Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 051846 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 246 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AND EXCEED NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEARING THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND. RADARS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE OF A LINGERING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. THOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF YET OVER OUR REGION THE LIMITED INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG COULD PRODUCE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES FARTHER SEWARD EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TO WANE EARLY THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION DRY. WE SHOULD THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TO APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. TOMORROW AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE IT WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK OVER OUR REGION...THIS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WITHIN THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS HERE...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NW AREAS OF WNY AND THE SLV. THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY TOMORROW AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE TOMORROW...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...A 4 TO 6C 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. AS THE THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. THE CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WHILE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOOK POSSIBLE EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. LAKESHORE AREAS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SET UP. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO OPEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LASTEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IT WILL CONSOLIDATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON BAY AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S. FOR THE MOST PART...THE DAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOME ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH THE OVERLYING JET LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TEMPERATURE TREND. THIS WILL INCLUDE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MERCURY READINGS. RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL SUPPLY OUR FORECAST AREA WITH FINE WEATHER...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN THE A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 18Z A NORTHEAST WIND IS SENDING A LOW DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE CLOUDS FROM KIAG TO ABOUT KROC. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT KJHW AND CONTINUE WITH A VCTS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUCH THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AIRFIELD...OR NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL REMAIN LOW. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES UPON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE WE SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. SATURDAY...VFR. SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/MVFR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS EAST OF KROC/KDSV. MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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THROUGH SATURDAY A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS PREDOMINATING...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ERIE...SUCH THAT WAVES MAY REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...THOMAS

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