Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291142 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 742 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND...ITS LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY THAN SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. BACKING FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE EVOLVE INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAVING DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO CREATE CONVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOOKING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS

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