Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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510 FXUS62 KCAE 081958 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 258 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK. CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ALONG SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF -SHRA 19Z-23Z...HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON OCCASION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCAL MODEL PRETTY GOOD FORECASTING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING PRECIP EAST OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...87

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