Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 311912 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 212 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE POPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. MODELS REMAIN CLOSE ON A MONDAY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE GOOD DRYING KICKS IN BY THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER ISSUE ON MONDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE STRONGER WINDS. MODELS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FROM LATE MORNING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORES. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALSO DURING THAT TIME AS RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SOME UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND MOISTURE DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE US ONE MORE DRY DAY. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BRINGS A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAINFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE CWA DRY. WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE IS A RISK OF POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE DRYING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTENING AT LOW LEVELS. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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