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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS