Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 231818 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to bring fair and warm weather through the rest of the weekend and the first half of next week. An approaching cold front may finally bring a chance of showers Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures arriving for the second half of the week in the wake of the cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure continues to produce cloudless skies and warm temperatures across western and north-central New York this afternoon, and will remain in place into next week. As such, expect fair skies this evening. The clear skies and light winds will once again result in a favorable setup for the development of radiation fog overnight, particularly as dewpoints will be slightly higher. Most likely locales will be in the typical river valley locations, as well as low-lying areas near ponds/wetlands. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, expect temperatures overnight to only fall into the low to mid 60s with warmest readings near lakes and cities. As mentioned above, high pressure will remain firmly in control on Sunday, bringing yet more sunshine. 850mb temps will be even warmer than today, approaching +20C. As such, expect afternoon highs to flirt with record levels, with readings climbing into the mid to upper 80s across many locations, with low to mid 80s across higher terrain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An anomalous 590 dm upper high will remain centered across the region Sunday night. Through Monday and Tuesday, the center of this high will shift off the East Coast although strong ridging of 587dm-588dm will remain across our region. A strong mid-level low is forecast to lift out of the West Coast trough to the North Plains region reaming to our west until the second half of the week. At the surface, Hurricane Maria is forecast to be off the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday night without any impacts locally. High pressure ridged across western and north-central New York will maintain dry and fair weather ahead of an approaching cold front near the Central Great Lakes. This weather pattern will maintain mid-summer warmth across western and north central New York through midweek with dry conditions remaining through at least Tuesday night. Skies will be clear outside of periodic thin high cloud cover and patchy morning stratus. 850 mb temperatures underneath the ridge will run between +18C and +20C Monday then cooling some to around +17C by Tuesday. This supports highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Monday and only a degree or two cooler on Tuesday. The warmest readings are expected across inland areas away from local lake breeze circulations. It also remain very humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot, despite the calender date with Heat Index values pushing into the 90s if not the air temperatures. It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be challenged again Monday, particularly at Buffalo and Rochester. Buffalo`s record high for Monday is 87, while Rochester`s record high is 92. Buffalo stands the best chance at breaking a daily record high temperature with a forecast of 89/90 degrees. Ironically Buffalo made it the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree mark, but now that we are officially in Autumn, Buffalo may make a run at the 90 degree mark. Nighttime low temperatures will be on the uncomfortable side due to the high dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The humid airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also result in areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of next week going into the beginning of October. Global models are in good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door for troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast, as we have seen for much of the summer. The ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper Great Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain well above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. A weak cold front will cross the region but QPF is minimal with scattered showers and possible a thunderstorm. The 00Z ECMWF is faster than GFS/GGEM guidance, with consensus timing in the late Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. Despite much cooler air expected to spill across the region in the wake of the cold front passage, this airmass change will only get us back down to near more seasonal values by late week, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. A shortwave will dive across the Lower Great Lakes Friday, with another shot of cooler air. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid 60s. The air aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement, with a chance of showers on Friday with the shortwave. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to bring clear skies through this evening. The clear skies and light winds tonight will once again result in areas of fog, particularly in the river valleys and in low- lying areas, including KART and KFZY, after 06Z. Fog should dissipate around 12-13Z Sunday, with more VFR conditions expected thereafter, as high pressure remains in place. Outlook... Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late night and early morning with fog. Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOOD NEAR TERM...WOOD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...HITCHCOCK

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