Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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730 FXUS61 KBTV 170559 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1259 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate snow will move across the North Country tonight through the first half of Wednesday in response to an approaching trough of low pressure. Once the trough passes to the east Wednesday night most of the precipitation will come to an end and the main story for the latter part of the week and weekend will be a warming trend with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1241 AM EST Wednesday...Previous forecast on track. Fairly steady snow is ongoing over southern and eastern Vermont as anticipated. Over northwestern Vermont/northern New York, first round of snow is weakening as it progresses eastward over the northern Champlain Valley. We are seeing some slight upslope enhancement on the western side of the Green Mountains as we saw with the previous wave of snow this morning amid the fairly blocked flow. As the first wave of snow tapers off over the next few hours over northwestern Vermont, expect to see a lull in precipitation over the northern Champlain Valley for the remainder of the overnight hours before snow picks up again around sunrise. Southern/eastern Vermont will see more continuous snow through this afternoon/early evening as the better moisture and lift remains over these areas. Previous forecast...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Rutland...Windsor...and Orange counties of Vermont until 100 pm on Wednesday. Still looking at 3 to 5 inches across the advisory area with localized amounts to 6 inches. Over the remainder of the area amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch range. Bottom line...very little has changed with how we feel this event will play out. Upstream upper trough is move of an open wave and its progressive...which is why we are not thinking heavy snow at this time. Tonight through midday on Wednesday is when the majority of the snow will fall. The snow will taper off quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon. With all the cloud cover tonight lows will not be able to fall too much and have upped minimum temperatures tonight by a couple of degrees. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to around 30. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Expecting a fairly quiet but not completely inactive end to the work week with shortwave energy exiting east of the region Thursday morning, followed by a series of 2 more weak northern stream shortwave troughs Thursday night and Friday. In general, the deepest moisture is limited to the higher elevations where a dusting to perhaps 2" is possible, mainly Thursday night, but additional snowfall is possible in the lee of Lake Ontario with some lake enhancement. The period will also mark the beginning of a gradual moderation in temperatures which will last into the weekend and early next week. Highs Thursday will range through the 20s, and warm to the upper 30s to mid 30s for Friday, with lows Thursday night mainly in the teens. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Overall little change from the 00Z to 12Z NWP guidance in regards to the long term pattern which continues to highlight moderating temperatures and building heights across the eastern seaboard between high pressure anchored offshore and a developing mid-level closed low over the central Plains. For Friday night through Sunday the forecast area will be on the northern fringe of a warm frontal zone with a fast zonal flow aloft. Not looking at any appreciable precipitation during the period, but can`t rule out a few rain/snow showers. Temps continue to climb from the end of the work week with 925-850mb temps in the -3C to +3C range supporting highs both days in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. Forecast becomes more active and complex heading into Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned closed upper low and associated surface frontal system shift northeast into the Great Lakes by mid-day Monday, then further northeast into central Quebec by Tuesday morning. This track puts the North Country firmly in the warm sector on Monday with thermal profiles supporting the chance for a light wintry mix as the warm frontal zone lifts northward through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. Entrenched in the warm sector by mid-day Monday, precipitation chances wane as a modest low/mid level jet of 35-50kts moves through the region, but quickly ramp up from west to east in the afternoon ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Indications are for a good slug of widespread rainfall to occur Monday afternoon and early overnight before a transition to snow late Monday night. Right now we don`t anticipate as much QPF compared to what fell at the end of last week, but nevertheless, several days of temps in the 40s combined with even a modest rainfall will bear watching for another round of hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently experiencing MVFR and IFR conditions in response to light snow. Steadiest snow remains over southern/eastern Vermont with IFR conditions expected to continue at RUT through 08Z before improving to MVFR as snow becomes lighter between 08Z and 17Z. Snow has tapered off at MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV with conditions temporarily improving over the next few hours at these sites. Another wave of snow will move in to RUT/PBG/BTV/MPV between 10Z and 14Z, once again lowering ceilings and visibilities. This round of snow will end between 22Z and 00Z, allowing widespread improvement to low VFR conditions after this time. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN, Slight chance PL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson/RSD

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