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619
FXUS62 KCAE 141759
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge is then expected to
break down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher
rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge
should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly
warming temperatures.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions this afternoon.
- Isolated to scattered storms into the evening.

A few showers and storms have begun to develop in parts of the
Midlands and CSRA this afternoon. Expect additional development to
continue into the evening hours as daytime heating is reaching its
peak. However, with the lack of a forcing mechanism outside of
heating, expecting coverage to be similar to yesterday across the
area. Slightly drier air is trying to work its way into the area
from the west, leading to a moisture gradient similar to what we saw
yesterday. However, the gradient appears slightly west than
yesterday. I suspect most of today`s activity will be along this
gradient near the I-20 corridor. Current mixed layer CAPE values are
generally ranging from 2000-2500 J/kg across the area; plenty of
instability to produce additional storms. With some drier air
sneaking into the area, DCAPE values a notably higher in the western
half of the forecast area, currently 800-1000 J/kg, which is enough
to produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts. Small hail is
also possible with the strongest storms today. Activity diminishes
as we lose the daytime heating this evening, much like the past few
days. Overall, another typical summer time afternoon and evening.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Key message(s):

- Not as warm due to scattered afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A weakening TUTT will be approaching Florida with dry air
located on the northwest flank. PWATs drop to less than 1.5", with
2"+ PWATs on either side. Surface convergence from Monday will have
moved further inland over GA on Tuesday. The lower PWAT air
will likely limit convection slightly, but the overall extent of
coverage should still be at least chance. High temperatures
will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses fall
to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday) due to the
undercutting TUTT.

Wednesday - Thursday: Another TUTT will break off and approach the
region Wednesday allowing thunderstorms to continue both days. Storm
motions Wednesday are forecast to be around 10 kt, but increase to
near 20 kt by Thursday as the TUTT moves overhead and elongates the
wind field slightly. This means the greatest chance for locally
heavy rainfall will be on Wednesday, with slightly lower chances on
Thursday due to increased storm motion. High temperatures will be
near climo or in the lower 90s.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming into the weekend.

The TUTT that was near the area on Thursday will cross Florida
Saturday keeping afternoon thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend. High temperatures will also remain near
climo/ slightly above climo as low level thicknesses slowly
recover. Max heat index values each afternoon will be near or
just below advisory criteria (108 F).
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.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the
exception of potential restrictions associated with thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

Isolated showers and storms began developing around 1730z near
AGS/DNL/CUB/CAE. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
developing this afternoon and into the evening, possibly affecting
the other terminals as well. For now, will leave the PROB30 group in
at OGB for the time being and amend as needed. Should a storm affect
any terminal, gusty and erratic winds are possible along with
associated restrictions. Activity wanes after we lose daytime
heating. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are expected to be fairly
light around 5-7 kts, generally out of the southeast, before
becoming light and variable to calm overnight. A repeat in the winds
can be expected for tomorrow after sunrise as well. Some of the
latest guidance is hinting at some stratus and/or fog to move into
the area overnight, which is possible given the moisture in place.
However, confidence is not high enough at this time, so will use a
SCT group to indicate the possibility of at least low cigs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$