Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 290611 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN. UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99

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