Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251347 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 947 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN VERMONT WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 947 AM EDT MONDAY...FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NRN VT THIS MORNING...WITH FEW VALLEYS QUICKLY BURNING OFF MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO REACH THE U60S-L70S. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THIS AFTN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE MTNS AS WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACRS NORTHERN NY AND MAINLY TRRN INFLUENCED OVER VT...GIVEN THE WEAK GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE WITH VALUES BTWN 15-16C BY 00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS 75 TO 80 BTWN 1500 AND 2000 FEET...AND L/M 80S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. THINKING SLK WILL BE AROUND 80F...MPV/MVL NEAR 82F AND BTV/MSS/VSF NEAR 85F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL START TO FLATTEN ON TUES...AHEAD OF S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT. WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PRIOR TO SFC BOUNDARY WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY ON TUES...WITH SOME INCREASE SFC DWPTS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A VERY WEAK 5H VORT SLIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BTWN 18Z-00Z ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 15 AND 16C ON TUES...SUPPORTING U70S/L80S MTNS TO M/U 80S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT GRADIENT TO INCREASE ON TUES AFTN...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV. A VERY WARM AND SLIGHTLY MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIDER CPV/SLV...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LATEST TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL TIME OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK 5H VORT SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH...WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ACRS THE SLV AND NORTHERN DACKS BTWN 03Z AND 09Z...AND SHIFT THE THREAT INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. GIVEN TIMING OF BOUNDARY ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND BEST ULVL DYNAMICS SLIDING TO OUR NORTH...THREAT FOR THUNDER LOOKS MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES <500 J/KG ON TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L/M 50S EASTERN VT/NEK TO NEAR 70F CPV/SLV...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT. WEDNESDAY...SFC BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE ULVL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WL CONT TO PUSH ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN THE TIMING OF SYSTEM BTWN 12Z AND 16Z...LIMITED INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACRS SNE. IF SYSTEM IS SEVERAL HRS SLOWER...THAN A BETTER CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. ATTM WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS WITH JUST A SCHC FOR THUNDER. ALSO...NOTED VERY LIGHT QPF FIELDS IN THE MODELS ACRS OUR CWA...SO ANY PRECIP WL THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL WL BE < 0.25". BTV4KM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS ACRS OUR DACKS AND SLV ZNS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...BUT SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS. TEMPS BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY ON WEDS...WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. BASED ON PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 16C ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL MENTION HIGHS M/U 80S NEAR VSF TO M/U 70S DACKS/SLV...WITH L/M 80S ANTICIPATED ACRS THE CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS AS OF 359 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL COOL TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RISK OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE AUGUST. 850 MB TEMPS OF +6 TO +8C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND DUE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY...WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR SOME WET WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MINS TRENDING MILDER DUE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOOK FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AVIATION PROBLEM FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING TAF SITES SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MSS AS WELL. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE NEAR BTV...AND HAVE INDICATED VCFG TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TILL 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE FOG WILL THEN DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z TUESDAY AT THE FAVORED SITES OF MPV/SLK WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 06-12Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 8 KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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