Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 240532 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1232 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast Friday. A cold front approaching from the northwest will move through the forecast area Saturday. Little moisture will be associated with the front but it will be breezy. Dry high pressure will dominate early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more dominate in the forecast area. The main forecast concern tonight is the fog potential. There should be lingering low- level moisture associated with the onshore flow. The models indicate less boundary layer wind compared to the previous night and aloft it should be drier associated with the upper ridging. Mode guidance continues to indicate fog. There may be a period of dense fog during the early morning hours. The temperature guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday...A ridge aloft will build over the Southeastern states on Friday with weak surface high pressure ridging into the forecast area from the southwest. A low pressure system over the Midwest will shift northeast on Friday with an associated cold front moving through the Mississippi River Valley. Model forecast soundings show warm air advection across the area ahead of the approaching system. Dry and warm weather is expected under mostly sunny skies. Daily records may be reached or exceeded at CAE and AGS. The daily record for Friday at CAE is 81 degrees and for AGS is 82 degrees, both set in 1985. Lows Saturday morning in the middle 50s. Saturday...A cold front will move into the forecast area Saturday morning and quickly shift east. 12Z models continue to place the deepest moisture well north of the forecast area so have indicated only slight chance pops north Saturday morning and dry conditions Saturday afternoon. Tight pressure gradient behind the front will promote breezy conditions with 15 to 20 mph sustained surface winds and gusts to 25 mph. A lake wind advisory may be required. Above normal high temperatures expected once again on Saturday although a few degrees cooler than Friday, with highs in the lower 70s west to upper 70s east. Near normal low temperatures in the wake of the front on Sunday morning, in the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift east over the forecast area on Sunday and slip off the coast Sunday evening. Mostly sunny skies on Sunday with near normal temperatures, in the lower to middle 60s. Unsettled weather is expected Monday and Tuesday associated with the next low pressure system so have continued with slight chance/chance pops although models still differ on the timing and amount of available moisture. A cold front is expected to move into the area late Wednesday and shift east of the area Thursday bringing another chance for showers. Above normal temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main concern is periods of fog around daybreak this morning. Ridging will remain across the area overnight. Weak low-level onshore flow will continue to bring some Atlantic moisture into the region. The main forecast concern tonight will be fog potential. The models indicate weaker boundary layer winds tonight. Most of the models indicate a period of mvfr/ifr fog towards morning, with the possibility of low stratus also developing. Confidence remains low at this time, and have only mentioned the lower conditions in a tempo group for now at all sites. Heating and mixing should result in a return to VFR conditions by 15z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front with limited moisture will bring breezy conditions Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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