Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 050317
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1117 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER FOR THE BULK
OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SMALL AREA JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
THEN POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING IS SHOWING A DISSIPATING SHOWER JUST
OFF DUNKIRK OVER LAKE ERIE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SOME STRATUS IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 11PM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AS A BUBBLE OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN MANY AREAS WITH FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN.

ON SATURDAY THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. STRONG HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS FORECASTING SBCAPE OF GREATER
THAN 2000 J/KG. FOR THE MOST PART THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS AND LACK
OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL PREVENT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH ONE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN CHAUTAUQUA
AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. LOCALLY STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM MID LEVELS
AND BREACH THE CAP...ALLOWING SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE INCLUDED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM FINDLAY LAKE NORTHEAST INTO THE
BOSTON HILLS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
LAKE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE
LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS LATER ON IN THE WEEK...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE.

A WEAK SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY.  LAKE BREEZE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND LATE IN THE DAY EAST OF EITHER
LAKE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY.  BY MONDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.  THE USUAL LATE SEASON VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDINESS FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REGARDING A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. A BETTER COLD FRONT LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR ROUGHLY THE
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY POSTFRONTAL
AND DRY.  THEN UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH QUITE
A BIT OF VARIABILITY TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES
OVER THE EASTERN US BY FRIDAY.

FROM A PROBABILISTIC STANDPOINT...WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH LOWER THREATS
TUE...THU...AND FRI.  CONFIDENCE IN GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES
IS HIGH HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS AT 11PM. IFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KJHW AS A
RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM EARLIER TSRA. THIS SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY. ELSEWHERE SOME LIGHT BR MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBY FROM 06Z-13Z.

IN ADDITION TO FOG...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE LIGHT MORNING BR WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z.
THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJHW TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG WEEKEND. THE FLAT LAKES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.