Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 180808 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 408 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM RADARS PRESENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG MUCH OF ITS LENGTH...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS JUST STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE A NOTABLE UPPER JET RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS JET WILL FURTHER AROUSE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL ALIGN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. GIVEN THESE EXPECTATIONS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT EASES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO CLEAR THE AREA OUT OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR DRAPED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. AS A RESULT...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS RANGING FROM ABOUT +1C ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TO -4/-5C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH LAKES WILL BE KEPT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BY THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH JUST A LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES IN OUR DIRECTION FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...THEN A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL HELP SEND TEMPS BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE 850 MB TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT FARE TOO BADLY EITHER WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EVEN THERE. THE ABOVE STATED...AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL AGAIN BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THEIR INLAND COUNTERPARTS... THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER HELPS KEY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE ENCROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BOTH BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND SHOULD THUS REMAIN DRY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A MORE LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN CONSIDERABLY MILDER AIRMASS IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO THE +6C TO +9C RANGE ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BE KEPT A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND GREATER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW SLIDING EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME CONFINED TO THE HIGH-END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UPWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE SHOULD THE INCREASED AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO HOLD. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AIRMASS PERHAPS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH APPEAR TO BE QUIET AND DRY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT APPEARS THAT SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS READINGS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.