Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251736 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service ALBANY NY 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Plenty of sunshine with some clouds across the higher terrain as temperatures climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. A shower or two may pop up along the spine of the Green Mountains this afternoon. The above normal temperatures will continue right through the middle of the week as high pressure remains over the area. Expect dry weather on Tuesday but as a trough of low pressure moves into the region late Wednesday through Thursday morning the chances for showers will increase...especially near the Canadian Border.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 129 PM EDT Monday...Diurnally driven cumulus field per the GOES16 data was well underway across the higher terrain, especially across the Greens. While current radar scans are null of activity, recent trends in the satellite imagery suggest more of the robust cumulus where dewpoints were well into the 60s and near 70F could be enough for a shower or two to develop. In fact, HRRR/NAM3km and BTV4 mesoscale model showing on consecutive runs the potential for some isolated convection over the Green Mountains this afternoon. Plenty of instability and the mountains of course are a natural source of lift. Cap overall should hold...but cannot rule out a couple can break through the cap. Flow aloft is weak so any showers would not be able to move off the terrain...thus having little impact overall. Have included a slight chance of showers for parts of the Green Mountains. Any showers quickly come to an end tonight and high dew points will keep overnight lows above normal and should see fog developing with clear skies and light winds. On Tuesday once again little change in 925/850 millibar temperatures and will continue to go with more record breaking temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Will be interesting if here at BTV we can actually hit three straight days of 90 degrees...something that never occurred this summer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Its much of the same story for Tuesday evening as the ridge will still be in place. High heat during the day Tuesday and high dewpoints during the afternoon will lead to fog overnight. General feeling is that there will be some dense fog in the sheltered valley locations with some patches of fog elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the 60s again, which is more indicative of our normals highs this time of year. The airmass will be slightly changing into Wednesday as the ridge finally breaks down however not much changes in the thermal profile until late. 925mb temps still support temps in the upper 80s with 90`s in the Valleys. I wasn`t as bullish on that as we should start to build in some cloud cover that would insulate the North Country from peak heating. Even so the forecast of mid to upper 80s would still set or tie records at BTV/MPV/MSS/1V4. With records possible I`ll hold on to the previous discussion highlighting heat hazards below: While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 F), they are not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the fourth consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday night is when we should finally start to see some reprieve from the heat. A mid level short wave will finally move into the North Country but the moisture isn`t very strong. I`ve trended the forecast back another 3-6 hours as guidance seemed overdone on the precip threat during the late afternoon Wednesday. A weak cold front will swing through during the overnight hours Wednesday and bring scattered showers. Given the overnight timing I dont feel there will be any thunder threat so I`ve opted to continue with no mention of thunder. Behind the front we get into cold air advection and see temps return to near normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Late in the week heading into the weekend guidance is starting to bring a shortwave trough into the region so I`ve mentioned slight chance for pops but I dont have high confidence in timing of the isolated to scattered showers. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions through about 06z before fog returns at several sites through the overnight period. Little in the way of cloud cover through the period, diurnally driven FEW-SCT cumulus clouds, but brief periods of LIFR to VLIFR ceilings associated with the fog...especially at KSLK and KMPV. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday Sep 24 to Wednesday Sep 27 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 9/27 83 / 1920 82 / 2003 80 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) RECORDS: Day Burlington Massena Montpelier St Johnsbury 9/23 86 9/24 91 88 85 89* (Tied) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/BGM NEAR TERM...Evenson/BGM SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Evenson/BGM CLIMATE...BTV

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