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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 210552
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
152 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves slowly southward and through the area
tonight. The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of
the area Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will
result in numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures
Sunday and Monday are expected to be well below normal. Drier
conditions return on Monday, with a gradual warming trend
through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The boundary is finally pushing south and east early this
morning with strengthening northerly, dry low level flow and
corresponding increasing 850-700mb moisture advection and
isentropic lift. So shower activity will increase as the
boundary sags south into Sunday morning with wedge conditions
beginning to develop.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night: Surface cold front will be situated
south of the forecast area. Weak high pressure off to the north
will push cooler air into the region on northeasterly winds,
allowing a low-level wedge to develop. Aloft, shortwave energy
moves out of the central Gulf Coast States to start off the day,
then traverses the southeastern U.S. into Sunday night. Ahead
of the upper wave, a good deal of isentropic lift is expected as
warm moist air lifts and overrides the surface wedge in place
across the forecast area. This will lead to periods of light to
moderate rainfall for a good portion of the daytime hours
Sunday. Temperatures will be much colder as the wedge develops
and rainfall re-enforces it through the day. High temperatures
may actually occur early in the day in many areas, with
temperatures either holding steady or slowly falling through the
day. Max temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
north to mid 60s south. Sunday night will see the rain begin to
end from west to east as upper energy moves east and towards the
coast. Lows Sunday night in the lower 40s north, to the upper
40s south.

Monday and Monday night: As deeper moisture moves east with both
the exiting shortwave and surface front, drier air will be
settling back into the area through the day. Can not rule out a
brief period of light rain across the extreme east early Monday
morning as the system moves out. In addition, an isolated shower
can not be completely ruled out as the main upper trough moves
through. For the majority of the forecast area, it will remain
dry though. Clouds may still hang around behind the low through
a good portion of the day, which will still help to keep cooler
temperatures in the area, but still a little warmer than
Sunday as highs do reach into the middle 60s. Skies should begin
to clear out some by Monday night. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Period will be mostly on the dry side, with only a slight chance
for rain entering late in the period. Two frontal boundaries
are forecast through the period. The first comes through
Wednesday night/Thursday, but with limited moisture to work with
it should push through mostly dry. Better chance for rain may
occur with the second front toward next weekend. Temperatures
will slowly continue to moderate each day through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deteriorating conditions expected early this morning with
widespread restrictions through Sunday.

While the thunderstorm threat has diminished over the terminals,
widespread rain associated with increasing moisture and
isentropic lift is expected to move in from the west over the
next few hours. This will lead to restrictions developing at all
the terminals around daybreak with IFR ceilings expected by
late morning. While the rain should remain light enough through
the day for visibilities to remain MVFR, it does remain
possible that at times heavier rain leads to IFR visibility.
Some improvement possible tonight as drier air moves in from the
west with the front pushing farther offshore but kept MVFR
ceilings in through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering restrictions possible
early Monday morning. No significant impacts to aviation
expected beyond Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$