Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300837 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 437 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the area today with sunny to partly sunny skies and seasonable early spring temperatures. Low pressure will approach and pass south of the area on Friday into Saturday with a widespread wet accumulating snow expected. The snow may mix with or change to rain in lower elevations on Friday. Dry weather returns by Sunday into Monday before additional rains and snows arrive by the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...Nice weather expected across the area today as surface high pressure bridges across the northeast. Sunny to partly sunny skies are expected for most of the day under light northerly breezes as high temperatures top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s, perhaps a few mid 40s in milder lower elevation locales. High clouds will begin to move into the southwestern portions of the forecast area toward late afternoon/early evening, and thicken/lower across the entire area tonight in advance of our next weather maker. Light snow will move into our far south and southwestern counties late with minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches possible, but the bulk of the precipitation for the area should hold off until Friday. Lows tonight mainly in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...The system referenced above will take the form of surface low pressure and upper closed energy tracking east from the Ohio Valley states tonight into Friday and into the Mid Atlantic and offshore environs by Friday night/Saturday with widespread precipitation expected. Thermal profiles continue to suggest p-type (rain/snow) will be governed heavily by boundary layer temperatures, quite typical during early spring events. Some brief mix with sleet may be possible across southern counties per mid level warm nose shown in most recent NAM output. Given this model has a more northward surface low track and is really the only output showing this have omitted any reference to sleet at this point. In terms of timing and amounts, the latest information suggests snow will arrive into southwestern counties toward Friday morning and advance northeast through the remainder of the forecast area during the day on Friday into Friday night. A possible mix with or changeover to a cold rain will be possible in lower elevations below 1000 feet during the daylight hours. Complicating the scenario will be how ground temperatures govern daytime accumulations in these lower, valley sites. Climo would suggest only a modest impact to roads in most areas through the day on Friday with greater impacts expected Friday evening/night in response to loss of insolation and slightly cooler temperatures. Put considerable work into snow ratio output, leaning on the lower side of guidance in the 8-10:1 range in lower elevations and staggering progressively upward into the 10-13:1 range in the higher terrain. QPF from Friday into Saturday morning is a blended output of NAM/GFS/Consensus model/WPC blend with a slight downward adjustment given the rather high output as suggested by the NAM. This would support amounts ranging from one third to two thirds of an inch north and two thirds to an inch south. Snowfall output suggests 30 hour totals from 2-4 inches in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valley with only minor impacts, 3 to 7 inches in much of the northern higher terrain and lower elevations of southern VT, and 6 to 12 inches across higher elevations of Essex County, NY and the southern Green Mountains of Rutland/Windsor Counties of VT. In these latter areas, Winter Storm Warnings and/or Winter Weather Advisories have been issued accordingly where difficult to locally hazardous travel is expected. Given the wet nature of the snow, some modest threat to trees/powerlines will also be possible with the highest threat occurring across southern higher terrain. Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities. Highs on Friday ranging through the 30s with lows Friday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. By Saturday the low pressure pulls away offshore with steadier snows tapering to scattered rain/snow shower activity as the day progresses. Any additional accumulations should generally be confined to higher elevations during the morning hours as high temperatures top out from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Some upslope snow showers will continue into Saturday night across our Northern Vermont zones before ending early Sunday morning. Ridge of surface high pressure will then build over our area for Sunday and Sunday night. GFS and ECMWF then spread quite a bit apart from Monday onward. GFS is much more aggressive with Southern stream and Northern stream low pressure systems phasing, and impacting our area from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF keeps us mainly dry through this period with the Northern stream low missing us to the North and Southern stream low missing us to the South. For Tuesday night and Wednesday region will once again be dry with another ridge of high pressure over us. Both ECMWF and GFS show a Great Lakes low pressure system passing west of us late in the week and bringing more rain and the snow showers to the area. Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal normals for the extended portion of the forecast but trending warmer towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions persist as surface high pressure builds into the North Country. Deck of VFR low and mid level clouds will persist through the overnight, gradually diminishing in coverage and lifting to mid and high level clouds around day break. Winds are 5-10 kts out of the North. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday... 06Z Friday through 09Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 09Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and snow. 00Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...Areas of MVFR in scattered light snow showers. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>018. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ012-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ029>031-035. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles

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