Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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373 FXUS61 KCAR 260409 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge will crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update 1210 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point. No other changes. Previous discussion... The upper level ridge will build to the west of the area through the early portions of the period, and its associated surface high will build south from Quebec across Maine into the coastal waters. A low centered over Missouri with a frontal system extending east into the eastern Great lakes will deepen through the period and move northeast to the Chicago area by the of the period. Its associated warm front will move to the New Hampshire/Maine border by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night as low pressure approaches from the west. Some light snow will spread into western areas by Monday morning. As the low approaches the St. Lawrence valley on Monday warmer air aloft will be pulled north changing precipitation over to some sleet and rain Downeast as snow continues across the north. A weak secondary low forming along the coast may hold enough cold air near the surface to allow snow to persist across the north Monday afternoon into Monday evening as precipitation changes to rain Downeast. A mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely over central areas into Monday evening. Warmer air will continue to push north on Tuesday allowing precipitation to change over to rain in all areas expect the far north where some sleet and wet snow may continue to mix in. By late Tuesday one wave of low pressure will be sliding east, south of Nova Scotia while another low begins to approach from the Appalachians. Between the two, precipitation may end for a while Tuesday but skies will remain overcast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 trof will approach from the Quebec Province Tuesday night and cross the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect the chance of some snow/rain showers across the north and rain showers downeast as the trof crosses the region. Thursday and Friday are shaping up as mainly dry days in the wake of the departing trof. Another disturbance crossing the region next weekend will bring the next chance of precipitation. Temperatures through the period will average around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions all sites through the period. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday night, possibly improving to MVFR late at night. Conditions will lower to IFR on Monday and likely remain IFR in low clouds through Tuesday. MVFR conditions in scattered snow/rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below SCA criteria through the period. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed late Monday into Monday night for southeasterly winds gusting up to 25kt ahead of approaching low pressure. Fog will likely limit visibilities over the waters late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .CLIMATE... 3/25 was the 116th consecutive day with at least 1 foot of snow on the ground at Caribou. The all-time record of 120 days was set during the winter of 1968-1969. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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