Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KCAE 240532
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1232 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017
Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off
the Southeast Coast Friday. A cold front approaching from the
northwest will move through the forecast area Saturday. Little
moisture will be associated with the front but it will be
breezy. Dry high pressure will dominate early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther
off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more
dominate in the forecast area. The main forecast concern
tonight is the fog potential. There should be lingering low-
level moisture associated with the onshore flow. The models
indicate less boundary layer wind compared to the previous night
and aloft it should be drier associated with the upper ridging.
Mode guidance continues to indicate fog. There may be a period
of dense fog during the early morning hours. The temperature
guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 50s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...A ridge aloft will build over the Southeastern states
on Friday with weak surface high pressure ridging into the
forecast area from the southwest. A low pressure system over
the Midwest will shift northeast on Friday with an associated
cold front moving through the Mississippi River Valley. Model
forecast soundings show warm air advection across the area ahead
of the approaching system. Dry and warm weather is expected
under mostly sunny skies. Daily records may be reached or
exceeded at CAE and AGS. The daily record for Friday at CAE is
81 degrees and for AGS is 82 degrees, both set in 1985. Lows
Saturday morning in the middle 50s.
Saturday...A cold front will move into the forecast area
Saturday morning and quickly shift east. 12Z models continue to
place the deepest moisture well north of the forecast area so
have indicated only slight chance pops north Saturday morning
and dry conditions Saturday afternoon. Tight pressure gradient
behind the front will promote breezy conditions with 15 to 20
mph sustained surface winds and gusts to 25 mph. A lake wind
advisory may be required. Above normal high temperatures
expected once again on Saturday although a few degrees cooler
than Friday, with highs in the lower 70s west to upper 70s east.
Near normal low temperatures in the wake of the front on Sunday
morning, in the upper 30s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift east over the forecast area
on Sunday and slip off the coast Sunday evening. Mostly sunny
skies on Sunday with near normal temperatures, in the lower to
middle 60s. Unsettled weather is expected Monday and Tuesday
associated with the next low pressure system so have continued
with slight chance/chance pops although models still differ on
the timing and amount of available moisture. A cold front is
expected to move into the area late Wednesday and shift east of
the area Thursday bringing another chance for showers. Above
normal temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main concern is periods of fog around daybreak this morning.
Ridging will remain across the area overnight. Weak low-level
onshore flow will continue to bring some Atlantic moisture into
the region. The main forecast concern tonight will be fog
potential. The models indicate weaker boundary layer winds
tonight. Most of the models indicate a period of mvfr/ifr fog
towards morning, with the possibility of low stratus also
developing. Confidence remains low at this time, and have only
mentioned the lower conditions in a tempo group for now at all
sites. Heating and mixing should result in a return to VFR
conditions by 15z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front with limited moisture
will bring breezy conditions Saturday.