Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 031955 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 351 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE OVERCAST SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING. SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

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