Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191946 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 346 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT. THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LEADS TO TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT BECAUSE RADITATIONAL COOLING WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZED GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOWEVER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WOULD SUPPORT HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN AND INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW GIVEN THIS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH COASTAL AREAS IN THE IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST EVENING SHIFT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING AND COULD NEED TO DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SITUATION PLAYS OUT. SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS. SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TODAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER LATER SATURDAY SEAS AND WINDS DO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JORDAN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...JORDAN/FOISY MARINE...JORDAN/FOISY

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