517
FXUS61 KBTV 261156
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today. A
frontal system will move east from the Great Lakes today bringing
increasing high clouds to the region today. This frontal system
will move across the north country tonight, bringing rain showers
to the region tonight and early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 756 AM EDT Monday...Forecast in good shape, so no changes
have been made. Have allowed the frost advisory/freeze warning to
expire.

previous discussion from 358 AM EDT Monday...Satellite loop
showing high thin cirrus clouds moving southeast into the region
from Canada at this time. Expecting increasing cloud cover across
the north country today. Areas of frost and patchy dense fog will
burn off by mid morning. Expecting mostly sunny skies today, with
highs in the 60s. Will likely allow the frost advisories/freeze
warning to expire at 8 AM EDT today.

Tonight, Clouds will be on the increase across the region, which
will result in much milder temperatures across the region
tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s.
Expecting rain showers to develop across northern New York
tonight. These showers will move into Vermont, mainly after
midnight tonight. Models show a mid level dry slot will move into
the region late tonight, so expecting most of the shower activity
to end by daybreak on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 AM EDT Monday...The current suite of medium range
guidance leaves a bit to be desired for Tuesday based on timing.
All models show a cold front with decent moisture passing through
the region and a dry slot developing over the North Country
however there is about 12 hours difference in the timing between
the GFS and the NAM/GEM/EC with the GFS as the more progressive
system. Given the GFS as a slight outlier I trended towards a
blend of the NAM/EC with about 50% previous forecast. With
moderate southwesterly winds expect the lee sides of the mountains
to be shadowed especially in Champlain valley. Given the timing
differences I offered chance to slight chance pops for Tuesday
morning trending clear towards the afternoon with the lone
exception of the Northeast Kingdom where showers may hold on into
the evening hours.

Then as the dry slot moves in over the North Country the parent
upper level low gets sheared off and is broken up with the front
sagging offshore into the Atlantic. The closed circulation of the
upper level low then pivots down from central Ontario into the
Ohio Valley region by mid week. With that low still off to the
west and little moisture around expect the mid week from Tues
night through Thursday morning to be relatively dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Monday...An upper level parent low over the Ohio
Valley will track towards the North Country by the end of the week
and bring surface frontal system with it. Based on current
guidance there is quite a bit of spread in the location of that
surface low however both the GFS and EC are trending towards a
wetter forecast by Thursday afternoon/evening. At the moment it`s
more of a wait and see pattern based on how the evolution of the
upper level low over the Ohio Valley begins to interact with the
surface low that ends up developing. Expect temps to moderate back
towards slightly above normal through the week with upper 60s to
low 70s during the daytime and lows overnight in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected, except for
some areas of patchy dense valley fog in the sheltered valleys of
eastern and northeast Vermont, as well as the sheltered valleys of
the Adirondacks til 13Z Monday. Some areas of mvfr in showers
after 06Z through 12Z Tuesday.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...

12z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered
showers.

00z Wed - 00z Sat: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff