Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 191152 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few snow showers will be possible across the North Country through early afternoon, as an upper level disturbance moves away from the region. Otherwise, look for generally dry conditions and warming temperatures through most of the weekend, as low-amplitude ridging takes hold across the region. There will be a chance for light precipitation Sunday night as a warm front lifts across the region, with more widespread rainfall and seasonably mild temperatures expected Monday into Monday night as a low pressure system tracks from the Missouri valley to the Great Lakes.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The upper level disturbance that moved through the area overnight has moved off to New England early this morning. Southerly flow east of Lake Ontario is expected to veer to the west this morning, re- introducing at least a chance for a few upslope/lake-enhanced snow showers across the North Country through this afternoon. However, have backed off on pops, as latest model soundings indicate that the shallow moisture may not reach into the dendritic growth layer, suggesting than many areas may just end up with cloudy skies. Elsewhere, expect a dry with increasing sunshine as low-amplitude ridging takes hold across the region. Strengthening southwesterly return flow around high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will advect warmer air into the region, causing temperatures to climb above freezing across much of the forecast area, with the exception of the North Country, which will run a little cooler, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The sunshine will aid in mixing down stronger winds associated with a persistent low level-jet that is overhead the region, and this will lead to the development of gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph by this afternoon, which will keep wind chills in the teens to 20s, somewhat negating the warmer temperatures and sunshine. Dry conditions will persist through tonight, with passing mid and high clouds associated with the jet stream centered just to our north. Ongoing warm advection will limit temperature falls, with readings only falling into the upper 20s inland, with temperatures bottoming out around 30 along the lake plains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Saturday, gusty winds will continue as a tight pressure gradient lingers between Low pressure moving across Quebec and High pressure over the Southeast states. Gusts to around 40mph, especially across the Niagara Frontier, can be expected only slackening some through the day as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Surface ridging extending north over our region should promote mainly dry weather beneath mostly cloudy skies. The exception to this may be east of Lake Ontario where a very weak southward pressing cold front and upslope flow may drive a slight/low chance for some either some light sprinkles or higher elevation flurries. There may even be a risk of some freezing drizzle as BUFKIT soundings continue to show the cloud bearing layer may be too warm to support ice nuclei. The gusty southwest flow will promote warm air advection which should help surface highs to push to near or about 40F. Saturday night, expect more mainly dry weather with the exception again being east of Lake Ontario and perhaps the western Southern Tier with some sprinkles or perhaps freezing drizzle. Mostly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows limited only falling back to within a few degrees either side of freezing. Sunday into Sunday night, an increasing moisture connection from the Gulf of Mexico under southwesterly flow across Western and Central NY will bring similar mild temperatures to what we also expect on Saturday. This warmth will be ahead of a warm front associated with low pressure lifting out of the Central Plains states. Despite the moisture, lift will remain rather weak Sunday only increasing slightly into Sunday night. Slight chance/Chance POPs for some sprinkles or flurries spread from the western Souther Tier north and east later Sunday into Sunday night. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday will only slip a few degrees into the 30s Sunday night. The warm front is forecast to lift across western NY to the North Country Monday where it might stall through Monday night. Very mild air in the wake of the warm front should help boost temps into the upper 40s in WNY with lower 40s more likely east of Lake Ontario. Have held onto likely POPs for rain across WNY with rain/snow/mix changing to rain in the North Country. Expecting that a cold front and low level jet, tied to low pressure lifting across the western Great Lakes, will force widespread rain Monday night. PWATs near 3/4 of an inch should bring some moderate to possibly heavy rainfall. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will keep very mild temps Monday night lingering in the 40s before falling some late. The combination of rain, and increased snowmelt from higher temperatures and dewpoints may bring some flood concern by later Monday and Monday night. This warm-up is not as dramatic as last weekend, and rain amounts are also likely to be lower given the fast passage of the cold front. Nonetheless, there may be some potential for ice jam flooding by late Monday and Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday into Wednesday, colder air will rush back into the region with a blustery west wind behind the cold front. This will bring a return to more typical mid-winter temperatures for mid-week. High temps in the 30s and low temps in the 20s. Moisture and lift associated with a passing mid-level trough axis will drive a chance for some scattered snow showers Tuesday with lake effect snow also becoming more likely. By Wednesday, much of the synoptic moisture looks to be removed but mesoscale processes will leave chances for lake effect snow east of the lakes into Wednesday night. Will have to keep an eye on how the ice cover on Lake Erie evolves over the early week warmup, as it will have an impact on the magnitude of whatever lake effect snows develops in Western NY. Thursday we expect a continuation of mid-winter temperatures. Both GFS and EC show a shortwave trough passing across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night or Thursday but timing between the models is spread a bit to far for any higher confidence than slight chance POPs at this range. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A fast-moving upper level disturbance will continue to track east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Veering southwesterly flow behind this system will allow for the re-development of a MVFR cigs along with a few lake enhanced snow showers east of Lake Ontario this morning east of Lake Ontario, including KART. Any lingering snow showers should dissipate after 18Z, as temperatures aloft warm in the wake of the disturbance, though MVFR cigs will linger through much of the day, before lifting into a VFR deck after 00Z Sat. Elsewhere, aside from morning MVFR cigs in the Niagara Frontier, VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period, as dry air and warm advection aloft will stifle any lake effect activity. However, strong westerly flow aloft will also continue throughout the period. These winds will mix down during the day on Friday, producing gusts to 30 kts. Gusts will subside after sunset on Friday, however the strong winds aloft will remain, and the low-level jet will strengthen to in excess of 50 kts Friday night, resulting in widespread areas of LLWS after 00Z Sat. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday...Widespread MVFR ceilings redeveloping on Saturday...then persisting through Saturday night and Sunday. Monday and Monday night...VFR/MVFR with rain showers developing. Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers changing to snow showers before ending...then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the lakes Tuesday night. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
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&& .MARINE... A persistent pressure gradient will maintain brisk west- southwesterly flow across the lakes into the upcoming weekend, and small craft advisories remain in place into Saturday night. In addition, a slight strengthening of already brisk southwest flow ahead of another weak upper level disturbance may push winds just above gale force on the open waters of the western end of Lake Ontario for a time Friday night into early Saturday morning, and a gale watch has been hoisted in anticipation of this possibility. Otherwise, high pressure nosing across the region will relax the winds Sunday before winds freshen once again on Monday ahead of a strong low pressure system tracking out of the central Plains. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for LOZ062-063. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOOD NEAR TERM...WOOD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...WOOD

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