


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --480 FXUS61 KCAR 021132 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 732 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly cross the area today. Another disturbance and cold front will cross the region Thursday. An upper level low will cross the region Friday. High pressure returns Saturday. A cold front will begin to approach later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --730 AM Update: Patchy to areas of fog from overnight continue to dissipate early this morning as the sun continues to rise and increase surface heating. A few rain showers have been detected offshore on the radar reflectivity mosaic, but the forecast area should remain dry through the morning and early afternoon. Slight adjustments made to sky cover and precip forecasts based on current observations and trends, otherwise the previous forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... During the day today, brief period of ridging occurs. Low pressure system from Tuesday moves east in the Atlantic, keeping associated rain showers to the waters. Confidence remains low on any convection firing off, so kept thunderstorms chances out of the forecast. CAPE, CIN, and shear is favorable, but PWATS and lapse rates are not impressive. No real forcing to lift parcels. Daytime highs in the mid-80s. Skies mostly cloudy in the south, and partially cloudy in the northwest. Tonight, stacked low pressure from the northwest moves into the region from Quebec. Skies clear in the north, and progressively begin to clear in central Maine overnight. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. Relatively light winds, and high relative humidity results in a potential for some coastal fog to develop. Next chance for severe weather is Thursday, as low pressure system moves into Maine. Positively tilted trough from Canada quickly deepens, going over Maine and becoming neutrally tilted during the day. Strong upper-level jet moves through the region, alongside a 40-50kt 500mb jet, as this trough deepens. CAPE values do shoot up to around 2,000-3,000J/kg in most places in northern Maine. CIN stays relatively low, mid-and-low-level lapse rates, alongside mid-level shear, are favorable for lift, which coincides with the cold front passage through the region during the day tomorrow. With skies relatively clear in the morning, could be some surface heating that could help lift parcels. During the morning into afternoon, inverted V signature with elevated DCAPE values do show a potential for some gusty winds to develop. Relatively straight hodographs favor lines of storms that could move through the area. Alongside favorable lapse rates, depth of the growth zone, and MUCAPE are favorable for some hail development. Could be looking at a potential for some severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat being wind gusts, and a slight chance for small hail. Daytime highs in the high-70s to low-80s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Aloft, an upper low will begin to approach northern areas late. Could still have the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Otherwise, expect decreasing shower chances Thursday night. The upper low crosses the region Friday. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms north, slight chance/chance Downeast, Friday. Steep lapse rates with the cold pool aloft could help support the risk of hail with any stronger thunderstorms. The upper low begins to exit Friday night. Could still have the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm early Friday night. Otherwise, expect showers will end overnight with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Generally expect mostly/partly sunny skies Saturday. However, if the cold pool aloft is slow to exit could also still have enough instability to support the slight chance of an afternoon shower across northern areas. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures Friday. Expect slightly above normal level temperatures Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front could cross the region Saturday night with a slight chance of showers mostly north. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. A cold front should begin to approach northern areas later Sunday, then begin to cross the forecast area Sunday night. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. The cold front should slowly cross the region Monday into Monday night with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The front could then stall near the Downeast coast Tuesday while low pressure moves along the front. Could still have a chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, Tuesday dependent on the proximity of the stalled front. Expect above normal level temperatures Sunday/Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Northern terminals: VFR across all terminals today and tonight, with W winds 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Winds become light and variable overnight. BGR and coastal terminals: VFR through the day today, though some BCFG early along the coast possible. W winds 5 to 10 kts, with a sea breeze along the coast shifting winds more SW this afternoon for those terminals. FG likely returns tonight, but is yet to be seen how far inland this reduction in visibility will reach. BHB likely to see some IFR/LIFR, while BGR will either maintain VFR or fall to IFR should the fog bank make it in. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...Occasional IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Chance of a thunderstorm early. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest. Friday...Variable conditions with any showers or thunderstorms, Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. West/northwest winds around 10 knots. Friday night...Occasional MVFR early with a chance of showers. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower north. West/southwest winds around 10 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Slight chance of a shower, mostly north. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria today through Thursday. Seas stay at or below 4 ft over the outer waters, and at or below 3ft for the inner waters. Winds from the SW today, becoming S by Thursday. Fog expected this morning, and late tonight. Brief rain showers on the coastal waters early this morning. Rain may return late Thursday afternoon with thunderstorms possible. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Thursday night, then again Friday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Brennan Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross Marine...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross