Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.