Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 131957 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 257 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK REINFORCING BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 40S UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN MOVING CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP LOW DEEPEN AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A COMPLEX SITUATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE LOW BEGINS PUSHING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE MERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION...HOWEVER SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN MAINLY SURROUNDING TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED WITH SOME QUESTIONS STILL SURROUNDING TIMING...TEMPERATURE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO BEGIN THE EVENT...THEN AS MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY EXPECT MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AN SOUTH OF I-20 WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...SNOW NORTH OF I-20. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MID MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBIA AND BY NOON ALONG THE NC BORDER. THIS WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE NC LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CSRA. GROUND TEMPERATURES ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AND WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WHICH ACCUMULATES TO QUICKLY MELT. LOW WILL CONTINUE MARCHING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALL RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE RAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAINING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH A SECONDARY LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DROP A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL DRYING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SECONDARY DRY FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 15000KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS BY 14Z SUNDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$

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