Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 030240 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT... PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY... AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN. WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY. UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH LAKES TUESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH NEAR TERM...AR/RSH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...WCH AVIATION...RSH MARINE...AR/RSH

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