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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 172247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 1835L: WEAK LOW OVR NRN MAINE ATTM W/ ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
XTNDG SWWRD ACROSS NWRN NEW ENGLAND. REMNANTS OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ A PRE-FRONTAL TROF JUST NOW EXITING OUR
SRN COAST AND WATERS. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW ISOLD GARDEN VARIETY
TSTMS ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS W/ A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SHORT TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENUF
SBCAPE TO WARRANT CONTD MENTION OF ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS E AND SE
THRU 00Z W/ ALL PRECIP DCRSG IN COVERAGE THRU THE EVE HRS. ADJUSTED
POPS TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS/ADJUSTED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND REMOVED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING AS APPEARS THIS
THREAT HAS MOSTLY PASSED ATTM...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NB TONIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z TUE. DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST SBCAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG A
THETA-E RIDGE WITH THE GREATEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THE MUCAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS BUT QUICKLY DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN HOLDING TOUGH AND
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WIND/HAIL WAS REMOVED FROM ZONES 1
THROUGH 3...BUT STILL LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT WOULD STILL APPEAR
THAT THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS BY
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR EVEN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. DURING THE DAY TUE AN UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUE PM ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD, KEEPING THE PINE TREE STATE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME. THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. BY THEN, THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE TO OUR EAST, WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE OWING TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS SUCH, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD DOES START OUT UNSETTLED WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH SHORTWAVE AND BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ON FRIDAY WHEN BETTER
LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIVERGENCE AFTER THAT WITH 06Z GFS
BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND 00Z
ECMWF DOES BRING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION OFF THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 12Z GFS ALSO BRINGS
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE 06Z GFS WANTS TO HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
AND THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEPS IT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
TRY TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR NORMAL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS LIKELY TO BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT.  LOW STRATUS
HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO LIFT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS STILL MVFR. THERE MAYBE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KBGR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS
AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS
STRATUS/FOG TO FORM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR AT
BY MID MORNING TUE. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TUE
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY EVENING, BUT
THESE SHOULD LIFT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SOME TAF SITES MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY IFR FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT IN LONG PERIOD S-SE SWELL THROUGH
TUE.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/CB/HASTINGS