Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 010544 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON EAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION... COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER. H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF MARINE...RSH

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