Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280207 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1007 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1002 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAJORITY OF SHOWERS HAVE NOW EXITED REGION BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/REMNANTS PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATER TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS THE DECAYING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH AND EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F STILL LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON TIME OF FROPA. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS... BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MINS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME FOG DEVELOPS AT KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD EXIST. AFTER 18Z...KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VERMONT WHICH COULD AFFECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE OPEN WATER AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS/MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM MARINE...VERASAMY/MUCCILLI

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