Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 241403 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1003 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area...ensuring fair weather. Generally used model consensus for most weather elements. Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 80s...with lows tonight around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The models display surface ridging extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic. The models depict a weak shortwave trough moving into the upper ridge Wednesday. A sea breeze front may move well inland. However, the models maintain just shallow moisture and suggest continued mid-level capping. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF MOS have pops less than 20 percent. The thunderstorm chance appears too low to include in the forecast. The temperature guidance was consistent. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The medium-range models displayed surface ridging from the Atlantic and upper-level ridging dominating through Friday with just shallow moisture. The GFS and ECMWF pops were less than 20 percent. The models suggest a low pressure system or sub tropical low may approach during the later part of the period adding more than normal uncertainty Saturday through Monday. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support pops around 30 percent. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area. Limited moisture will preclude shower or fog concerns. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Thursday. Some fog possible at the fog prone sites ags and ogb early Friday morning. Moisture return and associated restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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