Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220811 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 411 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure continues to become negatively tilted, keeping frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure system over the region through Saturday night/early Sunday. As the system moves past, colder air will filter in bringing with it northwest flow producing upslope rain and snow showers in higher elevations from early Sunday morning through Tuesday. Another surface low pressure system looks to affect the Northeast Thursday and into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 158 AM EDT Saturday...Light rain and drizzle plague most of the North Country with low clouds and N-NW flow this morning. More moisture and persistent rain expected to affect the region this afternoon and evening with enhancement over the terrain in the NW flow as the surface low move into northern Maine. Noticeably cooler temperatures to start the weekend as we move into he backside of the surface low. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 411 AM EDT Saturday...The region will remain under cyclonic flow through the period, as a surface low pressure area remains over Quebec. Have gone with a dry forecast for Sunday night, as mos pops are low. On Monday, forecast area remains under cold advection, with models hinting at some orographic rain and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains for Monday and Monday night. Have gone with slight chance pops in these areas for Monday and Monday night. Have kept valley areas such as the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys dry through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 411 AM EDT Saturday...The region will still remain under cyclonic flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Will continue with slight chance pops for orographic rain and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains for Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday night, a high pressure area will build into the region from the Great Lakes with fair and dry weather expected across the north country. Models showing some differences on Thursday, with the GFS model keeping the weather dry all day, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. GFS model also suggesting dry weather will continue into Thursday night and Friday as well. However, the ECMWF model starts Thursday off dry across the region, but brings rain showers ahead of a warm front into northern New York Thursday afternoon, mainly across the Adirondacks and Saint Lawrence valley, while the Champlain valley and Vermont remain dry on Thursday. Have adjusted superblend pops to the ECMWF timing, and will bring in showers to northern New york Thursday afternoon. Much like the GFS, the ECMWF model has trended slower with bringing in showers to the region on Thursday. Have gone with superblend pops for Thursday night and Friday, given model differences. Thus, will have a chance of showers in the forecast for Thursday night and Friday, per the ECMWF model. && .AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06z Sunday...Widespread LIFR and IFR persist through the morning hours. Expect conditions to gradually improve to MVFR/IFR during the early afternoon but with rain/rain showers persisting throughout the period. Winds out of the NW shift more westerly late today at 8-16kts. Gusts develop this evening at 17-27kts. Outlook 06z Sunday through Wednesday... 06z Sunday through 00z Monday: A prolonged period of unsettled conditions is expected with widespread MVFR/IFR in periods of rain. 00z Monday through 00z Wednesday: A mix of VFR/MVFR with upslope showers in NW flow. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday: IFR/MVFR fog development possible. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Through early this afternoon the heaviest rainfall has been located over the Saint Lawrence Valley and Northern Dacks (1 to 3.5 inches)...the amounts tapering off sharply with < 0.75 inch across the central/southern Champlain Valley and most of VT. Moving forward thinking additional rainfall will range between 1 and 2 inches with some isolated higher amounts along the western dacks possible. Several periods of rain still anticipated for system tracks along the coast and Atlantic moisture is advected back into the region tonight. Given the long duration and breaks in the precip intensity/coverage...we are not anticipating any hydro related issues associated with this event. However...some minor urban and street flooding is possible associated with the heavier rainfall rates through Saturday with leaves clogging storm drains. Otherwise...some modest rises in local rivers and streams are likely this weekend...but no widespread flooding is anticipated. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/MV NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...Taber is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.