Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 281803 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 203 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY...AND INTO REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE SC COAST. AS A RESULT...A NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE CSRA. LATEST HRRR SHOWING ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SAT/SUN WILL ALLOW UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO OUR REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN...AND MAINLY RELEGATE IT TO THE S AND W FA SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY AFTERNOON FOR THE S/W FA LOOK OK SATURDAY. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWLY NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR STILL TRYING TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MODELS INDICATE A POP GRADIENT OVER OUR FA SUNDAY WITH LOWER POPS NORTH/HIGHER POPS SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STATUS AND TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. OFFICIAL FORECASTS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO S FLORIDA BY LATE SUN...AND NORTHWARD INTO N FL/S GA VICINITY BY WED. EVEN WITHOUT THE CYCLONE IN PLAY...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE PREMISE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR FA ANYWAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSSIBLE IMPACT OF ERIKA ON OUR REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS...TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY BLENDED LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONGOING FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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