Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300110 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 910 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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910 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 06Z ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING CREW. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST. STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED... && .CLIMATE... CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS CLIMATE...CB

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