Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 301850 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A broad upper trough over the MS River Valley will slowly shift east into the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. Precipitable water around 2.0 inches with weak to moderate instability over the forecast area. A series of weak short waves is forecast to cross the area this afternoon into the evening. Meso-analysis indicated a surface trough across the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Piedmont and CSRA. Scattered convection should continue to move east across the Midlands through this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat remains low with main potential this evening from damaging wind gusts. Expect thunderstorm coverage to diminish with sunset...however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight. Afternoon highs will be in mid 90s to around 100 degrees with heat index readings in the 103 to 107 range. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level trough will continue to shift eastward through Monday as a weak surface boundary approaches from the north. Moderate instability and multiple disturbances moving through the upper trough support and increasing chance for thunderstorms. Scattered convection is expected Sunday afternoon in a moist, moderately unstable airmass. Lingering upper level ridging and lack of a strong forcing mechanism at the surface should keep any convection scattered. Although mid-level temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days, the threat for severe storms is low. A skinny area of positive buoyancy in the forecast soundings suggest pulse type thunderstorms with weak updrafts. Models do show an upper level shortwave moving through the area Sunday afternoon/evening which may help promote development. The GFS indicates the potential for a sea-breeze to move inland triggering additional convection Sunday evening. The shortwave may allow for storms to linger overnight. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows in to mid 70s. Monday, as the upper trough amplifies and moves further east, the associated surface boundary will enter the region. Convergence ahead of the boundary will allow for thunderstorms to develop in the forecast area. 500 mb temperatures around -8 degrees will be more conducive for strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Given the cooling mid-levels and a higher confidence in thunderstorm coverage than previous days, highs should be in the low to mid- 90s. Cannot rule out the chance for thunderstorms into the night with models indicating the possibility of multiple shortwaves moving through the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper level trough will remain over the eastern US in the mid-term with ridging moving back over the area towards the end of the period. A surface trough may linger in the region through the week keeping the chance for thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above normal during the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected outside of scattered...mainly diurnal... convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vcnty of DNL/AGS at 17Z expected to continue developing east to affect the Midlands TAF sites this afternoon into the evening. Convection should diminish with sunset. Southwest winds around 10 knots will also diminish with sunset. Cannot completely rule out isolated convection overnight given moist and unstable atmosphere. However...showers and thunderstorms will once again increase in coverage Sunday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in afternoon and evening convection each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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