Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 011735 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT AGS...OGB...AND CAE. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR THROUGH AROUND 9-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR AFTER 13Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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