Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300041 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 841 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight. High pressure will cross the region Thursday through early Friday. A warm front will cross the region later Friday, with a cold front Friday night. Another cold front will cross the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Update 840 PM - The slow moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has reached the New Brunswick border. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may redevelop through midnight as the upper low over Quebec lifts to the northeast. Updated the forecast to reflect current radar and satellite trends. Update 610 PM - A slow moving line of showers and thunderstorms was pushing into eastern Maine this evening. Hourly rainfall rates of up to one half inch per hour were reported by the WSR-88D weather radar with rates diminishing due to the loss of daytime heating. The line will continue to diminish as it pushes east, however can expect organized activity through midnight. A weak cold front will slowly push across the area this evening as an upper level trough of low pressure lifts across the north. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms, mostly across the north, will dissipate this evening. Skies will then trend clearer from south to north late tonight into Thursday morning. Weak upper level ridging pushing across the area on Thursday combined with weak surface high pressure will then bring a mostly sunny day Thursday with a warm afternoon and light winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Thursday night with mostly clear skies. High pressure then moves east early Friday...with a warm front approaching late. Cloud cover will begin to increase Friday afternoon with a chance of showers late mostly across western portions of the forecast area. A cold front then crosses the region Friday night through early Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front/trof crosses the region Saturday afternoon while an upper low approaches northern areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will increase afternoon instability, particularly across northern portions of the forecast area. The increased instability along the the cold front/trof will support the chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the forecast area Saturday, particularly northern areas. Temperatures are expected to be at above normal levels Friday, with near normal level temperatures Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper level low will track north of the region Saturday night keeping a chance of showers across northern portions of the forecast area, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. The upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. However, could still have a chance of showers across northern areas Sunday with partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure will build across the region Monday into Tuesday. However, an upper level disturbance could possibly bring the risk of an isolated shower across mostly the north and mountains. A cold front could begin to approach later Wednesday with a slight chance of showers. Temperatures should be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday, with slightly above normal level temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected this evening, lowering to IFR in some lower stratus clouds later this evening and overnight. Conditions will then improve to MVFR then VFR Thursday morning in clearing skies. VFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday night into Friday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop late Friday. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Friday night into early Saturday. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are possible later Saturday. Generally expect VFR conditions Sunday, though occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today and tonight. Some fog will continue to obscure visibilities over the waters this evening with an improvement in visibilities late tonight through Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Friday afternoon into Saturday. Showers/thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance of showers Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Okulski Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Okulski/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Okulski/Norcross

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