Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 161738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS
EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES
ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z
TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM
WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY
TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z
WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING.
KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING
PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR
THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY
MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON






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