Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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345 FXUS61 KBUF 271833 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 233 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely separated showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered over the Carolinas this afternoon is continuing to pump warm and humid air north across western and central NY. An upper level ridge is also in place across the East Coast setting a pattern that is bringing mid-summer like weather to the region. Temperatures are running in the upper 70s to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s at 2pm. Visible satellite imagery shows a nice cumulus field inland of the the stable flow east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Thunderstorms that fired around lunchtime along the southern shore of Lake Ontario continue to track across the central Finger Lakes. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a pool of 1000-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE across the Finger Lakes into Central NY with a bullseye east of SYR. These unstable conditions will continue to support chances for scattered thunderstorm activity firing on lake breeze boundaries well inland from the Great Lakes through this evening. This would mainly be confined to south and east of Rochester with a fairly stable environment to the west thanks to the Lake Erie lake breeze. Similar to yesterday weak wind shear and poor mid-level lapse rates and riding aloft will keep storms sub-severe. Any remaining showers or thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes or Southern Tier this evening will quickly subside with the setting sun. Expect another warm and humid night across western and north central New York with temperatures only settling into the low to mid 60s. These values will be more typical of those found in July or early August. On Saturday expect similar conditions to what we are seeing this afternoon. Warm and humid temperatures and chances of showers and thunderstorms firing along lake breezes. We will see an uptick again in surface temperatures as 850mb level temperatures rise another degree or two to around 18C. This combined with subsidence from increasing 500mb ridging aloft will help boost surface highs into the mid to upper 80s for most with 90 possible with light downslope flow in the Genesee Valley and below the Niagara Escarpment. Combine these temperatures with the high humidity and heat index values will push into the 90s across many locations. Some of these temperatures will challenge record highs with more detail in the Climate section below. While these are not Heat Advisory level...this will be the warmest day of the year so those not yet acclimated to the heat should take precaution. Concerning the thunderstorm chances, the same problems that are limiting storm intensity today (Friday) will also limit intensity tomorrow. Coverage should again remain mainly south and east of ROC but can`t rule out some activity firing west of ROC south of Lake Ontario toward Niagara Falls. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east. The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity through the first part of the period. Temperatures Sunday will just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s in most spots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of previous convection. A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region. The passage of the cool front will bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within a few degrees of 80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny skies both days. Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through tonight and Saturday as ridging at the surface and aloft contribute to mid-summer like weather. Expect TSRA to remain confined to South and East of ROC, including KJHW, where a storm tracking over the airfield could bring tempo sub- VFR. Otherwise any early evening convection will quickly dissipate. Similar conditons expected on Saturday as what we are seeing today with high pressure remaining in control. Storms may fire along lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon near KROC and KJHW so have covered this will VCSH as convection is not expected until after 18z. All other sites should be free of storms thanks to stable lake breeze flow. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly fair weather in place through at least the first half of the Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze boundaries this afternoon and tomorrow may clip the nearshore waters. Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves. While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move across the region. && .CLIMATE... The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are the records for our three climate stations. BUFFALO... Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987 ......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987 ROCHESTER... Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978 ......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911 ......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006 ......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908 WATERTOWN... Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960 ......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991 Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987 Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012 ......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006 A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT. Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871, while records for Watertown start in 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...LEVAN LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...RSH/SMITH CLIMATE...THOMAS

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