Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181144 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 744 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast of the United States will maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday. With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 740 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet wx through the near- term. A weak shortwave trough passing to our north across southern Quebec is bringing localized upslope/mountain cloudiness to the nrn Adirondacks and central/nern VT. These clouds will tend to dissipate by 14-15Z as trough shifts further east and daytime heating/mixing reduces low-level RH. Generally looking at clear skies otherwise today and tonight. The sfc ridge axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building shortwave ridging aloft later today will bring dry weather thru the period, with moderating temperatures. Should see highs into the mid 60s in valley locations today. Gradient flow moderate early this morning, with south winds 10-20 mph in the Champlain Valley during the pre-dawn hrs, but slackening p-gradient will result in S-SW daytime winds lowering to 5-10 mph. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight. Temperatures moderate further on Thursday, reaching the upr 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged by 00Z GFS to pass along the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions should preclude any precipitation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will lead to quiet weather conditions with mostly clear skies under broad subsidence. Anticyclonic flow will bring warming temps each day with 60s on Friday and upper 60s to 70 by Sunday. Each night we`ll radiatively cool and should see temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. The weather should be phenomenal for any outdoor activities planned over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...Coming out of the weekend expect a full latitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS which will bring several chances for showers to the region. The first chance will be a front that moves through late Monday into Tuesday with the best chance being towards the midweek as a closed low should develop over the Great Lakes and advances a stronger frontal system through the North Country. Global models are depicting a 995mb low over the Great Lakes with a 1020mb high out over the Atlantic. The resulting pressure gradient should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential for 15-25 mph with gust to 30mph of southwest funneled valley flow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry conditions. Upper level disturbance passing across srn Quebec is bringing localized MVFR ceilings to SLK, and BKN-OVC035-045 conditions at MPV/RUT. It appears any localized MVFR in the mountains will dissipate by 14-15Z this morning, leaving mainly clear conditions through the balance of the TAF period. SFC winds will remain S-SW thru the period, generally 5-10kts for the daylight hrs and thru tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October 18) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...Team BTV

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