000
FXUS61 KBTV 150835
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT...NOT
JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON THE RIVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THUS
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. THE WARM
GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING AT A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG