Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280843 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 343 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 34U AM EST SUNDAY...MILD TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TRAVERSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CAUSE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY MID- DAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE THE MAX TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE M20S-M30S AROUND 5PM. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, THOUGH SOME BREAKS/CLEARING ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND LOW LEVEL JET EXITS EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EST SUNDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT, DRYING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES, ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S. ON MONDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NNW TO SSE, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. MODELS SHOW WEAKENING DEFORMATION AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND WASHING OUT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 30S, WHILE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT THE SUMMITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 34U AM EST SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WHICH IS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE COMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ULTIMATELY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH PUTS US IN THE WARM SECTOR. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...LOOKING LIKE SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST AREAS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE ARRIVAL OF 40-50 KT PRE-FRONTAL JET IN THE 020-050 AGL LAYER WITH ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED TURBULENCE. KBTV/KMSS/KSLK ALREADY MIXING THESE WINDS WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. MORE LIMITED MIXING AT KPBG/KMPV/KRUT WHERE LESS GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED, AND THEREFORE MORE THREAT FOR LLWS AROUND 40-45 KTS. ALSO SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AFTER 12Z THIS COLD FRONT CLEARS EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY THEN GRADUALLY ABATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS THE COLD FRONT, WITH VFR/MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME SCT -SHRASN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KSLK...TRENDING DRY ELSEWHERE IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF BREAK IN OVC. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL. && .MARINE... AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, RESULTING IN WAVES HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING LAKE CHAMPLAIN FROM THE WEST, KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG WITH CHANNELING UP THE VALLEY, PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...KGM MARINE...KGM

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