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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 111944
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT BUILD
INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TERM W/GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DISTURBANCE THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE
SATELLITE WV IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS TO BE DRYING OUT THROUGH
THE COLUMN. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS OF 2 PM WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE, LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK THROUGH
THE 40S WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING DOWNEAST. DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS
BLYR HAS BEEN DRYING OUT THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EVENING CREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE LATER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND WARMER W/READINGS
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A WSW BREEZE KICKING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. A SSW WIND ALONG
THE COAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THIS AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON CAPPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR POPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CMCREG. FOR
WIND USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT THREE HOURLY FROM THE SUPER BLEND. THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL AND THE MINIMUM
FROM THE SUPER BLEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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EXPECT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY RESULTING IN SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO TUE SAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND FOR
ALL GRIDS... AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY
COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS OR
SO W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT AT BEST W/A SWELL COMPONENT DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR SUSTAINED WIND
GRIDS...BUT WILL REDUCE SPEED BY 20 PERCENT DUE TO EXPECTED
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS SUNDAY
AND INCREASES IN DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUES UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO BE FACTOR WITH THIS FETCH ACROSS GULF OF
MAINE...HOWEVER WITH HE FETCH EXTENDING ACROSS WARMER WATER TO
SOUTH THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WAVES 7+ FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY LATER
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE WNA/4.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE