Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020215 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES. ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME. THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.. LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT EASTWARD. ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...RJS

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