Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 050804 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 404 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0 WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATIONS OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE DIURNAL. ON THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH...IT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99

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