015
FXUS61 KBTV 250553
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The significant heat ends tonight as a cold front pushes through the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this evening,
and a few stronger storms are possible. Drier and seasonable weather
will prevail for a couple days before rain chances increase at the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...Thunderstorm activity has come to
an end, though some lighter residual showers continue over
northern NY. All said and done, QPF totals yesterday were quite
impressive especially over northern NY, where 0.5 to 1.0+ inch
of rain were reported. Further east, a swath of central Vermont
picked up a few tenths of an inch of rain in the earlier
thunderstorms that rolled through. After another day of record
setting heat yesterday, lows this morning will only reach into
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Previous Discussion...The heat has been continuing today but
thankfully dew points have been lower than yesterday. This is
causing heat indices to be more in the 95-110 range instead of up to
120 like yesterday. However, these differences are relatively
insignificant based on the overall impacts of the heat and humidity,
especially since it is the second day of it and the impacts are
cumulative. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to form
across the region ahead of a cold front and they should continue to
increase in coverage as the day goes on, though there will still be
a few limiting factors. There will be a significant amount of dry
air aloft, little synoptic forcing, little surface convergence and
cooling mostly restricted to the lower part of the atmosphere.
Temperatures at 500 mb do not significantly change between 12 PM
today and 12 PM tomorrow so there is not much cooling aloft to
increase mid level lapse rates. Despite these inhibiting factors,
there will be adequate CAPE present and just enough forcing to fire
off a few storms. An isolated severe storm is possible, though 0-6
KM shear is below 30 KTs for much of the day. Shear increases this
evening but the CAPE begins to decrease with the loss of solar
heating.

Temperatures will be in the 60s in most places by Wednesday morning,
except in some of the valleys in Vermont where they look to be stuck
in the 70s. However, dew points will be in the 50s and 60s so the
humidity will be noticeably lower. High pressure builds in from the
north for Wednesday and should suppress most of the precipitation to
the south. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible
in the farthest south areas, but even there it should be mostly dry.
The cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region, and
highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s and 80s and dew points will
continue to fall through the 50s. By tomorrow night, temperatures
should be in the 50s for most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...Frontal zone remains parked off to our
south and west Thu/Thu nt with partly sunny skies trending more
variably cloudy over time as light warm advection begins aloft and a
surface wave passes to our south. While I can`t rule out a few stray
showers across our southernmost counties, the majority of the area
should remain dry as light northerly flow should maintain a
relatively dry boundary layer. Temperatures continue to gradually
cool with highs mainly in the 70s and corresponding overnight lows
in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...Latest trends continue to suggest a return
of active weather by later Friday into Saturday. Plenty of clouds
and continued seasonably cool on Friday (u60s/l70s) before enhanced
lift and a shortwave trough arrives from the northwest later in the
day and especially into the overnight hours on Saturday as the old
surface front lifts northeast. Of modest concern will be the
potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall associated with
mainly elevated convection. Indeed, the latest deterministic output
is in broad agreement that some sort of MCS-type system will form
across the Upper Great Lakes/southern ON during early Friday and
track east-southeast toward our area in the progressive west-
northwest flow aloft. A quick look at several ensemble blends
support solid chances of a 1+ inch rainfall event during this
period, which is quite decent for this far out in terms of
convective forecasting. As such, WPC`s marginal risk of excessive
rainfall looks spot on for this period.

Conditions then trend drier by Sunday into early next week as the
front lifts through the region with a more subsident, warmer airmass
returning to the region for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
over the next 24 hours with generally light winds. The
exceptions will be KSLK and KMPV, where some br/fg has already
developed and will result in temporarily reduced visibility and
ceilings through 10Z. After 10Z, expect fog to lift and
conditions to improve to VFR areawide. Winds will start off
light and variable, then trend northwesterly 5-10 knots after
12Z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures were achieved at climate sites
yesterday, 6-23. In addition, the all-time record at Plattsburgh
of 101 degrees was tied.

Additional record high maximum and minimum temperatures are
likely. See below for details:


Max Temp Records for 06-24
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV 97 (Break)  - 96|2003
KMPV 93 (Break)  - 89|2003 - Broken
KMSS 92 (Break)  - 91|1957
KPBG 95 (Break)  - 93|1975 - Broken
KSLK 90 (Tie)    - 90|2003

High Min Temp Records for 06-24
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV 76 (Break) - 75|1894 - On Track to Tie
KMPV 71 (Break) - 65|1985 - On Track to Break
KMSS 74 (Break) - 71|1975 - On Track to Break
KPBG 71 (Break) - 70|1975 - On Track to Break
KSLK 67 (Break) - 64|1921 - On Track to Break

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Duell/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...Team BTV