Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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312 FXUS61 KBTV 162028 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 328 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the region. A warming trend will also take place beginning today and continuing through midweek with above normal temperatures expected. However...attention will turn to the late Tuesday into early Wednesday time period when mixed precipitation makes its way up into the region. The precipitation will generally begin as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain in northern New York with colder air holding in longer over Vermont for a bit more snow and sleet before going to rain on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 940 AM EST Monday...Visible satellite loop showing mostly clear skies across the region at this time. A ridge of high pressure will crest over the region today, with sunny skies expected. Previous forecast has this well covered, so no changes have been made to the forecast. Previous discussion from 551 AM EST Monday...Going forecast in good shape. Only tweak was to temperatures and sky given the sharp difference across the area with clouds and warmer temperatures west and relatively clear skies with colder temperatures east. Otherwise...with high pressure over the area quiet weather is expected today and tonight. A warm trend will also take place with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s. And it will not be getting as cold tonight as the past few night with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected during this period...especially late in the day Tuesday through the morning hours on Wednesday. It will be yet again another mixed precipitation event. Highs on Tuesday will actually get into the 30s to around 40 in advance of the precipitation. But with dry air in place wet bulbing will take place and the thermal profile will change significantly with low level cooling and warming aloft. At this time its looking like light snow at the onset and then as warmer air aloft moves into northern New York Tuesday night they will have the best chance of seeing sleet and some freezing rain that could result in some light ice accumulations. Secondary low wants to form along the coast Tuesday night and this will keep colder air in over the Champlain Valley and points east. Thus the thermal profile Tuesday night would support the idea of a bit more snow and sleet with some rain getting into the Champlain Valley. Freezing rain threat looks low in Vermont...but with more snow and sleet...better snow accumulations could result. From Tuesday night through Wednesday areas from the Green Mountains eastward could see snow and sleet amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range with around an inch in the Champlain Valley before changing to rain. Either way another messy situation is expected before temperatures warm enough for rain everywhere on Wednesday. Precipitation should also be exiting the region as temperatures warm well into the 30s Wednesday afternoon. Only other concern will be strong winds moving in late Tuesday...especially in the Champlain Valley that could cause some shadowing effects and limit precipitation. No headlines at this time...but situation for Tuesday night into Wednesday will be closely monitored given the mixed precipitation event. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 324 PM EST Monday...The second half of the week will see a return of high pressure with fair weather, light winds and mild temperatures. Late wednesday night into Thursday will see an upper level through off to the east of the CWA which will bring lingering snowshowers. Showers will mainly be over higher elevations during the early morning hours and then just over NEK as the trough continues to push east. Beyond this point the high takes hold and keeps any chance of precipitation well to the south, with Saturday afternoon providing the only chance of very isolated snowshowers across the Central Adirondacks. 925mb Temps range from -1C to -3C on the GFS through Sun while the ECMWF is a little warmer a +2C to -2C through the same period. Either way this should yeld mild temps in the upper 30`s to 40`s and possibly warmer for the end of the week through the weekend while overnight lows range in the lower 20`s to 30`s with some of the normally colder locations possibly dropping into the teens on a few evenings.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the period with high pressure. Winds will be south to southwesterly and occasionally gusty to 20 knots at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS this afternoon. After 00Z winds abate to light and variable with VFR conditions continuing through the end of the period. 18Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow, mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow shower activity. 00Z Friday onward...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ010-012-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...JMG/MV

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