Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 231022 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 622 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SITUATED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE IN A SIMILAR MANNER. IN THE PROCESS...THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A LARGE ATTENDANT SWATH OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEES PROGRESSIVELY LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. GIVEN THE CONSEQUENT INCREASE IN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW...AND A STILL MARGINALLY-COOL AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW LAKE/ OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EASILY REMAIN DRY. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...AND AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CONSOLIDATES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SKIES ONCE AGAIN BECOMING CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER REAL BLEMISH ON THE FORECAST WILL BE SOME VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH WILL AFFECT THAT PART OF OUR AREA BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN +6C AND +9C TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. EXPECT READINGS TO LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS CONFINED TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS /UPPER 40S/ FOUND ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE COOLEST READINGS /LOWER 40S/ CONFINED TO FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS HAS BEEN PROMISED FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS IMPRESSIVE RIDGING WILL TAKE A DOMINANT STANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. INITIALLY... BROAD BASED RIDGING WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER 48...BUT AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL FEED INTO A DEEPENING CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY AN ALREADY NOTE WORTHY DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE STATES....LEADING TO +3 STD HGT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RETURN INTERVAL FOR SUCH A COMMANDING RIDGE AT THIS OF YEAR ARE LESS FREQUENT THAN ONCE IN A 30 YEAR SPAN. THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION WITH A GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND OUR TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS SUN FILLED SKIES WILL SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S (60S ABV 1800`). THE FINE WEATHER WILL NOT COME WITHOUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH. A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT FIELD (IE. DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE) WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME THICK CIRRUS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEBULOUS...DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY STALL ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST AREA AND EFFECTIVELY SHUNT/DEFLECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THINNING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY FRIDAY...THE SPLIT FLOW FEATURING THE BROAD BASED RIDGE WILL PHASE INTO ONE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +590DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE AFOREMENTIONED `FLY IN THE OINTMENT` SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM OUR REGION WHILE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE A SALUBRIOUS EARLY FALL DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS OF 12C BOOSTING OUR MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES F ABV NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE HELPING TO PUSH A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THAT TIME...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALL IN ALL...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SITUATED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE IN A SIMILAR MANNER. IN THE PROCESS...THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A LARGE ATTENDANT SWATH OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEES PROGRESSIVELY LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST EROSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AS THE THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CONSOLIDATES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN A RETURN TO UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER ON TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FINALLY FALLEN TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO...SO HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THAT LAKE. OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING A NEUTRAL TO WEAK ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. A SUITE OF THEIR DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. WHILE THE PHASE OF THE ENSO EVENT (EL NINO VERSUS LA NINA) IS IMPORTANT TO WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK... LOCAL RESEARCH HAS FOUND A MODERATE TO STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSO EVENT AND THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE `WARMEST` WINTER MONTHS (AS DEFINED BY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE) HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS...WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR HARSH WINTERS. SINCE 1950...18 OF THE TOP 20 `COLDEST` WINTERS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE TAKEN PLACE DURING A WEAK TO NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE TELECONNECTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET STREAM PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS FREQUENT INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR AND CAN BE REINFORCED BY A WINTER THAT FEATURES RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND. SUPPORTING THIS ARGUMENT IS ANOTHER INTERESTING SET OF STATISTICS. SINCE 1950...WE HAVE HAD THREE WINTERS WHERE ALL FIVE WINTER MONTHS (NOV-MARCH) HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL...AND FIVE WINTERS WHERE FOUR OF THE FIVE MONTHS WERE BELOW NORMAL...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT HARSH WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN USING JUST ONE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN MAKING LONG RANGE FORECASTING THOUGH. FOR EXAMPLE...A PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW COULD HELP TO FLATTEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THEREBY NEGATE A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR CLIMATE...RSH

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