Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 050945
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE COMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING ABOVE
AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CONTINUING TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE TEENS.
READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING AS
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BUDGE LITTLE FROM
THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT SHOULD TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. NONETHELESS
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL REINFORCE THE BITTERNESS OF
THE COLD TEMPERATURES...PUSHING WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TODAY.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT HAVE LARGELY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 5KFT MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY WHILE ELSEWHERE MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
COUPLED WITH THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKES STAYING ABOVE ZERO
WHILE AREAS INLAND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT EVENING
BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS CHILLS WILL CERTAINLY WILL RUN
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...THEY SHOULD STAY JUST A HAIR ABOVE THE
-15 THRESHOLD THANKS TO THE SLACKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD SUNSHINE THROUGH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS IS A BIT
FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WHICH HOLDS BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF BUT WITHIN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS A COATING TO AN INCH OF
FLUFFY DENDRITES COULD ACCUMULATE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 30 DEGREES SATURDAY.

ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE A WEAK CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT THE PREVIOUS
SURFACE TROUGH. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX
SHOULD BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LIKELY
POPS FEATURED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BETTER ALIGNED
WITH THE GFS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN POPS. THE SNOW AND CLOUD
COVER AND MISSING DIRECT PATHWAY TO ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPS SATURDAY MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY AND LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE CLIPPER
DEPARTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
SUPPORTING HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WARMING ALOFT AS A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL 500MB FLOW TAKES SHAPE INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN FINALLY INTO AT
LEAST THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 00Z GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTING A CHANCE AT 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
BOTH DAYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW LONG
THE WARMING TREND WILL LAST. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
WITHIN THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER BAJA.
THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IMMEDIATELY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST DUE
TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHSN. THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING CLEARING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO
EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES ON
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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