Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151053 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 653 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND HEADED OUR WAY. THIS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION EVEN FURTHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT...NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40 KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005- 009-011-017>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...NEILES HYDROLOGY...JMG

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