Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KCAE 260601 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030. GA...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.