Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 111440 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 940 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along with cold and dry air will remain in control of the region today as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the area late Tuesday morning with gusty winds and additional cold air moving in behind the front. High pressure will build back into the region for Wednesday and Thursday with unsettled weather for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will maintain control of the region keeping cold and dry air in place through tonight. Winds today will be southwesterly at 8 mph or less which will allow temperatures to warm several degrees from yesterday. Expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the mid 50s over the northern and central Midlands to the upper 50s in the southern Midlands and CSRA. Winds tonight will remain southwesterly as a cold front approaches from the northwest with speeds between 5 and 10 mph. This will disrupt the radiational cooling conditions resulting in overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry cold front will quickly approach early Tuesday morning and cross the forecast area between late morning and early afternoon. Model soundings indicate pwat values will remain below one half inch with fropa so no chance of any precip with only some increased clouds. Winds will rapidly increase with the front becoming westerly between 10 and 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph by midday. Winds will be an issue Tuesday night over area lakes as cold air advection over the warmer lake waters will keep winds strong and gusty overnight. Will continue to monitor for potential for a lake wind advisory Tuesday night. High pressure will build back into the region for Wednesday and Wednesday night along with cold and dry air and subsiding winds. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday afternoon with low to mid 40s for Wednesday afternoon with overnight lows in the mid 20s to around 30 each night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in control of the region Thursday into early Friday with another front moving through the area Friday afternoon. Models continue to have differences with this system with the GFS being faster with more moisture, and the ECMWF is slower and keeps much of the moisture south of the area. Both models build dry high pressure into the region for Saturday into Sunday morning with the GFS bringing another system into the forecast for Sunday, while the ECMWF is keeping the system disorganized and dry. With the model differences and run to run changes, confidence remains low during the long term so have made only minor adjustments to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will be below normal Thursday through Saturday with near normal Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence for VFR through the period. A dry air mass remains over the region. There is a Piedmont trough with a ridge centered over the Gulf coast region. Winds will be west-southwest 5 to 10 knots through the day. High clouds are possible late tonight ahead of approaching cold front, and fog is not forecast due to a strong low-level jet possibly above 30 kts. Low-level wind shear is expected after 06z, and gusty surface winds are likely with and behind frontal passage late morning Tuesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No aviation restrictions expected through Friday. However, cold front on Tuesday will cause wind shear, and surface wind gusts around 25 mph. Gusts winds could continue through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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