Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 231738 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1238 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW. TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030. GA...NONE. && $$

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