Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 052039 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF BOTH LAKES. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE COAST. IT WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE FREQUENT SNOWS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH AWAY TO OUR EAST. FRESH ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 3 PM SHOULD ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO. MEANWHILE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY LOW CAP OF 7-8K FT AND AN UNIMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS FROM ACCUMULATING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE SPOT. THE DETAILS OFF EACH LAKE... OFF LK ERIE...A 240-250 FLOW LATE THIS EVENING WILL BACK SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 230 DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE BULK OF ANY LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE BUF METRO AREA AND ITS SOUTHERN SUBURBS. ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WHEN THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. OFF LK ONTARIO...A 270-280 FLOW WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO 230-240 DEGREES. THE TIMING OF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN CONTINUITY BY ABOUT 3 HOURS...AND SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 2-3 INCHES FOR THE TUG HILL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH...AS A SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY. AS MENTIONED...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END AS FLURRIES EAST OF LK ERIE WHILE ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER...DESPITE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 5 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM TODAY...REACHING TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN EASTWARD TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND NORTH TO THE VICINITY OF THE FADING COLD FRONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE TUG HILL NORTH WILL BE VERY LIGHT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 20S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ON SUNDAY... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL STALLED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AND LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF WISCONSIN WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR POURING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THIS COASTAL LOW AND THE MIDWESTERN LOW... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH FROM THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PIEDMONT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION THAT SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FROM ENCROACHING THE WESTERN FRONTIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL FORCING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWS AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN WARM/MELTING LAYER ALOFT IS LOST AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LACKING A BOUNDARY LAYER JET TO TRANSPORT SAID MOISTURE...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COASTAL LOW AND INTERCEDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD BE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EASTERN PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM. IF EITHER OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISMS DOES DEVELOP... SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MAINSTREAM ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET LEVEL FLOW WILL INCLUDE 2 STD HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR BOTH A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS HIGHLY CORRELATED TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS PARTICULAR OCCURRENCE WILL MOST CERTAINLY FOLLOW SUIT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF SOME OF THE SFC FEATURES...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MID AND EXTENDED RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THAT WOULD SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. AS SUCCESSIVE COASTAL STORMS MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE. 12S GFS IS SHOWING -32C AT 850MB ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ENCOURAGE A TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE DROP WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON WEDNESDAY THEN ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHTS VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...AND EVEN MORE FRIGID FOR THE COMING WEEKEND (THE 13TH AND 14TH). && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES FOR SITES SUCH AS KBUF THROUGH 21Z...WITH CORRESPONDING CIGS AT MVFR TO VFR LEVELS. WIDE OPEN VFR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF ROCHESTER...INCLUDING THE NORTH COUNTRY. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE KBUF AND KART AFTER ABOUT 09Z. FOR SATURDAY...MORNING LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. && .MARINE... MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FRESHEN OVERNIGHT SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SCA`S WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT EAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...WCH LONG TERM...RSH/WCH AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH

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