Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 120241 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 941 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross then move east of the region overnight. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday then track across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 935 PM Update: Fcst ovrngt lows were again adjusted downward across portions of the N and E based on latest sfc obs, but increasing and thickening cldnss from the W ovrngt will stabilize the fall of temps arnd mdngt, with temps rising very late tngt spcly when thicker cld cvr combines with a developing lgt return Erly sfc wind. Orgnl Disc: High pressure will cross the region tonight while intensifying low pressure tracks east across the Great Lakes. An isolated snow shower is possible this evening. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies early tonight with increasing clouds overnight in advance of the approaching low. The low will track toward southern Maine Tuesday. Snow will expand northeast across the region through the morning into the early afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form of snow across much of the region Tuesday. However, onshore winds will draw warmer air inland from the Gulf of Maine which will allow the snow to transition to rain along the Downeast coast during the afternoon. The transition to rain will begin to reach interior Downeast areas during the late afternoon. Have issued Winter Storm Warnings across northern portions of Aroostook and Somerset counties along with northern and central portions of Piscataquis county. Have issued Winter Weather Advisories across much of the rest of the region with the exception of the Downeast coast where the transition to rain will limit snow accumulations. Low temperatures tonight will range from around zero to 5 below north, to 10 to 15 interior Downeast with upper teens to around 20 along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Tuesday will range through the 20s north, to the mid to upper 30s interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will be centered over the southwestern portion of the state Tuesday evening with moderate to heavy snow continuing across central and northern areas and rain Downeast. The low center will track north across the central part of our region. This will allow warmer air to be pulled north through eastern areas. The snow may change over to bit of sleet, freezing rain and rain as far north as northeastern Aroostook County early Wednesday morning. The low center will continue north of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Eastern areas will remain mild early Wednesday before much colder air wrapping in behind the low allows temperatures to plunge Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls are possible in northwestern areas Wednesday evening as cold air wraps in. Frigid arctic air and strong gusty winds on Thursday will then bring bitter cold wind chills. Expect a mostly sunny sky Downeast and a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the north on Thursday with snow showers as low pressure both surface and aloft lifts north through Quebec. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The sky will become mostly clear Thursday night as low pressure continues to move away to the north and high pressure settles in from the west. Low temperatures will range from near 0 across the north to 10 Downeast. Friday will begin mostly sunny and cold. Some high clouds may start to increase from a new area of low pressure lifting north from the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure Friday night into Saturday is expected to track to our east toward Nova Scotia. This may brush eastern Downeast and east central areas with a bit of snow late Friday night into Saturday morning. The low will move away Saturday afternoon as high pressure returns. High pressure will remains across the area on Sunday. Another low sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast and tracking to the south may brush the Downeast region with some snow on Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible with any snow showers early tonight. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected tonight. However, MVFR conditions could begin to develop late. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels Tuesday. SHORT TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds, rain Downeast, and snow over the north can be expected Tuesday night. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR Downeast and MVFR across the north Wednesday afternoon. VFR conditions Downeast, and MVFR conditions in snow showers across the north, can be expected Wednesday night through Thursday. Mainly VFR conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds over. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 7 PM Update...we lowered the SCA for hzrds seas for the outer MZs that was currently in effect and included the inner bay/harbor MZ052 in the gale wrng already in effect for outer MZs 050-051 slated for late Tue aftn into the subsequent ovrngt. Orgnl Disc...A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, though midnight. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels on the intracoastal waters tonight. Gale conditions are expected to develop later Tuesday afternoon across much of the waters. SHORT TERM: A southerly gale is likely ovr our waters Tuesday evening. Winds will diminish as the low lifts up across the area. Winds will increase again to gale on the offshore waters and a SCA on the intracoastal waters in gusty westerly winds Wednesday into Thursday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ002. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ001-003-004-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ005-006-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ015>017. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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