Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 271745 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 145 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE MIDLANDS/PEE DEE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SUN INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG IN THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE CUT TODAYS AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAISED THE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY....WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA). MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE AND OLD SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING WITH MOISTURE INCREASE...AND MAINLY RELEGATING BEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND W FA...AND MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE N FA...AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY. SO...WILL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS. EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT TO A LOW END HURRICANE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT DRIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NE THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINITES REGARDING IMPACT FOR OUR FA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH 22Z THEN BECOMING VFR. EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PERSISTANT LEVEL MOISTURE AND NIGHTTIME COOLING. WINDS WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT SO SOME FOG IN THE CSRA AND EAST CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS TIL 14Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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