Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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073 FXUS61 KCAR 020916 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 516 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly cross the area today. Another disturbance and cold front will cross the region Thursday. An upper level low will cross the region Friday. High pressure returns Saturday. A cold front will begin to approach later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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5:10AM Update...Dense fog out in coastal Washington county has dissipated, lifting the Dense Fog advisory early. Fog developing in valleys and coastal areas this morning, reducing visibility sporadically. Some areas are experiencing ground fog that has been moving in and out. Since fog in relatively shallow, should burn off as sun continues to rise. Updated Thursday PoPs to have the starting a little alter in the morning period. Otherwise, previous forecast on track. Updated aviation section. Previous Discussion... During the day today, brief period of ridging occurs. Low pressure system from Tuesday moves east in the Atlantic, keeping associated rain showers to the waters. Confidence remains low on any convection firing off, so kept thunderstorms chances out of the forecast. CAPE, CIN, and shear is favorable, but PWATS and lapse rates are not impressive. No real forcing to lift parcels. Daytime highs in the mid-80s. Skies mostly cloudy in the south, and partially cloudy in the northwest. Tonight, stacked low pressure from the northwest moves into the region from Quebec. Skies clear in the north, and progressively begin to clear in central Maine overnight. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. Relatively light winds, and high relative humidity results in a potential for some coastal fog to develop. Next chance for severe weather is Thursday, as low pressure system moves into Maine. Positively tilted trough from Canada quickly deepens, going over Maine and becoming neutrally tilted during the day. Strong upper-level jet moves through the region, alongside a 40-50kt 500mb jet, as this trough deepens. CAPE values do shoot up to around 2,000-3,000J/kg in most places in northern Maine. CIN stays relatively low, mid-and-low-level lapse rates, alongside mid-level shear, are favorable for lift, which coincides with the cold front passage through the region during the day tomorrow. With skies relatively clear in the morning, could be some surface heating that could help lift parcels. During the morning into afternoon, inverted V signature with elevated DCAPE values do show a potential for some gusty winds to develop. Relatively straight hodographs favor lines of storms that could move through the area. Alongside favorable lapse rates, depth of the growth zone, and MUCAPE are favorable for some hail development. Could be looking at a potential for some severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat being wind gusts, and a slight chance for small hail. Daytime highs in the high-70s to low-80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Aloft, an upper low will begin to approach northern areas late. Could still have the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Otherwise, expect decreasing shower chances Thursday night. The upper low crosses the region Friday. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms north, slight chance/chance Downeast, Friday. Steep lapse rates with the cold pool aloft could help support the risk of hail with any stronger thunderstorms. The upper low begins to exit Friday night. Could still have the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm early Friday night. Otherwise, expect showers will end overnight with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Generally expect mostly/partly sunny skies Saturday. However, if the cold pool aloft is slow to exit could also still have enough instability to support the slight chance of an afternoon shower across northern areas. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures Friday. Expect slightly above normal level temperatures Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front could cross the region Saturday night with a slight chance of showers mostly north. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. A cold front should begin to approach northern areas later Sunday, then begin to cross the forecast area Sunday night. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. The cold front should slowly cross the region Monday into Monday night with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The front could then stall near the Downeast coast Tuesday while low pressure moves along the front. Could still have a chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, Tuesday dependent on the proximity of the stalled front. Expect above normal level temperatures Sunday/Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Terminals in-and-out of clear skies and some passing low level clouds. Fog has been developing and moving through the terminals sporadically, reducing visibility significantly to IFR/LIFR conditions at times. Most of the fog seems to be ground fog, which should begin to burn off as the sun comes up. Partially cloudy to clear skies tomorrow, with a slight chance of some showers in the Crown of Maine. Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts, becoming W by this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kt possible. KBGR/KBHB: Fog development early this morning, reducing visibility to IFR/LIFR conditions. Today, mostly to partially cloudy skies with high level clouds. Winds from the SW this morning, becoming W later this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...Occasional IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Chance of a thunderstorm early. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest. Friday...Variable conditions with any showers or thunderstorms, Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. West/northwest winds around 10 knots. Friday night...Occasional MVFR early with a chance of showers. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower north. West/southwest winds around 10 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Slight chance of a shower, mostly north. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria today and tomorrow. Seas stay at or below 4 ft over the outer waters, and at or below 3ft for the inner waters. Winds from the SW today, becoming S by Thursday. Fog expected this morning, and late tonight. Rain showers currently this morning, and next chance for rain late tonight. Could see some rain tomorrow afternoon into evening. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Thursday night, then again Friday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Brennan Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Brennan/Norcross Marine...Brennan/Norcross