Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151828 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 228 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION... QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...NF HYDROLOGY...JMG

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