Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 280605 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday. The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly through the middle of the week behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will continue with best pops through this evening across the western Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and insolation with high temperatures around 90. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the work week with the next front approaching over the weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday in the middle 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Potential for restrictions mainly mid morning through the afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or lower at times. Scattered showers early this morning focused in the western and north Midlands in area of deeper moisture and stronger instability. At the moment...it appears the showers will not impact the terminals...or have minimal impact. All terminals have VFR conditions at 06z...but some MVFR fog possible mainly at AGS and OGB toward morning and this is supported by latest LAMP guidance. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across central SC and east central Georgia later this morning through the afternoon. Mid level short wave trough...strong low level convergence near the front and moderate instability will result in showers and thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain threat which may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at this time. Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z to 21z can be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift southeast of the area during the evening but confidence low...Second stronger front will be northwest of the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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