Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 051442 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 942 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE COMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW STREAMERS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FALLING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT -20C ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE TO PERSIST THESE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION IN SNOW WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 4-5K FEET. EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE A SPOT FLURRY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NIAGARA RIVER REGION NOT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING COMMENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AS ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET MUCH OF THE DIABATIC HEATING...LEADING TO HIGHS THAT WILL BARELY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE REGION-WIDE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKES STAYING ABOVE ZERO WHILE AREAS INLAND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT EVENING BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS CHILLS WILL CERTAINLY WILL RUN CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...THEY SHOULD STAY JUST A HAIR ABOVE THE -15 THRESHOLD THANKS TO THE SLACKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD SUNSHINE THROUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM A 850MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WHICH HOLDS BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BUT WITHIN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS A COATING TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY DENDRITES COULD ACCUMULATE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 30 DEGREES SATURDAY. ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE A WEAK CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO FEATURE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT THE PREVIOUS SURFACE TROUGH. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX SHOULD BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LIKELY POPS FEATURED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE GFS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN POPS. THE SNOW AND CLOUD COVER AND MISSING DIRECT PATHWAY TO ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE CLIPPER DEPARTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WARMING ALOFT AS A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL 500MB FLOW TAKES SHAPE INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN FINALLY INTO AT LEAST THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 00Z GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING A CHANCE AT 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BOTH DAYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW LONG THE WARMING TREND WILL LAST. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL WITHIN THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER BAJA. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 2500 FT POSSIBLE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID WEST BUILDS EASTWARD WINDS OVER THE LAKES WILL DIMINISH...WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LIGHTER TONIGHT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WOOD NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.