Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 190303 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1103 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT 1100 PM...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND 900MB. CLOUDS WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY. HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST OF VALLEYS. IN THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES...AND WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER... ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 03Z...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS VFR...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ON LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A MODEST FLOW...AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS JHW...BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM N TO E WITH AN AREA OF LAKE CLOUDS LIKELY TO CLIP ROC/BUF/IAG BRIEFLY. EVEN SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BEFORE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD. FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER (POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008. FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...APFFEL/JM MARINE...APFFEL/JM

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