Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 241131 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TOPPED BY A VEIL OF CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE A COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A THIN BUT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO FADE INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. BY LATE MORNING EXPECT THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO WIN OUT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW... BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK

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