Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 182257 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 557 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT... THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN. HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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