Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 302337 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT. PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO 13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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