Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 262328 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 728 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK...AND WILL BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...COLD AIR WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LAY DOWN A BAND OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE HIGHER LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES JUST FREEZING AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP THAT SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING TOO HEAVILY ON PAVEMENT...KEEPING AREA ROADWAYS MAINLY WET. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC PROVINCE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...850MB TEMPS TO -12C WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND BOOST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND 850MB-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE IS JUST BARELY ENOUGH TO KICK IN A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR LONGWAVE PATTERN OF A DEEP 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...COOLING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES REGIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD 850MB FLOW WITH TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -18C WILL NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN INTO THE TEENS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO AROUND 6KFT. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ENHANCED STEAMERS LEAVING A FRESH INCH OR TWO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. FOLLOWING THIS LOW AN INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS A BROAD ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIMITED TO TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF COOL SUNSHINE MUCH OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY AND MID TEENS NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. HIGHS SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RISE INTO THE U30S. A COMPACT SURFACE LOW AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO CHANCES OF ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 30S. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50+KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET. AN INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS SIGNALS THAT WE MAY FINALLY SEE A RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START APRIL. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE TO SEE THE DEPART OF A SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMPACT SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES HELPING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO WARM TO AROUND 40 SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH WINDS RELAXING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO LARGELY FEATURE THE RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL TEMPERATURES WITH THE DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BUT TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH LOW CHANCES OF DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL A MORE CLEAR SOLUTION DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST DOES FEATURE SOME 50S BY THURSDAY BUT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 06Z...THEN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD UNTIL ABOUT 06Z TO 09Z. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BACK WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR VBSYS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON THE LOWER LAKES UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA/WCH NEAR TERM...WCH SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...TMA/WCH MARINE...CHURCH/TMA/WCH

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