Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 270608 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 208 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will track across the Eastern Great Lakes this morning. Dry weather will persist until a weak cold front drops southward from Canada tonight bringing a few stray showers and thunderstorms to the North Country tonight and Thursday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend as a broad trough temporarily digs into the Great Lakes and Northeast States.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High pressure is ridged across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast States early this morning. This will continue to provide fair weather with infrared satellite imagery showing clear skies. The clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario regions, and to the lower 60s elsewhere. There is likely some river valley fog forming across the Southern Tier as KJHW briefly reported 1 1/4SM visibility at 06z. Skies will start nearly clear after sunrise but a weakening cold front moving southward across Ontario will bring increasing high and some mid clouds to the region during the afternoon. There will be a low chance to slight chance of convection north of Lake Ontario and east across the Saint Lawrence valley along the leading edge of the slow moving cold front, mainly late afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas, with around 90 degrees across the interior valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The weather will become increasingly unsettled across the region during this period...as a low amplitude trough over the Great Lakes will eventually support the development of at least one sfc wave over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states. While this scenario will lead to some showers and thunderstorms...especially over the Southern Tier...significant rains are not expected. The details... A weak cool front will sag south across our forecast area late Wednesday night and Thursday. Since there will be little if any synoptic forcing from this feature...any showers or thunderstorms will have to be generated from diurnally induced instability during the day Thursday. For the overwhelming majority of the forecast area though...this 24 hour period should be rain free. Mid level energy currently over the Mississippi Delta will drift north and eventually get picked up by the westerlies Thursday night...at which time it will develop a wave along a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley. This will be part of the same front that limped through our region earlier in the period. In any case...the wave is expected to push east along the boundary...moving well south of our forecast area. While the bulk of the associated showers from this wave will be found over Pennsylvania...forcing from the sfc wave could produce a few showers over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions. On Friday...the wave over Pennsylvania will gradually push off the New Jersey coast. While this will keep the bulk of the associated showers and thunderstorms south of the border...there will be the opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms over our region. Any such pcpn will remain focused on the Southern Tier and southern portions of the Finger Lakes. The synoptic forcing will exit our region Friday evening...so there will be a diminishing chance for any pcpn over our forecast area with the bulk of the night being damp but rainfree. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The medium range guidance packages remain somewhat out of sync during this period...only coming together in their solutions as we come out of the weekend. This will result in relatively low confidence in the forecast for the weekend...which could be rather unsettled for parts of the area. The disagreement between the medium range ensembles comes down to the position of a wavy frontal boundary over the Mid Atlantic Region. Initially...this will continue to serve as a pathway for individual waves to cross from the Ohio Valley. The northern fringes of these features will enhance the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Tier...while areas further north will be more influenced from high pressure centered over eastern Canada. As we exit the weekend...the Canadian sfc high will become more dominant..moving further to the south over the Lower Great Lakes. This will encourage fair weather to return to all of the forecast area while temperatures will average just a few degrees above normal late July normals. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will persist through today as high pressure remains in control. There is likely some river valley fog forming across the Southern Tier as KJHW briefly reported IFR VIS at 06z. This may result in a few hours of variable visibility at JHW. Otherwise there will be an increasing high cloud cover later today as a weak cold frontal boundary drifts south over the Lake Ontario basin and St. Lawrence River valley. Outlook... Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will remain across the Eastern Great Lakes through today with a weak cold front pressing south across Lake Ontario tonight. This will then be followed by another high pressure area late in the week. Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft criteria into the beginning of the weekend.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH

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