Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262321 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 621 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Local water levels continue to recede as cooler temperatures prevail and runoff decreases. Monday will be quiet weatherwise...but expect periods of rain with much above normal temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday. The potential for additional hydro concerns will need to be watched closely. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 621 PM EST Sunday...Evening and overnight forecast is in good shape at this time, with only a couple tweaks needed to hourly temperatures and sky cover to match current observational trends. Otherwise a dry night is expected with clear skies this evening across northern areas giving way to some increasing mid/high clouds towards midnight and into the early morning hours of Monday. Previous Discussion...Relatively quiet period of weather expected with weak high pres cresting over our forecast area this evening...followed by developing warm air advection late tonight into Monday. Expecting early evening low temps with clearing skies and light winds...before south winds develop after midnight and temps start warming toward sunrise...especially along and west of the Green Mountains. Also...GFS/NAM show increasing 850 to 500mb moisture profiles across our northern zones...so an isolated to scattered snow shower cannot be ruled out...especially toward 06z tonight. Temps will range from the mid teens northeast Kingdom/central vt Valleys to mid/upper 20s cpv/slv tonight with developing south winds 5 to 15 knots...especially slv/cpv. On Monday we continue under moderate low level warm air advection as progged 925mb temps climb to 0c by 18z...with brisk 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots. Expecting a dry forecast with highs ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s depending upon location. A spot rain or snow shower associated with westerly 850mb flow and some mid level moisture possible...especially mountain zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 308 PM EST Sunday...Another active period of weather anticipated especially tue afternoon into weds with more rain and much above normal temperatures. Large scale pattern shows building heights/thickness values as se conus ridge develops ahead of digging trof across the central Plains/Great Lakes. Expecting a period of rain mixed with snow/sleet on Tuesday afternoon/evening associated with leading edge of very warm air mass and ribbon of enhanced mid level moisture. QPF mainly between 0.10 and 0.25 with warm front feature...with maybe an inch or two of snow...mountains/northeast kingdom. Progged 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles surge above 0c by 06z Weds...associated with 850mb southwest jet of 45 to 50 knots. This low level jet...combined with 500mb winds of 50 to 60 knots from the southwest...helps to advect deep layer moisture back into our region by 12z Weds...as pws approach 1.0". This moisture will interact with a sharp convergence line/front and potent energy aloft to produce more showers with embedded rumbles of thunder by 12z Weds...especially SLV. Will increase pops across our western cwa to likely/cat with some localized heavy downpours possible...and taper to chance toward the CPV. Temps will be challenging during this time period...especially with strong low level warm air advection on breezy south/southwest Tuesday Night. Progged 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles near 0c Tuesday support highs well into the 40s to near 50f valleys with mid/upper 30s mountains. Expect a wide range in temps Tuesday Night...with sheltered valleys east of the greens falling into the upper 20s/lower 30s...and some cooler air filtering down the SLV. Meanwhile...as low level warm air advection develops...expect western dacks and parts of the CPV to fall early before increasing well into the 40s to near 50F by 12z Weds. Have tried to show sharp gradient in grids. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 251 PM EST Sunday...An active period of weather returns for the Wednesday/Wednesday evening time frame as vigorous low pressure tracks from the northern Great Lakes to the mouth of the St Lawrence River. General good model agreement exists on the mean cyclone track, which will put the forecast area solidly in the warm sector in an unseasonably mild airmass (50s to locally near 60). I wouldn`t be surprised if daily high temperature records will be threatened once again in a few spots on Wednesday afternoon under breezy south/southwest flow. Will maintain higher chances for showers (60-80 pct) during this period as well, tapering values off toward Thursday morning as accompanying cold front and colder/drier cp airmass sweeps east. Could see some additional minor hydro issues due to rainfall/snowmelt, but at this point I`m not as concerned to the degree of our current event. By later in the week a return to seasonably colder weather is expected. Lingering flurries/snow showers on Thursday should end by Thursday night with mainly dry weather and weak high pressure building atop our area from Friday onward into next weekend. && .AVIATION /23Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SCT/BKN cigs mainly from 040-050 AGL range through 00Z before skies trend mainly clear this evening. Some return of SCT/BKN VFR cigs from 050-090 AGL return later tonight into Monday. Winds most problematic element, gusting into the 18-25 kt range from the west/northwest through 22Z before abating and trending light south/southwesterly by 00Z. By 06Z south/southwesterly flow increases and trends gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range after 12Z Monday. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18Z Monday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions. 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR depending on time period as low pressure crosses the region. 06Z Thursday onward...Scattered snow showers/flurries and occasional MVFR/IFR conditions early trend mainly VFR after 18Z Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested with latest hydro graphs showing water levels receding...therefore the flood watch has been cancelled. See local flood statements for latest crest information on our web page. We continue to watch Tuesday afternoon through Weds time period closely for the potential for additional river rises associated with several rounds of showers and embedded downpours. This expected rainfall along with much above normal temperatures will result in additional snow melt and the potential for sharp river rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...Taber

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