Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141114 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 714 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A GENERALLY RAIN-FREE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST VERMONT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIFT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 714 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH REALLY NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRETTY QUIET DAY EXPECTED AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO REGION. I WON`T CALL IT A COLD FRONT SINCE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VERMONT SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 60S FOR DEWPOINTS MAKING IT YET ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. STILL THINK THERE`S A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...BUT FORCING ALOFT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT SO FEEL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE BTV CWA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES BUT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST. EARLY ONSET OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH THE BEST FORCING ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY SO FEEL OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS RATHER LOW. SPC CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL SO WILL JUST MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER...BUT LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR SHOWERS. FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 321 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JULY...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING SLOWLY AS WELL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY. CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SURGE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/PA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. CARRIED SOME 20% POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH POPS 30-35% AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR FOG AT SLK/MPV...MAINLY 09-12Z. VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH SKC- SCT050. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC080-100. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS 06-12Z THURSDAY AND AGAIN 06-12Z FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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