Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270749 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 349 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH MANY SPOTS CLIMBING ABOVE 60 DEGREES. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CURRENTLY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WHICH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. STILL SEEING A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 925-850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-15C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD IN THE MID 60S WHILE EAST OF THE GREENS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A COUPLE OF 70 READINGS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EITHER WHERE 925-850MB WINDS STRENGTHEN THE MOST ON CHANNELED SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS WE`VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING TO EAST OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...AS BEST DYNAMICS TRACK UP TO WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT. PRECIP WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...PUSH INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NY...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND WESTWARD WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS..BUT SHOULDN`T REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE TRENDS IN THE DAY SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO START FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT 06Z MONDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT BY 18Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION BY 23Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY-18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH

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