Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030550 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 150 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 111 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT OF FOG NEEDED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING SOUTH/EAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND DURATION OF FOG THERE. FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 12C-13C WITH UNHINDERED SUNSHINE YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. WITH THURSDAY 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS, EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHERLY STREAM 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE TROUGH WEAKENING, EXPECT MOSTLY INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN TO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COME MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THAT FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN MPV THIS EVENING. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY STAY AS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVEN`T CLOSED TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR FOG BANK OVER THE BTV AREA AND NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT RUT OR PBG. THE MVFR STRATUS DECK IN RUTLAND HAS GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNAFFECTED BY FOG ARE REPORTING CLEAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PBG WHERE A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS HAS A CEILING AT 4000 FT. FOR THE FOG SITES, SLK/MSS/MPV IFR TO LIFR WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE FOG SETTING IN AT MPV BETWEEN 07-09Z. ANTICIPATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI

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