Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 050748 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON`T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KICKOFF THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MEAN 850-925MB TEMPS OF 13-19C RESPECTIVELY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 80-85F THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. AS THIS TAKES PLACE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE INTL BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE HARD TO BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM THIS ENERGY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW TO NIL THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB AS A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUMP UP A DEGREE OR 2 CELSIUS EACH DAY SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOCALLY NEAR 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT THOUGH BEGIN CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, BUT BECOME MILDER/MUGGIER SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN CONUS GRADUALLY WEAKENS DURING THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO BRING 30% OR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS BEGINNING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY MAY SET UP POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" RAINFALL WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY. MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPR 80S...AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 60S (CONTRIBUTED TO BY ANTICIPATED MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION). HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...AND BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 70S FOR FRIDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...RATHER QUIET AVIATION WX CONDITIONS...MAINLY SKC/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANTICIPATE LIFR FOG AT MPV 0630Z THROUGH 1230Z...AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR BR/FOG POSSIBLE AT SLK. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT LOCAL SE WINDS POSSIBLE AT PBG WITH LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV AFTER 0630Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT INTERVALS OF IFR FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z MONDAY. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.