Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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309 FXUS61 KCAR 280439 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1239 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north of the area overnight. A weak cold front will cross the region on Saturday. This front will lift north of the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 am update...Line of showers and tstms moving across interior downeast areas toward the coast. Latest radar indicated some storms rather healthy w/cores of 60+ dbz up to 16.5k ft. Lightning detection showed continuous lightning and small hail possible in the heaviest cores. Included heavy rainfall through the overnight period. Latest LAPS soundings showed MUCAPES up near 500 joules w/this convection. Instability looks like it will weaken as the storms push se per the latest HRRR and RAP. Updated the AWW for BIA(Bangor International Airport) through 130 AM. Fog will be the other issue overnight as areas of fog already impacting the downeast areas including the coast. Alot of llvl moisture in place all the way up into northern areas. Therefore, expanded fog into Northern Maine overnight. Previous Discussion... Frontal bndry wl slide thru and bisect CWA by 12Z in the morning. Hv isold-lochc pops acrs far nw this evng but fropa wl mostly be dry as it drops south. May see isold thunder along the coast drg the aftn as front conts to slide south. As far as temps go, expect min temps to drop into the l/m-50s areawide tonight. Maxes on Sat wl only climb into the lwr 70s acrs the north bhnd front while Downeast locations wl rise into the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak area of high pressure will be across the north Sunday evening. Clouds will increase as moisture, cascading over the top of the ridge, begins to approach ahead of a warm front. This will be followed by a mostly cloudy day on Sunday. Low pressure lifting west of the area Sunday will continue to draw moisture north along the warm front bringing rain across the north with just a chance for some showers Downeast. Showers will likely continue overnight Sunday night, especially over central and northern areas. By Monday, the warm front will be north of the area and warm and very humid air will be across the region as low pressure tracks well to the north. Lots of moisture in the region will keep skies mostly cloudy and a few showers may still be around. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, mainly during the afternoon. Sounding profiles show some weak shear but also weak capes around 100 j/kg with limited heating. The humid air moving in over the cooler waters will likely result in some fog along the coast on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showery weather will continue through Tuesday as a couple of shortwaves will slide across the region. Ridging builds in thereafter, leading to a dry spell Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure will cross to our north on Friday while dragging its attendant cold front across northern New England. There`s some disagreement between the long-range models as to the strength and timing of this front, but at the least expect we`ll see some showers as it goes through. Temperatures will be warmest earlier in the period; Tuesday`s highs will top out in the 80s across the Central Highlands down through interior Downeast, while elsewhere should see mid to upper 70s. Highs will mainly be in the 70s thereafter, though the coast will remain cooler Thursday and Friday owing to onshore flow. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Updated: AWW for BIA/KBGR through 130 AM for cloud to ground lightning. IFR w/LIFR at the downeast terminals tonight. Predominately MVFR the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE, but it is possible that conditions could deteriorate to IFR later tonight, but confidence is low. expect improving conditions to VFR by mid- morning Saturday. SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Saturday night. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected on Sunday then IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds and some fog are likely Sunday night in Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through tomorrow. Areas of fog are expected tonight. SHORT TERM: the wind and seas are expected to be below SCA Saturday night through Sunday night. The wind may reach SCA in gusts over the offshore waters on Monday. Very humid air over the waters may result in areas of dense fog on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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