Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210212 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1012 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1012 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SLV AND ERN ADKS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND HALF INCH...AND ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...AS INDICATED BY RADAR. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE GRADUAL TRACK OF PRECIP WELL...WITH SOME ISO TO SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER HUDSON/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHILE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP REMAINS EAST OF THE CPV TIL AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW PROGRESSION IS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT STALLED NATURE/MOVEMENT OF CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER LAKE HURON. TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO +13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS. BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS... SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SUNDAY...DITTO. MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG. TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20% POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS. 00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK). && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH

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