Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 161811 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREND NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP. TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LEVAN NEAR TERM...LEVAN SHORT TERM...APFFEL LONG TERM...APFFEL AVIATION...LEVAN MARINE...LEVAN HYDROLOGY...JJR

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