Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 050332 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING. HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S. STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS. MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN. WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR 06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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