Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280538 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1259 AM EDT SATURDAY... BASED ON RADAR TRENDS I CONTINUED LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS. CURRENT OBS AND COMPOSITE RADAR ARE SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER FRANKLIN AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MEETING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND TAPERING OFF. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW OVER THERE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...AGAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL JUST TO OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A CHANGE FINALLY TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN ENDING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO JUST A CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE COLDER AREAS. WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WED AND WED PM WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH FRI WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD IN MOIST NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. WEAK MID- LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WRN NY/WRN PA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY...RESULTING IN ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. EARLY THIS MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST PREVALENT ON THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT PBG/SLK. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH LOCALLY IFR AT RUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN GUSTING 16-20KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS

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