Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252100 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS IN -5 TO -15 RANGE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO -5 ELSEWHERE. A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT GOING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH IN PLACE I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN 850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY. THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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