Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270116 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 916 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... .915 PM UPDATE. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGIN ACROSS NRN MAINE. UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG... MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA. AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE. PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z. SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS... SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NORTON NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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