Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 112028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
428 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSE WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT BISECTING SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGHEST PWAT (~2.00 INCHES)
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A SECONDARY MAX ACROSS THE CSRA.
LOW CLOUDINESS SLOWLY ERODING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS SOUTH
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH.

CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CSRA WITH LI VALUES AROUND -5C TO -6C WITH WEAK WIND
SHEAR. DRY AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO
AID A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN CLOUDINESS IN
THE EAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 WEST TO MID
80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY HOT AND DRY BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
INCREASING ON MONDAY AS GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E CONUS. SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER FOR THU/FRI. GFS LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK FOR NOW. OTHER
QUESTIONS IS HOW COOL WILL THE TEMPERATURES BE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 80S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AGS...DNL AND OGB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL
DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. USED THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND
FORECASTED IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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