Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 282031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S AND
50S OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER SOAKING RAINS OF THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH WINDS FALLING TO CALM AND SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY NOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
PWATS WILL BE HIGH AS A FEED OFF THE GULF STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES
THOUGH...PRETTY WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME CAPE DOES SHOW UP
ON THE SREF AND NAM. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA...FEEL STRONGER STORMS MAY COINCIDE AND REMAIN NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED
BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL
NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE
GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MPV AND RUT THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MPV/SLK AND MAYBE RUTLAND... ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM TODAY. SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SATURATED ENOUGH
THAT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL


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