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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 161423
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1023 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region from the west
today through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM Update: Fcst hrly temps were updated into the aftn hrs
by incorporating sfc obs thru mid morn to get an updated ovrngt
low from last ngt due to strong llvl cold advcn resulting in
late mid morn lows across Downeast areas. Fcst erly aftn high
temps were then adjusted a couple of degs downward to reflect
only a 4 to 8 deg diurnal rise. Otherwise, fcst hrly dwpts and
cld cvr were also adjusted into aftn based on latest sfc obs and
sat imagery.


Orgnl Disc: The cold front will reach the coast towards 8 to 9
am. Very little precipitation is expected past 4 am this
morning. The strongest winds with the LLJ have moved east, but
there will still be sufficient winds aloft to mix down 30 to 40
mph gusts as the cold front crosses. The winds aloft continue to
decrease today, but the mixing depth increases such that north-
northwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue today.
Sufficient H925-H850 moisture exists such that widespread
cumulus and stratocumulus fields will be maintained in the
northerly flow through the day...especially in Aroostook County.
There is strong cold air advection behind this front with dew
points decreasing from the low 60s to the low to mid 20s by
later tonight. H850 temps will decrease from readings around 15
to 18C Sunday evening towards -5 to -10C on Monday night. The
strength of this cold advection means today`s highs will rise
little from the readings early this morning and start to fall
sharply later this afternoon. Apparent temperatures in northern
Aroostook will be some 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in northern Aroostook to the
upper 50s for Bangor and the coast. The ridge axis will stay
west of the area for most of night. This means winds will not
die off and allow any radiation inversions. Stratocumulus fields
may also continue to move across the area well into the night.
Nonetheless, the cold air advection will still generate lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Tuesday. Some remote
areas in the North Woods may see lower temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will cross the region Tuesday, with a warm front
approaching northern areas late. After a mostly sunny morning,
clouds will increase across northern areas during the
afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected across
central/Downeast portions of the forecast area Tuesday. The warm
front crosses the region Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies
along with a slight chance of showers are expected across
northern areas Tuesday night, with partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies across the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure
crosses the region Wednesday, then begins to exit to the east
Wednesday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected across
northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies across the
remainder of the region. Mostly clear skies are expected across
the entire region Wednesday night. Temperatures will be at near
normal levels Tuesday, with slightly above normal level
temperatures Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will cross the region early Thursday, with a cold
front crossing the region late. Generally expect partly cloudy
skies along with a slight chance of showers across northern
areas Thursday, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across
the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure will cross the
region Friday through Saturday then begin to exit across the
maritimes Sunday. Mostly clear skies are expected across the
region Friday/Saturday. Partly sunny skies are expected across
northern areas Sunday, with mostly sunny skies across the
remainder of the region. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions will move out of BHB early this
morning and be replaced by VFR conditions. Otherwise,
predominately MVFR cigs will occur north of HUL through this
evening. BGR and most sites south of HUL will be predominately
VFR today...with cigs just above 3000ft. All sites will be VFR
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions are expected across the
region Tuesday through Friday. However, occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the north and mountains Thursday
night through early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
950am update...Wv hts had to be beefed up a bit ovr the outer
waters for the morn hrs, but should subside pretty quickly by
this aftn as the axis of high wv hts from last ngt`s SW fetch
pulls out of the Gulf of ME into the open Atlc.

NEAR TERM: Gale conditions will be ending towards daybreak and
will be transitioning to an SCA for this morning. Winds will
likely die off enough during the day to prompt another
transition to an SCA for Hazardous Seas as seas will remain
above 5 feet into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible early
Tuesday, then again later Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Otherwise, conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...VJN/Norcross
Marine...VJN/Norcross