Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 240613 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 213 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN NATURE. GIVEN THE ABOVE DICHOTOMY IN CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE MID 40S FURTHER EAST. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY. GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN NEAR THE STATE LINE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. IN THIS LATTER REGION...LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING. THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME IFR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT... IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN NATURE. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE...WITH ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY RECEDING EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...JJR MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR

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