Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
124 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Near record temperatures will continue through the end of the
week. High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and
moist air into region through Saturday. A cold front will cross
the area Sunday into Monday bringing a high chance of showers.
Temperatures will remain above normal next week.


Another mild night expected with little change in the airmass
and upper ridge in place as well as surface high offshore
continuing to circulate warm and moist air into the region.
Stratus/fog expected to redevelop overnight with lows in the
60s. Confidence is a little lower in temps tonight though given
some uncertainty in the overall coverage of low clouds and
areas that do not get the clouds may radiate a bit better
resulting in cooler overnight lows and potentially more fog


An upper ridge will remain over the region on Friday with
surface high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. This
will promote another unseasonably warm day across the area.
High temperatures are forecast in the lower 80s. The upper ridge
will weaken some on Saturday and high pressure will begin to
retreat eastward a bit. Moisture will deepen some across the
area on Saturday and into Saturday night promoting a slight
chance of rain. Above normal temperatures expected once again on
Saturday with highs in the lower 80s. Overnight temperatures
will also be mild both Friday and Saturday nights, in the lower
60s. Patchy fog is expected to develop early Saturday morning,
although the low level jet is forecast to be stronger than
Friday morning.


Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes region will shift into
Canada on Sunday bringing a cold front into the forecast area.
Southwesterly flow will bring deep moisture into the area with
increasing chances of rain through the day Sunday and into
Monday. The best chance for rain appears to be Sunday night
through Monday evening so have continued with likely pops. The
front is expected to be off the coast by late Monday night with
high pressure building back into the area. The ECMWF is a
little slower moving the front through the area than the GFS.
Tuesday is expected to be dry with high pressure over the area.
High pressure will move off the coast on Wednesday with
moisture and the chance of rain returning to the forecast area.
Unsettled conditions will continue through the end of the work
week. Temperatures through the period will remain above normal.


Restrictions expected from early through late morning with VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period.

High pressure will remain offshore with southerly flow
persisting through the TAF period. Low level jet currently
around 30 knots will persist overnight with surface obs showing
winds between 3 and 6 knots continuing. As such have adjusted
cigs down slightly into IFR range and improved vsbys to MVFR or
better through mid morning. Stratus and fog which develop will
erode through the morning hours with cumulus developing through
the afternoon hours. Showers are possible along the
coast...however no rain is expected at the terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Little change through Sunday morning
with late night/morning CIG/VSBY restrictions. Chance of showers and
associated restrictions Sunday afternoon through Monday.


This afternoon, Thur, Feb 22nd, a daily record high of 83
degrees was set at Columbia SC (CAE). The daily record high of
83 degrees was tied at Augusta GA (AGS).

Also, CAE may still be able to establish a daily record for
the highest daily minimum temperatures for Feb 22.  AGS has already
fallen below their minimum.

For CAE...

Date, Record highWarmest low,
2/22, Broken with 83, old record 81 (2011)58 (2017)
2/23, 82 (1962)63 (1909)

For AGS...

Date, Record highWarmest low,
2/22, Tied at 83 (2011)64 (1897)
2/23, 82 (2012)63 (1909)




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