Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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131 FXUS62 KCAE 281653 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1253 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical depression two is currently about 200 miles south southeast of Charleston and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Strengthening to a tropical storm is expected tonight with the storm reaching the Charleston coast Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon the storm is expected to to northeasterly and move very slowly along the coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances of rain will increase over the area through Sunday the lower for Monday and Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tropical depression 2 remains well offshore with satellite imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side. Area WSR-88D network shows showers beginning to reach the coast with a few isolated showers reaching the eastern Midlands. Winds currently across the area are 5 to 8 mph with winds along the coast around 10 mph. Expect clouds to continue increasing and thickening over the next couple of hours with showers moving into the eastern Midlands and showers expanding into the central Midlands early this evening and the western Midlands late this evening. Although there is potential for thunderstorms currently coverage remains limited so will remain with slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds overnight will accelerate slowly with the eastern Midlands seeing around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph by daybreak Sunday and lower speeds elsewhere. Main concern overnight will be potential for locally heavy rain...however with highest moistures not arriving until late in the period do not expect any flooding issues overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... By this evening high pressure will have weakened and moved farther offshore. This will allow Tropical depression two to continue on a steady track to the northwest and approaching the coast by late tonight. Dewpoints and PW values will continue to increase across the cwa through the period. Models indicate a plume of 1.5 inches to nearly 2.0 inches will move northwest and northward across the Midlands...especially the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee region later today and into tonight and Sunday. Morning radar composite shows just a few isolated showers along the coast of the Low country...with additional scattered showers offshore. As TD #2 moves closer to the region have a gradual increase in pops from the east/southeast to the northwest and north today into Sunday. Shower and thunderstorms activity will increase through the afternoon as system gets closer and airmass become more unstable during the afternoon/evening. Will continue with the trend of the highest pops across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee Region with lower chances across the CSRA and western Midlands. WPC has an area with a slight chance for excessive rainfall near the eastern Midlands along the i-95 corridor. TD#2 will be a slow mover along the Carolina coast as the forecast projects it to be offshore and east of Myrtle Beach by Monday night. Conditions will be slow to improve through the period. Guidance looks good and stayed closer to a consensus of the numbers for daily highs and lows. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much uncertainty in the longer term forecast period, especially initially with the slow progress of TD#2. However, models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough moving from west to east toward the end of next week into the weekend. At this time will keep an isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through this evening with MVFR for much of tonight. Tropical depression 2 continues to approach the SC coast and will be just off the CHS coast by daybreak Sunday. Clouds associated with a large area of convection on the northwest side of the storm continue to move onshore and will move into the taf sites over the next several hours. Due to the isolated nature of thunderstorms associated with the system have remained without mention of thunder in the tafs. Main concern through the period will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall...with the greatest chance of heavy rain toward daybreak Sunday. Winds will be easterly at 8 knots or less through the day...then back to northerly overnight with speeds remaining 5 to 8 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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