Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 290240 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1040 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CELLS REMAINING IN CENTRAL NC AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GA. OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND REMAIN ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW 0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$

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