Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 290619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE PERIODICALLY BRINGING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RANGE
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...A RATHER BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...WHILE GRADUALLY DEVOLVING INTO A LEFTOVER INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. IN THE PROCESS...THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...IT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND HELP TO
BRIEFLY REINVIGORATE IT...WHILE ALSO SUPPLYING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE AND LARGER-SCALE LIFT.
ALL OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
AGAIN FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE IN PLAY. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL AGAIN TEND TO DIMINISH WITH INCREASING NORTHWARD
EXTENT...THE SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP
PULL THESE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN TODAY...WITH LOWER-END
CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR AS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTH COUNTRY AGAIN APPEARS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN
TOTALLY DRY.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
THE 35-40 RANGE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CONVERSELY...THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES AND CONTINUED COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...
WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
JUST AS IN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE COOLEST OVERALL READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE PREVAILING
FLOW OFF THE COOL LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THIS STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE LAYER IN PLACE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS
FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE WHICH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
STAYING IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PIVOT
AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
THEN LOOK TO WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT WITH NO THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT HAS LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR. EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST FROM MICHIGAN WILL BRING
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 18Z ONWARDS AND PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KBUF-KSYR LINE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KIAG/KROC. OTHERWISE, EVEN WITH THE
SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN NEAR THE PA BORDER.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING INTO A LEFTOVER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES WILL
RESULT IN A GENERAL MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND AS A RESULT HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT ON LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODEST
NORTHEASTERLIES AND CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/WOOD


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