Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 291413 AAA AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO LANCASTER EASTWARD TOWARDS NEWPORT NC WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST 925MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM HRRR AND SPC WRF INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NC BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND LIKELY WILL MIX OUT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND PEAK IN THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC AVIATION...HC

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