Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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825 FXUS61 KBTV 261710 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1210 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Local waterways continue to recede as cooler temperatures prevail and light snow shower activity decreases. Monday will be quiet weatherwise...but expect periods of rain with much above normal temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday. The potential for additional hydro concerns will need to be watched closely. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1159 AM EST Sunday...Several updates need to current forecast...which include increase pops across the northern mountains...decreasing temps by several degrees thru this morning based on obs...and adjusting winds. Current radar shows scattered snow showers across the northern Dacks into the northern CPV and parts of the central/northern mountains of VT. This activity will slowly dissipate by early afternoon...as moisture profiles decrease...but a spotty inch or two of additional snow is possible in the mountains...especially near Jay Peak. Forecast area continues under modest low level cold air advection on breezy west/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots...thinking highs will range from the mid/upper 20s mountain towns to mid 30s warmer valleys with a few upper 30s possible near VSF. The combination of cooler temperatures will limit snow melt/runoff...resulting in rivers and streams to recede. See hydro section below for additional details.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Warming trend begins on Monday and continues right into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40s on Monday and in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday. Other than some light showers in the mountains on Monday...not really expecting much in the way of precipitation. Chances will increase beginning Tuesday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an approaching upper level trough of low pressure. Temperatures will be warm enough on Tuesday for the precipitation to be in the form of rain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Extended forecast looks similar to yesterday with continued southwest flow aloft Tuesday night into Thursday morning. Moisture and dynamic support increases during this time period in advance of the approaching trough. Precipitation should become fairly widespread during this time period and temperatures will remain warm enough for the precipitation to be in the form of rain. At this time Wednesday looks to be the day with the most rainfall...but heavy rain is not expected at this time. Despite the clouds and precipitation on Wednesday...highs will be in the 50s and a few spots could hit 60. A transition will take place on Thursday as the upper trough moves east of the area and more pronounced northwest flow aloft develops on the backside of the upper trough. This will allow for colder and drier weather to move back into the region by the weekend and we may actually see below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 12Z Monday...Scattered snow showers will exist through about 18z today...but visibilities will be VFR through the entire period. Ceilings will be a mix of MVFR and VFR through about 00z before areal coverage of clouds decreasing and any ceilings will generally be VFR. Gusty west winds will continue through about 00z with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. Winds taper off after 00z and become more southwest at speeds of 10 knots or less. Outlook 06Z Monday through Thursday... 12Z Monday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions. 12Z Tuesday - 00Z Friday...Conditions will trend toward MVFR/IFR by 00z Wednesday and then remain in those categories for the remainder of the period. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 1210 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested this morning with latest hydro graphs showing water levels receding. Still expecting the Winooski River at Essex and Otter Creek at Center Rutland to crest this afternoon...along with some ice jams on the Great Chazy and Passumpsic causing minor flood related issues. No more contributions from snowmelt and rainfall are expected as colder air is helping to end the snowmelt. Our plan is to drop the flood watch with the afternoon package, as no additional or new flooding is anticipated.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Evenson HYDROLOGY...Taber

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