Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 220202 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1002 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR. THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING BRINGING A FEW STRATO-CU TO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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