Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KCAE 080542
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1242 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area
Thursday. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through
the area Saturday. The coldest air of the season so far will be
associated with this air mass. The ridge will be off the coast
Sunday and temperatures will begin to moderate.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Another night of low clouds and patchy fog appears to be on tap
for the area. This is due to continue trapping of moisture below
a low-level inversion. Moisture should remain too shallow for
showers. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will move across the Ohio Valley Thursday pushing a
cold front through the forecast area. Moisture is limited with
the system, and latest guidance blends yields minimal if any POPs
for our FA. It will take a little time for the denser colder air
behind the front to make it over the mountains into our FA, but
expecting gradual infiltration of cold dry air into our FA late
Thursday through Friday. By late Friday night, the center of the
Canadian continental polar high pressure air mass will build
towards the southern Appalachians, staying just north of our FA.
This could maintain a little wind for portions of our FA and call
into question the extent of best radiational cooling conditions.
However, due to cold and dry nature of the air mass, feel
comfortable continuing to slightly undercut guidance min temps for
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold dry high pressure to build into the Carolinas Saturday, with
zonal westerly 500mb flow on Saturday with mostly clear skies
should allow for slight warming compared to Friday but
temperatures will remain well below normal.
The next storm system will develop over the Plains states and
western Ohio Valley region on Sunday as shortwave energy tracks
across the midwest with a surface low developing and lifting
northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Sunday evening. This
will push another cold front towards the region Sunday night into
Monday bringing the next chance for rain. There remain some
differences among the medium range models with the timing of the
front but rain will be possible Sun night into Monday.
Temperatures will moderate Sunday as the surface high shifts
offshore and a southerly flow returns.
Some timing uncertainty with the next system that could affect
our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Used guidance blend.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Satellite indicating widespread stratus/strato-cu across the area
with some patchy dense fog developing in the West
Midlands/Piedmont region. HRRR suggesting fog may develop
southeast resulting in visibility restrictions at the area
Terminals. Confidence moderately high that some fog may impact
terminals along with lower ceilings toward morning as stratus
build down develops. IFR and MVFR conditions will be the rule
during the overnight hours. Light wind expected through tonight
with northwest wind around 10 knots developing Thursday morning.
VFR conditions should return by around 15Z Thursday. A dry cold
front will move through the region early this afternoon with
decreasing clouds in the afternoon...a few gusts to 20 mph
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another cold front may bring precipitation and associated
restrictions Sunday night into Monday.
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