Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 251558 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER 28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND 00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS KGTB. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE PASSES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD NEAR TERM...WOOD SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...RSH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.