Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 270245 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1045 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading up to and into the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Western and North-Central New York will stew in a very warm and muggy airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May tonight as dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie only falling into the upper 60s. Finally, there will be a slight chance for a round of showers late tonight/early Friday morning across the Southern Tier, tied to another upper level shortwave currently depicted over NW Ohio. This disturbance is progged to weaken by the time it reaches the Southern Tier...nonetheless given the soupy airmass in place, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. Moving farther into Friday, a burgeoning upper level ridge bulging into the Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as 850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid 80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a detrimental effect on the development of any organized convection...however, given the moist and unstable airmass in place with SBCAPES progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon inland from the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake breeze boundaries providing the impetus for convection. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday. This will bring mid- summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend. The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling overnight. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday. Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance for showers late Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into the lower 80s for many areas. Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny skies both days. Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... No significant changes for the 03Z update as it is a generally quiet night with VFR conditions at most locations. However, there will be a risk for patchy fog across portions of the forecast area given high surface dewpoints in the 60s and light winds, primarily across the areas that saw heavier rain today. A secondary weak disturbance may bring a few more showers to the Southern Tier around 09-12Z Friday, however confidence in this feature and resultant convective potential remains low. Moving into Friday, the warm, moist, and unstable airmass in place will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Any convection should be largely tied to the lake breeze and be confined to high terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon, with little threat expected across TAF sites. Outlook... Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will settle over the east coast through the holiday weekend. An increase in heat and humidity will allow some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will remain fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern will continue through the end of the week, although thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times each day through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are the records for our three climate stations. BUFFALO... Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987 ......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987 ROCHESTER... Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978 ......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911 ......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908 WATERTOWN... Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960 ......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006 A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT. Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871, while records for Watertown start in 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD NEAR TERM...WOOD SHORT TERM...APFFEL LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...SMITH/WOOD CLIMATE...THOMAS

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