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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 040431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND IS HEAVY IN
SOME AREA. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY AND
WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES TOWARD MORNING. LOWERED TEMPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS DROPPED TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A ROUND OF SNOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE E
W/MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ENE PER THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES DID WARM QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30. CLOUDINESS IS THIN ATTM AND EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS THE
CLOUDS THICKEN. A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
W/A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPREADING
ACROSS NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIP WAS IN
ASSOCIATION W/A STRONG JETLET FROM 850-700MBS OF 50-60 KTS AND
WAA. THE NAM WAS HANDLING THIS SET UP WELL. THE 12Z GFS
INITIALIZED WELL BUT WAS TOO FAST ON BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL
W/WAA EVENTS SUCH AS THIS ONE, WAS IN LINE W/THE NAM. ALL THE
GUIDANCE HOWEVER WAS TOO COLD PER THE LAST 3HR TRENDS. THIS COULD
MAKE IT A CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND
THE COAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL FIRST SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST THIS EVENING AND LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATER TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT(ABOUT 2 HRS) AT THE
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS IS W/THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING(1000-700MB). IT WILL BE A FAST EVENT AND THE BEST DYNAMICS
LIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/DRY SLOTTING
PUSHING INTO THE REGION SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO
5 INCHES IS EXPECTED W/HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. A MILD DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F
ALL THE WAY TO THE CROWN OF MAINE W/LOWER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DOWEAST(BANGOR) AND THE COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO VEER TO A WSW DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND W/DEWPOINTS INT
THE TEENS AND 20S, IT APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION AND
TRUE MELTING WILL OCCUR W/COMPACTION AND SETTLING OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER THAN AVERAGE AND GENERALLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER A MILD DAY
WEDNESDAY, THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOUGH THIS
FAR OUT.

AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST MODELS DEVELOP A
WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME
MODELS PUSH THE WARM AIR EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE OTHERS HOLD ONTO THE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH CONSIDERING WE
HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SO LONG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY TO IFR W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN AT IFR INTO EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY MIDDAY TO VFR. NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR BY MID MORNING W/VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECTED
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER TONIHGT AND GUSTS COULD HIT
35 KTS FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO A 45-50 KT LLVL JET. DECIDED TO USE THE
NAM12/GFS40 BLEND FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. WAVES AREA FOREAST TO BUILD
ACCORDINGLY W/THE SSW FETCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S SETUP OF
8 TO 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWELL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP WITH WAVE GENERATION.

SHORT TERM: OFFSHORE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 7 FEET
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN, WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ002>006-010-011-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER