Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 060239 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 939 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO INLAND AND AWAY FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS. SHIFTING WINDS WILL TAKE THESE WEAKENING AND NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING TO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OFF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIR MASS AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF LESS THAN 5K FEET. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE MIDWEST OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THIS SHIFTING IN THE WIND WILL CARRY ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...MEANWHILE A DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AID IN DIMINISHING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEARING IN SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ARE: BUFFALO: 0/2007, ROCHESTER: -9/2014, WATERTOWN:-21/2014. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH SUCH THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND -15F...BUT WITH BOTH TIME AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SUB -15F WIND CHILLS (-20F NORTH COUNTRY) AT A MINIMUM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. "WARMEST" OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY MAY REMAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE BACKING WINDS CARRY THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING WILL HAVE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE COLDEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE CROSS THE REGION. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE JUST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH AN INCH OR SO IN MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW INCHES EAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS WITH THE LAKE PLAINS RISING TO AROUND 30...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD CREEP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NATION. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARMING ARRIVING ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. IT STILL APPEARS THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A BROAD TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING AT LEAST SOME COOLING... WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY FRIDAY. THE WARM-UP APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE KEPT AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH NO RAIN FALLING THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK INITIALLY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL BE RELEASED AS THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WITHOUT RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THE ICE MAY VERY WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE DESPITE A FEW WARMER DAYS. OVERALL...EXPECT THIS WARM-UP TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK...BUT A GREATER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THE NEXT WARM-UP WHEN THE SNOW WILL BE MORE READY TO RELEASE ITS WATER. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST FURTHER BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BRING VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO THE KROC AIRFIELD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP ERODE ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE AIRFIELDS. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER THE LAKES WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/THOMAS NEAR TERM...AR/RSH/THOMAS SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...AR/THOMAS MARINE...AR/THOMAS

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