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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 160452
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1252 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure and
drier air will follow for Wednesday. The dry weather will
continue into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1245 AM update...The cold front is starting to make its push
into the Saint John Valley early this morning, as evidenced by
NW winds at FVE. The front will continue to slide southward
through the next several hours and should reach the coast by
dawn or shortly thereafter. Only scattered showers remain at
this hour, mainly across the north with a few also holding on
along the coast. This activity will continue to wane over the
next few hours. Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder over the
next hour or so as SPC mesoanalysis still shows a bit of
instability. Patchy fog will linger over the next few hours as
well, though expect increasing winds and decreasing dewpoints
behind the front will help it to dissipate from north to south.
Have made adjustments to PoPs, weather, and sky cover to match
current radar/satellite/observation trends. Otherwise all other
changes were minor.

Previous Discussion...
Cold front currently to our northwest across Quebec province.
The front will continue to move toward the region this evening
with showers and scattered thunderstorms expected in advance of
the front. The best chances for storms remain across northern
and western sections of the forecast area. Still couldn`t rule
out the potential for a gusty storm through late afternoon. Will
continue to reference enhanced wording for small hail and gusty
winds through sunset. Latest SPC meso analysis showing decent
shear in the 0-6 km layer, however, very little in the way of
surface based CAPE as of late this afternoon. Any lingering
showers and thunderstorms will wind down quickly this evening
with the passage of the front. Patchy fog will once again be
possible until the passage of the front with areas of fog along
the coast. Lows tonight wil range from the low 50s across the
north and upper 50s to near 60s downeast.

Much drier air will follow the passage of the cold front
Wednesday with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
Dew point temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 40s
across the north and low to mid 50s downeast. Expect partly to
mostly sunny skies north and mostly sunny skies downeast. Highs
will range from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees north and mid
70s to near 80 downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong, cold upper level low pressure will pass to our
north/northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. This will lead to
breezy conditions with the breeze out of the west/northwest, and
a dry crisp airmass. Skies will be mostly clear Wednesday night
and Thursday, except partly cloudy at times over the north
closer to the upper low.

High pressure moves overhead Thursday night with cool
temperatures. The high moves east Friday and clouds begin to
increase ahead of the next system. Chance of rain Bar Harbor,
Bangor, Moosehead regions late Friday, but most of the rain
should hold off until Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain event Friday night perhaps into early Saturday with a warm
front moving through. Looks like more of a regular steady rain
than a showery or stormy situation. Best shot at rain appears to
be over Downeast at this time. Models coming into better
agreement on the system, though model agreement still isn`t
great. Tough call on Saturday daytime as to whether the system
will have pushed off to the east or if it will be lingering.

Some showers or possibly storms Sunday afternoon, then dry and
warm Monday through Tuesday. Next potential system around
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR at
times in showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly northern
terminals. Expect VFR early to give way to IFR/LIFR in low
clouds and areas of fog, especially KBHB. Conditions improving
conditions on Wednesday with VFR expected along with Northwest
winds gusting to 25 kt at times.


SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR Wednesday night through Friday. Can`t
rule out occasional MVFR ceilings far Northern Maine Wednesday
night and Thursday. Widespread IFR likely Friday night into
early Saturday with a warm front.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Areas of fog will once again lower
visibility to 1 nm or less at times tonight, then improve with
the passage of the front early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night, long period swell arrives from
Hurricane Gert. Doesn`t appear to be too significant and
shouldn`t be enough to need any high surf advisory. It does
appear to lead to small craft level wave heights  a bit above
five feet Wednesday night into Thursday. Wind gusts to 25 kt are
also possible on Thursday (not associated with Gert).
Conditions improving Thursday night into Friday, then conditions
close to small craft possible Saturday with the next weather
system.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Hastings
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Duda/Hastings/Foisy
Marine...Duda/Hastings/Foisy