Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 180651 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 251 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MODELS ARE FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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