Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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296 FXUS61 KBUF 010200 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid day today ahead of the next approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and into the overnight, with some of the showers and storms capable of producing heavy rainfall at times. Showers and thunderstorms will linger through the day Tuesday, especially for the eastern half of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The flooding threat looks to be over in the Southern Tier, so the Flood Watch was allowed to expire at 10 PM. Otherwise, warm frontal lift and associated higher PWATs are accompanying convection into the North Country this evening. Occasionally heavy rain will be possible there with the thunderstorms as they move through. Elsewhere, scattered decaying convection will allow for periods of moderate showers through the night with areas of fog likely to form overnight. A cold front/surface boundary will move through the forecast area Tuesday. There is minimal cold air advection behind the boundary, however deeper moisture will diminish in it`s wake. Modest surface based instability will support a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the Finger Lakes where moisture lingers longest. A southwest wind will stabilize areas east of the Lakes. A convergence zone may develop across the Niagara Frontier Tuesday afternoon with showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Fair weather through much of this period, with a shortwave trough passing Wednesday night and Thursday creating scattered showers and thunderstorms upon it. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This period starts with fair weather as a ridge of high pressure pushes towards our region and trough over eastern Canada departs. Quiet weather for the Fourth of July with temperatures near seasonal normals and winds light. We`ll tack on 5-10 degrees to the temperatures for Saturday and Sunday ahead of a weak cold front that will settle across our region to close out the holiday weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Organized showers and thunderstorms have become very common across the area this evening as a warm front has passed north. This has left a sultry air mass in its wake with heavy rainfall resulting from thunderstorms as a result. This is leading to low visibility and low cigs with these thunderstorms. This is likely to continue for a few more hours at most terminals. Overnight, as the thunderstorm activity wanes, residual low level moisture seems likely to result in stratus and fog at most sites around or shortly after 06z. This is likely to linger at all sites until Tuesday early afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday...Early day IFR with low clouds and/or fog then MVFR/VFR with a few showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Friday and Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... A departing area of high pressure will maintain light winds today. Waves are expected to remain below a foot. A warm front will lift across the Lower Great Lakes today, with light winds on Lake Ontario backing to easterly through the day and before the warm front passes through. Behind the warm front a 10 to 15 knot south-southwesterly flow will be found tonight creating a chop on the waters. The winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft criteria through mid week though some choppy conditions will be possible at times. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...Fries/HSK SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...Fries MARINE...Thomas