Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 271042 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 642 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA (FA). EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRIER COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NE FA. OBS AND TRENDS SUGGEST DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WX GRIDS THRU 13Z. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FAIR WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. SOME UPPER ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIP APPROACHING THE WEST FA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY...BUT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE LONGER FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST PRECIP WEST OF OUR FA UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 00Z WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED/WED NT INTO THU. WEAK IN SITU WEDGE AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAINFALL AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. TRENDED LOWER ON MAX TEMPS WED...AND TRENDED HIGHER ON POPS WED/WED NT AS WELL DUE TO APPEARANCE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY JUST TO OUR N/NE MAY RESULT IN CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY 16Z OR SO. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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