Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KCAE 222329 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 629 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THEN REFORM OFF THE GA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO MILD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE CROSSING AL/GA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER SRN GA WORKING ITS WAS INTO WRN SC. SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT LINGERING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WIND AT THE SURFACE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WELL AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
