Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 261523 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1123 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary near the Mason Dixon line this morning will move north as a warm front across New York State late today. This will bring a return of some rain late this afternoon and and evening over far Western New York, then over Central New York later tonight. Another cold front may bring additional scattered rain showers to the region Tuesday before an area of high pressure brings drier air and cooler weather to the region later this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light rain along a baroclinic boundary over the Eastern Lake Ontario region has continued to weaken while moving east. Meanwhile, temperatures in that region have reached the freezing mark underneath what`s left of the band. Will therefore let the Freezing Rain Advisory expire as scheduled. For the rest of the Western NY today...a stout warm nose can be seen in morning AMDAR and 12Z sounding data. Temperatures peak at about 15C near 900mb or roughly 3000`. There is a weak EML above this level with notably drier air working its way into the region. With the deterioration of some of the low stratus stuck below this inversion, some breaks of sun can be expected for areas west of the Genesee Valley. This will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 50s, and perhaps a little higher with more insolation. It`s getting little bubbly to the south over the OH valley along a warm front that`s tied to the surface low nearing Chicago (underneath it`s parent cutoff low). Expect continued convective development to move northeast through OH and eventually reaching far Western NY late this afternoon or early evening. Expect 1 or two rounds to work NE into the region, with some thunder possible at least toward the Southern Tier in the relatively warm and convective airmass. With the passage of the next frontal boundary, expect southeast winds to veer to southerly overnight. This will keep temperatures mild when compared to many of the previous nights. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will track from Western New York to New England on Monday. The best lift will be ahead of the 500 mb trough axis, with steady rain lasting into Monday morning east of Lake Ontario. Even here rainfall amounts will be light, averaging about a tenth of an inch. Otherwise, precipitation will taper off showers from west to east. By Monday afternoon, expect fair weather across most of Western New York with pleasantly warm temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Scattered showers will linger across the Eastern Lake Ontario region, limiting highs to the upper 40s. The region will be between systems briefly Monday evening, with weak mid-level ridging keeping it dry. Up until this point, model guidance is in good agreement in timing the initial shortwave but guidance diverges a bit after this. There is general agreement a mid- level wave will cross Ohio Monday night, but the northern extent of showers with this wave is still in question. This is likely to bring showers to the region, with model consensus centered around the Tuesday morning timeframe. These should only last a few hours, with rainfall amounts averaging a quarter inch or less. Showers should end by Tuesday afternoon across far western New York, which should allow temperatures to rebound a bit. Highs will range from lower 60s across the Western Southern Tier to the upper 40s across the Eastern Lake Ontario region where showers should last through the afternoon hours. An upper level trough will settle across Southern Quebec on Tuesday night while a northerly flow develops behind the departing surface low. This will bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region, with temperatures falling into the 30s Tuesday night. There may be some light upslope enhanced showers. These may mix with snow across the North County, but no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The very lengthy period of unsettled weather will finally come to an end by Wednesday as a mid level trough digs southeast across Quebec and forces the frontal zone well south of our area. This will bring an end to any lingering showers by Wednesday morning, but will also deliver another push of cooler air into our region. The GFS is far colder Wednesday than the ECMWF or GEM with its more amplified and southerly trough position. Have followed a ECMWF/GEM weighted consensus with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will build across Quebec Wednesday night and Thursday with a ridge extending down into the eastern Great Lakes and New England. This will provide a continuation of dry and cool weather with highs in the 40s again Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most. Model guidance diverges significantly by Friday and Saturday. The GFS continues to suppress the next system well south of our area with the moisture and forcing moving through the southeast states. Similar to yesterday`s 12Z guidance, the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian GEM are vastly different, taking a surface low through the central Great Lakes. Have continued to lean towards the ECMWF/GEM consensus for this period with rain chances increasing Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will begin to rebound if this farther north low track verifies, with highs back in the 50s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation has for the most part moved east of the eastern Lake Ontario region this morning while temperatures has moved above freezing. For the rest of the day expect a mixture of clouds and some breaks of sun...mainly east of the Genesee Valley under VFR conditions. 1 or two bands or showers with some thunderstorms possible will move toward far Western NY late this afternoon from the OH valley. Expect a broken line or lines to continue moving across the Genesee Valley and into the Eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. There will be an increasing chance for MVFR and some IFR conditions from CIGS with the passage of these showers...particularly in the hilly terrain toward the PA border. Outlook... Monday...MVFR/IFR to start in rain showers, then improving in P.M. Tuesday...MVFR/IFR cigs with periods of rain. Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast winds will continue today across the Lower Great Lakes, with a strong breeze and increasing wave heights continuing the small craft advisory on the western waters of Lake Ontario. Later today and tonight winds will veer to southeast and then southerly as an area of low pressure tracks across the central Great Lakes and towards NW Lake Ontario. As these winds veer, they will increase some on the eastern half of Lake Ontario, such that low end SCA wind thresholds will be met. Will issue a SCA for the eastern waters for late this afternoon through tonight. This area of low pressure will track north of Lake Ontario Monday, and in its weaken state, and warm air over the cold lake waters, both winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042- 043. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF SHORT TERM...APFFEL LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK AVIATION...THOMAS/ZAFF MARINE...THOMAS

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