Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 261323 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 923 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast. A moisture limited cold front will move through the area late thursday...then stall just south of the area over the weekend. Above normal temperatures will cool for the end of the week behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry weather and above normal temperatures expected this afternoon. Maria...located about 200 miles off the NC coast...will continue moving northward. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. Some wrap-around stratocumulus and cirrus will affect mainly the Pee Dee region and eastern Midlands. Do not expect showers with just shallow moisture and relatively warm mid-level temperatures. H5 temperatures about -5 C will continue above normal temperatures today. Should see afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows tonight in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It should remain warm and dry. Maria will be lifting northeastward slowly and farther away from the forecast area. An approaching cold front should be nearing the area late Thursday. Little moisture or convergence will occur ahead of the front because of the northerly flow into the forecast area on the periphery of Maria. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS had pops less than 20 percent. Followed the higher temperature guidance because of the warm air mass with h5 temperatures around -4 C. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The moisture limited cold front will be in the area Thursday night. The front may linger in the area with some moisture recovery mainly in the south section Friday. There should also be some cooling aloft ahead of upper troughing. Forecasted a small thunderstorm chance mainly in the south section Friday. Saturday through Monday may be drier behind the front but a tight moisture gradient just to the south adds uncertainty to the forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance had a high spread and indicated pops 5 to 50 percent. We forecasted a pop close to the mean of 10 percent north to 20 percent south. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence for VFR conditions through this evening. Dry air mass will remain over the TAF sites. Hurricane Maria will slowly move northward off the NC coast with high pressure will extending from the OH Valley through the TN Valley to the Gulf coast. Other than high level clouds from Maria, will see diurnal cumulus with bases above 3000 feet. Northerly winds 6 to 10 knots during the daylight hours becoming light tonight. Could see occasional gusts around 15 knots this afternoon. Models show potential for restrictions in fog/stratus early Wednesday morning given mostly clear skies and light winds. Confidence is too low to include in current issuance, but will continue to monitor the threat. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected Wednesday through Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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