Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KCAE 020010 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 810 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.00 INCHES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS. WILL END POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS BUT CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CSRA WITH HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING. DOWNDRAFT CAPE LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. VERY SLOW STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. TREND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAS BEEN TO END CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AROUND SUNRISE. CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF CAE/CUB WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE CONVECTION AROUND AGS/DNL TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND END BY 02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THREAT. THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOWERED DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR AGS AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WITH ERODE WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD VFR. EXPECT CUMULUS TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION ATTM. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.