Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 031810 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99

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