Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 031444 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

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