Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 241455 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1055 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE AND OBS ALREADY SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING AND EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. STAYED WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 77

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