Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191405 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 905 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Monday then crest over the area Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9AM Update...Increased highs for today and adjusted cloud cover...mostly for tonight to reflect a secondary cold front later tonight and for tomorrow to show stratocu fields towards the eastern border of the state. Orgnl Disc: latest radar ref still shows flurries and lgt sn shwrs sliding across the N from Ern QB. This shwr activity will remain isold to sct into the late morn hrs, then increase in cvrg across the N and Cntrl ptns of the region by aftn ahead of the next s/wv supporting a cold front. Sfc-BL temps, however, will likely not support all sn shwrs by aftn xcpt for hi trrn across the N, resulting in a reduction of sn accumulation if these shwrs were all sn. More intense shwrs ahead of the cold front could transition back to all sn due to brief cnvctv cooling. Forecast QPF tdy and this eve was blended toward the 00z CANGem Reg model run which performs well with cold frontal and post cold frontal shwr activity across our region. Behind the cold front, sn shwrs should end W to E across Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the region late tngt as the last mid lvl s/wv trof crosses the region into NB prov...followed by cooler and more brisk NNW wind conditions. Aft very mild hi temps this aftn, ovrngt temps will trend toward cooler fcst lows behind the cold front, but will still be abv seasonal norms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure building in from the northwest will bring a brisk north wind and increasing sunshine on Monday with high temps near normal. The high will then build over the area Monday night bringing a clear night with diminishing winds. Temperatures will drop to near zero or below in some of the colder valleys across the northwest. Tuesday will then be mostly sunny and tranquil with high pressure across the region. Some mid and high clouds may increase late in the day Tuesday ahead of a weak occlusion approaching from the west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure moving across central Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday will pull an occlusion across the area with clouds and a slight chance for some snow showers. Temperatures Wednesday will be a few degrees above normal reaching near or above freezing in most areas. A weak weather system crossing the region Thursday will bring another chance of some light rain or snow, mostly across the north. The center of the low tracking across the northern part of our area will allow temps to rise above freezing. A weak cold front will push through Thursday night. However, the air will remain relatively mild behind the front on Friday with highs again above freezing in most areas. Our focus going into next weekend will be on a large storm which most models are tracking well to our northwest. This would bring a warmup with some rain likely as the system pulls an occlusion across the region. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Nrn TAF sites will be low VFR or high MVFR for clgs tdy into this eve, with intermittent MVFR and even IFR clgs in sn/rn shwrs...then becoming all VFR late tngt. Downeast sites will be VFR both tdy and tngt. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area. VFR to MVFR conditions are likely Tuesday night as a weak front pushes across. MVFR conditions will likely return to VFR on Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be mainly below SCA tdy and tngt with winds increasing back toward SCA very late tngt. Cannot rule out brief pds of 5 to 6 ft seas ovr the outer MZs due a srly component wind direction. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for this update. SHORT TERM: An SCA for north winds gusting up to 25 kt may be needed on Monday. Winds should then diminish Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area. Winds should remain below SCA on Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCW Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/MCW/Bloomer Marine...VJN/MCW/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.