Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 291533 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOL PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SURFACE TROUGHING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURES ONLY +6C AT 850MB WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS. TONIGHT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FORECASTED SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN TO DEVELOP FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER. OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY AS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FRIDAY...VFR SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.
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&& .CLIMATE... RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE STATS. EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY. THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES BACK TO 1871. 1 4.96 INCHES OCTOBER 19-20 1873 2 4.21 INCHES AUGUST 27-28 1871 3 4.20 INCHES JUNE 6-7 1980 4 4.19 INCHES AUGUST 28-29 1893 5 3.85 INCHES MAY 16-17 1974 6 3.84 INCHES JULY 27-28 2014 THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK: RANK PRECIPITATION YEAR (INCHES) 1 9.70 1947 2 8.08 1945 3 8.02 2006 4 7.51 2014 5 6.37 1897 THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY 2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH CLIMATE...THOMAS

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