Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KCAE 020635 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. FRONT NEAR THE COAST...WITH WEAK WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE NORTHWARD SOME TODAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA CLOSER TO FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. SEVERE CONVECTION THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF AREAS SEE SOME CLEARING WHICH IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. FORECAST WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WHILE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL WEAK STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT AS WELL AS TRAINING OF STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE POPS TRENDING DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY N AND W...BUT STILL FAIRLY HIGH S AND E. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES OR GREATER MONDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.70 INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE MONDAY...DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH TUESDAY...AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z-15Z THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE COAST BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE INLAND ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT. GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING INTO LIFR RANGE DURING THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. WINDS STAYING UP A BIT TONIGHT MAY PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH BUT THAT IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR BY 20Z. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IT WOULD APPEAR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS FORECAST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUN/MON AND ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .HYDROLOGY... RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAIN UPSTREAM...IN ADDITION TO ANY RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.