National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 271853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY