Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201758 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 158 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM. THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE BEING REPORTED. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES. AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED, CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...TABER MARINE...LAHIFF

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