Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311147 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 747 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10". THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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