National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 091949
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON LOW
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD TO TEENS DOWNEAST
AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. READINGS NEAR THE ZERO MARK ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ALLAGASH AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NE SUCH AS MASARDIS WHERE
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW RAPID COOLING. GEMS DEWPTS
SHOW DEWPTS DECREASING TOWARDS ZERO IN NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AM. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BANGOR AREA AND DOWNEAST DURING THE
MORNING WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH. HAVE
NOT BROUGHT ANY PRECIP INTO THE CWA FOR THIS PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ENTIRE 12Z MDL SUITE SHOWS STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL S OF OUR FA
WED NGT/ERLY THU... AT BEST...APPEARS ONLY OUTER MOST ISLANDS MAY
SEE SOME LGT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WED NGT AS IT
SLIDES S AND SE OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...OUR REGION TO REMAIN
UNDER THE BROAD NRLY LOW-LVL FLOW RESULTING FROM THE BROAD AREA OF
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA... OCNL WEAK
SPOKES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL ACT TO TRIGGER A FEW
FLURRIES OR LGT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR NRN AND WRN MAINE W/ PARTLY TO M/CLDY
SKIES N AND CLR TO P/CLDY SKIES S (AFTER MID/HGH CLDS FROM THE SRN
STORM SYSTEM PULL OUT OF SRN AREAS BY ERLY THU AM. BESIDES A
RATHER BENIGN WX PTRN...RELATIVELY MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTS
TO ADVECT SWWRD FROM THE MARITIMES AND THIS WILL CONT TO YIELD ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PTRN DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION PERSISTS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD... EVENTUALLY MDLS SIMILAR IN TRYING TO BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES FROM ERN CANADA BCK TO THE WSW (A
FREQUENT SCENARIO THIS WNTR...) WHICH MAY ACT TO MAKE THINGS A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE WEEKEND/ERLY NXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE
GFS W/ SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN GEM...TRIES TO DVLP LOW PRES
OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN NGT W/ THE GFS LIFTING THIS
SYSTEM UP INTO OUR AREA LATE MON/MON NGT. NOT SURE ABOUT THE GEM
AS ITS FCST TIME PERIOD ENDS MON AM. THE ECMWF HAS NO HINT OF
THIS SYSTEM... GIVEN THE PERSISTENT PTRN OF LATE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE TO ERR TOWARDS A MORE BENIGN SCENARIO ATTM SO WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW CHC POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS IN NE CORNER OF STATE WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING. AN MVFR DECK ALONG THE COAST...REACHING NORTHWARD TO
BGR WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDS.

SHORT TERM: NW FLOW W/ OCNL SPOKES OF ENERGY TO PERSIST WED NGT
THRU SUN AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDS W/ TEMPO MVFR
IN ANY SW- MAINLY NRN TAF SITES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WEDS PM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WIND GUSTS REACHING OVER 30 KTS BY EVENING. WAVE HTS WILL INCREASE
MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...ON THURS.

SHORT TERM: STORM SYSTEM TO PASS WELL S OF THE AREA WED NGT BUT
CLOSE ENUF TO BRING LOW-END GLW CONDS TO OUR OUTER WATERS. WILL
HOIST A GLW WRNG FOR LATER WED NGT THRU THU AM FOR JUST THE OUTER
WATERS ATTM...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/KHW