Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252326 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 626 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID- UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN. LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD. BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT 12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM DEVELPS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. 18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

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