Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191739 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will move from west to east across northern New England today through Friday. Expect showers to increase over the area this afternoon and tonight before ending early Thursday morning. Drier weather briefly returns Thursday afternoon but a second low pressure system moves in Thursday night and Friday morning for widespread rainfall across the region. Drier weather returns once again for Friday afternoon through the first part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 138 PM EDT Wednesday...Radar loop showing rain showers across northern New York and moving into western Vermont at this time. Have lowered max temperatures in a few other locations a bit lower for the remainder of today. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Really not a whole lot of change from the previous forecast thinking, or my own from yesterday with the main changes being to slow precip arrival Thursday night just a tad, and lower storm total QPF values slightly. Vertically stacked low pressure entering into the western Great Lakes Thursday night will track east/northeast over the Ontario/Quebec border by Friday morning, and further northeast into central/southern Quebec Friday night. A deep moisture feed on southwesterly flow between the low and high pressure anchored off the Southeast coast will spread steady rainfall across the North Country from west to east late Thursday evening through Friday morning with PWATS 2-3 standard deviations above normal producing 36 hour rainfall totals by Friday evening averaging around 0.75" with some isolated amounts up to and inch possible. Overall not looking for any widespread hydro issues with area waterways running high, but a few concerns remain. See hydro section below for the details. Relatively progressive nature of the system has the bulk of precipitation exiting to our east Friday afternoon as a mid-level dry slot builds in and the trailing surface cold front approaches. As the front swings through the region Friday night we could see a resurgence of precipitation across portions of central/northern Vermont as the flow turns west/northwest and is marginally blocked. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trend for the long term period will be towards quieter weather once we get through Saturday morning where the aforementioned surface low continues to exit east off the Maine coast Friday night, and the parent upper trough swing through. A few isolated to scattered showers will be around early Saturday morning, but by the afternoon surface high pressure begins to build southeastward from southern Ontario/Quebec and will dominate the North Country`s weather through Saturday night with dry conditions expected. For the Sunday/Monday timeframe overall we continue to highlight mainly dry conditions but the forecast area will be in a squeeze play between a northern stream trough and southern stream energy pulling through the central/south East Coast. The latest CMC and ECMWF support the northern stream system dominating and remaining unphased with only a thin ribbon of enhanced moisture swinging through the region Sunday night into Monday morning, while the GFS is slightly stronger with the southern stream. With either solution, we`ll offer low chance for showers across our southern zones during this period, but could see PoPs increasing with time is trends change. High pressure does look to return for Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through at least 18z with only mid and high level clouds moving into the region. Eventually showers and lower clouds will move in between 18z and 06z with MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities expected. Gusty south to southwest winds will also develop after 14z with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range through 00z before tapering off. Showers will also taper off after 06z. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... With two systems bringing rainfall to the North Country this week there are a few concerns on area rivers/streams/lakes which continue to run high with continued higher elevation snowmelt, albeit a bit slower lately due to seasonal temperature. Basin average QPF through Friday from the 2 storms will be in the 0.75-1.25" range across the region with latest ensemble and local model forecasts showing the potential for a few northern gages to reach action and minor flood stage by Friday afternoon. Lake Champlain continues to creep ever so slowly closer to flood stage (100 feet) every day, and expect minor flooding to occur by this weekend, while rivers of greatest concern to reach minor flood stage are the Ausable, Barton, Winooski, Mad, and Missisquoi at this time. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson HYDROLOGY...Lahiff

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