops off the southeast US coast, resulting in a south/southwest flow to develop in our region. This will advect in warmer air at low levels. ECMWF is warmer, showing 850mb temperatures by Sunday of +4 to +7C (suggesting highs nearing 50), while the GFS has -2 to +2C (suggesting highs near 40). At this point, the blend with it`s mid 40s look good, though I have a sneaky suspicion future guidance will trend toward the warmer solution. Could be a few rain showers around, especially Sunday. Just a quick peek further into the future. Looks like a relatively strong low pressure will affect the region early next week bringing mild temperatures and rain. We`ll have some snowmelt and perhaps some hydro concerns, especially if we have ice jams still in place from this weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and calm to light winds will prevail through the TAF period with surface high pressure overhead. Expect scattered high level clouds to move in between 15Z and 00Z in advance of the next system, with the clouds thickening and lowering to 100-150 AGL between 00Z and 06Z. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...RSD SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...RSD

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