Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KCAR 221150 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 650 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRES TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS TERM. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING PER LATEST SATL IMAGES AS CLOUD IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN NNE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST IR STAL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS(2500 FT) MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC GRABS THIS NICELY AS DOES THE LATEST LAPS. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW THIS STRATOCUMULUS DECK HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE N. THIS DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP AS WELL ON THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST...MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TWEAKED GMOS NUMBERS DOWN A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE NORTH W/LOWER 40S AND MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SHOWING UP BELOW 2500 FT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/AN ESE FLOW AND INVERSION. THE SREF 4 PANEL MOISTURE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS TO SOME POINT. DECIDED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE COAST AND NUDGED THEM UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IN TURN COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW IN THESE AREAS OPPOSITE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. TWEAKED THE DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND BROUGHT THEM UP ACROSS THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. FURTHER NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLIER W/MID-UPPER 20S. CONTINUED DAY AND A BIT MILDER ON MONDAY W/THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BUT RIDGING REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR POP...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND WILL USE GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOOTH GRIDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. WARM AIR MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT INTO SATURDAY....HOWEVER COLDER WILL MOVE AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM LATER INTO THE WEEKEND CHANGING SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY...POP AND WIND GUST GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE BHB AREA WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. GENERALLY VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR BGR/BHB. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ATTM...DECISION WAS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT LOOK TO BE GOING RATE FOR THIS TERM. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL INCREASE MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS IN NORTHEAST WIND TUESDAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO GMOS WINDS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR GMOS WINDS IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
