Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 282323 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 723 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. MAINLY ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW PTS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. DIDN`T TOUCH OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS UPDATE. CLEAR WEATHER PERSISTS. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FOR THE ALLAGASH AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GENERATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH THE TERM. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS BOTH SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY DURING THE AFERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY BY MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO AROUND 850MB. SO ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/30% POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER SUCH AS CAPES OF 700-1200 JOULES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS IS THERE ALONG W/PWATS OF 1.2-1.5 INCHES. THE LACKING FACTOR IS LAPSE RATES BEING MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). COLD FRONT HAS SOME COLDER AIR BEHIND IT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF TSTMS FOR MONDAY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS(40%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. SHEAR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE THERE TO GUSTY WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT TO BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN THINGS TURN TO A WARMER SOLUTION AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. WE ARE TALKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. MAINTAIN 6SM VIS AND BR WX TYPE NEAR SUNRISE FOR BGR, BHB, AND PQI TO ACCOUNT FOR RISK FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS BGR...GNR AND BHB NEAR SUNRISE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY W/PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FOG. ANOTHER SET OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL NEAR 2 TO 3 FEET IS ANTICIPATED WITH CONTINUED GOOD VISIBILITY AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS INTO EARLY MONDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 KTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING W/THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS DROP BACK DOWN BELOW 15 KTS BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN. SEAS TO RUN 2-4 FT AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SHORT TERM:
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN LONG TERM...HEWITT/VJN AVIATION...KREDENSOR/MCW/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...KREDENSOR/MCW/HEWITT/VJN

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