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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 230351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1151 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WILL DIMINISH. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING. CUT POPS AFTER 18Z FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS
OUR FA. MOST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE
SC...STRETCHING SW ACROSS NE AND CENT GA. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CSRA. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP IN AGS/DNL TAFS...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL
MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED.
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$