Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261920 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 320 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THOUGH TODAY WILL START OFF DRY...INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A RENEWED THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 135 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACRS NORTHERN NY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES. BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...AND WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY ACRS OUR FA IN THE M70S TO L80S. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SATURDAY FOLLOWS... WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN NEARLY STATIONARY CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND LARGE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING PRECEDE A WEAK WARM FRONT ROUGHLY LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THAT FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY CREEP ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL START OFF WITH AT LEAST FILTERED SUN THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO INCREASE FURTHER FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 850 TEMPS OF +12C TODAY COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUD 10 MPH TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 435 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE PATTERN THEN TURNS MORE ACTIVE LATER TONIGHT/MOST OF SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT: A WEAK VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN WEST FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT...SPAWNING AREAS OF SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN SOME LATE TO AROUND 6C/KM TOWARD MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES OF -1 TO -2 PER 00Z NAM/WRF AND GFS LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. I USED NAM/SREF 3-HRLY POP AND ADJUSTED BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE...WITH LIKELY POPS (CHANCE THUNDER) ANTICIPATED AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S (COOLER MID-UPPER 50S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS). SUNDAY: STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE SHOWERS/THUNDER ONGOING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A GENERAL DECREASE IN POPS IS FORECAST AS WEAK 500-MB SHORTWAVE EXITS INTO EASTERN QUEBEC...BUT STILL HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SPC`S DAY2 OUTLOOK PARTS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THERE`S LARGE VARIATION IN FORECAST CAPE VALUES BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT (AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG AT VSF PER THE GFS). THOUGH I`VE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY...I DON`T THINK ACTUAL CAPE VALUES WILL GET THAT HIGH AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TO LIMIT BETTER SFC HEATING. WIND FIELDS INCREASE SOME. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT: IF THERE`S A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER (ALBEIT BRIEF) IT WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER WEAK 500 MB HEIGHT RISES EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. STARTED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MONDAY: A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES) WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THIS PERIOD - INDUCING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN VERMONT MONDAY...FOCUSED SOMEWHAT ON A MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. A BIGGER QUESTION IS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND WHERE/IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE NAM IS FURTHEST EAST WITH PROGGED LOW TRACK...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. IF THE GFS WERE CORRECT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN VERMONT GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT`S SOMETHING THAT WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCH. HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN VT TAPER TO CHANCE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR RAIN/CHANCE THUNDER. QPF FROM 06Z - 18Z MONDAY RUNS FROM .25" ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO .75"-1" FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 318 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE DECREASING TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DEPART INTO EASTERN CANADA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER BY THIS TIME IN POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS HAS TROUGH RETROGRADING. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN +10C TUE THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO 11-13C WED THRU FRI. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TUE/WED...MODERATING TO AROUND 80 THU/FRI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THROUGH 06Z. LOOKING AT SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM 06-15Z SUN. EXPECT MVFR IN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z...THEN IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS PM...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUN - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. 12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 12Z TUE ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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