Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 162028
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the
region. A warming trend will also take place beginning today and
continuing through midweek with above normal temperatures
expected. However...attention will turn to the late Tuesday into
early Wednesday time period when mixed precipitation makes its
way up into the region. The precipitation will generally begin
as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain in northern
New York with colder air holding in longer over Vermont for a
bit more snow and sleet before going to rain on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 AM EST Monday...Visible satellite loop showing mostly
clear skies across the region at this time. A ridge of high
pressure will crest over the region today, with sunny skies
expected. Previous forecast has this well covered, so no changes
have been made to the forecast.
Previous discussion from 551 AM EST Monday...Going forecast in
good shape. Only tweak was to temperatures and sky given the
sharp difference across the area with clouds and warmer
temperatures west and relatively clear skies with colder
temperatures east. Otherwise...with high pressure over the area
quiet weather is expected today and tonight. A warm trend will
also take place with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
And it will not be getting as cold tonight as the past few night
with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected during
this period...especially late in the day Tuesday through the
morning hours on Wednesday. It will be yet again another mixed
precipitation event. Highs on Tuesday will actually get into the
30s to around 40 in advance of the precipitation. But with dry
air in place wet bulbing will take place and the thermal profile
will change significantly with low level cooling and warming
aloft. At this time its looking like light snow at the onset and
then as warmer air aloft moves into northern New York Tuesday
night they will have the best chance of seeing sleet and some
freezing rain that could result in some light ice accumulations.
Secondary low wants to form along the coast Tuesday night and
this will keep colder air in over the Champlain Valley and
points east. Thus the thermal profile Tuesday night would
support the idea of a bit more snow and sleet with some rain
getting into the Champlain Valley. Freezing rain threat looks
low in Vermont...but with more snow and sleet...better snow
accumulations could result. From Tuesday night through Wednesday
areas from the Green Mountains eastward could see snow and
sleet amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range with around an inch in
the Champlain Valley before changing to rain. Either way another
messy situation is expected before temperatures warm enough for
rain everywhere on Wednesday. Precipitation should also be
exiting the region as temperatures warm well into the 30s
Wednesday afternoon. Only other concern will be strong winds
moving in late Tuesday...especially in the Champlain Valley that
could cause some shadowing effects and limit precipitation.
No headlines at this time...but situation for Tuesday night into
Wednesday will be closely monitored given the mixed
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 324 PM EST Monday...The second half of the week will see a
return of high pressure with fair weather, light winds and mild
temperatures. Late wednesday night into Thursday will see an
upper level through off to the east of the CWA which will bring
lingering snowshowers. Showers will mainly be over higher
elevations during the early morning hours and then just over NEK
as the trough continues to push east. Beyond this point the
high takes hold and keeps any chance of precipitation well to
the south, with Saturday afternoon providing the only chance of
very isolated snowshowers across the Central Adirondacks. 925mb
Temps range from -1C to -3C on the GFS through Sun while the
ECMWF is a little warmer a +2C to -2C through the same period.
Either way this should yeld mild temps in the upper 30`s to
40`s and possibly warmer for the end of the week through the
weekend while overnight lows range in the lower 20`s to 30`s
with some of the normally colder locations possibly dropping
into the teens on a few evenings.
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.AVIATION /21Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the period with high
pressure. Winds will be south to southwesterly and occasionally
gusty to 20 knots at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS this afternoon. After
00Z winds abate to light and variable with VFR conditions
continuing through the end of the period.
18Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow,
mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location.
00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
rain/snow shower activity.
00Z Friday onward...VFR.
-- Changed Discussion --VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for VTZ010-012-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ087.
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