Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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109 FXUS61 KBUF 221926 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR...AND LIGHTENING WINDS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST OR A FREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TONIGHT...FOR WHICH FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. A DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MAXIMIZE LATE MAY INSOLATION AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...ALBEIT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A RISK FOR ANY FROST FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER MAY HAVE PATCHES OF FROST. SUNDAY WILL START COOL AND CLEAR...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR WNY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. GREATEST QPF WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A GENERAL HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN MAY FALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. BASIN-WIDE ACROSS THE CWA MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO WARMTH BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...WE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. AIR TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. GREATER HUMIDITY COME WITHIN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THOUGH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BERMUDA HIGH PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GUARANTEE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD...AS A CONTINUAL FEED OF AIR OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT OUR AIRMASS WILL INHERENTLY BE MORE UNSTABLE... PARTICULARLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY LARGELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR OROGRAPHICS TO INITIATE. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE RAINFREE... SO WILL ONLY USE 30-40 CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S GIVING US A TASTE OF STICKY SUMMER HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASED ABOVE 4K FEET BECOMING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT MVFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FRESH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THAT...LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY MINIMAL WAVES ARE THEN EXPECTED DURINF THE WEEKEND AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ005>008-012-013-019>021-085. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010-011-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>044.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA

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