Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 142019 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 319 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet yet cloud weather continues tonight before high pressure provides some sunshine on Wednesday along with slightly warmer temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday with light rain and snow showers and minor accumulations across the higher terrain. A more significant storm system arrives by the upcoming weekend with breezy conditions and more widespread rain and snow shower activity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 257 PM EST Tuesday...Well, it`s November in the North Country and that can only mean 1 thing...clouds, clouds and more clouds (maybe that`s 3?). Despite surface high pressure and mid-level ridging building over the region, a pesky low level inversion has kept extensive cloud cover over the Northeast and upstream across Canada and the eastern Great Lakes today. We`ve even seen some isolated snow showers and flurries across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving north of the region this morning. Model guidance for tonight continues to be very optimistic showing rapid clearing, but satellite imagery tells a different story so I`m offering a more pessimistic forecast with cloudy skies through most of the night and some clearing beginning from west to east right around sunrise as the inversion holds tough. With light winds and abundant cloud cover, temps tonight should be similar to last night ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. After a partly to mostly cloudy sunrise, high pressure and subsidence aloft does look to win out, breaking the inversion and eroding cloud cover to partly to most sunny skies by mid- morning. High clouds do look to increase again though from the west in the afternoon ahead of our next system, but shouldn`t affect temperatures warming mainly into low to mid 40s range with no precipitation expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 257 PM EST Tuesday...Pattern turns active once again for the mid-week timeframe with little overall change made to the previous forecast thinking as a clipper surface low and potent mid-level shortwave trough look to bring a period of rain and snow showers to the region. Model consensus on the surface low track takes it from just north of the Great Lakes Wednesday night to south-central Quebec by Thursday evening with the attending warm front and overrunning precipitation moving into the forecast area Wednesday night, followed by the trailing cold front Thursday afternoon. Precipitation type will be largely dominated by boundary layer temperatures which will be steady or slowly rising through the 30s Wednesday night supporting a light mix of rain/snow in the valleys with more snow across the highest terrain. As surface temps continue to rise Thursday, precipitation will transition to mainly rain, before the cold front swing through after sunset changing precip back to primarily snow before ending. Overall not looking at a lot of QPF for this event, mainly in the 0.10-0.25" range with very minor snow accumulations on the valley floor (if any). Atop the higher peaks though, it still appears that snow will be the dominant ptype, so several inches of snow is expected, perhaps up to 4" or more. In addition, winds will become increasing brisk from the south Wednesday night along the warm front with gusts up towards 25 mph likely, then again post cold frontal passage Thursday night from the northwest in the 20-30mph range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 318 PM EST Tuesday...Upper ridge and accompanying surface high move across Friday for a bright but cool day with highs only in the lower 30s. Ridging quickly exits Fri ngt with return flow aloft and at the surface for increasing clouds...not as cold and some light precipitation in advance of northern stream system and surface low across Great Lakes moving toward and thru area Sat/Sat ngt. GFS and Canadian faster than ECMWF with this next system thus leaving area by 12z Sunday. Fast flow calls for quick WAA precipitation at the onset then spotty/intermiitent thereafter. A mix of wintry pcpn with no real accumulation expected, esp in the valleys. More replenishing cold on Sunday with trof and NW flow and unstable enough for some mountain snow showers and trof hangs thru early Monday before gradually exiting with brief surface high before perhaps another trof closing in by Tuesday afternoon. A definite look/feel of typical mid November for the North Country.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Extensive area of clouds will persist over the entire area through at least 06z Wed as double inversion likely to keep clouds/moisture intact. Most ceilings will be in the VFR and MVFR categories. Drier air and inversion dissipates toward 12z Wed for some clearing. Winds will be light and variable through the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.