Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280956 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 456 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will move east of the region today. After a partly/mostly sunny morning expect increasing clouds this afternoon. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will begin to draw a warm front north toward the region tonight. Light precipitation will expand northeast across the forecast area tonight. Across Central and Downeast areas expect a mix of rain/snow. Across northern areas expect mostly light snow with accumulations up to around an inch. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 30s north, to the mid 40s Bangor and Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s north, to the mid 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures will occur during the early morning hours then stabilize or begin to slowly warm later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Intense low pressure over the Great Lakes will move northeastward during Wednesday and pass close to the very northern portion of Maine late in the day and into the early evening. Expect precipitation to start as snow in the north then change to rain later Wednesday Morning as warmer air pushes northward to the east of the low. Colder air returns from the northwest Wednesday Night and is expected to change the rain back to snow in the north before ending. Some accumulation of snow is possible in the far north and northwest before the snow ends Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is expected to build in from the west Friday as another low pressure system passes well to the south of the State. Windy conditions are possible Saturday as low pressure intensifies over the Maritimes and strong high pressure continues to approach from the west. The high will crest over the region Sunday then move to the east into the Atlantic. Weak low pressure is expected to pass to the north Monday. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels tonight with mostly light snow across northern areas with a rain/snow mix across the remainder of the forecast area. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Wednesday into early Thursday. VFR conditions are expected late Thursday into Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, into this morning for seas. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop on the waters again tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in rain tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds through the day Thursday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. Expect increasing winds as low passes Wednesday Night into Thursday so will issue a Gale Watch. For waves: A significant southerly fetch is expected to develop from the Gulf of Maine Southward early Wednesday. This fetch will persist into the day Thursday until the fetch is broken up by the wind shift. Expect wave heights to build to a maximum of around 14 feet/10-11 seconds early Thursday then slowly subside. Wave heights are expected to be slow to subside due to the length of this fetch and should remain above 5 feet into Friday Morning. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model through the day Thursday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone

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