Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 300259 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1059 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SUMMER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SPRINKLES AS ELEVATED SHOWERS FALL INTO DRIER AIR BELOW. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL END EARLY AS THE WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY CENTER MOVES EAST AND DAMPENS OUT. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AROUND 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK ASCENT...ALONG WITH INLAND ADVANCING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA LESSER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY FROM THE DEPARTING MORNING WAVE AND THEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKESHORES WHERE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER/INTERIOR FINGER LAKES AT THE START OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING BEHIND QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE- WISE...EXPECT LOWS TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AFTER THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALONG WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TOGETHER...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WELL AS MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT IN THE MID 80S...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS /AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION... WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD SAG INTO OUR REGION AT SOME POINT LATER ON IN THE WEEK...ANY SUCH FEATURE WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...AND WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE STARVED FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. GIVEN BOTH THIS AND CONTINUED VARIANCES SEEN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING /OR EVEN THE PRESENCE OF/ THIS FEATURE...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND BELOW. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN UNSATURATED AND QUITE DRY. ON SUNDAY...ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AGAIN CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IT WOULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH MARINE...HITCHCOCK

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