Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300513 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1213 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1214 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO. AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE. LIGHT SNOW AS OF MIDNIGHT AT QUEBEC CITY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE SHARPLY DOWN EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ONSET...REACHING NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH LIGHT SNOW HITTING WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SLOWING SPREADING EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER WILL BE ARRIVING OUT OF QUEBEC...BUT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN MASS COAST FRIDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIER SNOW WILL START TO BREAK OUT ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE LINE FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE ALLAGASH. AREAS UNDER THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING WHILE AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MAY ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO BY EVENING. SNOW RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD CAUSE EVEN HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EVOLVING TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL IMPACT BANGOR AND DOWN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD IN EASTERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME A BIG FACTOR AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...CREATING ANOTHER VERY DIFFICULT DAY FOR MOTORISTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY LIFTED. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH GOOD DENDRITC GROWTH...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED BY THE STRONG WINDS. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOTALS TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF RUN THAT SHOWS A VERY ROBUST TROWAL AFFECTING THE AREA ALL DAY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 14-18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE COUNTY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGS SOUTH FROM NWRN CANADA AND WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ERN TX WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING NE INTO THE OHIO RVR VLLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX FOR MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS MAINE...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN KY...THE WARM FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF VA. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/DP/WND/POP/SKI. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER SRN KY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH VA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VA ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST OF VA/NC. BY MON EVNG BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW NE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...EAST OF LONG ISLAND...WRAPPING THE PCPN SHIELD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. BY TUE MRNG THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. TUES MRNG...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...THE GFS INDICATES A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW OVER IA. BY TUES EVNG THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY...THE FRONT MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC. WED MRNG THE FRONT MOVES INTO CNTRL ME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW OVER LAKE HURON. WED EVNG THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO SRN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN MAINE. THURS MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO ERN QUEBEC...MOVE THE FRONT TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDED SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER QUEBEC CITY...DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF NJ. BY THURS EVNG BOTH MODELS BUILD THE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA...THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN -SN EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SITES WILL BECOME IFR IN SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR BGR AND BHB. LIFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALL DAY SATURDAY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND ERN MAINE SAT NGT. MVFR SKYCON...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY DURING SN SHOWERS. SKYCON WILL CLR OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS GALE INTENSITIES. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SAT EVNG...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...CB/MCW MARINE...CB/MCW

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