Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192113 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 513 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of Vermont through about midnight tonight. Any of the showers or storms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall. Meanwhile only isolated to scattered showers are expected across northern New York. The area will remain under an upper level trough of low pressure on Tuesday and thus looking at the potential for more showers across the area. Gradual drying will take place on Wednesday and Thursday along with the return to more seasonal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 512 PM EDT Monday...Have coordinated with the Storm Prediction Center and we are in agreement the threat for severe thunderstorms has ended across Vermont. Thus have cancelled Severe Thunderstorm Watch 355 for Vermont. Threat for heavy rainfall continues over much of Vermont for the next few hours and have left the Flash Flood Watch in place for now...although at the rate the precipitation is moving...it may be able to end a little earlier than midnight. Previous Discussion... Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move north-northeast across much of Vermont through the evening hours. While the threat for organized storms producing hail and strong winds appears to be decreasing...very heavy rainfall will remain a concern. The severe thunderstorm watch for much of Vermont runs through 800 pm...but the flash flood watch for Vermont and Clinton/Essex counties of New York continues until midnight. Expecting isolated to scattered showers for the remainder of northern New York tonight. Convective threat comes to an end after midnight for all areas with just showers over the area with loss of instability.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 509 PM EDT Monday...Large upper trough remains over the eastern third of Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast regions. The cyclonic flow over the area suggests there will still be the threat of showers across the area on Tuesday...but conditions are not favorable for any organized convection. There may be some threat for thunder...but its fairly limited. High temperatures will be in the 70s to around 80. Areal coverage of showers will decrease Tuesday night then pick up again on Wednesday as upper trough axis finally shifts closer to the area. However...no strong signals with respect to forcing... shear...or instability to enhance the potential for thunder. Areal coverage of showers should be a little less than Tuesday and once again should decrease noticeably Wednesday night as upper trough axis moves east of the area. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday...Overall an active pattern with temperatures expected to be above normal through the weekend. Thursday will start off dry, under ridging at the surface and aloft. Embedded ripple of vorticity will approach the North Country late in the day, increasing chance for showers. Thursday night into Friday, a front will bring precipitation to the region but take its time moving across the region as upper level support in the form of mid- level vorticity will be lagging behind. GFS and ECMWF show boundary and associated precipitation affecting the North Country through Friday evening. Brief break in precip expected Friday night before the possibility of another wave bringing rain Saturday. Models diverge on next area of low pressure evolution and track for Sunday. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions to start the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving north northeastward into the forecast area. These showers and thunderstorms will produce brief periods of heavy downpours and deteriorate conditions to MVFR/IFR. Areas most likely to see thunderstorms this afternoon will be the Champlain Valley and areas east, especially at KRUT - which has a cluster of thunderstorms approaching from Hudson Valley and southern VT. Thunderstorms will produce strong gusty winds, heavy rain, gust fronts, possible turbulence and potentially small hail. Expect thunderstorm threat to diminish after sunset. Have lingering showers but not thunder after 03Z. With plentiful moisture still over the region heading into this evening, expect MVFR/IFR conditions to develop overnight. Chance for scattered light rain showers remains through the morning hours. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance scattered SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... A flash flood watch continues through midnight tonight across Clinton and Essex counties in New York and all of Vermont. High rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour with isolated higher amounts possible in the stronger convective elements will increase the potential for flash flooding. The greatest potential for flash flooding will be across the higher terrain and urban areas with poor drainage, and areas that have received rainfall in the past week, including Washington, Orange, and Windsor counties in Vermont, and where more active convection exists this afternoon, namely Vermont and Essex county New York. Small streams in all of these areas continue to run above normal for this time of year, and can be quickly overcome by excessive rainfall. Rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers are possible in areas of the most persistent showers and thunderstorms. We also tend to see washouts of ditches and the edges of unpaved roads in steeper terrain in storms with very high rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour, even if they are short lived. && .MARINE... A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory is in effect through this evening. The threat for thunderstorms will be increase as the afternoon wears on and any of the storms will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts...hail...frequent lightning...and very heavy downpours. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ028-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...Evenson/Hanson MARINE...Evenson

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