Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 281044
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
644 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
A cold front will slowly push into the area through tonight.
Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the
week and over the weekend with little rain chances.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main cold frontal boundary currently near the mountains, with a
possible ill defined surface trough near the Upstate or Piedmont.
Convection continues across our northern Forecast Area (FA) possibly
along the trough or outflow boundary from previous convection. Will
expect this activity to gradually dissipate late tonight/early
Upper level closed low over the Great Lakes region will slip
slowly south into the Midwest, providing a SW flow aloft over our FA.
Aforementioned surface trough/front will progress only very slowly
through our FA today and tonight, due to the SW nearly parallel flow
aloft. Though significant upper energy lacking, daytime heating and
sufficient atmospheric moisture, along with any possible low
level convergence near the surface boundary is expected to provide
scattered showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. Moderate
instabilities, some mid level dry air, along with some increase in
low to mid level winds/shear, to provide potential that a few of
the stronger cells could reach severe limits.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will meander over the Ohio Valley. Surface boundary will
slowly shift towards the coast Thursday, with drier air moving into
most of the FA, though still some slight chance of showers or a
possible thunderstorm Thursday mainly E FA. Reinforcing surge of
drier and cooler air progged to roll in Thursday night and Friday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather with little overall change expected. Upper closed low
will shift slowly north into the Great Lakes region, eventually
ejecting to the NE by early next week. Dry air will remain over our
FA, with surface high pressure shifting into the eastern seaboard
early next week. Will be monitoring a possible tropical cyclone,
possibly developing and moving west into the Caribbean. It is too
early to speculate on any impacts for our FA next week.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Earlier convection has dissipated generally VFR conditions across
the region with the exception of OGB which developed some IFR
vsbys in fog with LIFR ceilings. These restrictions should improve
by 14z as winds pick up from the southwest and mixing commences.
Expect another afternoon of scattered convection with surface
front approaching from the west and cooling mid level temperatures
although timing and location of initiation is uncertain so will
include vicinity showers after 20-21z. Uncertainty regarding how
long into the overnight hours showers may linger but reasonable
confidence that fog prone locations AGS/OGB will again experience
some restrictions after 08z tonight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to