Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KCAE 281653
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1253 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Tropical depression two is currently about 200 miles south
southeast of Charleston and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.
Strengthening to a tropical storm is expected tonight with the
storm reaching the Charleston coast Sunday morning. Sunday
afternoon the storm is expected to to northeasterly and move very
slowly along the coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances of rain will
increase over the area through Sunday the lower for Monday and
Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall through
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical depression 2 remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Area WSR-88D network shows showers beginning to reach the coast
with a few isolated showers reaching the eastern Midlands. Winds
currently across the area are 5 to 8 mph with winds along the
coast around 10 mph. Expect clouds to continue increasing and
thickening over the next couple of hours with showers moving into
the eastern Midlands and showers expanding into the central
Midlands early this evening and the western Midlands late this
evening. Although there is potential for thunderstorms currently
coverage remains limited so will remain with slight chance of
thunderstorms. Winds overnight will accelerate slowly with the
eastern Midlands seeing around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph by
daybreak Sunday and lower speeds elsewhere. Main concern overnight
will be potential for locally heavy rain...however with highest
moistures not arriving until late in the period do not expect any
flooding issues overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain
on track for the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the
middle to upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By this evening high pressure will have weakened and moved farther
offshore. This will allow Tropical depression two to continue on a
steady track to the northwest and approaching the coast by late
tonight. Dewpoints and PW values will continue to increase across
the cwa through the period. Models indicate a plume of 1.5 inches
to nearly 2.0 inches will move northwest and northward across the
Midlands...especially the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee region
later today and into tonight and Sunday. Morning radar composite
shows just a few isolated showers along the coast of the
Low country...with additional scattered showers offshore. As TD
#2 moves closer to the region have a gradual increase in pops from
the east/southeast to the northwest and north today into Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorms activity will increase through the
afternoon as system gets closer and airmass become more unstable
during the afternoon/evening. Will continue with the trend of the
highest pops across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee Region with
lower chances across the CSRA and western Midlands. WPC has an
area with a slight chance for excessive rainfall near the eastern
Midlands along the i-95 corridor. TD#2 will be a slow mover along
the Carolina coast as the forecast projects it to be offshore and
east of Myrtle Beach by Monday night. Conditions will be slow to
improve through the period.
Guidance looks good and stayed closer to a consensus of the
numbers for daily highs and lows.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much uncertainty in the longer term forecast period, especially
initially with the slow progress of TD#2. However, models have
come into a little better agreement on a deep trough moving from
west to east toward the end of next week into the weekend. At this
time will keep an isolated to scattered afternoon shower and
thunderstorm through much of next week. Have stayed close to
current forecast which is for temperatures to remain generally at
or slightly above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening with MVFR for much of
Tropical depression 2 continues to approach the SC coast and will
be just off the CHS coast by daybreak Sunday. Clouds associated
with a large area of convection on the northwest side of the storm
continue to move onshore and will move into the taf sites over
the next several hours. Due to the isolated nature of
thunderstorms associated with the system have remained without
mention of thunder in the tafs. Main concern through the period
will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall...with the
greatest chance of heavy rain toward daybreak Sunday. Winds will
be easterly at 8 knots or less through the day...then back to
northerly overnight with speeds remaining 5 to 8 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.