Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211429 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1029 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1028 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR TRENDS. THE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF KMSS...BUT THEY SHOULD FILL IN MORE OVER THE NEXT HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVER ERN VT PRIOR TO NOON TOO. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO M40S IN THE DAMP AIR MASS. SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE WITH THE TEMPS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION... THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN... ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS FROM THE NE AT KMSS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVENSON NEAR TERM...WASULA/EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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