Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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267 FXUS61 KBTV 221747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front crossing New York and Vermont through this evening will bring isolated showers, along with lingering low clouds and areas of fog overnight. Will see clearing Tuesday with a weak area of high pressure in place across the northeastern U.S. and temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few afternoon showers are possible Wednesday, but high temperatures will continue to moderate into the low to mid 70s. A large mid-level trough across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and associated developing surface low pressure will bring increasing chances for widespread rainfall across the North Country on Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 138 PM EDT Monday...Secondary surface trough axis shifting ewd across central NY/PA is associated with two bands of shower activity. The first is moving ewd across wrn/central VT at 1730Z. The second band of showers is across the Mohawk valley of NY at 1730Z, and is expected to expand nwd across the northern Adirondacks and shift across VT late this afternoon. Not expecting anything too significant in terms of QPF...with an additional 0.05 - 0.10" rainfall on top of the 0.3-0.5" that generally fell during the overnight/morning hours. Will see some gradual mid-level drying this evening (above 750mb) with WSWLY flow aloft, but pronounced low-level inversion should continue to hold low stratus in areawide with overcast skies and cool temperatures. Afternoon highs only expected to range from the lower 50s east of the Green Mtns, to near 60F at BTV, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY. The KCXX vad wind profile still indicates 25-30kt flow at 2-3kft AGL. Won`t fully see these winds at low elevations due to stability, but occasional gusts to 20-25 mph are possible thru this aftn. Expect winds remaining 20-25kts over the broad portion of Lake Champlain, and the Lake Wind Advisory continues there. Tonight through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into the region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along with moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in the usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains southwesterly, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride through the 500 mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it east. The low passes well enough north that the surface ridge will win out with no rain during this time, but will still be quite a few clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than monday with highs in the 60s/near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night dry with temps mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing. The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and 0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to 850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT. Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to 0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will mention likely pops for this period. Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into Saturday. Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip looks to be light and generally under 0.20". For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday...but only mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...Main aviation wx concern will be low cloud trends and possible fog overnight, especially during the pre-dawn period (06-11Z). Overall, abundant MVFR to IFR ceilings (low stratus deck) expected through 12Z Tuesday. A weak sfc trough/cold front crossing the region from west to east will bring isold -SHRA 21-03Z. Thereafter, a weak sfc ridge will build newd from wrn NY and wrn PA. This will allow for diminishing winds and lowering ceilings (with strong inversion layer in place) into the IFR category 03-12Z Tuesday with TRRN OBSCD. The one exception should be KMSS. At KMSS, should see just enough SW flow (5-8kts) to keep PBL mixed precluding low cloud and fog development locally there. At the other TAF sites, may see some patchy fog around, especially during the pre- dawn hours with periods of LIFR conditions possible 08-12Z. Winds generally south around 10kts through 02-03Z Tuesday. Thereafter, winds will shift into the SW-W with sfc trough passage. Should see improving CIG/VSBY conditions with ceilings lifting back to VFR by 13-15Z and skies trending SCT-BKN. Winds will be relatively light during the daylight hours on Tuesday, generally W-SW at 5-8kts. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Patchy morning FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA. Friday: MVFR. Likely RA.
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&& .MARINE...
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As of 145PM Monday...Southerly winds 15-25kts across Lake Champlain will diminish and shift into the southwest early this evening. The Lake Wind Advisory will likely be cancelled late this afternoon or early this evening.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos MARINE...Team BTV

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