-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 142335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PATCHY FROST EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING BREEZY SOUTH WIND CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS. AFTER THE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AND CLOSER TO MID-MAY
AVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO T/TD DATA AS WE
HEAD INTO THE THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ESSENTIALLY NO
CHANGES NEEDED AS INHERITED FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CONCERN FOR GARDENING INTERESTS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST
EXPECTED. STARTING MAY 15TH (TOMORROW)...THE GROWING SEASON IS
CONSIDERED ACTIVE FOR ALL AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.
THUS...TONIGHT/S FROST ADVISORY COVERS CENTRAL VT...THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THOSE WITH
TENDER VEGETATION ALREADY GROWING IN THEIR GARDENS MAY WANT TO
COVER THOSE PLANTS TO PROTECT AGAINST AREAS OF FROST FORMATION
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME FLAT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ADVANCE INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION IS SWRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PATCHY FROST GIVEN GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST ESPECIALLY CENTRAL VT. LOWS
TONIGHT 32-36 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 306 PM EDT TUESDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WARM FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN NY. BY MID-LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS 25-35 KTS BY AFTN ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

SOME SUN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH INCREASING MID-UPR
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. REGION OF 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS
EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTN THRU EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY 21Z WED THROUGH 03Z THU. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS
AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SWLY 850MB
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
OVERALL PRECIP AMTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UNDER A QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SOUTH FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WNW FLOW REGIME THURSDAY BRINGS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
NAM INDICATES CAPE VALUES 100-200 J/KG AROUND 18Z THU AND ANTICIPATE
SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTN. INDICATED POPS OF 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
AND GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. CLEARING CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW-MID 40S WITH A FEW MID-UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
FAR NERN KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE PRETTY QUIET FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERAL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH OF
COURSE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THEN TREND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES UNDER WEAKENING SFC RIDGE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-
LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. FRONT WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING FOR MSS/SLK AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN STEADIER RAIN.
HAVE JUST TREATED WITH VCSH FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MSS WITH THE WIND SHIFT HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...INITIAL MVFR SHOWERS END WITH
FRONT MOVING EAST AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD VFR. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO WEST.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT A SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER AT MSS...PBG...AND BTV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-006-008>012-016>019.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026>028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO