Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 261822 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 222 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.25 INCHES NORTH TO 1.7 EXTREME SOUTH. WEAK NVA OVER OUR FA TODAY AS WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A GENERALLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR FA. BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE LATEST HRRR MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FA. A FEW BRIEF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE FA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...MAINLY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 75 TO 80-DEGREE RANGE. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN STORY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING SH/TSRA AT OUR TERMINALS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SINK SOUTH OR MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED TONIGHT...COULD WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION LATE TON/EARLY SUN. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RESTRICT ANY FOG MENTION TO THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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