Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 011806
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
106 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to
provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end
of the week, and into the first half of the weekend. Shower will
become more terrain focused heading into this afternoon, while
transitioning to snow over the higher elevations. Terrain
focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday as
well, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 106 PM EST Thursday...No major changes from the previous
Previous discussion from 948 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar
loop showing scattered light rain showers across the north
country at this time. Visible satellite loop showing some sunny
breaks across portions of western and south central Vermont at
this time. Expecting these sunny breaks will be brief, with
skies becoming mostly cloudy by early this afternoon. Have
dropped the mention of drizzle in the forecast and will just
mention a chance of showers for the remainder of today.
Temperatures in a few locations have already exceeded previously
forecasted highs for today, so have made some adjustments to
max temperature forecast for today.
Previous discussion from 638 AM EST Thursday...Well advertised
deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to
influence the North Country`s weather through the next 24 hours
as an occluded front pushes through the region. Widespread
frontal rains and gusty southeasterly winds earlier this morning
have shifted east of the area with some lingering scattered
showers currently across eastern Vermont. As we head into the
late morning to early afternoon hours, precipitation will
increase again in areal coverage this afternoon but becoming
more terrain focused across the Adirondacks and northern Greens.
Winds will shift to the west/southwest, and be fairly gusty up
to 25 mph in spots, but not as strong as last night. Temps aloft
begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well,
with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the
surface, temps go just about no where from current readings
across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher
across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day
generally ranging through the 40s.
For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with
possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around
midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of
the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist
across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing
hold temps in the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...By Friday into Saturday the large-
scale upper low/cyclonic gyre will slowly translate east across
southern Quebec and into the maritimes by late in the period.
Background synoptic flow will transition from west/southwesterly
to northwesterly over time and with ample low to mid level
moisture scattered to numerous orographically-enhanced rain and
snow shower activity looks likely. Highest coverage should occur
on Friday with passage of the primary thermal trough with
coverage slowly waning on Saturday. With abundant cloud cover
narrower than normal diurnal temperature swings are expected
with highs in the 40s on Friday cooling to the 30s on Saturday.
Lows Friday night ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...Any lingering scattered rain/snow
shower activity then comes to an end Saturday evening as surface
high pressure builds into the region. This will set the stage
for fair and dry conditions on Sunday with seasonably cool highs
in the 30s.
By Monday into Tuesday of next week sensible conditions shouldn`t be
all that bad. A dampening mid-level trough will pass through the
region on Monday with just an outside chance of a few rain or snow
showers and some clouds, otherwise dry weather should prevail with
at least some partial sunshine expected. Temperatures again within a
few degrees of seasonal early December norms.
Looking further out into later next week medium range solutions
continue to show a general re-amplification of the flow across the
lower 48 as a pronounced early-season arctic surge pushes southward
into the Rockies and northern high plains. This will eventually set
the stage for cyclogenesis across the central plains which will
track northeastward over time. Rather significant differences remain
however on where this will occur with the operational GFS remaining
on the more progressive side of the guidance. For now have generally
offered a gradual increase in pops/clouds from Wednesday onward as
threat of rain/snow shower activity returns with initial warm
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly mostly cloudy skies expected through
the period as the region remains under cyclonic flow from a
closed upper low over Quebec. Expecting VFR with areas of MVFR
ceiling with scattered rain and snow showers expected through
the period. Snow showers will be mainly over the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West-
southwest surface winds will gust from 15-25 knots through the
Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 18Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR
at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers.
18Z Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible.