Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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895 FXUS61 KBTV 250016 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 816 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread snow, rain or mixed precipitation will sag south tonight while gradually lessening in coverage as today`s warm front is pushed southward by building high pressure to our north. Mainly dry weather will continue to build across the area on Saturday as the front continues to settle southward. The front will return north as a warm front on Sunday into Monday with a return of widespread rain, snow or mixed precipitation expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 816 PM EDT Friday...Complex forecast of wintry mix continues as the warm front has moved further north than previous forecasts. Mesoscale models, specifically the BTV4 show this trend in radar reflectivity well. Expect the front to begin its descent southward around 02Z, providing another round of wintry mix with cooler temperatures at the surface expected. This will likely result in a few hours of mainly snow and sleet. As winds shift out of the North, drier air will filter in after 06Z and lead to diminishing coverage of precipitation. Come 09Z, expect all but the southern tier of FA to experience an end to precipitation but continue to be under persistent cloud cover with temperatures trending cooler. Expect morning lows generally in the mid to upper 20s for the northern half of the FA, and upper 20s to mid 30s for southern half. Additional half inch (mainly in valleys) to 3 inches near the summits of snow possible. Cold temperatures on already wet roads will make travel hazardous. On Saturday the cooler/drier airmass continues to slowly seep southward our east-west oriented surface front sinks into central NY into southern New England. Could still see some lingering light rains/snows across our far southern counties in the morning as the surface front stalls to our immediate south and weak ripples of moisture track west-east along the boundary. All and all conditions should be trending drier even here however with our central/northern counties likely seeing partial to perhaps some full sun by afternoon. Temperatures should generally range from 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 east/south. South edge of high pressure then continues across the area Saturday night with our former front beginning to lift back slowly north toward daybreak Sunday. Prior idea of clear to partly cloudy skies for most of the night still appears reasonable with highest coverage south. Lows should range from 10 to 20 north, and mid teens to lower 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 237 PM EDT Friday....Sunday and Sunday night look messy! Hate that we`re still dealing with mixed precipitation for the end of March. Sunday we will have warm air advection and some light rain as warm front lifts North across our forecast area. Temperatures will dip early during the overnight Sunday night, then continue to warm through the overnight with general warm air advection continuing. Pretty decent slug of precipitation moves across our forecast area overnight and believe that we`ll mainly have rain with some freezing rain east of the Green mountains where the cold air tends to get stuck the longest. Have leaned on the warmest guidance that I could find for Sunday night, the BTV4 and blended with ConsShort. Then I used the diurnal trend from ConsShort for temps and a GFS/NAM blend for weather grids from mixed precipitation top down. Amount of QPF that`s expected along with cold temps East of the Greens, can`t rule out possibility of winter headlines at some point for Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 237 PM EDT Friday...Rain will continue through the first part of the day on Monday as well as warm air advection which should shut down icing east of the greens by later in the morning. Monday afternoon and overnight the precipitation will become more orographically enhanced. Another upper level shortwave pushes across our area on Tuesday bringing more chances for precipitation, mainly rain. Precipitation continues into Tuesday night, mixing with some snow, before shutting down Wednesday morning. Will finally have a bit of a drying trend for Wednesday through Thursday night, but more chances for precipitation towards the end of the week. Still a very difficult p-type forecast for the beginning of the week with rain-snow line remaining very close if not right across our forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Wintry mix continues with IFR/MVFR conditions. As warm front shifts southward, colder temperatures filter in from north to south mainly after 06Z with IFR/LIFR cigs possible, especially in continued mixed precipitation. Drier air will also filter in, bringing an end to steadier precipitation with most terminals trending precipitation- free after 12Z Saturday. South winds 10kts or less shift northerly after midnight, exception at KPBG which looks to shift northerly earlier. Cigs transition to VFR from north to south as Canadian high pressure begins to nose southward into the area Saturday late morning through midday. Outlook 00Z Sunday through Wednesday... 00Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR /precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation and/or rain return to the region. 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday...light and spotty mixed precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains. 12Z Wednesday onward...trending VFR as High pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/KGM SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM

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