Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221448 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 948 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move west to east across the North Country today, bringing rain and snow showers to the region. Accumulations will be light. Thanksgiving day will be dry with maximum temperatures in the 30s. Next chance for showers will be Saturday into Sunday with another cold front crossing the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 943 AM EST Wednesday...Diabatic/wet-bulb cooling allowing temperatures to cool to near freezing within 850-700mb deformation/frontogenetic banding extending from the ern slopes of the Adirondacks newd across the Champlain Valley and n-central VT. Have made some adjustments to show more of a rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley (good bright banding on KCXX reflectivity imagery), and snow accumulations up to 1" or so along/east of the Green Mtns and within the nrn Adirondack region. Could see 1-2" at the higher summit level. Also lowered afternoon temps into the low-mid 30s with NW wind shift, afternoon clouds and good sfc-850mb cold advection once the deformation axis moves out after 18Z or so. May see a few slick spots on roadways above 1000ft or so, including along I-89 south and east of MPV. We`ll continue to monitor as deformation shifts into that region next 1-2 hrs. Quiet weather for tonight with a weak ridge of surface high pressure building into the area from the west with height rises aloft. BUFKIT soundings show clouds lingering through the overnight. Temperatures will be pretty dependent on cloud cover, but should be in the teens to twenties. Chilly and quiet wx conditions for Thanksgiving with highs in the low-mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...Upper low passing well north of the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont. Minor snow accumulations are expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...No big changes from the previous forecast thinking for the extended period with the main highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend, and another big warmup mid-week. High pressure over the eastern seaboard Friday night shifts east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing well north of the border over James Bay. Dry warm front moves through the North Country Friday night with mild temps in the 30s overnight warming into low/mid 40s Saturday before a cold front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent upper trough swings through. High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens/20s for lows. Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong low pressure developing out of the lee of the Rockies moves northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday`s end. Increasing south/southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s in the deeper Valleys with no precipitation expected. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Thursday...Deeper moisture moving into the area today ahead of a cold front and as the precipitation begins the ceilings have dropped down into the MVFR and IFR categories. Visibilities will also lower into the MVFR category thru 18z with rain and snow showers moving across the region. Once the precipitation ends, VFR visibilities are expected for the remainder of the period. South to southwest winds will prevail through about 12z, then a cold front moves in and winds shift to the west and northwest for the remainder of the period. Ceilings and visibilities will both be improving to VFR after 00z. Outlook... Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles

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