Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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817 FXUS61 KBTV 300224 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North Country. Locally heavy downpours remain possible. Expect additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower humidity levels. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/... As of 1019 PM EDT Sunday...Moist plume (precipitable water values of 1.5" to 1.6") will remain over the North Country overnight in advance of sfc cold front moving ewd across sern Ontario and Lake Erie at 02Z. Instability has waned across the region, a combination of loss of daytime heating and broad region of shower and thunderstorm activity that has affected the region this afternoon and evening, and associated rain cooled low-level air now in place. We did see a few areas of damaging winds earlier today around St. Albans/Sheldon VT and also Essex County NY near Lake Champlain with separate thunderstorms. Also, radar estimated rainfall in excess of 4" indicated along the nrn slopes of the Adirondacks (central Franklin County NY) with training thunderstorm activity mid-late aftn. This occurred largely in a wilderness area, with no reports of flooding thus far. Please refer to our local storm reports for specific details on storm damage and any future flooding reports that we may acquire. 500mb ridge continues to break down overnight in response to shortwave trough crossing the ern Great Lakes. Moderately high PW values, mid-level height falls, and increasingly cyclonic flow will maintain chances for shower activity overnight, though overall coverage of rainfall should decrease. An additional 0.2-0.3" rainfall is possible through the remainder of the overnight period. Will see low temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s, with cooler temps across ern VT with some marine modified air working into ern VT on light E-SE flow (lows in the upr 50s in this region). Given today`s rainfall, will see patchy fog overnight, especially in the valleys within the nrn Adirondack region where rainfall was locally heaviest. For Memorial Day, anticipate another day of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as today so instability will be limited however through will be enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Best threat central into s-central VT. Expected max temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts to push through the North Country. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...Have kept in slight to low chance pops early Monday evening for showers, but expecting conditions to become dry later Monday night. High pressure to build into the region on Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Great Lakes will build slowly east Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures to the north country. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes, with fair and dry weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. A weakening cold front will move east from the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday and will bring a chance of showers to the north country. ECMWF and GFS models showing some difference for Saturday and Sunday, so have stuck with super-blend pops and will have a chance for showers in the forecast for next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 00z Tuesday...Convective activity is gradually diminishing in intensity across the North Country this evening...but will continue to see light to moderate shower activity along with isold tstms through 03-04z. These showers and isold tstms will bring brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Thereafter...will be concerned with areas of BR with locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. Indicated IFR fog 05-12z at SLK...and may see 4-6sm BR at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period. Generally VFR for the daylight hours on Monday. May see some additional showers/isold tstms with peak afternoon heating...with best chance of tstm development across central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday. Outlook 00z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall. && .CLIMATE... Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows: 5/29 BTV - Burlington 89 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 87 in 1978 MSS - Massena 90 in 1978 St Johnsbury 92 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos/MV CLIMATE...BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.