Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 231035 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 635 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures and fair weather expected through Friday as high pressure settles into the region. Warming temperatures and increasing moisture expected this weekend as a storm system moves from the Midwest toward the Ohio valley. This will result above normal temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface ridge centered to the north across the Middle Atlantic region extending into the Carolinas. Upper ridge to the west and resulting northwest flow aloft. Air mass dry with dew points in the mid 20s. Cold advection today should result in temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Models suggest some low clouds at times this afternoon trapped under subsidence inversion. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some potential for frost late tonight and early Friday morning as low level moisture may increase slightly due to weak isentropic lift...although strongest moisture flux in the Upstate region or north Georgia. Radiational cooling is possible if cloudiness is limited. Coolest region expected to be in the Pee Dee. Stayed close to mos guidance which has mid 30s north of Columbia. The high will begin to slowly weaken and shift slightly east Friday, providing some moderation in temps/dewpoints. Upper ridge over the area and strong subsidence expected. Temperatures should warm back into the low 70s. Weak isentropic lift and moisture recovery may provide some stratus, possible fog, late Fri nt/Sat morning. Deep low in the Midwest will be moving slowly east-northeast Saturday. Moisture continues to increase Saturday with upper ridge weakening and shifting southeast...but lift mainly west of the region and expect any showers to remain west of the region through the afternoon. Continued warming trend with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Closed upper low to shift NE from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, with upper trough axis approaching our region Sat nt and moving through Sunday. Best upper dynamics to remain to our north, but chance pops with possible thunderstorms expected in weakly unstable air mass. Another upper trough/front appears will move through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions through the TAF period. Dry high pressure will ridge over the area today and tonight. Expect NE-E winds generally around 7 to 10 kts today. Some high clouds will continue to stream across the area. Some patchy fog may be possible early Friday morning as the high pressure moves offshore and provides a more easterly flow from the Atlantic, but confidence is low at this time and will not mention in the TAFs. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Saturday and Sunday mornings in fog and stratus associated with an onshore flow. Deeper moisture and a frontal system near the area may help support scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Sunday.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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