Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160819 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 419 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY... ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST- EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE 925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC. WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING OUT TOWARDS 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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