Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 302300 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 700 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly move northeast of the region through the weekend. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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7 pm update... Sfc hipres stretched acrs srn Quebec into CWA this evening. Winds are near calm everywhere with high cirrus continuing to stream in fm the south. Temps hv dipped into the 50s in most of the area with dwpts rmng arnd 40F. Current mins look good so no reason to chg them with this update. Still expecting patchy rvr vly fog to develop again twd mrng tho not quite as extensive with cld cvr. Expect rain chcs to hold off acrs coastal zones until mid-mrng Sat. Prev discussion blo... The models are in good agreement through the period. A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather for the area through the forecast period. A low over northern Kentucky with a frontal system extending east into the north Atlantic through the Cape Cod area. The warm front will continue to move north through the period, and by the end of the period will be over southwestern Maine, and the Gulf of Maine. The GFS shows a secondary low forming on the front near Cape Cod at the end of the period. The ECMWF show the low in the same area 6 hours later. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night while high pressure remains ridged across the region. The low will bring rain to Downeast areas Saturday night, with the better chances near the coast. High pressure will keep partly cloudy skies across northern areas Saturday night. The upper low will move from the Great Lakes toward western New England Sunday. Generally expect mostly cloudy skies Downeast Sunday, with partly cloudy skies across northern areas. Could also have a slight chance of showers across the region Sunday. The remnants of the upper low cross the region Sunday night through Monday. Generally expect mostly cloudy skies across the region Sunday night through Monday, though cloud cover could begin to decrease across northern areas later Monday. Expect a slight chance/chance of showers across northern areas Sunday night into Monday, with a chance of showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Looks to be dry and seasonal as the Omega block continues to hold. Low pres and upper trof are forecast to lift to the e Monday night w/any leftover rainfall skirting the coast. Using a blend of the long range guidance, decision was to push back on the pops to less than 30% for immediate coast Monday night. High pres is then projected to build across the New England region Tuesday into Thursday w/dry weather and near seasonal temps. The next chance of rain could come Friday mainly along our southern areas. Still a ways out to get caught up in any discussion on Hurricane Matthew attm. Still at least 8-9 beyond the forecast cycle. Plenty of time to see how the system reacts to the upper level pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR expected with mid-high bkn cigs acrs terminals tonight. May see MVFR/IFR vsbys restrictions briefly at CAR, PQI and HUL between 09z and 12z. Lower cigs will hold off across southern terminals until after 00z as airmass will take awhile to saturate. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Downeast Saturday night through early Sunday, with generally VFR conditions across northern areas. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region Sunday afternoon. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday night through Monday, though occasional MVFR conditions are possible. VFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday/Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the period. Winds will be 10 to 15 kts and seas around 2 to 4 ft at the start of the period. A frontal system will push into the Gulf of Maine waters tomorrow afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to build towards the end of the period, but will remain below SCA criteria. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Saturday night through Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in showers and patchy fog Saturday night into Sunday, with still a chance of showers Sunday night into Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Norton Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Farrar/Norton/Norcross Marine...Farrar/Norton/Norcross

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