Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE
LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA
WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST
WITH STEADIER PCPN ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON



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