Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 251054 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 654 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry and very warm weather across our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may finally bring a chance of a few light showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This front will usher in much cooler temperatures for Thursday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Areas of river valley fog will continue across the western Southern Tier through mid morning. Elsewhere expect more patchy, light fog in rural areas through early this morning. All of the fog will dissipate by 9AM-10AM. High pressure surface and aloft will remain over New England and the eastern Great Lakes today. This will continue to provide a good deal of sunshine, although there will be a modest southwest to northeast increase in high/thin cirrus clouds. Weak easterly flow in the 925mb- 800mb layer may also bring enough Atlantic moisture into the western Southern Tier to support scattered diurnal cumulus this afternoon across the higher terrain. 850mb temps around +19C will continue to support high temperatures almost 20 degrees above normal, translating to upper 80s to around 90 at lower elevations. Local lake breezes will develop and keep the immediate lakeshores a little cooler. The record highs for today are 87 in Buffalo, 92 in Rochester, and 89 in Watertown. The Buffalo high is most in jeopardy, while Rochester and Watertown will be difficult to reach. High pressure remains in place tonight. Diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening across the western Southern Tier, with a continued slow increase in high/thin cirrus clouds. Temperatures will be very mild given the now humid airmass, with lows in the upper 60s on the lake plains and lower 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. Expect more river valley fog across the western Southern Tier late tonight, with patchy lighter fog elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft to begin the period. This will maintain the dry weather pattern with much above normal temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will be around +18C Tuesday, supporting another day of unseasonably hot temperatures with most highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots making another run at the 90 degree mark. The warmest readings are expected across inland areas away from local lake breeze circulations. Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a shortwave passes to our north. This will push a weak cold front across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. This timing reflects the slightly consensus of 00Z guidance. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture with the front with the best dynamic forcing well to our north. Expect a few showers with the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, but these will be scattered in nature with many areas likely to dodge this small chance of rain. Temperatures will still be well above normal on Wednesday, with the front not crossing until late in the day. Even with its passage, the `cold` front will struggle to lower temperatures to normal. Temperatures will again climb into the 80s in most areas Wednesday. Cooler temperatures in Buffalo will be due to the increasing southwesterly flow which will enhance the lake breeze, but even so the airport will probably reach the 80 degree mark. Temperatures will gradually cool Wednesday evening with lows in the 50s Wednesday night, which is still several degrees above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our stretch of summer-like weather comes to an end on Thursday behind a cold front. Temperatures are forecast to fall back to more typical levels for this new Fall season lasting through next weekend. The front is forecast to be east of western and north- central NY by Thursday morning and is what will help to steer Hurricane Maria away from the East Coast. A ridge of high pressure will shift over our region with any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario coming to an end leaving dry and much cooler conditons settling in through the day. A much sharper longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front is shown in the models to drop across our region Friday or Friday night. This will bring a chance of rain showers and another shot of cold air advection. 00Z guidance has trended a bit stronger with this shortwave, supporting slightly higher chances for showers and slightly cooler temperatures behind the front. 850mb temps could drop to or a few degrees below zero C Friday night or Saturday night with a north to northwesterly flow over the lakes. Expect this airmass to contribute to some lake enhancement behind the cold front with a chance of showers south of the lakes Friday night into Saturday. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 60s throughout the period, except Saturday which will be a bit cooler with highs around 60. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, with the typically cooler interior valleys and North Country dipping into the 30s Saturday night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain over the area through the TAF period. Expect typical river valley fog across the western Southern Tier through mid morning with local IFR. Some of this will impact KJHW for a few hours before sunrise. Elsewhere expect patchy, generally lighter fog through early this morning. This will produce some areas of MVFR to IFR VSBY across the region, mainly impacting the KIAG and KART TAFs. The fog will dissipate by 13Z-14Z, leaving VFR to prevail with nothing more than some thin high cirrus, and perhaps some diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier during the afternoon. Mainly clear skies and light winds will again allow fog to develop late tonight with patchy MVFR to IFR VSBY across much of the region, and more concentrated IFR fog in the river valleys of the western Southern Tier. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR - except local IFR/MVFR conditions in Southern Tier valley fog during the morning. Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and again on Friday. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing. A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario late Wednesday through Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...APFFEL/TMA LONG TERM...APFFEL/SMITH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.