Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230655 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE JULY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI

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