Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280822 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY. BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS. STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE. PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. 12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. 12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON

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