Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 250016
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
816 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Widespread snow, rain or mixed precipitation will sag south tonight
while gradually lessening in coverage as today`s warm front is
pushed southward by building high pressure to our north. Mainly dry
weather will continue to build across the area on Saturday as
the front continues to settle southward. The front will return
north as a warm front on Sunday into Monday with a return of
widespread rain, snow or mixed precipitation expected.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 816 PM EDT Friday...Complex forecast of wintry mix
continues as the warm front has moved further north than
previous forecasts. Mesoscale models, specifically the BTV4 show
this trend in radar reflectivity well. Expect the front to
begin its descent southward around 02Z, providing another round
of wintry mix with cooler temperatures at the surface expected.
This will likely result in a few hours of mainly snow and sleet.
As winds shift out of the North, drier air will filter in after
06Z and lead to diminishing coverage of precipitation. Come
09Z, expect all but the southern tier of FA to experience an end
to precipitation but continue to be under persistent cloud
cover with temperatures trending cooler. Expect morning lows
generally in the mid to upper 20s for the northern half of the
FA, and upper 20s to mid 30s for southern half. Additional half
inch (mainly in valleys) to 3 inches near the summits of snow
possible. Cold temperatures on already wet roads will make
On Saturday the cooler/drier airmass continues to slowly seep
southward our east-west oriented surface front sinks into
central NY into southern New England. Could still see some
lingering light rains/snows across our far southern counties in
the morning as the surface front stalls to our immediate south
and weak ripples of moisture track west-east along the boundary.
All and all conditions should be trending drier even here
however with our central/northern counties likely seeing partial
to perhaps some full sun by afternoon. Temperatures should
generally range from 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 east/south.
South edge of high pressure then continues across the area
Saturday night with our former front beginning to lift back
slowly north toward daybreak Sunday. Prior idea of clear to
partly cloudy skies for most of the night still appears
reasonable with highest coverage south. Lows should range from
10 to 20 north, and mid teens to lower 20s south.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM EDT Friday....Sunday and Sunday night look messy!
Hate that we`re still dealing with mixed precipitation for the
end of March. Sunday we will have warm air advection and some
light rain as warm front lifts North across our forecast area.
Temperatures will dip early during the overnight Sunday night,
then continue to warm through the overnight with general warm
air advection continuing. Pretty decent slug of precipitation
moves across our forecast area overnight and believe that we`ll
mainly have rain with some freezing rain east of the Green
mountains where the cold air tends to get stuck the longest.
Have leaned on the warmest guidance that I could find for Sunday
night, the BTV4 and blended with ConsShort. Then I used the
diurnal trend from ConsShort for temps and a GFS/NAM blend for
weather grids from mixed precipitation top down. Amount of QPF
that`s expected along with cold temps East of the Greens, can`t
rule out possibility of winter headlines at some point for
Sunday night into Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 237 PM EDT Friday...Rain will continue through the first
part of the day on Monday as well as warm air advection which
should shut down icing east of the greens by later in the
morning. Monday afternoon and overnight the precipitation will
become more orographically enhanced. Another upper level
shortwave pushes across our area on Tuesday bringing more
chances for precipitation, mainly rain. Precipitation continues
into Tuesday night, mixing with some snow, before shutting down
Wednesday morning. Will finally have a bit of a drying trend for
Wednesday through Thursday night, but more chances for
precipitation towards the end of the week. Still a very
difficult p-type forecast for the beginning of the week with
rain-snow line remaining very close if not right across our
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Wintry mix continues with IFR/MVFR
conditions. As warm front shifts southward, colder temperatures
filter in from north to south mainly after 06Z with IFR/LIFR
cigs possible, especially in continued mixed precipitation.
Drier air will also filter in, bringing an end to steadier
precipitation with most terminals trending precipitation- free
after 12Z Saturday. South winds 10kts or less shift northerly
after midnight, exception at KPBG which looks to shift northerly
earlier. Cigs transition to VFR from north to south as Canadian
high pressure begins to nose southward into the area Saturday
late morning through midday.
Outlook 00Z Sunday through Wednesday...
00Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR
/precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly
southward into the area.
12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation
and/or rain return to the region.
12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday...light and spotty mixed
precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains.
12Z Wednesday onward...trending VFR as High pressure builds into