Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 010233 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1033 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. A THIN VEIL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. 12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH MARINE...FRANKLIN

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