Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291718 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY... A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT 100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...TABER

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