Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241729 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST. BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE AREAS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK. DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT. IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...KGM FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS

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