Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 222311 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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