Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 202342 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 742 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF GA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS MOSTLY CLEAR. SHOWERS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AND EXPECT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY. UPPER CUT OFF LOW AND SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...AND SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WITH NO LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF TAP PROVIDES LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO OUR NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY S FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT DURING TIME OF BEST DIURNAL HEATING. BLENDED A VARIETY OF MODEL SOURCES FOR POP GRIDS USING LOCAL TOOL...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MON NT. LAST SUB 60 READING AT COLUMBIA WAS 57 ON JUNE 2. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH LEAVING BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE E GOMEX...WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. SURFACE HIGH CENTER TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AFTER 12Z. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND BY 02Z WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN INCREASE TO WESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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