149
FXUS61 KBUF 031758
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and trough moving through from the north will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region at times
through this afternoon. An area of high pressure will then
bring dry and comfortable weather tonight through Independence
Day. Heat and humidity will then build over the weekend, with
more unsettled weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A couple batches of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible today, first during the early afternoon, then again
later in the afternoon. These will occur as a cold front tracks
southeast across the region which will then be followed by a
trough. With decent CAPE values of 1,000+ J/kg and some marginal
shear values of around 30 kts, SPC has most of the BUF forecast
area in a `Marginal Risk` for severe thunderstorms. Timing for
the frontal passage will be through early afternoon for most of
the BUF forecast area. Strong to severe thunderstorms currently
across portions of the Finger Lakes and additional storms are
developing across SE Ontario, tracking toward the St. Lawrence
River. High temperatures today will be in the low 70s over the
higher terrain to near 80 for the lower elevations.


A few scattered showers/storms may linger into the early evening
hours, especially east of Lake Ontario. High pressure and a
surface ridge will start to build into the region tonight,
centering over WNY by Friday afternoon. This will result in
mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the low to upper 50s.
The sfc high over the region will also result in a beautiful 4th
of July holiday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity
levels, light winds and temperatures in the low 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered across the upper Great Lakes Friday
night, will support surface high pressure to settle across New York
State. As the ridge advances eastward towards the Northeast through
Sunday, the corresponding surface high will advect east towards the
New England coastline. Meanwhile, the next mid-level trough will
follow up behind the ridge, supporting a surface to develop along an
existing cold front across the central Great Lakes Sunday before
traveling east towards the eastern Great Lakes. Initially, expect
calm and quiescent conditions to persist through Sunday with the
surface high and mid-level ridge overhead.

Two items of note: 1.) While most of the area will remain on the dry
side, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop across the western
Southern Tier (Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties) due to the
influences of the Lake Erie lake breeze boundary. 2.) After a cool
and drier start Friday night, warm air and moisture advection ahead
of the incoming system will begin to build Saturday and linger
through Sunday, which will reintroduce the warm muggy conditions
back in across Western and North Central New York Saturday and
Sunday. By Sunday, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in heat index
values to flirt near Heat Advisory criteria, especially in the
warmer valleys of the Finger Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the initial trough sliding from the central Great Lakes Sunday
night into the eastern Great Lakes Monday, general broad troughing
will lie across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday. With the
initial trough, a surface cold front will gradually sag south across
the region late Sunday night through Monday introducing showers and
thunderstorms to pass from northwest to southeast.

In the wake of the front, and with the general troughing pattern in
place overhead, cooler and drier air will advect into the region and
result in temperatures to trend towards normal for early to mid July.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes near the later
half of the week as the broad trough axis crosses the area and
supports a wavy warm front across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR today. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible through the afternoon. Showers/storms will
accompany the passing cold front and later a passing trough.
Brief reductions to both VSBY and CIGs can`t be ruled out if a
heavier downpour passes over a terminal.

Tonight through Friday, mainly VFR for all terminals with high
pressure building into the region. The exception being for JHW where
some fog across the Southern Tier may cause lower VSBYs to MVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR restrictions possible.

Tuesday...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds today will cause some choppy conditions across the
lakes. Scattered showers/storms may have some brief gusty winds over
the waters through the afternoon.

An area of high pressure will build into the region tonight and
Friday, resulting in weak winds over the lakes and little to no
waves. Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW