Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 181702
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1202 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS


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