Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 252332 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 632 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA. OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH 2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY. WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR. FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.