Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




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