Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050815 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 315 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, A SMALL PORTION OF WHICH MAY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPCETED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM EST FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY WEST WITH PRECIPITATION PROGGED TO AFFECT EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DRY WEATHER AND ONLY THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AFTER LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND PERUSING THE 00Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE I DID FEEL IT PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, SOME MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDSOR AND FAR EASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES. TYPICAL WITH ANAFRONTAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE PCPN SHIELD WITH DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WINNING OUT IN AREAS WEST OF THE GREENS AND NORTH OF ROUTE 4. AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST THIS AFTERNOON, PCPN WILL END SOUTHEAST AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OVER TIME LEAVING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST BY SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AREA WIDE UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BY TONIGHT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS LATER AT NIGHT AS FLOW BACKS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRDONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL HAVE INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIG OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REACHING OUR NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT WITH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA. MAINLY A COUPLE INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA...AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS MAINLY KEEPS US IN SOME OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. DETAILS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR WITH WHERE THIS STORM WILL PASS IN RELATION TO NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH ALSO LEAVES SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY UNCLEAR FOR OUR AREA. WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST...AND SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY...WILL LIKELY SEE A LONG PERIOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, TRENDING MAINLY SKC IN THE 20-00Z TIME RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN 6-12 KTS WITH OCCNL MODEST GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT VERMONT TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ABATE LATE. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR AT VT TERMINALS AND AT KPBG. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KMSS/KSLK MONDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...JMG/HANSON

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