Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KCAE 280605
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Potential for restrictions mainly mid morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves
toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or
lower at times.
Scattered showers early this morning focused in the western
and north Midlands in area of deeper moisture and stronger
instability. At the moment...it appears the showers will not
impact the terminals...or have minimal impact. All terminals have
VFR conditions at 06z...but some MVFR fog possible mainly at AGS
and OGB toward morning and this is supported by latest LAMP
guidance. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across central SC
and east central Georgia later this morning through the afternoon.
Mid level short wave trough...strong low level convergence near
the front and moderate instability will result in showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain threat which
may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at this time.
Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z to 21z can
be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift southeast of
the area during the evening but confidence low...Second stronger
front will be northwest of the area.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.
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