Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 011149 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT 850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. 12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH

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