Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 012333 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 733 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 733 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER TONIGHT. WE SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN HERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS SHIFTING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BTV CWA AT THIS TIME. MOST IF NOT ALL OF VT IS CLOUDY NOW...AND FEELING IS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD IN THE LOW/MID 50S AND WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...FOG IN SOME PLACES...LOW STRATUS IN OTHERS. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD..50S...AND LOWER WESTWARD WITH MORE BREAKS IN SKY COVER...40S. A FEW SPITS OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW CENTER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 411 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FINALLY A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROF DEVELOPS. THIS WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...ALONG WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH A SLOW TREND TWD COOLER TEMPS. LATEST 12Z GFS AND 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...POTENT 5H VORT WL ROUND DEVELOPING TROF AXIS AND CREATE A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS OUR REGION...WHICH WL HELP ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR FA. HAVE NOTED GFS ENSEMBLE PW VALUES BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75" ON SATURDAY AFTN...WHICH IS 1 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE 5H PVA FROM VORT AND STRONG RIBBON OF UVV`S WL RESULT IN A 6 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN ACRS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. THINKING ARRIVAL TIME WL BE AROUND 12Z SLV...AND 18Z DACKS/WESTERN CPV...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY...THINKING QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1.0 LIKELY. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL. ALSO...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SAT AFTN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ALONG WITH 85H JET OF 60 TO 65 KNTS. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS...WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING TO THE SFC. THINKING GUSTS BTWN 35 AND 40 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE THE SLV/DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON SAT. THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS EVENT BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED BY OUR LOCAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY SAT WITH DEVELOPING SHARP WEST TO EAST THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...BUT THINKING NEAR 70F EAST TO U50S/LOWER 60S DACKS/SLV. SUNDAY-MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION CONTS NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. THIS FLW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND RIBBONS OF MID LVL MOISTURE...WL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN. IN ADDITION...EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WL IMPACT THE DACKS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN 2-4C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS. WL MENTION HIGHEST CHC POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS WITH THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRES GRADIENT WL RANGE FROM THE U30S MTNS TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE ON TUES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SFC COLD FRNT AND POTENT 5H ENERGY...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY WITH FAST FLW ALOFT. TEMPS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP WL RANGE FROM THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. CHALLENGE IS TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. TAF SITES ARE VFR AT 2330Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT. ANTICIPATE CEILINGS REFORMING WITH MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED IFR AFTER 04Z AT SLK/MPV WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT SE AROUND 10 KTS AT KRUT. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FOG/BR POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...BANACOS/TABER

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