Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251721 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1221 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1150 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. AIRMASS RATHER DRY...THUS ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE IT. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING EVERYWHERE AND SHOULD PUT A HALT TO TEMPERATURES BUT THEY ARE ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS THUS HAVE MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MAINLY VERMONT WIT SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED -SHSN WITHIN ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD/SCT AND LIGHT WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HENCE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS/SKY COVER AND SLIGHT HOURLY TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. RATHER BALMY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE... SO JUST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND ONWARD WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THOUGH DIFFERENT IN TIMING...BOTH MODELS RIGHT NOW SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...THOUGH A COUPLE PERIODS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ARCTIC FRONT PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD SEEING DRIER AIR AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOST OF THE DAYTIME. AS THE FRONT CLEARS KMSS AND KSLK, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z/22Z. EASTWARD...SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACTS THAN AREAS WEST BETWEEN NOW AND 22Z. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAINLY AFFECTING KMSS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY 06Z, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SW-NW AT 3-8KTS WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SKIES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH ONLY SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING TIL MORNING, WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH/SLW NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...KGM

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