Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151817 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 217 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING 61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID- SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED. BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NASH

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