Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 062125 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 425 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR TEMPO IFR AT FVE DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT HUL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND NORTH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED IT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT MARINE...MCW/HEWITT

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