Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 071432 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather system is currently bringing a light snowfall to the north country and will continue through the morning commute. Accumulations will be light but will create slippery driving conditions. Additional snow showers are in the forecast for Thursday into Friday as colder air begins to moves in to the region. Significant snow accumulations are possible in parts of northern New York. The weekend is expected to be seasonably cold with scattered snow showers each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 928 AM EST Wednesday...The combination of very light snow and temps near freezing resulted in very minimal impacts across our region during the morning commute. Moving forward radar shows very light rain or snow lingering across the region...which is supported by area soundings showing abundant low level moisture. Have continued to mention chance pops through the rest of this morning...before drier air develops this afternoon and areal coverage of precip decreases further. Temps will continue to slowly warm into the 30s to near 40f warmer valleys. All covered well in current forecast. Have increased hourly temps by several degrees as warming is occurring faster than expected...especially dacks and parts of the champlain valley. Light snow continues to push eastward across our forecast area. Still think that some lingering snow showers or drizzle will be possible, but not significant. Southwest flow is already bringing temperatures above freezing across parts of the region. The rest of the day will remain cloudy and high temperatures will reach the upper 30s to around 40. Tonight our next weather system begins after midnight with some lake effect snow in Northern New York off of Lake Ontario. Have upgrade Lake Effect Snow Watch to an Advisory. Overnight temperatures will be relatively mild with mins only in the 20s, plenty of cloud cover. A strong upper level trof will push through the Great Lakes region overnight. This feature does not have as much synoptic forcing, but southwest flow will become favorable for lake effect off Lake Ontario with cold air advection. Flow will be strong enough for some snow to reach Jay Peak area in Northern Vermont, some upslope enhancement as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...Lake Effect snow event will be ongoing for Thursday and Thursday night. Aforementioned upper level trof will push across Northern New York and New England. Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin Counties in the Adirondacks as well as Jay Peak area in Northern Vermont will be main areas to have accumulating snow with this Lake Effect snow set up initially. With upper trof pushing through later Thursday the rest of our forecast area will also have some light snow shower activity except for the larger valleys. Snow showers will also become a bit more convective, models continue to show some small CAPE in the higher elevations. Going into Thursday night the flow becomes less favorable for our forecast area and lake effect band will drift South and out of our area. Most of our forecast area will have just a dusting to an inch of snow. the higher elevations of Vermont and Northern New York will have 2-4", and the highest summits from Mount Mansfield to Jay Peak will see closer to 4-6" of snow. Have upgrade Lake Effect Snow Watch to an Advisory. In the advisory area, snow totals will be 4-8" with some isolated higher amounts especially in extreme Southern Saint Lawrence county. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 455 AM EST Wednesday...The main stories during the long term portion of the forecast will be some of the coldest temperatures so far this season, with highs mainly in the 20s and 30s. Also, increasing chances for wintry precipitation as well. On Friday, the region will continue to be under cold advection with a chance of snow showers and highs in the 20s. On Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes Saturday through early Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will crest over the north country Sunday morning, and then move off the coast Sunday afternoon. This will allow a warm front to approach the region Sunday afternoon with increasing cloudiness. Light snow will develop across the Saint Lawrence valley and the Adirondacks in northern New York during Sunday afternoon. This light snow will then spread east into Vermont by late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Have raised superblend pops to likely across the Adirondacks and Saint Lawrence valley Sunday afternoon, with high chance pops (50 percent) across Vermont by late Sunday afternoon. Models showing light snow across the region Sunday night, so have raised superblend pops to likely for Sunday night. On Monday, ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences, with the GFS model having a surface low over the Gulf of Maine by 12Z Monday. The ECMWF model has several waves of low pressure over the Ohio valley at 12Z Monday. It looks like we will see some rain or snow on Monday. Thus, have raised superblend pops to high chance (50 percent) on Monday. Models continue to show some differences for Monday night and Tuesday, so have stuck with superblend pops, and will have a chance of snow showers in the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 12Z Thursday...Light snow pushing eastward across the area, only MPV and RUT still reporting light snow at the terminal. Other terminals have some BR, but conditions will improve. Snow will start to break up into more showery conditions after 14z, and temperatures will warm above freezing at all TAF locations. Will see lingering MVFR ceilings for most locations with higher terrain obscured. South winds may gust 15-20kts in the Champlain Valley after late morning thru afternoon/early evening. Will see lower ceilings overnight at Northern NY terminals with lake effect snow reaching the Western Adirondacks. Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday... Entire period - frequent MVFR ceilings. Scattered snow showers each day, resulting in localized IFR visibility and ceilings. Maybe extended period of IFR for SLK Wednesday night into Thursday night with frequent snow showers in vicinity of the nrn Adirondacks. && .MARINE... Warm frontal passage bringing a period of strong south winds to Lake Champlain this morning. Should see sustained winds around 25kt with gusts to 30kt through 16-17Z. Thereafter, should see a wind shift into the southwest this afternoon with sustained winds decreasing slightly to 15-25kt, and then down to 5-15kts after sunset. Waves in the 2 to 4 foot range are expected through early afternoon due to the strong south winds, highest toward the north end of the broad lake vcnty of Colchester Point and the south end of Grand Isle. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Thursday night for NYZ029. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Banacos

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