Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 182329 AAA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Columbia SC 729 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will continue through at least Saturday, with a warming trend. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly Monday and Monday night, followed by much cooler temperatures for mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... It will remain dry over the forecast area with the surface ridge extending from off the Mid Atlantic Coast southwestward through the Carolinas and Georgia. Strong net radiational cooling conditions will occur tonight. Much of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM MOS and in-house radiation scheme support lows in the lower and middle 40s. Some of the COOP MOS has lows in the middle and upper 30s at the normally colder locations. Patchy frost may occur at the colder locations. We do not believe frost will be widespread enough for a frost advisory, and given very localized nature, have removed mention from the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Fair and dry. Strong upper ridge will build over the SE CONUS, while surface high pressure remains centered over the central and southern Appalachians Thursday, shifting slightly east into the Mid Atlantic Friday. The atmosphere will remain dry with precipitable water values progged 0.5 inches or less. A gradual warming trend will commence through the period as the air mass modifies and the upper ridge builds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong upper ridge will remain over the SE CONUS Saturday, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic coast, providing warm and dry conditions. The upper and surface ridges will shift to our east offshore by late Sunday ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface front. Models indicating return flow and some moisture return off the Atlantic could begin as early as Sunday afternoon/evening. Latest model runs generally bring the front through our region in the Monday to Monday night time frame, perhaps into early Tuesday. A little too early to speculate on severe potential, but will accept model consensus POPs in the good chance to likely range and will include mention of chance thunder. Both GFS and EC indicate a significantly deepening upper trough over the E CONUS behind this system, with indications of much cooler air coming in mid to late week. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to ridge into the Carolinas overnight and Thursday. Satellite imagery loop shows some higher clouds across southwest VA and western NC associated with a shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley. These clouds should remain north of the forecast area overnight with clear skies expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain light from the northeast less than 5 knots and possibly calm at AGS/OGB/CUB at times. Fog is not expected due to the dry air mass, however the warm river water near AGS could be enough to support patchy reduced vsbys at times but not including in the forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation are expected except an increase in low-level moisture in an onshore flow may lead to widespread stratus and fog Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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