Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 211813 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL REGION. TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW. WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER. AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN... RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...WOOD AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...SMITH

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