Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 011450 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1050 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COURTESY OF A ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON ANY EARLY FIREWORK VIEWING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SO WHILE PICNICS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS BY THE TIME WE REACH FIREWORK VIEWING SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONE AREA WHERE FIREWORK VIEWING MAY BE AFFECTED SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILARLY...NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY KROC KBUF KJHW AND KELZ...WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW 1K FT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO SCT-BKN 1-3K FT DECKS WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG AIRFIELD. AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. && .CLIMATE... THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS. THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040- 041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/THOMAS NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/THOMAS SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD AVIATION...FRANKLIN/THOMAS MARINE...FRANKLIN/THOMAS CLIMATE...RSH

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