Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 271457 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1057 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 15Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR REGION INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK. PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL DECK SEEN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR READINGS TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 15Z...MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE BUF...ROC AND JHW TERMINALS WITH OUR TWO NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS (IAG/ART) NOW BOTH VFR AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A STILL A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ART. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES GOING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...A MID LEVEL DECK SEEN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TEMPS ALOFT WILL BECOME JUST COOL ENOUGH ON A NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS VERY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...WOOD AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.