Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 281446 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 946 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS BLACK FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOUND EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE COLD WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THOUGH...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AN AVERAGE OF 25 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THEN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WHILE THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW...WE CAN EXPECT ONE MORE COLD DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WINTER WEATHER THAT WE HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED...IT IS EASY TO FORGET THAT AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THANKSGIVING ARE CLOSE TO 40. THE MAIN PROBLEM TO ADDRESS TODAY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OF -15C AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY (LK TEMPS NR 6C) TO PRODUCE SOME AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS. OFF LK ERIE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS NOTABLY DRIER AIR ABV 4K FT AND A CRASHING INVERSION WILL TAKE HOLD BY MID MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK IN ITS WAKE...THE WEAKENING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCUMS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHTOWNS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHTOWNS TO THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AND BE RATHER CELLULAR...WITH SPOTTY/BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS. OFF LK ONTARIO...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...A CAP ABV 10K FT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... AND AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY SHOULD ALL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE SNOW THAT WILL INITIALLY SET UP OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY AND EXTEND ACROSS NRN CAYUGA COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THE 290-300 FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE VERY SLOWLY BACKING TO ALLOW THE BAND TO LIFT TO CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 12-18Z...WITH SOME WEAKENING FORECAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A LOWERING CAP AND DRY ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE LATE TODAY...THE BAND MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STRENGTHENING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE LAKE AND TAKES FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE FETCH. THIS BRIEF INTENSIFICATION IS BEING DEPICTED BY THE ON-STATION 06Z MESOSCALE MODELS AND IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE RELIABLE REGIONAL GEM. A LOW END WARNING FOR OSWEGO AND NRN CAYUGA CONTINUES AS A RESULT WITH A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY TIL 00Z FOR WAYNE COUNTY. FOR TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE A WEALTH OF CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION. THE PROCESS WILL BRING AN END TO THE LK ERIE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON...WHILE THE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT (LOW 20S) BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM THE NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND BORDER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE ENSUING SOUTHERLY/ SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE LOW PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY BROAD/WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CONSEQUENTLY SPITS OUT ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. AS SUCH...WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE READINGS MODERATING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARMING ALOFT... THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT THE START OF SATURDAY MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE INSIGNIFICANT... AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC...AND OUR REGION REMAINS SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR. UNDER A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +3C EAST AND AROUND +8C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE GENERAL RULE WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THESE THEN MIXING WITH AND/OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE STEADILY COOLS BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ONLY SHOW VERY LIMITED RECOVERY ON MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FRESH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED BY BOTH A LOW /3-5 KFT/ CAP AND THE RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...AND SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND EVEN DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHTENING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT... OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE COLD TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO AROUND 20 ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND... WHILE PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. THIS STATED THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME BEING ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER GENERAL CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE AGAIN LIKELY TO BE RATHER MUTED BY THE RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE LAKE SNOWS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTH. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF AND KIAG EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND AT KART AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE TOP OF THE SFC RIDGE TO PRODUCE FRESH BREEZES ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP SCA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ON BOTH LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL SCAS TO EXPIRE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL THEN FRESHEN SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRESH ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH/ZAFF

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