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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 080617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY LOWERING TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF A MILE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SHOWED LESS OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BASED ON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE...LIGHT
WIND...AND THE HRRR BELIEVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY
DAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE H5 FLOW APPEARS
CONFLUENT. WE KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. BELIEVE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SLUG
OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
AGS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF
SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$