Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 250423 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1223 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. There is a slight chance of showers late in the week associated with a fast moving system forecast to move through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... A dry air mass remains across the forecast area with just some high thin clouds ahead of the shortwave trough in the southern stream over east Texas. The cold front was pushing into the central Midlands at midnight and will move south of the CSRA around 200 am. The front will move through the region dry. Increased mixing over the relatively warm lakes will result in breezy conditions. The HRRR suggested wind close but just below lake wind advisory criteria especially on Lake Marion. Mixing in the boundary layer again tonight will limit net radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows similar to last night. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. A cool and dry air mass will build into the region. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. Overnight lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the north Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday. A surface low over the Great Lakes region early Thursday morning will shift northeastward toward New England. This system will bring a weak cold front across the area Thursday night/early Friday. Moisture will be limited throughout the period, so continued with a dry forecast except during the Thursday/Friday time frame maintained a slight chance. More dry high pressure will build in from the west late Friday into Saturday, with another dry cold front moving into the area Saturday night/Sunday. More high pressure will build in from the north Monday. Seasonable or above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the period. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A dry cold front will cross the TAF sites through 07Z. Intermittent IFR vsbys in fog is possible at AGS/OGB until the cold front moves through around 06z. Behind the front winds will become N/NE around 5 kts. Models indicate 30-35 knot NE winds above the surface, around 1000 to 2000 ft. LLWS is possible 06Z-12Z...although confidence is low at this time. LLWS may need to be added to the TAFs if surface winds go calm later tonight. Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue through the TAF period. Expect NE winds from 5 to 10 kts throughout the day Tuesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.