Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 180311 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1111 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAIR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE REGION. A PEEK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS JUST OUR WEST HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPINGE UPON THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROP UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER METRO. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOOD NEAR TERM...WOOD SHORT TERM...APFFEL LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM AVIATION...WOOD MARINE...WOOD HYDROLOGY...WOOD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.