National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 280749
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
349 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough will remain to our west through mid week.
Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the
region today. Another area of low pressure may approach late
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough will move across the region today. This
will result in more showers and thunderstorms. With freezing
levels low again today, some of the thunderstorms may contain
small hail. The upper level system is then expected to move to
the east of New England with showers coming to an end by late
tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
System currently in the nrn Plains wl slowly advance east and set up
shop ovr the wrn Great Lakes by Thur mrng. Wmfnt wl stretch acrs srn
New England in the aftn with wnw flow aloft continuing in vicinity
of CWA. The morning will start out dry but as wvs ripple thru aloft
showers shud quickly dvlp by 15z. Elevated instability wl be present
in the morning and aftn hrs acrs most of the area, thus hv included
slgt chc thunder into the aftn. Instability wl be on the wane fm
west to east by mid-aftn, thus hv rmvd thunder mention fm wrn areas
drg the day but expect as wmfnt mvs thru that elevated convection wl
return to the region aft about midnight.

Warm front wl lift most of the way thru Thur night with an area of
showers along the bndry. Elevated instability looks to be marginal
thus hv only mentioned isold thunder, mainly acrs central and srn
zones. Med range guidance does not bring wmfnt into nrn zones bfr it
shift back south as a cdfnt Fri aftn. Thus hv rmvd thunder mention
fm the north drg the day on Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Frontal bndry stalls Fri evng as yet another wv dvlps back to
the west and shifts it back north as a wmfnt on Sat/Sat ngt.
Expect hichc/lkly pops drg the weekend in unstable airmass.
Cdfnt wl finally mv thru Mon morning and clr out front once and
for all. Latest guidance is now suggesting drier and cooler wx
thru mid-week tho upr-lvl trof lingers in ern Canada thru the
beginning of the work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected this morning then
VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Thu with potential for MVFR in -shra
and -tsra as warm front lifts north Thur night. Off and on MVFR
restrictions will persist through the weekend as frontal
boundary meanders back and forth over the terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids then
reduced model wind speed by 10 percent to correct bias. For
Waves: Currently, southerly swell is the primary wave system (2
feet/7-8 seconds) and is expected to dominate today and tonight.
Wind wave is expected to remain below 1 foot. Will use NWPS for
wave heights. Have also reduced the waves in the Surf Forecast
based on near shore output from NWPS.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels until
late Thu night. Winds will briefly gust to 25kts late Thu night
with seas remaining above 5 feet beginning around midnight Thu
in southerly swell into early in the weekend and possibly
beyond.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar