Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 170531 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020- 021. GA...NONE. && $$

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