Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 261104
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
704 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION...WITH AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE
CLIMO FAVORED SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ONCE AGAIN...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WESTERN
SECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. BAND OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
FRONT APPROACHING...ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCING
SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS 00Z THROUGH 06Z. SUPPORT FOR THUNDER GREATEST
DURING THE EVENING OVER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY INDICATED. BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND ALSO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH DECREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE
ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.
850 MB TEMPS COOL FROM 13-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND AND JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH BEST
CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH 850
MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A
RATHER COOL...EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY END OF THE
WEEK WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS
TO RADIATE QUITE WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 45-52F FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR NEAR 40F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WEAK RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRIDAY BEING THE NICEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
DEVELOPING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
PROGRESSING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITY LEVELS
RETURNING TO MODERATE LEVELS (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S)...WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY TIME-FRAME
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION AND SLOWS OR
STALLS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DIGGING TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWESTERN US AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
EJECT ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT SLK/MPV. ALL FOG/BR LIFTS BY 13Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. A SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACT IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIMITED...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. HAVE ALSO KEPT ANY
FOG/BR OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS AT MSS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





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