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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 261822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1.25 INCHES NORTH TO 1.7 EXTREME SOUTH. WEAK NVA OVER OUR FA
TODAY AS WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A GENERALLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR
FA. BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE LATEST HRRR
MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FA. A FEW BRIEF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE FA...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 75 TO 80-DEGREE RANGE.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. KEPT
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE
TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING SH/TSRA AT OUR TERMINALS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SINK SOUTH OR MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED TONIGHT...COULD
WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION LATE TON/EARLY SUN. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RESTRICT ANY FOG MENTION
TO THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED
GENERALLY DRY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$