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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180311
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAIR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE REGION. A PEEK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS JUST OUR WEST
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPINGE UPON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROP UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER METRO.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE
IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN
VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD