Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 271400 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 900 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND A SERIES OF FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BROAD CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND LOWS AGAIN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CAD WEDGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REMAINING OPERATIONAL MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BUT WILL BE CUTTING THOSE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO DEVELOPING WEDGE CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER WE HAVE ENDURED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO A WARMING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WE SHOULD SEE QUITE THE WARM UP. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS SURGE INTO THE 70S. THE WEATHER MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW IMPACTING THE REGION BUT THESE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE OBSERVED IN QUITE A WHILE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. IN FACT...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LINGERING SCT TO BKN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES GENERALLY AROUND 4000 FT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NW WILL SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY TODAY. N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

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