Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 080542 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1242 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area Thursday. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the area Saturday. The coldest air of the season so far will be associated with this air mass. The ridge will be off the coast Sunday and temperatures will begin to moderate. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Another night of low clouds and patchy fog appears to be on tap for the area. This is due to continue trapping of moisture below a low-level inversion. Moisture should remain too shallow for showers. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough will move across the Ohio Valley Thursday pushing a cold front through the forecast area. Moisture is limited with the system, and latest guidance blends yields minimal if any POPs for our FA. It will take a little time for the denser colder air behind the front to make it over the mountains into our FA, but expecting gradual infiltration of cold dry air into our FA late Thursday through Friday. By late Friday night, the center of the Canadian continental polar high pressure air mass will build towards the southern Appalachians, staying just north of our FA. This could maintain a little wind for portions of our FA and call into question the extent of best radiational cooling conditions. However, due to cold and dry nature of the air mass, feel comfortable continuing to slightly undercut guidance min temps for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold dry high pressure to build into the Carolinas Saturday, with zonal westerly 500mb flow on Saturday with mostly clear skies should allow for slight warming compared to Friday but temperatures will remain well below normal. The next storm system will develop over the Plains states and western Ohio Valley region on Sunday as shortwave energy tracks across the midwest with a surface low developing and lifting northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Sunday evening. This will push another cold front towards the region Sunday night into Monday bringing the next chance for rain. There remain some differences among the medium range models with the timing of the front but rain will be possible Sun night into Monday. Temperatures will moderate Sunday as the surface high shifts offshore and a southerly flow returns. Some timing uncertainty with the next system that could affect our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Used guidance blend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Satellite indicating widespread stratus/strato-cu across the area with some patchy dense fog developing in the West Midlands/Piedmont region. HRRR suggesting fog may develop southeast resulting in visibility restrictions at the area Terminals. Confidence moderately high that some fog may impact terminals along with lower ceilings toward morning as stratus build down develops. IFR and MVFR conditions will be the rule during the overnight hours. Light wind expected through tonight with northwest wind around 10 knots developing Thursday morning. VFR conditions should return by around 15Z Thursday. A dry cold front will move through the region early this afternoon with decreasing clouds in the afternoon...a few gusts to 20 mph possible. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another cold front may bring precipitation and associated restrictions Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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