Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 191405
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
905 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will
build in from the west tonight and Monday then crest over the area
Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --9AM Update...Increased highs for today and adjusted cloud
cover...mostly for tonight to reflect a secondary cold front
later tonight and for tomorrow to show stratocu fields towards
the eastern border of the state.
Orgnl Disc: latest radar ref still shows flurries and lgt sn
shwrs sliding across the N from Ern QB. This shwr activity will
remain isold to sct into the late morn hrs, then increase in
cvrg across the N and Cntrl ptns of the region by aftn ahead of
the next s/wv supporting a cold front. Sfc-BL temps, however,
will likely not support all sn shwrs by aftn xcpt for hi trrn
across the N, resulting in a reduction of sn accumulation if
these shwrs were all sn. More intense shwrs ahead of the cold
front could transition back to all sn due to brief cnvctv
cooling. Forecast QPF tdy and this eve was blended toward the
00z CANGem Reg model run which performs well with cold frontal
and post cold frontal shwr activity across our region.
Behind the cold front, sn shwrs should end W to E across Nrn and
Cntrl ptns of the region late tngt as the last mid lvl s/wv
trof crosses the region into NB prov...followed by cooler and
more brisk NNW wind conditions. Aft very mild hi temps this
aftn, ovrngt temps will trend toward cooler fcst lows behind the
cold front, but will still be abv seasonal norms.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building in from the northwest will bring a brisk
north wind and increasing sunshine on Monday with high temps near
normal. The high will then build over the area Monday night bringing
a clear night with diminishing winds. Temperatures will drop to near
zero or below in some of the colder valleys across the northwest.
Tuesday will then be mostly sunny and tranquil with high pressure
across the region. Some mid and high clouds may increase late in the
day Tuesday ahead of a weak occlusion approaching from the west.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moving across central Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday will pull an occlusion across the area with clouds and a
slight chance for some snow showers. Temperatures Wednesday will be
a few degrees above normal reaching near or above freezing in most
areas. A weak weather system crossing the region Thursday will bring
another chance of some light rain or snow, mostly across the north.
The center of the low tracking across the northern part of our area
will allow temps to rise above freezing. A weak cold front will push
through Thursday night. However, the air will remain relatively mild
behind the front on Friday with highs again above freezing in most
areas. Our focus going into next weekend will be on a large storm
which most models are tracking well to our northwest. This would
bring a warmup with some rain likely as the system pulls an
occlusion across the region.
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Nrn TAF sites will be low VFR or high MVFR for clgs
tdy into this eve, with intermittent MVFR and even IFR clgs in
sn/rn shwrs...then becoming all VFR late tngt. Downeast sites
will be VFR both tdy and tngt.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area. VFR to MVFR conditions are
likely Tuesday night as a weak front pushes across. MVFR
conditions will likely return to VFR on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be mainly below SCA tdy and tngt
with winds increasing back toward SCA very late tngt. Cannot
rule out brief pds of 5 to 6 ft seas ovr the outer MZs due a
srly component wind direction. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
SHORT TERM: An SCA for north winds gusting up to 25 kt may be
needed on Monday. Winds should then diminish Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area. Winds should
remain below SCA on Wednesday.