Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 252155 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 555 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 HRLY QPF WAS UPDATED FROM LATE TNGT THRU SUN. CORRESPONDING POP AND WX GRIDS WERE THEN RE-DONE TO MATCH THE POTENTIAL OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PD...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WEIGHTED. OTHERWISE... FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TNGT INTO MON BASED ON OBSVD FCST HI TEMPS FROM THIS PAST AFTN AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS TNGT AND FCST HI TEMPS ON SUN. ORGNL DISC: A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MAINE...AS A NEW LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO JAMES BAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SRN QUEBEC. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER WRN MAINE...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY THE JET...AND BEGIN TO BECOME COLD CORE. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.. THE STRENGTH OF A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. CLEARING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING COULD PRODUCE SOME CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE ALLAGASH AND PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TUESDAY BUT RESIDUAL STRATOCUMULUS AND WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING. A SECONDARY...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UNCERTAINTY BUILDS TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SEEMS DESTINED TO FORM IN THE EASTERN US...BUT WHETHER IS FORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE AIR ALOFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR FVE...CAR...PQI...AND HUL. IN WRAP AROUND PCPN EARLY...A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING BECOMING MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS N AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY MORNING...BUT SITES NORTH OF HUL REMAIN MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR ALL SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A NEW SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.