Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 250756 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 356 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north Sunday and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and move east of the area midweek. The air mass behind this system will be drier and more seasonable. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A high amplitude upper-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will move slowly east today. Upper level cut-off low over the Gulf coast area. At the surface, weak high pressure remains. Upper level trough over New England with surface ridge building south along the Atlantic Seaboard will drive the cold front slowly southwest during the day into the evening. The air mass across the region will become marginally to possibly moderately unstable by this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest limited moisture...especially across the south Midlands and CSRA and a possible low level cap. Convergence along the front and upper level dynamics appear weak. High resolution models suggest most of the thunderstorm development will be across the North Midlands and Pee Dee late in the afternoon and early evening...so chance pops there and isolated elsewhere. Strong insolation again at least through mid afternoon/boundary layer temps slightly cooler than yesterday...so expect temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered convection in the evening mainly north...should decrease during the overnight hours as instability weakens. East low- level flow Monday...possibly resulting in deeper moisture. Frontal boundary stalled across the area should support mainly diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms in a weakly to moderately unstable air mass. Convection may focus near a sea breeze front in the east. Temperatures a little cooler Monday. MOS overnight minimum temperatures remain consistent.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Deep upper-level trough over the Great Lakes/ohio valley early in the period. GFS more progressive moving low toward New England than ECMWF. Cold front moving through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Drier and cooler air advecting into the region by Wednesday afternoon. Air mass appears to be trending cooler behind the front. Dry into the weekend. Overnight minimum temperatures forecast in the 50s...maximum temperatures near 80...or upper 70s...seasonable for a change.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly clear skies and light winds will provide a fog/stratus threat this morning. Latest guidance suggests better chance of restrictions will be over the southernmost terminals, OGB/AGS/DNL where a little better low level moisture exists. Significant fog has already developed at AGS, and good possibilities of LIFR/airport minimums exists there in the near term. Back door front, currently pushing south through central/E NC, and associated low cloudiness, is expected to remain north of the terminals. After any morning fog/stratus dissipates, VFR expected today. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms near the front late today/this evening, expected to remain well N/NE of the terminals. Front will slip a little farther south tonight. Chance of stratus/possible fog late Sunday night. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning stratus/fog, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday/Tuesday. No impacts to aviation expected Wednesday/Thursday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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