Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261858 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 258 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary across the north will lift north as a warm front late tonight. A strong cold front will approach on Wednesday and cross the area Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front Thursday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak cold front will slowly move southward out of Canada this evening, making it to as far south as Houlton and Millinocket before lifting back north later tonight. Hi-res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP continue to show scattered showers traveling along this front overnight. The other focus for tonight will be areas of fog that will lift onshore overnight. It`ll be another muggy night, especially in those areas that remain south of the frontal boundary. Northern areas may get a bit of a reprieve- especially compared to last night-but it`ll likely still feel a little uncomfortable. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the Saint John Valley to the mid 60s in the Central Highlands and interior Downeast. For Wednesday...a stronger cold front will approach from the west, bringing a better chance for showers, especially in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be possible in the north and west where SB CAPE is progged to be 500-1000 J/kg. There will be plenty of low stratus and fog around in the morning, which will help to keep temperatures a good 10-15 degrees cooler than what we`ve been experiencing over the past couple of days. Dewpoints will surge back into the lower and mid 60s though, so the mugginess will continue.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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We will be in a warm humid airmass on Wednesday, but this will be the last day of the warm humid weather as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will push into the north late Wednesday evening and continue south reaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A line of rain showers is likely with the front, especially across the north. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible. Capes are expected to be close to 500 J/Kg and dynamic lift with the help of surface convergence may support the convection. Winds will be strong aloft and any stronger storms could contain locally gusty winds. The sky will clear behind the front on Thursday and the air will feel more autumnal as Canada high pressure begins pushing in from the west. Friday will be very cool with some stratocumulus limiting sunshine across the north and a mostly sunny sky Downeast. Highs will only range from the 50s north to 60s Downeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Canadian high pressure will continue to push very chilly air across the region Friday night into Saturday with dry weather and a sunny to partly cloudy sky on Saturday. The high will slide south of the region on Sunday allowing ridging behind the high and a return southwesterly flow to bring some modification with plenty of sunshine. Mostly clear and mild weather will continue through early next week as ridging remains in place along the east coast.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will give way to IFR/LIFR at all sites overnight, especially the southern terminals, due to low stratus and fog. Showers will be possible at the northern sites, as well. Fog will dissipate and ceilings lift gradually after 13z Wednesday, with most sites MVFR by 16z. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches from the west. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in rain and some thundershowers are expected across the north Wednesday night with VFR conditions lowering to MVFR Downeast. Conditions should improve to VFR across the north late Wednesday night following the cold frontal passage. VFR conditions are then expected Thursday through Saturday with the possible exception of some MVFR conditions in lower stratocumulus across the far north Friday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight and Wednesday. This is due to long period south swell from Hurricane Maria. Dense fog is expected to develop again this evening and linger over the waters into Wednesday morning, reducing visibility to below 1SM at times. SHORT TERM: Winds may approach 25 kt in gusts across the offshore waters Wednesday night and again Thursday night. Seas Thursday and Friday will be around 6 ft, mainly in S swell from hurricane Maria. Seas will subside over the weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Currently long period swell from Maria which is running at 13-16 seconds/5-7 feet is affecting the Gulf of Maine. The long period swell is expected to persist through Wednesday as Hurricane Marine moves out to sea well to the south of New England Thursday. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been extended out through Wednesday evening. Long period waves have a high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous rip currents are also expected. Coastal flooding or beach erosion is not expected at this time.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hastings/Bloomer Marine...Hastings/Bloomer Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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