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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 302337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT.
PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO
13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND
AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$