Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 041933 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ALLEGANY COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE TUG HILL REGION. OBJECTIVE RUC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 500-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIFTS EAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AT AROUND 5K FEET WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TREND SKIES FROM MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND WARM UNDER THE LONG HOURS OF EARLY SUMMER DAYLIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S ON THE HILLS AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO +16 TO +18C WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE MAY... ALSO AIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM SPOT NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS FAR WNY LATER MONDAY...AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT /WITHIN A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/ WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REMAINING AT ONLY 70F FOR A LOW. ON TUESDAY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL STEER A MID-LEVEL WAVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND +16 TO +18C... ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED. SOME WEAK CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WAVES MAY PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA... ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK INTO TUESDAY EVENING... AND THUS EXPECT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S... WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER STALLING OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL... AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR FROM A WASHOUT. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW AFTER 06Z. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF KJHW WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM 06Z-12Z. ON SUNDAY ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT ALL TAF SITES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND PRODUCING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...CHURCH AVIATION...AR/HITCHCOCK MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK

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