Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 210225 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND CMC. ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE. A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK

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