Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 232338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet, late summer weather is expected over the next 36 hours as
high pressure provides fair and dry conditions to the region. The
next chance of showers will occur Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning as a cold front and associated moisture cross the region.
Behind this system a return to pleasantly mild and dry weather is
expected for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...A persistence forecast will be offered
for tonight into Wednesday as deep-layer ridging crests atop the
region with broad-scale subsidence and generally clear/sunny
skies. Still could see some patchy late night/early morning fog
here and there, but southwesterly return flow atop the nocturnal
boundary layer appears strong enough to preclude widespread
coverage and have limited occurrence mainly to the deeper river
valleys of eastern VT. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s to around
60, climbing to seasonably warm levels from 83 to 89 on Wednesday,
though with only moderate humidity levels. Winds light tonight,
trending southerly 6 to 12 mph once again by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 332 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night will start dry with
increasing moisture and clouds in southerly flow ahead of mid
level shortwave approaching from the Great Lake Region. POPs
increase towards daybreak Thursday with PWATs reaching 1.5-2
inches Thursday through early Friday. Expect rain showers Thursday
morning with a chance for thunderstorms as some instability
develops in the afternoon. Best low level instability continues to
be over the saint lawrence valley during the day.

First mid level wave will exit east Thursday afternoon but a
digging trough will approach Thursday night producing a band of
showers with embedded storms for at least the first half of the
night. Showers continue into Friday as cold front associated with
aforementioned trough moves across the North Country. Winds will
shift from south to west/northwest filtering drier air in the wake
of the front. QPF will generally be between 0.25 and 0.75 through
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 PM EDT Tuesday...Drier air continues to filter in as
surface high pressure builds over southeastern Canada through
Saturday. This ridge will shift east on Sunday, bringing a return
to southerly flow and increasing moisture as another mid level
trough approaches from south of James Bay. Expect Saturday and
Sunday to be dry, but precip from the trough will spread across
the North Country Sunday night. With the ridge slow to weaken and
shift east, the frontal boundary associated with this trough will
slow over southern New England, providing a chance for precip
across southeastern portions of the forecast area through Monday
evening. High pressure will return for Tuesday.

Max and Min temperatures will fluctuate a bit throughout the long
term, generally remaining within 5 degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR through the forecast period. Only
exception will be some brief MVFR and/or IFR at KMPV and possibly KSLK
in the 07-12Z time frame Wednesday due to br/fg. Stronger flow in
the 10-20 kt range immediately off the deck should preclude
widespread br/fg formation, with confidence in occurrence only
moderate - and mainly at KMPV terminal. Winds generally light to
moderate south/southwesterly (6-12 knots) - occasionally gusty
into the 15-20 knot range at KSLK/KMSS through 23Z, then light
and variable overnight before a rinse and repeat after 12Z
Wednesday to south/southwesterly.

NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of
disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of
amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has
been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically
transmitted, we will lift that restriction.

Outlook 00Z Thursday through Sunday...

00Z Thu - 18Z Thu...VFR under high pressure. Only exception will
be patchy LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z Wednesday night -
though stronger flow aloft again keeps confidence only low to
moderate at this time.

15Z Thu - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and
thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers continuing into Thursday night. Generally drying out
Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds.

00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1051 PM EDT Monday...The AWOS (automated weather observing
system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT)
remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a
new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. The
FAA has also told us that they have no estimate at this time as to
when the KRUT AWOS will be returned to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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