Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 300642 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 242 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push through later this morning. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. A gradual moisture increase possible next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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This morning: Cold front continues pushing eastward with drier air pushing into the Midlands from the west. Regional radar showing some scattered shower developing along a 925mb convergence boundary north of Columbia. Expect these showers to continue shift northward over the new few hours. Overall limited cloud cover and drier air over the region will provide strong radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Today: A closed upper low over the Ohio Valley will slowly move northward today. The cold front should continue to push eastward across the area. Dry air will build in from the west with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s over the western portions of the area to around 60 in the eastern Pee Dee by this afternoon. At this time, not expecting much in the way of any precipitation after sunrise. Daytime highs will be mostly in the lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift slowly to the northeast during the period. Expect mild afternoon temperatures and seasonably cool nights. Highs Saturday will be mostly in the lower to middle 80s, with overnight lows tonight dipping into middle to upper 50s, and in the upper 50s to the lower 60s Saturday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper closed low will shift east towards New England, while surface high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. Some premise for low level moisture recovery with possible low level flow off the Atlantic developing. Accepted model blend of slight chance pops, mainly over the extreme eastern counties. Will be monitoring Hurricane Matthew currently forecast to move west through the Caribbean, then turn to the north. It is still too early to speculate on any impacts for our area next week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 24 hr TAF period. Cold front has pushed east of the terminals although a 925mb convergence boundary extending from near CLT to CAE has resulted in scattered shower development. Will include VCSH at CAE/CUB without restrictions through 08z to handle this while the remainder of the terminals should be rain free. Some patchy stratocumulus clouds around OGB at issuance time led me to include a brief tempo group for MVFR cigs there. Otherwise the dry air advecting into the region will preclude fog development through the predawn hours. Winds generally light and variable becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots by 16Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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