Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 280712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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