Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 080251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. BULK OF ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE COAST...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER IMPULSES...OR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE. RIDGING ALOFT WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE
MODELS SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FOG. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE OGB WHERE THE ADDED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEY AND RECENT RAIN MAY HELP SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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