Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011258 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED 850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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