National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 280836
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will move off the coast tonight.
Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Drier air continues to slowly filter into the CWA early this
morning. Surface dew points have dropped into the 50s in the
northern third of the CWA, and GOES-16 experimental PW values
show a very gradual lowering overnight int he same area. most
areas should see an additional bump down in dew points this
afternoon with diurnal mixing as temps will rise into the mid
to upper 80s by afternoon, similar to Tuesday.

Looking above, the tail end of a jet maximum heading into the
western Atlantic will produce some high cirrus over the southern
tier of the CWA through morning, before departing during the
afternoon. It should generally be thin enough to have little
effect on max temps.

Given the above discussed dry air and departing jet, there
seems to be little chance of afternoon and evening convection,
and model guidance is in generally agreement with me there, so
I am not carrying any mentionable pops today in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move off the coast tonight.
Moisture will be on the increase from the Gulf of Mexico
Thursday and Friday. PWAT is forecast to increase to around 2.0
inches Thursday afternoon into Friday. Upper level ridging is
forecast to move off the Florida coast. Short wave energy
crossing the region combined with increased moisture and weak
instability will bring the chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Thursday across the CSRA into the central
Midlands. The chance for convection will spread area-wide for
Friday. Clouds and precipitation will keep afternoon highs in
the 80s both days. Lows tonight will range through the 60s then
warm around 70 for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to stall and partially dissipate from
Tennessee to North Carolina this weekend. A series of
disturbances moving along the southern of edge of the polar jet
stream will interact with this boundary and generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region each day. It`s too
far out in time to pinpoint more versus less active days.
Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for early
July.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With a dew point spread of 6F still ongoing at OGB, I have taken
the threat of vsbys low enough to cause MVFR conditions early
this morning out of their TAF. I did, however, maintain the
chance at AGS where dew point spread is only 2F and wind is
light upriver.

Dry air at low and mid levels will remain in place during the
day, with VFR conditions expected through the day and into the
evening.

The surface high currently over the Mid Atlantic will gradually
push offshore during the day, allowing the light early morning
winds out of the northeast to slowly veer during the day to a
more east to southeast direction by sunset, but speeds should
generally be 10 knots or less.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Wednesday. A return flow and increasing low-level
moisture may provide a late night/early morning stratus threat
Thu/Fri. Scattered thunderstorms expected Fri/Sat.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...Alsheimer
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Alsheimer