Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 262354 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION... WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...FRANKLIN MARINE...FRANKLIN

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