Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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580 FXUS61 KCAR 222312 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the southwest tonight. The low will track west of our region on Tuesday as a weak secondary low forms in northern Maine. Low pressure will lift to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from central Canada. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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6:12 pm update: A 996 mb low just west of Chicago early this evening will track into southeast Ontario by 18z Tue as a secondary low begins to take shape by around midday Tue in the Hudson Valley of NY. Overunning snow will break out across the western portions of the CWA between 7-9 pm, but will likely not reach the eastern Saint John Valley until around midnight. There is a lot of low level dry air, especially in the north. Initially the snow will be on the light side. The main update at this time was to slow the advance of the PoPs into the area by a couple of hours, and to have a tighter gradient in the PoPs this evening. Previous discussion... High pressure will be to our north this evening as low pressure approaching from the southwest pushes a warm front into the area. Moisture running east along this front will spread snow across the region beginning in the west early this evening then pushing east across the rest of the area later tonight. As the storm system lifts to our west Tuesday morning warmer air will change precipitation over to sleet, freezing rain then plain rain from south to north. By midday precipitation should be over to all rain in southern areas and sleet and freezing rain across the north, except still snow over the far north. Model guidance has been consistent in showing a weak secondary low forming over the north central part of our region Tuesday afternoon. The position of this low may maintain a north to northeast surface flow across northern and northwestern Aroostook county keeping freezing temps there. Warming aloft may change precip over to sleet and freezing rain, but a change to plain rain may be confined to areas from east central Aroostook County on south. Heavy rain Downeast Tuesday afternoon combined with snow melt may result in rises on rivers and the risk of ice movement and some flooding. Also, a strong low level jet may produce a period of high winds Downeast Tuesday afternoon. A dry intrusion will end precipitation across the area Tuesday evening. However, a trailing upper level shortwave trough will likely produce some occasional snow across the far north overnight Tuesday night as cold air returns behind the low.
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Intensifying low pressure will lift northeast of Maine Wednesday and across NewFoundland/Labrador Wednesday night. Across northern areas Wednesday, expect mainly cloudy skies and lingering snow showers, with decreasing clouds across central and down east. A fairly tight pressure gradient will be in place behind the intensifying low on Wednesday resulting in gusty northwest winds across the region. High pressure will build toward the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies across the region Wednesday night and partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday and then fall back to below normal levels on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect fair and dry weather conditions Thursday night through Friday as high pressure slides across the region. The high will move off shore of the east coast Friday night and Saturday. A warm front is expected to approach from the west Friday night and cross the region on Saturday. A cold front will approach Saturday night and cross the region on Sunday, with the chance for snow/rain showers Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build toward the region on Monday. Temperatures will be below normal on Friday and then above normal through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will drop to MVFR then IFR this evening as snow spreads in. LIFR conditions are then expected from late tonight through Tuesday in snow and mixed precipitation. Conditions should improve to MVFR Downeast Tuesday evening but will likely remain IFR across the north. SHORT TERM: Lingering snow showers behind intensifying low pressure will persist across far northern areas Wednesday with potential for periods of MVFR/IFR, with VFR expected toward KBGR/KBHB. Gusty northwest winds are expected on Wednesday behind the low. VFR conditions are then expected across the entire region Wednesday night through Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning is up from late Tuesday into Tuesday evening for winds gusting over 40 kt. Seas will build up to 16 ft in response to the strong south winds. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions will likely persist through much of the mid to late week period. && .HYDROLOGY... Precipitation QPF across Downeast is expected to approach 1.5 inches by Tuesday night with most of this being in the form of rain. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt will result in rises on rivers and streams, especially Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Ice jams are in place on the Piscataquis and Pleasant Rivers as well as on the Kenduskeag Stream. There is concern that these ice jams could break up and move with the warmer temps and rainfall. This could lead to water backing up behind the jams leading to the possibility of flooding. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ015>017-029-030. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Duda Marine...Bloomer/CB/Duda Hydrology...Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.