Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021400 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 900 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A surface boundary will cross the area tonight bringing snow showers to central areas. An upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday with high pressure building in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update... No significant changes to going forecast. Prev discussion blo... Lopres which brought the foot+ of snow to nrn Maine has pushed into the Maritimes with nw flow rmng in its wake. Secondary low sitting ovr sw Quebec as of 07z with parent UL low in same general location. With system being vertically stacked just a slow drift to the east is expected tda, meaning contd nw flow, cldy skies acrs the nw along with flurries. S/wv ridging wl briefly build in this aftn for most of the CWA, outside of the far NW. Hv included light snow showers in upslope areas acrs this region with little expected elsewhere. As upr low begins to open up and eject twd the CWA tonight, guidance is suggesting snow streamers btwn 00z and 09z. Thus hv bumped pops up to hichc acrs cntrl areas as convergent area sets up fm the Allagash area down twd Houlton. Snow accums on the order of an inch or two cannot be ruled out acrs cntrl areas tonight. Temps wl be nr normal once again acrs the north and slightly abv normal in Downeast this aftn. Given extensive cld cvr tonight, temps wl be cldr than this mrng but still well abv normal for this time of yr.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rather benign weather is expected for the weekend. A weak upper shortwave will bring snow showers to the region Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain of the North Woods. Minor snow accumulations of less than an inch are possible. The upper wave exits by early Sunday morning, making way for high pressure and a cold Canadian airmass. After Saturday`s daytime highs around 30 in the north and in the mid and upper 30s Downeast, Saturday night will be on the chilly side as temperatures dip into the teens to lower 20s night. While most locations will see increasing sunshine on Sunday, highs will only top out in the lower/mid 20s north and the lower 30s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry but cold weather is expected through much of next week as high pressure slowly builds across New England. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below normal through Wednesday; Sunday night and Monday night will be quite chilly with lows only in the single digits across much of northern Aroostook County. The high will finally move to our east Wednesday, allowing temps to return to normal as the region will be under southwest flow. The next chance of precipitation arrives sometime thereafter; the GFS and ECMWF differ by 12-24 hours on the start time for the next event. However, at this time it looks like it could be another mixed precipitation event; the latest GFS takes the low to our north and brings rain all the way into the Crown of Maine. The 01/12z ECMWF meanwhile is the slower and colder of the models, keeping us dry until later Thursday and keeping at best a wintry mix over the north. Have stayed close to a model blend given these differences. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Ocnl MVFR at northern terminals this mrng. Off and on MVFR cigs will be present this afternoon at all but BHB where VFR restrictions will prevail. Terminals north of HUL will likely see MVFR snow showers overnight. MVFR and ocnl IFR conditions expected at FVE, CAR and PQI through 12z this morning. After this time, expect these terminals will settle out at MVFR with cigs btwn 015-025 the majority of the day in nw flow. -SHSN will occur after 00z as another weak disturbance moves through. HUL will likely be VFR through 00z tonight before MVFR -shsn moves in for the nighttime hours. BGR and BHB will likely be VFR next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: The southern terminals are expected to see prevailing VFR conditions through the period, though occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible Saturday and Saturday night. The northern sites will likely be MVFR 12z Saturday through 12z Sunday due to ceilings. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected 16z Sat through 04z Sun, and these may produce IFR conditions. High pressure will allow ceilings to lift to VFR at the northern terminals after 12z Sun and this will remain the pattern through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have dropped SCA for intracoastal zone this morning. With seas still above 5ft through the afternoon and winds btwn 20-25 kts expected, will extend SCA for outer waters thru 21z today. May see outer waters appch marginal advisory levels Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: Marginal Small Craft conditions are possible Saturday afternoon and night as winds remain around 20 kt in cold air advection. High pressure will build over the waters Sunday, allowing winds to subside somewhat. The high will keep quiet conditions over the waters through the middle of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings

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