Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 280836 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 436 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region today will move off the coast tonight. Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Drier air continues to slowly filter into the CWA early this morning. Surface dew points have dropped into the 50s in the northern third of the CWA, and GOES-16 experimental PW values show a very gradual lowering overnight int he same area. most areas should see an additional bump down in dew points this afternoon with diurnal mixing as temps will rise into the mid to upper 80s by afternoon, similar to Tuesday. Looking above, the tail end of a jet maximum heading into the western Atlantic will produce some high cirrus over the southern tier of the CWA through morning, before departing during the afternoon. It should generally be thin enough to have little effect on max temps. Given the above discussed dry air and departing jet, there seems to be little chance of afternoon and evening convection, and model guidance is in generally agreement with me there, so I am not carrying any mentionable pops today in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will move off the coast tonight. Moisture will be on the increase from the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. PWAT is forecast to increase to around 2.0 inches Thursday afternoon into Friday. Upper level ridging is forecast to move off the Florida coast. Short wave energy crossing the region combined with increased moisture and weak instability will bring the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday across the CSRA into the central Midlands. The chance for convection will spread area-wide for Friday. Clouds and precipitation will keep afternoon highs in the 80s both days. Lows tonight will range through the 60s then warm around 70 for Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is forecast to stall and partially dissipate from Tennessee to North Carolina this weekend. A series of disturbances moving along the southern of edge of the polar jet stream will interact with this boundary and generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region each day. It`s too far out in time to pinpoint more versus less active days. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for early July. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With a dew point spread of 6F still ongoing at OGB, I have taken the threat of vsbys low enough to cause MVFR conditions early this morning out of their TAF. I did, however, maintain the chance at AGS where dew point spread is only 2F and wind is light upriver. Dry air at low and mid levels will remain in place during the day, with VFR conditions expected through the day and into the evening. The surface high currently over the Mid Atlantic will gradually push offshore during the day, allowing the light early morning winds out of the northeast to slowly veer during the day to a more east to southeast direction by sunset, but speeds should generally be 10 knots or less. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Wednesday. A return flow and increasing low-level moisture may provide a late night/early morning stratus threat Thu/Fri. Scattered thunderstorms expected Fri/Sat. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...Alsheimer SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...Alsheimer

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