Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 281946 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE GRADUALLY RISEN THROUGH THE 40S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND NOTICEABLY LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS THIS MORNING FELL INTO THE 20S WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT COULD BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHOULD YIELD A JUMP IN TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY OR TWO WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE CSRA. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE LOW POPS. MODELS DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING COOLER BUT STILL REMAINS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS. BLENDED IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT AM PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY AND ERODES THE WEDGE...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WEDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS THIS MORNING BECAME SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONCE THE INVERSION ERODED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED. SIMILARLY SURFACE WINDS MAY PICK UP SATURDAY MORNING FROM 14 TO 17Z. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030. GA...NONE. && $$

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