Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 281451 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1051 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LINGERING CLOUDS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGER BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF ROCHESTER LATE THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING. A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA MARINE...THOMAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.