Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281729 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1229 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST OF THE GREENS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID- LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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