000
FXUS61 KBTV 211952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER