Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 241808 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 208 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be associated with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier. The front will remain nearly stationary near the area through next week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms by mid week with temperatures near normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Another hot day across the region as CAE is already at 100 degrees with the remainder of the region in the mid to upper 90s. Earlier cloud cover has diminished a bit allowing for better insolation and the atmosphere continues to destabilize with LI values around -6C to -8C with low level lapse rates at 8.5C/km. Radar showing a few isolated showers trying to develop along a convergence zone in the surface trough but they have struggled to push through the very warm air aloft. However, shortwave energy moving southeastward through southwest Virginia at this time will increase the large scale lift over the next few hours and expect scattered convection to blossom with some storms becoming strong to severe given the increasing instability and sufficient shear. We remain in a slight risk from SPC for mainly damaging wind threat but also to a lesser degree large hail. Downdraft CAPE values currently around 800 but are increasing and expect them to exceed 1000 to 1500 by late afternoon and evening. Current expectation is for storms to form along the trough and further northwest in central NC then move southeastward into our area and possibly forming into multicellular clusters which develop their own coldpools which will enhance the damaging wind threat. Instability likely to linger into the evening hours and expect storms to continue after sunset given the upper level support for the shortwave moving by. The surface frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic will also sink south overnight and cross the region by Saturday morning. Overnight lows will again be impacted by convective debris clouds and a mixed boundary layer. Expect lows in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The front becomes nearly stationary across the csra or southeast Midlands early Saturday. The models suggest drier air advecting south from North Carolina. A mid level cap may develop as upper level ridge builds slightly. Instability should be weaker than today and forcing mainly associated with surface convergence near front...although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south from North Carolina around ridge. Chance pops mainly near the front in the afternoon. Slight chance pops elsewhere. Temperatures slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due to cool bias. Surface ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast extending southwest across western Carolina Sunday and shallow low-level moisture remains across the area. Front appears to be more diffuse Sunday...but likely near the CSRA. Weak convergence possible associated with front and possible sea breeze. Upper level ridge and associated warm temperatures aloft should limit convection. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected and temperatures slightly above guidance in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Tuesday as upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Front remains in the area through the week. Deep moisture may develop late weak as upper level trough amplifies in the Mississippi valley late week. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day...possibly increasing late in the week with temperatures near climatology.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF forecast period though restrictions may occur in thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered convection starting to develop with daytime heating and atmospheric destabilization. Included a tempo group for showers this afternoon but did not include thunder at this time due to uncertainty given the very warm air aloft and expectation that the bulk of convection should remain north of the terminals. However if convection develops into multicellular clusters then CAE/CUB/OGB seem to be most at risk for some impacts late afternoon and evening. Otherwise southwesterly winds around 10 knots will prevail this afternoon and diminish with sunset this evening, then shift to the north around dawn Saturday as the front pushes south through the area.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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