Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231205 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... More precipitation is expected today across the North Country. The bulk of the precipitation will be in the form of rain with some freezing rain this morning across the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York and areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont. Eventually all areas get above freezing today with highs in the 40s. The rain for later this morning and afternoon may be heavy at times across parts of southern and eastern Vermont and a rumble of thunder is also possible over southern Vermont. Colder air moves in tonight to change any precipitation over to snow showers...which will be most prevalent in the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 704 AM EST Tuesday...Still seeing temperatures around 30 across the northern portions of the Saint Lawrence Valley and another wave of precipitation moving into that area. This will be another round of light freezing rain and have extended the freezing rain advisory until 1000 am for the Saint Lawrence Valley. Rest of forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... Temperatures still holding in the 20s across the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York and around 30 over eastern Vermont. As next wave of precipitation moves in we should see some additional freezing rain in these areas and additional light icing is expected. Thus the winter weather advisory remains in effect for these areas. Elsewhere across the area temperatures have risen above freezing and rain is expected. Later this morning all areas will be above freezing and rain will be the only form of precipitation. The potential will also exist for periods of moderate to heavy rain across parts of southern and eastern Vermont and a rumble of thunder is also possible over southern Vermont. Eventually highs will get into the 40s across the entire area. Bulk of steadier precipitation moves east of the area tonight as upper trough moves into the region. The areal coverage of precipitation will decrease...become more confined to the higher terrain...and begins to change over to snow as colder air moves into the region. The colder air continues to move into the region on Wednesday. Strong cold air advection throughout the day will result in an early high around mid-morning and then temperatures for the remainder of the day. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the upper teens to the upper 20s. Still looking at some terrain driven snow showers and at this time the mountains could see about 1 to 3 inches of snow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 353 AM EST Tuesday...Middle to end of the work week continues to look quiet yet unseasonable cold as a cold upper trough remains over the Northeast while surface high pressure builds in from the west, centering over the North Country on Friday. With the high building in, skies will trend towards clearing by Thursday morning and continue to be mostly clear/sunny through Friday. Good radiational cooling both Wednesday and Thursday nights will support lows in the single digits above and below zero, with highs Thursday only warming into the low/mid teens. Our next warmup begins Friday as the high shifts offshore and southerly flow begins to develop ahead of our next system. Highs will still be below late January normals and will range from the teens northeast to mid/upper 20s southwest across the CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 353 AM EST Tuesday...The first half of the upcoming weekend looks very nice as the aforementioned surface high pressure anchored off the eastern seaboard continues to provide dry conditions and increasing southerly flow with a gradual warming of temps to above seasonal normals Friday night through Saturday. You`ll want to get out and enjoy the warm temps Saturday in the upper 30s to mid 40s, because even though it`ll be warmer on Sunday, active weather returns with rain in the forecast. For the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe not much has changed from yesterdays NWP guidance with increasing confidence that we`ll see a widespread moderate rain event Sunday with the potential for several inches of snow on the backside late Sunday night into Monday. The deterministic GFS continues to be the outlier in regards to the synoptic pattern, offering a much less amplified upper flow and a more progressive surface low track, while its ensemble members are closer to the ECMWF and CMC solutions which show a highly amplified and warmer system with deep south/southwesterly flow tapping into GOMEX moisture. With better consistency I`ve trended towards the ECMWF/CMC solutions depicting a warm and wet Sunday and Sunday evening before the attending cold front swing into the region towards midnight Monday changing rain to snow from west to east by sunrise, and snow showers continuing through much of Monday. A quick blend of QPF from midnight Sunday to Monday afternoon shows a widespread +1" combination of rain/snow, though mostly rain which could provide some renewed hydro concerns. Behind the front, Monday night and Tuesday look seasonable with lows in the single digits and teens and 20s for highs with the chance for snow showers in north/northwest flow. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Overall looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings with IFR/LIFT ceilings at KMSS and KMPV. These conditions will last through the morning hours with widespread precipitation spreading back into the region. This will result in VFR visibilities lowering into the MVFR category. Still looking at some light freezing rain at KMSS and KMPV until 14z then change over to rain which will be the prevailing precipitation type over the rest of the area. Visibilities will improve back into the VFR category after 00z and remain there for the remainder of the period. There will still be plenty of clouds around with VFR/MVFR ceilings lasting through the remainder of the period.There may be some low level wind shear at KMSS this morning with low level northeast winds and southwest winds at or above 2000 feet...but this should come to an end by mid morning. The same will exist at KRUT with east-southeast surface winds and southwest flow aloft. Otherwise looking at south to southwest winds everywhere else. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 353 AM EST Tuesday...Widespread rainfall is expected across the area today...especially later this morning and afternoon. Current data suggests 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 700 pm Tuesday will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch across the area with highest totals over southern Vermont. Given the substantial loss of snowpack across lower elevations during last week`s storm, and the fact that the warm-up will be of lesser magnitude we are not expecting significant ice movement or water rises on area rivers at this time. This is in close agreement with NERFC guidance and our latest river forecasts. Nevertheless conditions will continue to be monitored closely over the next 36 hours. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ026-027-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson HYDROLOGY...JMG/Evenson

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