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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 252349
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today with the remnants
of a frontal boundary to our south. The front will push back
towards the north some Friday, and lead to a slight chance of
afternoon showers, mainly western areas. Fair Saturday through
Monday with a warming trend. A cold front is expected to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will continue to build down into the area from the
northeast this evening with winds shifting more east to
southeasterly allowing for low level moisture return into
tonight. While overall moisture expected to remain low through
tonight with almost all HREF members indicating PWATs remain below
an inch. Low clouds will be possible with the onshore flow late
tonight into early Friday morning. Low temperatures remain near
seasonal average, in the mid-50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure axis to extend into our region Friday,
with the old front set up just to our south and west. GEFS
ensemble guidance, as well as the HREF CAMs suite, has
consistently indicated a slight chance of rain across the
western FA as southeasterlies create some upslope flow. This
feels reasonable, and should yield a shower or two Friday
afternoon. Mid-level clouds are likely to be hanging around out
there during the afternoon hours, helping keep temps a bit
cooler than they have been the past couple days but still in the
mid and upper 70s. Mid-level clouds are likely to continue
Friday night, holding lows in the mid and upper 50s. Partly
sunny skies are expected Saturday, with mid/upper level ridging
really beginning to build into the area. This will suppress any
attempts at precip and should yield highs back in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in the long term, as LREF members continue to
show an unfavorable pattern for significant weather. Slow
moderation of afternoon highs is likely, with guidance slowly
stepping us from the low 80s Sunday into the upper 80s or low
90s by Wednesday of next week. Our next chance at rain really
doesn`t look like much of a chance. The upper ridging will
weaken slightly by Wednesday, allowing a weak cold front to
approach the region. This feature is unimpressive at this point,
so maintained the slight chance PoPs that the NBM has currently.
Overnight lows will likely moderate into the low 60s by mid week
as surface moisture increases.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings expected toward morning in central SC.

High pressure centered north of the area with onshore flow
developing. High clouds moving into the area from the west
overnight. More importantly, low-level moisture is expected to
advect southwest from eastern NC and guidance is indicating a high
probability of stratus development during the 09z-15z time frame at
the CAE/CUB and OGB terminals. AGS and DNL are expected to remain
VFR. Higher confidence for MVFR than IFR at the moment. The low
clouds should lift by 16z. The boundary layer appears mixed
overnight so do not expect fog. Mainly mid level ceilings after 18z
Friday. Winds east or east-southeast 5 to 10 knots after 12z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread aviation impacts unlikely
through Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$