000
FXUS61 KBTV 070933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. GRADUALLY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING AREAS OF WINTRY MIX MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO BUILD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN N-NW FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COULD KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
FLURRIES/SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN...ESP IN THE ADKS.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ON THE NW FLOW...WITH 925MB
TEMPS NEARING -10C. AT THE SFC...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE U20S-
M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS TO L20S IN THE HIGH TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN
LITTLE TO NO WIND OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND COLDER. 925MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -10C TO -12C...RESULTING
IN OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS OF LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGH TRRN.

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF
UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S TO L30S.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE NORTHEAST...TOWARDS THE NJ COAST. ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOWING COLDER TEMPS/AIRMASS AND LESS
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX ON MONDAY. ONLY AREAS TO SEE
TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE SRN VT. CPV AND SLV WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC RIDE IN ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW...RESULTING IN RASN MIXING TO ALL RA FOR MOST OF THE
VALLEYS. TOWARDS EVENING...TEMPS WILL BEGIN COOLING AND PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. WITH COLDER MODEL SOLNS...EXPECT
GENERALLY 2-5 INCHES PSBL BY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EST SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY TUESDAY.
EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BE WINDING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT.
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
IN DECEMBER WILL BE THE RULE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO END ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AS OF 0630Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 15Z SATURDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AT
06Z SATURDAY WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
PENNSYLVANIA TO WISCONSIN BY 06Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF