Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011523 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA

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