Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 301559 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1159 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA FROM THE COASTAL AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF CAE/CUB AND ALONG THE SC/GA SHORE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 30/18Z AND 31/00Z. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99

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