Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311346 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM... WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD... WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION. WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES BY SUN NGT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN

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