Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301216 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 816 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in northern Quebec will build down into the area through tonight. The high will begin to move east of the region Friday. Low pressure will track off the New Jersey coast Friday night and will pass south of the Gulf of Maine during the day Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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8:15 AM Update...Modified cloud cover a bit to reflect stratus covering much of northwest, but clearer skies south and east. Stratus is beginning to break up across the north so trended skies partially clearer into midday. Previous discussion... An upper trough across eastern New Brunswick early this morning will move east of the Maritimes today. An upper low in the central plains will move into the Ohio Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure in northern Quebec will gradually nose down into Maine later today into tonight. Stratocu across parts of the cwa early this morning will give way to more breaks of sunshine this afternoon across northern areas, with the sky to become mostly sunny across the Downeast Region. Highs today will range from the mid 30s across the Saint John Valley to the low 40s in the Greater Bangor Region. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows mostly in the teens north to the low to mid 20s Downeast. The northern valleys will likely fully decouple and with a clear sky and deep snow pack temperatures may drop to near zero in some of the broad northwest valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will slowly slide across eastern New England Friday, leading to a dry day with highs in the mid 30s north to lower 40s Downeast. Clouds will increase through the day, particularly across western and southern portions of the forecast area as our next storm system approaches from the west. Low pressure will develop over the Mid Atlantic states Friday night and then slide offshore on Saturday. Precipitation will attempt an eastward push into western Maine Friday night, but don`t expect it to make much progress as it encounters the retreating high. Heading into Saturday, there is considerable model spread when it comes to the placement of the low and its associated precipitation. The models currently fall into two camps; the NAM, ECWMF, and SREF have the low center further north, particularly at 700 mb, where the low is slower to close off off across the southern Gulf of Maine and the trough extends northwest into Quebec. The GFS and Canadian, meanwhile, are quicker to close the 700mb low off and keep it well south of Cape Cod. The difference in the two solutions would mean the difference of steady rain and/or snow across much of the region, particularly in the Central Highlands and Downeast, versus just some isolated to scattered rain and snow showers over the higher terrain of the North Woods. Have gone with a model blend that weighs a bit heavier toward the NAM/ECMWF/SREF solution. This would potentially result in a few inches of snow west of an Allagash to Ellsworth line; locations further east would see an inch or less. That being said, forecast confidence is low in any snow amounts at this time; not only due to the aforementioned model differences, but also due to the fact that Saturday`s highs will be in the lower and mid 30s, meaning many locations will likely see a rain/snow mix by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The aforementioned model differences continue through Saturday night, with the NAM, ECMWF, and SREF all spitting out a fairly significant amount of QPF across eastern portions of the forecast area (in the case of the NAM, an additional half inch or more for Downeast Maine), while the GFS and Canadian produce very little additional precipitation. Have stayed close to an overall model blend, which gives chance PoPs for Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds across the region thereafter, leading to dry weather Monday. Then another potential weather maker arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night, at least according to the GFS, which takes low pressure across Quebec and develops a secondary low off the New England coast, with an associated band of precipitation to cross the Northeast CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. The ECMWF meanwhile keeps the low and precipitation much further south, leaving the Pine Tree State high and dry. Again, have stayed close to a model blend to account for these differences. Temperatures through next week look to be near seasonal normal. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: A few pockets of MVFR early this morning, mainly at KFVE. Otherwise VFR for the next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail Friday under increasing mid and high clouds. Clouds will then thicken and lower Friday night ahead of approaching low pressure. MVFR conditions are possible at KBGR and KBHB after 06z Sat due to ceilings and light snow. These conditions will spread eastward to the other sites after 12z Sat and continue through 12z Sun. Rain and snow will be likely, particularly at KBHB and KBGR, which may produce occasional IFR visibility 18z Sat through 06z Sun. MVFR will gradually improve to VFR from south to north after 12z Sun with just a few lingering rain or snow showers at the northern terminals. VFR to prevail at all sites after 00z Mon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. A north wind will gust as high as 25 to 30 knots at times through early this evening, with seas as high as 5 feet across the offshore portion of the coastal zones. The wind will diminish and the seas subside tonight as high pressure builds across the waters from the north. SHORT TERM: High pressure will lead to fairly quiet conditions on the waters Friday into Friday night. Low pressure will move south of the waters late Friday night through Saturday, resulting in increasing east to northeast winds and building seas. Small Craft conditions will likely be met by daybreak Saturday as winds gust 25-30 kt, so an SCA is anticipated to be needed early Saturday morning into Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Today is the 121st consecutive day with a foot or more of snow on the ground at Caribou, Maine. This breaks the record of 120 days during the winter of 1968-1969. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings Climate...CB

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