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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 081815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
115 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TONIGHT
WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MODERATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT 100 PM...A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE STEADIEST IS
NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...WHERE THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. NORTH OF THIS...THERE IS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN DRIZZLE SINCE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH. THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL END BY MID-
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE...COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE JUST UPSTREAM...WHICH
WILL CHANGE ALL  PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -13C. THIS WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET. ALL OF OUR LOCALLY RUN 6KM
WORKSTATION WRF MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION FROM THE OPERATIONAL NAM
AND CANADIAN GEM AS WELL. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE GREATER
ROCHESTER AREA INITIALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH FLOW SLOWLY
BACKING LATE TONIGHT AND CARRYING LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
INTO WAYNE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. THE FLOW HAS
ENOUGH NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO FORCE A MULTIPLE BAND CONFIGURATION...
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY FROM ROCHESTER TO NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT BANDS.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS
WESTERN NY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING WITH NO OFF LAKE TRAJECTORY. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND UPPER TEENS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BENEATH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE COLDER WITH ITS EARLIER
CLEARING...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER NEW YORK STATE AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BACK THE WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIFT THE WEAK LAKE EFFECT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION ALL
WHILE SUBSIDENCE SQUASHES OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE CAPPED IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WILL BE A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND JET MAXIMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD HELPING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN TOWARD THE LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.

AN INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MORE LIKELY POPS ARE FOCUSED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPING ON THE TUG MAY ALLOW A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. ON MONDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND COMPACT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
RAIN SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD 40 DEGREES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS CHANGEOVER MAY NOT OCCUR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AND
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE FAR WEST AND A DEEPENING MIDCONTINENTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE NO EXCEPTION AS ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
LATE WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FRESH PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION REGARDING
TRACK AND TIMING. ALL POSSIBILITIES REMAIN ON THE TABLE AT THIS
POINT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY FROM DRY AND COLD TO A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE ANY SENSE OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY EMERGES.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STORM AND WILL
CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT 18Z...A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD OF THE
REGION...LEAVING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS BOTH DUE TO
LOW CIGS...LIGHT FOG...AND SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

TONIGHT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BECOME MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS...INCLUDING NEAR KROC
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK