Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 150538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1238 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for
a continuation of dry weather. Clear skies and light winds
tonight will bring the North Country another night of below zero
temperatures. A warming trend will begin on Monday with highs
in the teens to around 20 and then in the 20s on Tuesday. The
threat of light snow will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as
a low pressure system moves into the region.


As of 1214 AM EST Monday...Quiet but cold weather in store
overnight as a surface arctic high centered over southeastern
Canada shifts northeastward. Under the surface high, winds are
light to calm and skies are clear, allowing for effective
radiational cooling in the overnight hours. A fairly cold polar
airmass is overhead, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -20
degrees C throughout the forecast area. Deep snowpack over the
northern portion of the forecast area will also aid in rapid
cooling in the overnight hours. Have made minor adjustments to
the temperature forecast to account for the accelerated cooling
in the early overnight hours. Expect widespread overnight
temperatures below zero, with temperatures dipping to the -20s
in areas with the deepest snowpack (northern New York and the
Northeast Kingdom of Vermont).


As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Flow aloft in the short term will
generally be from the southwest as an upper level trough
approaches the region. Clouds will be on the increase along with
the chances for some light snow...especially Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Not expecting a lot of precipitation and when all
is said and done its looking like 1 to 3 inches of snow in the
Monday night through Tuesday night time period.


As of 253 PM EST Sunday...12z guidance offered no big changes
to the forecast. There are model to model differences, though
but nothing to suggest any significant weather maker through
Saturday. Stuck with the model blend output as it seemed to
offer a good compromise between all the smaller variations
between models, while still capturing the larger scale trends.
The general scenario still looks to go this way...

Wednesday: upper trough will swing through, however the associated
surface low will remain well of the coast, so best chances of any
precipitation will be east of the region. Surface high pressure
moves in so generally dry for the western half of the region.

Thursday/Friday: shortwave will push across sometime during the
period (Euro says Thursday, GFS says Friday), but in either case
it`s within a relatively dry northwest flow setup, so only small
chance for snow showers -- especially higher terrain

Saturday/Sunday: flow aloft turns westerly, allowing a milder
airmass of Pacific origin to make it`s way across the country. At
lower levels, a strong high develops off the southeast US coast,
resulting in a south/southwest flow to develop in our region. This
will advect in warmer air at low levels.  ECMWF is warmer, showing
850mb temperatures by Sunday of +4 to +7C (suggesting highs nearing
50), while the GFS has -2 to +2C (suggesting highs near 40). At this
point, the blend with it`s mid 40s look good, though I have a sneaky
suspicion future guidance will trend toward the warmer solution.
Could be a few rain showers around, especially Sunday.

Just a quick peek further into the future. Looks like a relatively
strong low pressure will affect the region early next week bringing
mild temperatures and rain. We`ll have some snowmelt and perhaps
some hydro concerns, especially if we have ice jams still in place
from this weekend.


Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and calm to light winds
will prevail through the TAF period with surface high pressure
overhead. Expect scattered high level clouds to move in between
15Z and 00Z in advance of the next system, with the clouds
thickening and lowering to 100-150 AGL between 00Z and 06Z.


Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.




SHORT TERM...Evenson
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