Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011301 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 901 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM UPDATE...THE AIR IS WARMING QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS SO HAD TO RAISE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F. Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch, with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns. Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning, rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds, large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6 bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time to add the enhanced wording. Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper 40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph. These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power outages. Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with lows in the low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over 35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread 80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach later Thursday. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt with shwrs and possible tstms. SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5 sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat. SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the winter, public safety necessitate an advisory. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCB Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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