Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010149 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 949 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build into the region late tonight and Wednesday, and will move east of the area Thursday. Low pressure will pass to the north of the area Friday sending a cold front into the Saint Lawrence River Valley Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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950 PM Update: Lgt shwrs cont to diminish in cvrg across nrn ptns of the FA late this eve, so we will cont with isold cvr til about mdngt. Based on the progression of cld break-up...we did tm shft clrg to nrn and cntrl ptns of the FA about 2 hrs quicker then the prev fcst. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps were updated thru the remainder of the ovrngt from bias trends seen with 8-9pm obs from the prior fcst at these attm...unchgd fcst lows posted at 5am. Orgnl Disc: The strongest storm of the day is currently passing across the border. After that, it seems like we will mostly have lingering showers and perhaps few rumbles of thunder through the rest of the afternoon as CAPE is likely dropping in the cold pool behind these storms. Broad high pressure moving will move across the CWA from Canada overnight into Wednesday, leading to crashing dewpoints and clearing skies over the next 18 hours. Behind the front, Wednesday looks like a rather pleasant and seasonably warm day across the state.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Wednesday night...high pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A southerly flow on the backside of the high will advect some stratocumulus into the area on Thursday and the onshore flow will keep highs along the coast in the lower 50s. Further inland...most areas outside of the Down East region will measure highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. The cool maritime air spreads over the entire area on Thursday night with low clouds and fog under a frontal inversion. Rain will arrive later Thursday night with a warm front and associated weak shortwave aloft. There will be some instability aloft and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out towards Aroostook County but have not added this to the grids right now. The warm front will not make it cleanly through the area for Friday. The result will be coastal fog and low clouds under the frontal inversion most of the day...especially towards the coast. This will generate another chilly day for the Down East region with highs in the low to mid 50s. The frontal inversion will break in the western mountains on Friday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s and the threat of afternoon thunderstorms. Have introduced the chance of afternoon thunderstorms for the NW zones where some afternoon heating will occur ahead of the cold front in the warm sector. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally pleasant weather is expected this coming weekend before a large and deep storm system digging into the great lakes at the beginning of next week brings a few days of overcast and rainy weather. A corridor of dry weather between a weak upper low to our north and the approaching trough to our southwest will bring a partly sunny and seasonably warm day on Saturday. Sunday should remain dry and warm with partial sunshine. Meanwhile, the big storm system will be digging into the lakes late in the weekend and some clouds may begin to increase late in the day from this system. Forecast models are in some disagreement with how fast clouds approach with the GFS keeping skies mostly sunny on Sunday but the ECMWF and Canadian bringing clouds in more quickly from the southwest. The storm moves in Monday with clouds, increasing southeasterly winds and rain moving in from south to north. The low will very slowly move across the area through early week bringing a continuation of clouds and periods of rain and drizzle Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across the area from this system through early to mid week next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Patchy MVFR for KCAR thru KHUL for patchy shower activity this afternoon. All terminals are VFR later tonight through Wednesday as high pressure builds in. SHORT TERM: Mostly VFR Wednesday night into Thursday with the exception of a few brief periods of MVFR clgs. IFR clgs set in Thursday night for all terminals and continue through Friday. The exception will be towards GNR and FVE and points westward. This area will become VFR Friday afternoon with the chance of thunderstorms. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible later Thursday night...mostly for PQI...CAR and FVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Drier air moving in behind the front tonight with the high pressure should limit the fog chances, while also bringing calmer winds and lowering seas. No concerns for advisory level winds or seas are anticipated. SHORT TERM: Fog is the big concern...starting Thursday night and continuing Friday. Have added areas of fog to the grids for this period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.