Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260005 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue across the region throughout the entire week with a daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall may trend heavy, especially later in the week as a more humid airmass moves into the area. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal early summer norms through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...Isolated thunderstorms embedded within scattered showers continues to affect the region this evening. Vigorous shortwave, easily seen on water vapor imagery, continues to progress eastward into the St Lawrence Valley and will continue to produce showers and possible rumble of thunder over the North Country before weakening and exiting east after 06Z-09Z. More active weather still on tap for Monday as yet another strong shortwave drops into the central Great Lakes area. Low level surface trough boundary connecting today`s shortwave (then across the Canadian Maritimes) to the Great Lakes feature will serve as focus for low level convergence and additional showers/isolated thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon. Best coverage to occur during peak heating hours of noon to 6 pm or so before covering slowly wanes into the evening and especially overnight hours. Low to mid level lapse rates are poorer than today and with cooler boundary layer temperatures per 925-850 mb progs updraft strength in convective cores will not be as robust. Thus no strong to severe storms are expected. Highs tomorrow mainly from the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows Monday night from 45 to 55.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday. Lots of clouds will keep temperatures mild on Tuesday, highs around five to ten degrees below normal. Temperatures aloft are even cooler which results in a bit of instability, so have mentioned showers as well as thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Cold air aloft means low wet bulb zero heights so won`t be surprised to see some small hail in any deeper convection. Have chance for showers mentioned early Tuesday evening across our Northeastern zones but chances will lessen overnight with upper level and surface ridging building into the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...The extended portion of the forecast looks wet and near normal for temperatures. It will not be cloudy and rainy continuously, but weather pattern is active and there will be several rounds of precipitation, tough to find a dry day in the next week. Upper level flow is progressive and fast with west to east flow. Shortwaves passing through upper level flow will enhance chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still tough to time these shortwaves, and have continued with previous forecaster thinking of a model blend from day to day. GFS and ECMWF continue to show a large upper level trough developing to our west on Saturday, deep southerly flow develops and brings some very moist air to the region. Temperatures will start out slightly below seasonal normals then trend back towards seasonal normals towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday...Gradually diminishing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening will leave mostly VFR conditions for the first half of the night. Expect vigorous shortwave to exit east of Vermont between 06Z-09Z early Monday morning. This will bring an end to showers/storms. BUFKIT model data showing 20kts jet just off the deck, which should keep the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development at KBTV, KPBG, KRUT. Have included tempo for MVFR/IFR conditions at KMPV and MVFR conditions at KMSS and KSLK. Expect more showers at KMSS overnight to possibly bring a brief period of MVFR conditions. At KSLK and KMPV, after 07Z winds may abate at the surface allowing for brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. After sunrise Monday morning, winds will pick up out of the west to northwest at 6-12kts. Lake breeze at KPBG expected to prevail through most of the day. More showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon on Monday. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/KGM SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM

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