Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271728 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Behind this front, drier conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected from Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 128 PM EDT Thursday...Afternoon forecast remains in good shape with really no update needed. Finally beginning to see some clearing across northwest New York in the wake of a pre- frontal trough passage which brought a round of light showers to the region this morning. These showers are exiting east of the Connecticut River Valley right now, and for the remainder of the day the focus will be on the potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing as instability increases from west to east ahead of an approaching cold front. For the most part, we continue the idea that areal coverage of any convection that does fire will be limited, and not linger over any one area for too long. Where sun has broken out temps have rocketed into the mid 70s, but where more cloud cover persists temps are still stuck in the 60s. Persistence on temps will be the forecast for this afternoon as well. After 00z showers will quickly end with shortwave energy departing along with surface front. Cooler drier air will move into the area for tonight and Friday with surface high pressure ridging. Should be enough cloud remaining tonight to avoid any significant fog formation. Cold air advection behind departing cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...Heading into the weekend the weather will be quiet as a 500mb low dives south of the North Country. We`ll be locked in with light cold air advection and high pressure building into the North Country. There will be some clouds across southern Vermont but as you move north the cloud cover will be decreasing and mostly clear conditions should be expected across the International border. Temps will stay below normal with highs on Friday only in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure continues Saturday night and as the high crests overhead conditions should be favourable for some fog development in the protected river valleys. The sensible weather will be quiet and dry over the weekend and heading into the workweek. Its not until mid week until we see the next chance for showers as a coastal low pressure system tracks up towards New England. That system will merge with energy from a far northern stream system and brings a frontal system with a chance for some scattered showers across the North Country Tuesday afternoon/evening. Guidance at this point is all over the place in how the coastal low develops. Given the intensity differences I stuck with a bit of continuity with the forecast as to not window wash and just mentioned slight chance to chance showers. Temperatures will be trending back to near normal through the weekend and should be close to normal as we start the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Just some isolated showers remaining across the area this morning. Only SLK had lower ceilings overnight and all sites are now VFR. Scattered showers are expected today as cold front crosses the area. Some scattered MVFR visibilities are possible in showers. Winds will veer from southerly to westerly and pick up a bit this afternoon. Showers should be ending by about 00z across the area. Will need to monitor possibility of fog formation overnight, especially in areas that receive ample rainfall today. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Neiles

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