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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240228
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COOL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT AND DEFORMATION. FARTHER EAST THE
ORIGINAL AREA OF SHOWERS ALSO REMAINS...AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WHERE LOWERING
CLOUDS CIGS MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO
THE RECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.

WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.

AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.

BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING RAIN AND A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AT
LEAST MVFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY BONIFIDE FOG. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE
HIGHEST HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS.

ON FRIDAY THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE END OF RAIN...THEN SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ045.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS