Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S... EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY. ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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