Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 180443
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1143 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building eastward across the North Country will
bring cold temperatures and dry weather overnight, with just
passing mid to upper level clouds. As the high pressure system
shifts to our east, a warm front will approach with winds
shifting into the south and southwest on Saturday. Temperatures
will moderate considerably, with valley high temperatures in the
upper 30s to lower 40s for both Saturday and Sunday. Also, a
weak upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds, with
a slight chance for light rain or snow showers, mainly Saturday
night into Sunday. Temperatures generally above seasonal levels
and relatively dry weather conditions are expected during the
work week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1143 PM EST Friday...No updates needed at this time as
going forecast in good shape. Where clear skies existed
temperatures have fallen quickly...but mid and high level clouds
moving down from Canada will limit temperatures from continuing
to fall sharply. Current forecast has this covered well.

Previous Discussion...
A tranquil evening and overnight period expected for the North
Country. Visible satellite imagery and sfc observations this
afternoon indicate that stratus clouds have dissipated areawide,
with just scattered thin high clouds in prevailing nwly upper
tropospheric flow. Low-level subsidence will increase as sfc
ridge axis across wrn PA/NY, Lake Ontario, and sern Ontario
gradually builds ewd into nrn NY late this afternoon, and across
VT tonight. Should see high pressure shift east of VT toward
daybreak on Saturday. Winds will continue W-NW around 10kts thru
sunset, and then become light SE-S after midnight as ridge axis
shifts to the east of the region. We should have excellent
radiative cooling for a time this evening through about 6Z,
aided by deep snow pack in many areas. 12Z NAM model soundings
suggest some increasing mid to upr level clouds from west to
east after midnight...and along with developing light south
winds, will probably see temps rise a bit during the pre- dawn
hrs from the Champlain Valley and points westward. A longer
period of clear skies and a decoupled PBL east of the Greens
suggest trending toward colder GFS-MOS for ern portion of VT.
Overall, looking at overnight lows in the low-mid teens, but
single digits expected across the normally colder spots in the
nrn Adirondacks and across ern/nern VT.

On Saturday, we`ll see relatively strong 850-700mb WAA develop as
low- level flow becomes swly, and surface winds in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys increase to 10-20 mph. Valley
highs generally expected in the upr 30s to lower 40s, including
around 43F at BTV. It appears a weak nrn stream shortwave trough
will bring a chance for a few sprinkles/mtn snow showers during
Saturday night. Highest PoPs are across the nrn mtns, with PoPs
generally 30-50 percent with just a few hundreths of an inch of
liquid equivalent forecast. Not anticipating any wx related travel
concerns. Not nearly as cold with lows Saturday night generally
expected in the low-mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies, except
upper 20s above 1000-1500ft elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 239 PM EST Friday...Latter half of the weekend turns
briefly unsettled as a weak clipper system and shortwave energy
passing north across southern Ontario/Quebec will renew chances
for some light shower activity, though with weak forcing and an
overall lack of deep moisture expect the highest chances to be
across the higher terrain and scattered at best. Temperatures
remain rather mild with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows
in the 20s, which will produce a mix of rain/snow in any
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 239 PM EST Friday...Next week begins with surface high
pressure settling in over central Quebec along with an upper
ridge building in from the Great Lakes. Northerly flow around
the high will bring temps back down to more seasonal levels with
highs mainly in the low/mid 30s, and the combination of clear
skies and deep snowpack leading to good radiational cooling
Monday night with lows in the single digits to teens. Upper
ridge and surface high center over the region on Tuesday with
temps warming back above normal as south/southwesterly flow
increases ahead of our next system which looks to bring another
quick round of rain and snow showers Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Fast westerly flow ensues for Thursday with some weak
terrain driven showers possible, before the pattern becomes
highly amplified Friday ahead of a potential big system for next
weekend. If the GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out we could be looking
at very warm temperatures and an abundance of rain which could
lead to rapid snowmelt and potential flooding problems. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions during the period with just
passing mid-upr level clouds. NW winds 5-10kts will diminish to
light and variable overnight. Winds will shift light SE toward
daybreak, and then S-SW during the daylight hours on Saturday,
approaching 10kts by 18Z. KRUT/KSLK could see some wind shear
conditions at 2000ft from the southwest at 35-40 knots while
KMSS will see winds become gusty at 15-25 knots after 18Z.

Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday... Will see periods of HIR
TRRN OBSCD 18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday. Any precipitation
will be light, mainly isold/sct light rain or snow showers
during Saturday night into early Sunday. Significant
precipitation is not expected during the outlook period.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos/MV



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