Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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461 FXUS61 KCAR 220532 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1232 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain north of the area tonight and Monday. Low pressure will approach Monday night. The low will track west of the area on Tuesday as a weak secondary low forms over northern Maine. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update 12:30 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point, and winds based on latest observations. No other changes. Previous discussion... The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A Canadian High pressure ridge will be over the area at the start of the period. A low in the central MidWest with a warm front extending east into the eastern Great Lake region at the start of the period will move east. Higher clouds will build across the Bangor and the western portions of Downeast Maine tonight into tomorrow as the warm front approaches from the west. Tomorrow the Downeast and Interior Downeast will see mostly cloudy skies mainly mid and high clouds while the northern portions of the state will remain mostly clear, under the high pressure ridge. The approaching warm front will move into SW Maine at the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool 20%, 26% for the coastal waters. For QPF used GFS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be anchored over Quebec Monday night as a large area of low pressure lifts north into the Great Lakes region. The low will be pulling a warm front north into the area with snow spreading Downeast early Monday evening and reaching the north late Monday evening. By early Tuesday morning significant snow will be falling over the north and precipitation will have changed to rain Downeast and sleet over central areas. Warm air surging in aloft will change precipitation over to sleet and freezing rain even across northern Maine around midday Tuesday. The NAM, ECMWF and GFS models all show a weak secondary low forming over north central Maine Tuesday afternoon. The location of this secondary low may allow cold air to remain at the surface over the far north keeping precipitation as sleet or a mix of sleet and freezing rain across northern Aroostook county with a change to all rain likely from central Aroostook county on south. Up to an inch and a half of rain may fall Downeast. The combination of the rain and snow melt may cause flooding on streams and rivers. Of particular concern is the ice jams that are locked in place on some rivers which could cause further ice jams if river rises result in movement of ice. A dry intrusion surging in from the southwest will end precipitation early Tuesday evening. Cold air will return Tuesday night. A trailing upper level shortwave will likely bring continued snow showers over the north with another inch or two likely across the far north Tuesday night. This will lift out Wednesday morning. The rest of the day Wednesday will be cold and dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold upper level trough will push across the area Thursday bringing cold weather with a mostly cloudy sky and some snow showers over the north and a partly cloudy sky Downeast. Friday will remain cold and become sunny as high pressure builds over. Clouds will increase Saturday as high pressure slides offshore and a weak low lifts to our northwest. Some snow north and rain downeast is possible late Saturday night into Sunday. A secondary low may then approach Sunday night as cold air returns bringing a chance of snow. Cold dry weather should follow for early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected through 00z Tue at the northern terminals. VFR at KBGR and KBHB this evening will likely lower to MVFR around 09Z in areas of -sn. The ceilings may improve to VFR for a time late Monday morning or early in the afternoon before lowering to MVFR again toward 00z Tue. SHORT TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR Downeast early Monday evening then IFR across the north late Monday evening. LIFR conditions in low clouds and mixed precipitation are expected late Monday night through Tuesday. Conditions will improve to MVFR Downeast Tuesday night and remain IFR across the north. An improvement to VFR is expected from south to north on Wednesday. VFR conditions Downeast and MVFR conditions over the north are expected on Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure builds across the region and will remain through the period. Winds and Seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. SHORT TERM: A gale watch is up for strong south winds Tuesday into Tuesday night as low pressure lifts to our west. Seas may build up to 12-16 ft in response to the south wind late Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Precipitation QPF Downeast is expected to approach 1.5 inches Monday night into Tuesday, most of which will be rain. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt will result in rising rivers and streams, especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Concern is that some ice jams from the last thaw remain locked in place due to a quick freeze following the last melt. Any ice movement could result in more ice jams building upon the ones that are already in place. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for MEZ001-002. Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ANZ050-051.
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