Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190920 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS. OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA. ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS. THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY... WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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