Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 191739
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017
A series of low pressure systems will move from west to east
across northern New England today through Friday. Expect showers
to increase over the area this afternoon and tonight before
ending early Thursday morning. Drier weather briefly returns
Thursday afternoon but a second low pressure system moves in
Thursday night and Friday morning for widespread rainfall across
the region. Drier weather returns once again for Friday
afternoon through the first part of the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 138 PM EDT Wednesday...Radar loop showing rain showers
across northern New York and moving into western Vermont at this
time. Have lowered max temperatures in a few other locations a
bit lower for the remainder of today. Otherwise, the forecast is
in good shape.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Really not a whole lot of change
from the previous forecast thinking, or my own from yesterday
with the main changes being to slow precip arrival Thursday
night just a tad, and lower storm total QPF values slightly.
Vertically stacked low pressure entering into the western Great
Lakes Thursday night will track east/northeast over the
Ontario/Quebec border by Friday morning, and further northeast
into central/southern Quebec Friday night. A deep moisture feed
on southwesterly flow between the low and high pressure anchored
off the Southeast coast will spread steady rainfall across the
North Country from west to east late Thursday evening through
Friday morning with PWATS 2-3 standard deviations above normal
producing 36 hour rainfall totals by Friday evening averaging
around 0.75" with some isolated amounts up to and inch possible.
Overall not looking for any widespread hydro issues with area
waterways running high, but a few concerns remain. See hydro
section below for the details.
Relatively progressive nature of the system has the bulk of
precipitation exiting to our east Friday afternoon as a mid-level
dry slot builds in and the trailing surface cold front approaches.
As the front swings through the region Friday night we could see a
resurgence of precipitation across portions of central/northern
Vermont as the flow turns west/northwest and is marginally
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trend for the long term
period will be towards quieter weather once we get through
Saturday morning where the aforementioned surface low continues
to exit east off the Maine coast Friday night, and the parent
upper trough swing through. A few isolated to scattered showers
will be around early Saturday morning, but by the afternoon
surface high pressure begins to build southeastward from
southern Ontario/Quebec and will dominate the North Country`s
weather through Saturday night with dry conditions expected.
For the Sunday/Monday timeframe overall we continue to highlight
mainly dry conditions but the forecast area will be in a squeeze
play between a northern stream trough and southern stream energy
pulling through the central/south East Coast. The latest CMC and
ECMWF support the northern stream system dominating and remaining
unphased with only a thin ribbon of enhanced moisture swinging
through the region Sunday night into Monday morning, while the GFS
is slightly stronger with the southern stream. With either solution,
we`ll offer low chance for showers across our southern zones during
this period, but could see PoPs increasing with time is trends
change. High pressure does look to return for Monday/Tuesday.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through at
least 18z with only mid and high level clouds moving into the
region. Eventually showers and lower clouds will move in
between 18z and 06z with MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities
expected. Gusty south to southwest winds will also develop after
14z with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range through 00z before
tapering off. Showers will also taper off after 06z.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
With two systems bringing rainfall to the North Country this week
there are a few concerns on area rivers/streams/lakes which continue
to run high with continued higher elevation snowmelt, albeit a bit
slower lately due to seasonal temperature. Basin average QPF through
Friday from the 2 storms will be in the 0.75-1.25" range across the
region with latest ensemble and local model forecasts showing the
potential for a few northern gages to reach action and minor flood
stage by Friday afternoon. Lake Champlain continues to creep ever so
slowly closer to flood stage (100 feet) every day, and expect minor
flooding to occur by this weekend, while rivers of greatest concern
to reach minor flood stage are the Ausable, Barton, Winooski, Mad,
and Missisquoi at this time.