Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210004 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 804 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE VERY QUICKLY. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND). TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE INTERESTING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET). TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT. BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE LUCKY). OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND & OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT WOULD JUST BE WASTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF. STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...RJS

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