Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 242342 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 642 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 1840 EST: SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO REPORT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THE REST OF EASTERN MAINE REPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED DUE TO FOG GENERATED BY RAIN FALLING ON A DEEP SNOW PACK. HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR GALE CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND FLOOD AND WIND CONCERNS INLAND. WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY... STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM. LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE. BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: TNGT AND THU MORN WILL FEATURE VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES IN LOW CLGS...FOG AND RN...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTN. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH ONGOING GLW WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE TNGT AS SE TO S WINDS INCREASE AND REMAINS SO THRU ALL OF THU DAY AS WINDS VEER FROM S TO WSW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THU AFTN. WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THU FOR THIS FCST UPDATE. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH- UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 48F AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-031-032. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA HYDROLOGY...VJN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN CLIMATE...VJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.