Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 150922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east of the region today which allows for
southerly winds to develop. This combined with some sunshine
will allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to
middle 40s. Dry weather is expected today but an upper level
trough of low pressure will gradually move into the region late
tonight and especially on Thursday. Some rain and snow is
expected late tonight before changing over to rain on Thursday.
Colder air moves back in Thursday night and the rain will change
back to snow...but only minor accumulations are possible over
the higher terrain. Dry weather returns for Friday before
another trough of low pressure moves in for the weekend and
brings more rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Satellite trends continue to show
the erosion of clouds across the area early this morning...mainly
over the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York and northeast
Vermont. Unfortunately its still going to take awhile to get the
remainder of the area cleared out and it looks like later this
morning it should as southerly flow develops along with
sufficient mixing. Highs today should reach the upper 30s to
middle 40s with no precipitation expected.

Upper trough moving across the Upper Midwest this morning will
eventually move into the region late tonight and especially on
Thursday. Feel precipitation will not get into the area until
after midnight tonight...but clouds and southerly flow will keep
temperatures up in the larger valleys to support precipitation
in the form of rain with snow in the mountains. Eventually
warmer air moves in on Thursday at all levels to change most of
the area over to rain showers as highs reach into the upper 30s
to middle 40s. Downslope wind component to the flow pattern
suggests Champlain Valley will see the least amount of
precipitation tonight into Thursday...generally under a tenth of
an inch...and a tenth to a quarter inch over the remainder of
the area. In terms of snow the mountains will see a dusting to 2
inches tonight into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...The short term will feature
developing northwesterly low-level upslope flow of 25 to 30
knots as the main forcing for lift transitions from the
thermodynamics with the upper trof to orographic. Cold air
advection will commence as 925mb temps around 0C fall to -12C by
Fri morn so any rain showers will change to snow showers as
freezing levels lower from around 3000 ft to the surface area
wide by around 06z. Upslope forcing will peak out 06-09z with
Froude numbers just below 1 suggesting precip/snowfall mainly at
and just west of the summits with little in the valleys. Snow
showers will gradually dry up by mid morning with moisture
decreasing and rising heights aloft. Not expecting a whole lot
of QPF Thursday night into Friday, mainly 0.10 or less to as
much as 0.40 at some of the summits. Could be a inch or less of
snow on the higher terrain mainly on the western slopes but
increasing as you go up in elevation 4 or 5 inches at the
summits above 3000 ft. Low temps by Friday morning will be in
the 20s. Highs on Friday mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s as
skies clear out. Clouds will be on the increase again Friday
night as a ridge of high pressure moves in but warm advection
starts aloft. Lows will be in the mid teens to lower 20s. In
addition, winds will become increasing brisk as they shift from
the south to west northwest Thursday night post cold frontal
passage at 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...The long term feature of
interest will be the development of a closed low in
southeastern Canada over the weekend with our area under its
influence with lots of clouds, rain and snow showers and cooling
temperatures.

Another more vigorous system will approach Saturday as a rather
strong low pressure system moving up through the Great Lakes
then north and west of region Saturday night into Sunday. It
still looks like Sat will be the wettest of the week with warm
advection front and warm air advection followed by a sharp
cold/occluded front Sat night. Timing has slowed a bit from
yesterday`s forecast as precip looks to reach BTV midday
Saturday. Precip type could still start as a mix or change from
snow to rain Sat followed by mainly rain showers by Sat eve.
Saturday could be pretty windy with some gusty winds possible
both ahead and behind the cold front with cold advection on
Sunday. Any rain showers will be changing to snow showers behind
the cold front Saturday night with Lake Ontario and upslope
snow showers continuing Sunday. Monday into Tuesday now look
mainly dry as the trof lifts out quickly with warm advection on
the back side with high pressure over the Southeast US. Models
in OK agreement through the weekend but timing differences creep
into the forecast early next week for lower confidence.
Temperatures will be on the cool side of average with highs
mainly in the lower 30s to lower 40s with lows in 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through
about 14z before clouds become scattered for the remainder of
the period. Will see some thicker mid level clouds moving in
after 00z but still looking at VFR ceilings. No precipitation is
expected through the period. Winds will be light...but become
more south and southeast after 15z and will increasing in speeds
with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range after 00z.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Evenson



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