Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230848 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 448 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SPOT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...A VERY COMPLICATED ULVL PATTERN CONUS ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH BUILDING RIDGE FROM CANADA...WHILE CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION SLOWLY LIFTS TWD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WITH RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY....WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A VERY SUBTLE S/W IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN VT BTWN 15-21Z TODAY...WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THINKING ENOUGH BL LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WL CONT TO MENTION SCHC POPS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM 1V4 TO VSF TODAY. HAVE NOTED SFC BASED CAPE BTWN 400-800 J/KG...SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...AFT THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS...AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN DAILY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO THE DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS FROM DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES...AND CLR SKIES WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPS WL FALL QUICKLY BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS...THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 40S DACKS/NEK TO L/M 50S CPV/SLV. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...EXPECTING A MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT TO DEVELOP BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AT THIS ELEVATION TONIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 11-13C ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MIXING...THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE BTWN 925 AND 800MB ON SLK SOUNDING...SO ANTICIPATED SOME SHALLOW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADDITIONAL FOG WL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH DRIER BL CONDITIONS EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPS WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY M/U 40S TO M/U 50S. ON MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY WITH SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PLACES UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14 AND 16C AND WITH GOOD MIXING...ADDING +15C SUPPORTS MID 80S SLV/CPV...WITH U70S TO L80S MTNS ZNS BTWN 1200 AND 1800 FEET. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +16C ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS IN THE EAST. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF AS IT AMPLIFIES RIDGE WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS IT OUT. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF IS CORRECT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF INDICATES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW...BUT BELIEVE THE COOLING AND LOWERING HEIGHTS INDICATED BY ECMWF TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPS COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z. AFTER 13Z...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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