Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 290758 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 358 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. FORECASTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE RECENT COOL BIAS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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