Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 270221 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and Monday which will bring some showers and a few thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures for mid-week. Temperatures will rebound late in the week as high pressure moves across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front will approach the region tonight, but the bulk of the precipitation tonight will probably come from a mid-level wave which is forecast to move out ahead of the surface front. Convection with this can be seen on radar across southern Ontario into western Ohio. Model guidance is good agreement that this convection will continue to develop through this evening. The big forecast question is how well will this hold together as this 700-500mb wave of moisture from this convection moves eastward into our area late tonight. Guidance remains at odds with this, but the trend among 18Z guidance seems hold this together longer than previous guidance, and there is an overall increase on consensus QPF. This said, there is still uncertainty due to the convective nature of this and it is important to note that QPFs can be misleading due to the very moist airmass with PWATs over 2 inches. Taking these factors into consideration, will carry a mix of likely and high chance POPS with consensus suggesting the best opportunity for precipitation will be across the Western Southern Tier. Also, while not all locations will see rain tonight showers which do make it could be quite heavy. Elevated instability on BUFKIT suggests that some thunderstorms are possible in heavier showers. This will continue to be monitored as upstream convection develops. Otherwise, tonight will be a warm night with cloud cover and wind limiting radiational cooling. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to lower to mid 70s across the lake plains. What is left of the front will move across late tonight into Monday, providing an opportunity for showers at it moves through. Expect any showers to be scattered in nature Monday morning, lacking the benefit of any diurnal instability. There may be some diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms southeast of Lake Ontario on Monday afternoon. Also, air behind the boundary is only marginally colder with 850 mb temperatures still +17C behind the subtle boundary. Drying behind the mid-level wave should allow skies to clear in Western areas where highs should again rise into the upper 80s to around 90. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will move from the upper Great Lakes region toward the Northeast US Monday night through Tuesday. Underneath this trough, there will be a few weak surface boundaries that will move through Western NY. The first will likely come through dry Monday night due to the shallow nature of the front together with nocturnal timing. The second boundary will be later on Tuesday. With daytime heating together with surface lake breeze boundaries (northwest flow/well inland), there will be a chance for some inland convection. 850mb temperatures will drop to about 7-9C on a northwest flow overhead. With a well mixed boundary layer, this should result in highs mostly in the 70s. An inland cumulus field is also expected during the afternoon which should help to keep temperatures down. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...High pressure will continue move from the northern Plains states southeast toward the Ohio valley. Cold advection will no longer be taking place, but with cool air overhead, clearing skies, and light winds, both Tuesday night and Wednesday night lows should end up in the 50s most areas but in the 40s in sheltered locations. Highs Wednesday may end up a touch warmer than on Tuesday with more sunshine. There may still be some afternoon inland cumulus, but it should be less extensive than on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A long wave trough of low pressure will linger over the region through much of this period. This will exclude the area from lengthy stretches of heat, though much of this period will remain dry and sunny. Surface high pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes region will bring a sunny day Thursday with temperatures near normal. Friday the 12Z Global Models continue the trend that began with the 00z runs of bringing a cold front across the Eastern Great Lakes region Friday. Limited moisture along this front will warrant just low chance Pops for now, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours of Friday when additional daytime instability may bring a few thunderstorms as well. The front will clear the region of moisture for the start of the weekend. The 850 hPa temperatures will be dropping down into the upper single digits behind the front which will yield afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s for the start of the holiday weekend. Abundant sunshine and dry weather looks to persist right through the 4th of July holiday weekend. With low moisture, dewpoints shall be tolerable for the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A mid-level wave is forecast to move across the area in advance of a cold front which will cross late tonight and into Monday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms to the west will gradually weaken as they move into Western New York. Because the lift is from the mid- levels cloud bases should be well in the VFR category until after the frontal passage later tonight. This may result in a brief period of MVFR cigs across the Southern Tier Monday morning, but drier air should move in behind the front with increasing confidence in VFR conditions by mid-day Monday. Outlook... Monday night...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will provide fine boating conditions through this evening, with lake breeze dominated winds generally 10 knots or less. A cold front will cross the region tonight into Monday morning with a secondary cold front passage Tuesday. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with some gusts 20 to 25 knots behind these frontal passages. Waters will become more choppy, with waves approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions, but likely falling just short. A few thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally higher winds. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA SHORT TERM...ZAFF LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA MARINE...APFFEL

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