Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 221946 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 346 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO 2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG. AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...FRANKLIN MARINE...FRANKLIN

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