Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241850 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 250 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An active weather pattern is expected for the next several days across the entire North Country. A wide variety of precipitation types are also expected with snow changing to rain today through tonight...but not before some light snow accumulations occur. There may even be some sleet mixed in. The precipitation will push south of the area on Saturday...but then returns late Saturday night and continues Sunday into Monday. Once again we will be looking at a mix of rain...sleet...and snow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 940 AM EDT Friday...Some modest adjustments to current forecast to speed of timing/arrival of snows across the area. Also nudged QPF/snowfall amounts up just slightly from prior forecast, though still offer a general 0.5 to 2 inches for valleys today, 2 to 4 inches in the mountains with localized totals to perhaps 6 inches in the highest elevations. Didn`t get too carried away with some of the higher model QPF output given a distinct high bias during warm advective events. Used latest RAP model for mid level thermal profiles and slightly cooler model-blended hourly temperature trends given expected wet bulbing processes. This would offer highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s across north central/northeastern VT and upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Prior discussion... Clouds will continue to be on the increase today as a warm front approaches the region. Favorable warm air advection will take place for widespread precipitation to develop across the area...especially this afternoon into the first half of tonight. However...there will be one narrow band of snow that moves across the area this morning. Low dew points across the area this morning should help temperatures cool briefly at the onset of precipitation before warming above freezing later today into early tonight. Thus looking at snow changing to rain later today...with temperatures remaining cold enough over parts of eastern Vermont for the precipitation to remain as snow with even some sleet mixing in as warmer temperatures aloft move across the region. Most locations should see a half to two inches...with higher amounts in the mountains and over north central and northeast Vermont where two to four inches is more likely. Northwest flow aloft takes over late tonight and warm front will begin to get shunted to the south after midnight tonight and colder and drier air will begin to move out of Canada and down into the far northern portions of New York and Vermont. High temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s with lows tonight in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south. On Saturday...colder and drier air continues to push south during the day and any precipitation will be most concentrated over the central and southern sections of our area with front pushing southward. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s and thermal profile suggests a mix of precipitation types once again with rain...sleet...and snow possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 237 PM EDT Friday....Sunday and Sunday night look messy! Hate that we`re still dealing with mixed precipitation for the end of March. Sunday we will have warm air advection and some light rain as warm front lifts North across our forecast area. Temperatures will dip early during the overnight Sunday night, then continue to warm through the overnight with general warm air advection continuing. Pretty decent slug of precipitation moves across our forecast area overnight and believe that we`ll mainly have rain with some freezing rain east of the Green mountains where the cold air tends to get stuck the longest. Have leaned on the warmest guidance that I could find for Sunday night, the BTV4 and blended with ConsShort. Then I used the diurnal trend from ConsShort for temps and a GFS/NAM blend for weather grids from mixed precipitation top down. Amount of QPF that`s expected along with cold temps East of the Greens, can`t rule out possibility of winter headlines at some point for Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 237 PM EDT Friday...Rain will continue through the first part of the day on Monday as well as warm air advection which should shut down icing east of the greens by later in the morning. Monday afternoon and overnight the precipitation will become more orographically enhanced. Another upper level shortwave pushes across our area on Tuesday bringing more chances for precipitation, mainly rain. Precipitation continues into Tuesday night, mixing with some snow, before shutting down Wednesday morning. Will finally have a bit of a drying trend for Wednesday through Thursday night, but more chances for precipitation towards the end of the week. Still a very difficult p-type forecast for the beginning of the week with rain-snow line remaining very close if not right across our forecast area.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...IFR/MVFR conditions expected through 12Z as widespread snow and/or mixed precipitation associated with a stalling warm front traverse the area. Steadier precipitation will tend to settle south after 05Z as front sags southward with most terminals trending precipitation-free after 12Z Saturday. Winds variable 5 to 15 knots south to southeasterly (easterly at KMSS), trending northerly after midnight. After 12Z Saturday cigs should begin to transition to VFR from north to south as Canadian high pressure begins to nose southward into the area. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday... 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR /precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation and/or rain return to the region. 12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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