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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 120607
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
107 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1AM UPDATE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON.
THE BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR IS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROOSTOOK
COUNTY AND WILL REACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
BITTER COLD AND WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS AND SNOW
FLURRIES NORTH OF HOULTON AS MOISTURE FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
UNFROZEN ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOVES OVER THAT AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS COULD THEN
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 10 TO 15 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-25C AND -27C ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WIND DROPS OFF. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY ALBEIT VERY COLD DAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER WE WILL START SEEING INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH
AND 10 TO 15 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL OF
COURSE BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE HEADING NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LATEST NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT EVEN HERE THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. SO RIGHT KNOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT
A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR/KBHB...VFR EARLY THU EVE. IFR/MVFR IN SHSN
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. VFR SAT. IFR/MVFR IN SN SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. VFR MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD BE LOCALLY
REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THU NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-
     004-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...KHW/MCW/DUDA