Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260020
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING WITH
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
HAVE DROPPED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALSO TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
SURFACE WINDS...BUT WITH ITS EXIT AND NIGHTFALL WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH LAKES A WEAK LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP
FROM -6C TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW
850 HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE
THIS...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND -14C AND ANY
GOOD SEEDING LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW THAT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN SIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL...BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WHEN
WINDS ARE STILL AMPLE TO AID IN UPSLOPING. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...HOWEVER
IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 00Z...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LIFTING CIGS
AND ENDING SHOWERS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART. LIKEWISE...JHW WILL LOWER
AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...EXPECT LINGERING CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







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