-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 120540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. THE
PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND CREATE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT SATURDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS
DECK MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH FILTER MOONSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT FRIDAY...IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY...THEN YOU SHOULD FIND NO FAULT IN SATURDAYS WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE
ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...BUT AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY.
ANALYSIS OF KEY PARAMETERS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION SHOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ENHANCE THE SPEED SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH THE SPEED SHEAR FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT
GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. PLUS THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL BE A
BIT LIMITED. AGAIN WE WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST NOT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND PLACEMENT OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY ACRS OUR REGION ON TUES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BACK
OFF SOME ON TUES...WITH BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA...WHILE DYNAMICS AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. THE
BETTER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 35
TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL VORT. THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. WL MENTION
SCT/CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BY TUESDAY...WITH SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE SLV.
AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION...A RIBBON OF VERY
STRONG 5H WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT...BUT PROGGED SFC INSTABILITY IS LIMITED.
LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED/WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS
POTENTIAL...GIVEN SYSTEM DYNAMICS FOR TUES. MUCH COOLER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON WEDS/THURS OF NEXT WEEK. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER ON
WEDS...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER VORT IN TROF AND SOME LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HAVE CUT POPS BACK TO SCHC/CHC ON
WEDS...AND NEAR 10% FOR THURS AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...AS SW FLW ALOFT
WL PREVENT COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT FROM ADVECTING ACRS OUR REGION. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED WHILE THE POPS ARE HIGH ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...DURATION OF RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY BE 1 TO 3 HOURS
BUT PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...DUE TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FOG AT SLK/MPV 07-11Z
THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED AT PBG WITH SE WINDS 5-8 KTS DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OWING
TO DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN HUMID AIR MASS ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS
SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SOUTH
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...EVENSON