Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222309 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NE. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005- 006-010-011-031-032. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BERDES MARINE...VJN/BERDES FIRE WEATHER...VJN

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