000
FXUS61 KBTV 132345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ATOP THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
EARLY FOSTERING CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A RETURN TO DRIER AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS ATOP AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLIPPER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DID OPT TO MASSAGE CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A TAD PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTW LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAWN AS RH FROM CLIPPER LOW PUSHING EAST FROM
ONTARIO PUSHES EAST. WINDS SLOWLY ABATE THIS EVENING...THEN TREND
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST AFTER SAY 3 AM. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRAILS THE
DEPARTING LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES STILL YIELDING SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM THE GREEN MTNS EWD AT 19Z...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH DRIER LOW- LEVEL AIR MOVING IN. NW
WINDS REMAIN 10-20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...CAUSING SOME
BLOWING SNOW. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO ABATE TOWARD EVENING AS
P-GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP SNOW
PACK...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS...LOOKING AT MIN
TEMPS NEAR ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 0 TO -10F FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES LOCALLY -10F
TO -15F AROUND KSLK AND FAR NERN VT. CARRIED 20-30 POPS FOR
FLURRIES THRU LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAST NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 994MB SFC LOW
TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO BY 00Z
SAT. INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY. GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH BY
AFTN...HIGHEST WITH CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CONSIDERABLE 850-700MB WAA WILL BRING RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LIMITED. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY (MAINLY AFTN) SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS). TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S...EXCEPT UPR 30S IN SWRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND UPR
20S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH TO SW WINDS. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT WITH QPF GENERALLY ONLY 0.1-0.2".
DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS...BUT SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH THE UPR
30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR FALL DURING THE AFTN
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CAA AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NW. MAY SEE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MTNS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 1-3" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NRN GREENS AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES. AFTER THE MILD TEMPS EARLY
SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN N-NW WINDS SUNDAY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG. HIGHS TEMPS SUNDAY GENERALLY UPR TEENS
ACROSS NRN NY AND LOW/MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY WITH NW FLOW KEEPING SLGT/LOW CHC
FOR SHSN OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. INFLUX OF COLD TEMPS RETURNS TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE TEENS TO
M20S AND MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY NGT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL DEFLECT A COASTAL LOW EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE ATLANTIC BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...WARMING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE
30S. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING MIN TEMPS MORE MILD IN THE MID TEENS TO M20S.
PRECIP LOOKS TO START AS SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NGT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT AS WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES...VALLEYS WILL SEE SNOW MIX TO RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO L40S. EXPECT COLD AIR TO RETURN THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MSS AND
SLK LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.

AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LIMITED PRIMARILY TO MPV EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALREADY SEEING NORTHWEST GUSTS DROP OFF AT MSS AND SLK...AND
ANTICIPATE GRADUAL SLACKENING OF WINDS/GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW
AS WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. STILL..EXPECT WINDS AT OR BELOW 5 KTS
WITH RATHER VARIABLE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS
THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE
IN MID- LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND INTO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY FOR THE VT TAF SITES.

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLE
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND ONSET/INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW.
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ INCREASING TO
35-50 KTS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY/. NOT QUITE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME TURBULENCE ABOVE 2KFT.
THINK MOST SITES FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BUT ESPECIALLY SO AT BTV AND
MSS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH VFR/MVFR VISIBILITY LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT
AT MSS AND SLK. I THINK IT WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW
THOUGH AND HAVE SHOWN VCSH FOR MSS AND SLK AFTER 17-19Z. I`VE ALSO
MENTIONED VCSH IN AT MPV...BUT OPTED FOR A DRIER TAF FOR BTV PBG
AND RUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS/SHADOWING POTENTIAL IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS FRIDAY PM. SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...20-25 KTS AT TIMES. ISOLD -SHSN...MAINLY FOR KSLK/KMPV.

SUNDAY NGT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO