Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 020759 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 359 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE. AFTER MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS TO FOG CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA. AMENDED CAE/CUB/OGB. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS PREVENTED FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT AGS AND DNL SO FAR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99

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