Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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076 FXUS62 KCAE 271051 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 651 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms will be isolated the next few days...possible better chance over the weekend into next week as moisture increases. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The upper level ridge will remain over the region today. Warm temperatures aloft will limit afternoon convection. At the surface a weak Piedmont trough remains in place with surface ridge offshore. Models suggest an increase in low level moisture this afternoon but shallow. This may result in a few more cumulus clouds. Vertical development will be limited due to weak instability associated with continued warm temperatures aloft. High LFC and mid level cap expected. Any convection will be isolated and mainly north and west of the region around upper ridge. 850mb temperatures similar to yesterday. Mos max temperature guidance cool bias so will go with a persistence forecast with temperatures around 100 degrees. Heat index should be below heat advisory criterion as drier air mixes down in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft and at the surface on Thursday in fact subsidence inversion may strengthen. Ridge may weaken on slightly on Friday and a few weak short waves may trigger afternoon convection...mainly west Midlands/Piedmont. Instability remains weak however. Temperatures both maximum/minimum should remain above normal. Expect Thursday max temperatures possibly warmer than today. Friday...slightly cooler with increase in moisture. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level ridge will weaken Saturday as a shortwave trough moves into the mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys. The better chances for convection appear to be possibly over the weekend but more likely next week. Moisture will increase late Saturday and Sunday with precipitable water values near 1.9 inches. Temperatures above normal with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Clear skies remain across the region with southwesterly winds around 5 knots. Very warm air mass will remain in place through the period with minimal support for thunderstorms. Cumulus will develop from the late morning through the evening hours...however the potential for impacts at TAF sites is too low to include. Tonight another low level jet around 25 knots will develop and with the warm temperatures fog is not expected. Winds will increase during the morning hours with southerly winds through the day between 8 and 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in afternoon and evening convection each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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