Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 300041
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
841 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday through early Friday. A
warm front will cross the region later Friday, with a cold front
Friday night. Another cold front will cross the region Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update 840 PM - The slow moving line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms has reached the New Brunswick border. Scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may redevelop through
midnight as the upper low over Quebec lifts to the northeast.
Updated the forecast to reflect current radar and satellite
Update 610 PM - A slow moving line of showers and thunderstorms
was pushing into eastern Maine this evening. Hourly rainfall rates
of up to one half inch per hour were reported by the WSR-88D
weather radar with rates diminishing due to the loss of daytime
heating. The line will continue to diminish as it pushes east,
however can expect organized activity through midnight.
A weak cold front will slowly push across the area this evening as
an upper level trough of low pressure lifts across the north.
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms, mostly across the north,
will dissipate this evening. Skies will then trend clearer from
south to north late tonight into Thursday morning. Weak upper
level ridging pushing across the area on Thursday combined with
weak surface high pressure will then bring a mostly sunny day
Thursday with a warm afternoon and light winds.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Thursday night with mostly
clear skies. High pressure then moves east early Friday...with a
warm front approaching late. Cloud cover will begin to increase
Friday afternoon with a chance of showers late mostly across
western portions of the forecast area. A cold front then crosses
the region Friday night through early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front/trof crosses the region
Saturday afternoon while an upper low approaches northern areas.
Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday afternoon along with
steepening mid level lapse rates which will increase afternoon
instability, particularly across northern portions of the
forecast area. The increased instability along the the cold
front/trof will support the chance of afternoon thunderstorms
across the forecast area Saturday, particularly northern areas.
Temperatures are expected to be at above normal levels Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level low will track north of the region Saturday night
keeping a chance of showers across northern portions of the
forecast area, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. The
upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. However, could
still have a chance of showers across northern areas Sunday with
partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure will build across
the region Monday into Tuesday. However, an upper level
disturbance could possibly bring the risk of an isolated shower
across mostly the north and mountains. A cold front could begin to
approach later Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures should be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday, with
slightly above normal level temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected this evening, lowering to
IFR in some lower stratus clouds later this evening and overnight.
Conditions will then improve to MVFR then VFR Thursday morning in
clearing skies. VFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon.
SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday night into
Friday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop late Friday.
MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Friday night into early
Saturday. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are possible later Saturday.
Generally expect VFR conditions Sunday, though occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas.
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today and
tonight. Some fog will continue to obscure visibilities over the
waters this evening with an improvement in visibilities late
tonight through Thursday following the passage of a weak cold
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Visibilities will
be reduced in fog Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Showers/thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still
a chance of showers Saturday.