Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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625 FXUS61 KBTV 240549 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 149 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to keep the North Country dry through Monday night. Low pressure will move up along the Eastern seaboard bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday, especially across south-central and eastern portions of Vermont. A surface cold front will bring the potential for more showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, Thursday night into Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1023 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track. Quiet weather for the near term as high pressure remains over the area. Clouds will increase from the north during the pre-dawn hrs as a cold front moves across southern Quebec tonight and into the North Country. As of 02Z, mid-level cloud deck has reached the intl border, including OVC110 at KMSS. Frontal convergence is of limited depth, and with dry air mass in place, it appears the front will come through dry, with just a period of cloudiness overnight into early Monday. Combination of northerly winds and gradually decreasing clouds on Monday will lead to cooler max temperatures in the 50s to the north and upper 50s to 60s areas south. Monday night will start with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies but have clouds increasing from the south late in the night ahead of a coastal low. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Cool and damp conditions expected...along with some breezy winds along the western slopes from Danby to Rutland to East Middlebury to Underhill. Still anticipating several waves of light rain to move from south to north across our fa with 1st round btwn 15z and 21z Tuesday and 2nd wave impacting our eastern/central cwa on btwn 09z and 15z Weds. Leading 5h vort and initial 850 to 500mb moisture quickly expands across our region on Tuesday...while developing south/southeast low level winds increase at 30 to 40 knots. The best winds associated with low level 925mb to 850mb se jet stay to our east...but still thinking a few gusts to 30 knots possible along the western slopes on Tuesday. The jet orientation will impact qpf fields with slightly higher amounts on se upslope regions and less across the eastern cpv/western slopes. General qpf will range between 0.05 and 0.25 for 1st round. Next round of precip is associated with tightly compacted closed mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and weak 1005mb low pres moving along the eastern seaboard. Latest guidance continues to show a sharp west to east precip gradient across our cwa...with minimal qpf west and up to another 0.50 or so eastern/southeast sections on Weds. Based on low level jet orientation/placement and pws near 1.0" this looks reasonable. Have mention likely to cat pops east and tapered to chc west on Weds with a sharp gradient in qpf fields. Temps will also be depend upon clouds/precip with highs tues only in the m/u 40s se section to mid/upper 50s nw areas...and near 70f SLV to upper 50s CT River Valley on Weds. Lows hold mainly in the 40s on Tuesday night with clouds/precip. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Much above normal temps expected on Thursday ahead of approaching cold front...with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated Thursday aftn/night...before cooler air arrives by next week. Mid/upper level ridge builds ahead of developing s/w energy over the great lakes on Thurs...placing our CWA in the warm sector. The slower fropa arrival allows for 925mb temps to warm between 20- 22c...with 850mb temps near 15c on breezy south winds. Have gone 3 to 5 degrees above superblend with highs mainly m/u 70s mountain valleys to lower 80s warmer valleys away from Lake Champlain. GFS continues to show an axis of instability ahead of short wave energy and cold front with CAPE values btwn 800-1200 j/kg. Still some uncertainty with timing of fropa and associated impacts. Cooler air eventually arrives late Friday into Saturday...with a sharp boundary draped somewhere across the ne conus/mid Atlantic states next weekend. This will produce a sharp divide in warm/unstable air to our south and cooler/drier air to our north...with unsettled wx located near the boundary. Plenty of uncertainty on exact placement of boundary and potential impacts at days 6 and 7...so kept mention of chc pops with temps very close to superblend values...mainly 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...A dry cold front will bring a northerly wind shift during the pre-dawn hours, along with a period of VFR ceilings through 12-14Z or so. May see a brief period of MVFR ceilings around SLK/PBG around daybreak, but overall impact from this front will be rather limited. Skies will return mostly clear later this morning and through the remainder of the TAF period with sfc high pressure across srn Quebec in control of our weather. No restrictions to vsby are expected through the period. Winds generally N-NE at 5-10kts. Will see localized sely winds at KRUT after 01Z Tuesday associated with local orographic effects. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos

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