Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 221101 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 701 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TODAY...THE BACKSIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ DRAW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INLAND AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SOME LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT 130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR. GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...WOOD AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR

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