Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221951
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
251 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Decreasing cloudiness this afternoon as drier air works into
the region behind a weak back door front. A series of low
pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico NE across
Florida and offshore the Carolinas late Thursday through Friday
night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance
of light rain, mainly southern and eastern areas. A dry cold
front will cross the region Saturday night, with high pressure
building into the region behind it through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mean upper trough axis will remain west of the forecast area
through tonight. Surface low pressure off the North Carolina
Coast will push further northeastward this afternoon. Surface
high pressure will continue ridging into the area from the
west with another area of low pressure developing along the
eastern Gulf. Have continued to indicate a dry forecast through
tonight as the deeper moisture and isentropic lift will remain
south of the area. Overnight lows in the middle 30s to middle
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico will
develop low pressure along a remnant frontal boundary. The low
will track NE across FL through Friday night and likely remain
off the eastern coastline. Although the deterministic GFS and
ECMWF keep the area dry, there is considerable spread in the
ensemble forecasts for the southern and eastern forecast area.
Suggesting there is a slight chance for rain in these areas both
Thursday and Friday. The NAM appears too aggressive in
developing the low resulting in widespread rain across the
entire area.

There will be more clouds Thursday than previous days
contributing to cooler daytime temperatures. Expect highs in
the mid to upper 50s on Thursday and around 60 degrees Friday.
The drier air that will move into the FA will also support
cooler than normal nighttime temperatures, especially in the
northern FA where there will be less cloud cover. Temperatures
Thursday night will be from the lower 30s to the north to around
40 degrees in the southern FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another upper level trough will dig into the Southeast Saturday
bringing a cold front with limited moisture through the region.
High pressure and drier air will work its way into the region
behind the front and will be over the mid-Atlantic on Monday.
The coolest temperatures will be on Monday and Tuesday morning.
High pressure will begin to move off the coastline Tuesday as
southerly flow develops. This will lead to temperatures warming
to above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF period.

Restrictions have finally improved at all of the terminals this
afternoon with continued VFR conditions expected throughout the
period. High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
west and a relatively dry air mass should keep the forecast
dry. The deeper moisture appears to stay south and east of the
terminals. No restrictions in fog expected early Thursday with
a drier air mass in place and 25 knot low level jet keeping the
boundary layer mixed.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A frontal zone near the coast with a
series of low pressure centers moving northeastward may help support
MVFR or IFR conditions at times Friday but confidence is low at
this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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