Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261951 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 251 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Local waterways continue to recede as cooler temperatures prevail and light snow shower activity decreases. Monday will be quiet weatherwise...but expect periods of rain with much above normal temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday. The potential for additional hydro concerns will need to be watched closely. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1223 PM EST Sunday...Minor update to capture latest trends...otherwise forecast in great shape this afternoon. Expecting highs in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s with a few lingering flurries possible in the mountains. Several updates need to current forecast...which include increase pops across the northern mountains...decreasing temps by several degrees thru this morning based on obs...and adjusting winds. Current radar shows scattered snow showers across the northern Dacks into the northern CPV and parts of the central/northern mountains of VT. This activity will slowly dissipate by early afternoon...as moisture profiles decrease...but a spotty inch or two of additional snow is possible in the mountains...especially near Jay Peak. Forecast area continues under modest low level cold air advection on breezy west/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots...thinking highs will range from the mid/upper 20s mountain towns to mid 30s warmer valleys with a few upper 30s possible near VSF. The combination of cooler temperatures will limit snow melt/runoff...resulting in rivers and streams to recede. See hydro section below for additional details. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Warming trend begins on Monday and continues right into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40s on Monday and in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday. Other than some light showers in the mountains on Monday...not really expecting much in the way of precipitation. Chances will increase beginning Tuesday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an approaching upper level trough of low pressure. Temperatures will be warm enough on Tuesday for the precipitation to be in the form of rain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 251 PM EST Sunday...An active period of weather returns for the Wednesday/Wednesday evening time frame as vigorous low pressure tracks from the northern Great Lakes to the mouth of the St Lawrence River. General good model agreement exists on the mean cyclone track, which will put the forecast area solidly in the warm sector in an unseasonably mild airmass (50s to locally near 60). I wouldn`t be surprised if daily high temperature records will be threatened once again in a few spots on Wednesday afternoon under breezy south/southwest flow. Will maintain higher chances for showers (60-80 pct) during this period as well, tapering values off toward Thursday morning as accompanying cold front and colder/drier cp airmass sweeps east. Could see some additional minor hydro issues due to rainfall/snowmelt, but at this point I`m not as concerned to the degree of our current event. By later in the week a return to seasonably colder weather is expected. Lingering flurries/snow showers on Thursday should end by Thursday night with mainly dry weather and weak high pressure building atop our area from Friday onward into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SCT/BKN cigs mainly from 040-050 AGL range through 00Z before skies trend mainly clear this evening. Some return of SCT/BKN VFR cigs from 050-090 AGL return later tonight into Monday. Winds most problematic element, gusting into the 18-25 kt range from the west/northwest through 22Z before abating and trending light south/southwesterly by 00Z. By 06Z south/southwesterly flow increases and trends gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range after 12Z Monday. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18Z Monday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions. 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR depending on time period as low pressure crosses the region. 06Z Thursday onward...Scattered snow showers/flurries and occasional MVFR/IFR conditions early trend mainly VFR after 18Z Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1210 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested this morning with latest hydro graphs showing water levels receding. Still expecting the Winooski River at Essex and Otter Creek at Center Rutland to crest this afternoon...along with some ice jams on the Great Chazy and Passumpsic causing minor flood related issues. No more contributions from snowmelt and rainfall are expected as colder air is helping to end the snowmelt. Our plan is to drop the flood watch with the afternoon package, as no additional or new flooding is anticipated. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...Taber

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