Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 210611 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 211 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LEAD TO HOTTER HIGH TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THOSE STORMS TO STAY EITHER WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR CYCLE. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS AND A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AND CONTINUE TO INDICATES DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES TO NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110F. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...AND FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LEADING TO AND HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION/HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FA. SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT. MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH IT OF LATE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR FA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING POPS/THUNDER CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF IT. FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/OGB. CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA AND WILL WORK TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAVE DECREASED THE FOG THREAT AT CAE/CUB/DNL TO A TEMPO GROUP WHILE MAINTAINING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB. FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH SUNRISE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD VFR. CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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