Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 300116 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 816 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN OF FAIR...BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...THE RELATIVELY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL...CONTINUED HGT FALLS AND THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TOTALS OF A COUPLE INCHES IN MOST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL THUS KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH READINGS DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS WNY BY DAWN TOMORROW...AND UPPER TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER TOMORROW WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE THE COLD AIR...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FEET...AND THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE ORGANIZED. EXPECT SPOTTY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH FROM MONROE COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM UPSTREAM LAKE HURON MOISTURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE THIN SPOTS ON LAKE ERIE...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A SPOTTY DUSTING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO FARTHER INLAND. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET MUCH COLDER WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW AND SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE. EXPECTED LOWS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND CHILL FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH BATCH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF KEEPING A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW IS NOTED IN THE 12Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH HAD BEEN HANGING ONTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS ABANDONED IT WITH THE 12Z RUN...TAKING A MUCH WEAKER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A LOOK THROUGH THE INDIVIDUAL 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MAJORITY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL RUNS WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. WITH THE ONGOING ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OVER ALASKA...THERE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME FUTURE MODEL CHANGES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK. EVEN THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE MAINTAINED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR. OTHERWISE A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3SM. MEANWHILE CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 800-1500 FEET OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO...WITH CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. ON FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 2 MILES. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL GENERATE WAVES UP TO 7 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUCH...SCA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>008- 012-019-020-085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH/THOMAS NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH/THOMAS

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