Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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137 FXUS61 KCAR 231447 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1047 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then move east Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 900 AM update...No significant changes were needed this morning; the main impetus behind this update was to expire the Wind Chill Advisory since temperatures have risen enough to allow wind chills to go above -20F. No other adjustments were needed. Previous Discussion... High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then begin to move east of the region later tonight. Mostly sunny skies and below normal level temperatures will occur across the forecast area today. The pressure gradient between low pressure across the maritimes and building high pressure will keep gusty northwest winds today with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for northern Maine until 9 AM this morning for wind chills of 20 to 25 below zero. After a mostly clear evening, cloud cover will increase overnight. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range through the single digits above zero north, to around 10 interior Downeast with 10 to 15 along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure will move off the East Coast Friday Morning. A strong southwesterly flow will develop behind the departing high pressure system. Expect overrunning precipitation to develop during the day Friday and continue into the evening. The precipitation is expected to start as snow everywhere but will change to rain in the south by early afternoon Friday as warm air spreads northward. Precipitation will likely change to rain in central areas during the afternoon but should remain all snow across the far north. Snow will then end Friday night as a cold front moves through. Heaviest QPF amounts are expected to be in the south where precipitation is expected to be mostly rain. Strong high pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure will build in from the northwest into Sunday. At the same time low pressure will move northward towards the Great Lakes. Expect overrunning precipitation to spread northward Monday as high pressure moves away to the northeast. Looks like light precipitation could linger into Tuesday. Another area of low pressure is then expected to move to the west of New England bringing additional rain and snow to the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will occur across the region today through tonight. Northwest winds will remain gusty today with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday. VFR conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 1045 AM update...Winds have dropped below 35 kt this morning. They will continue to gust to 30 kt through this evening, then drop below 25 kt after midnight. Have therefore cancelled the Gale Warning and issued a Small Craft Advisory which is in effect until midnight tonight. The Freezing Spray Advisory has also been cancelled as only light icing is expected through the remainder of today. Previous discussion...A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters this morning. Small craft advisory level conditions are then expected this afternoon into tonight. A Freezing Spray Advisory for moderate freezing spray is also in effect for the waters this morning. Light freezing spray is expected this afternoon into tonight. SHORT TERM: For sustained winds will use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF then transition to the Superblend winds Saturday Night. For Waves: Expect a southwesterly fetch to develop across the Gulf of Maine Friday behind departing high pressure. Wind waves in this fetch are expected to build to 8 feet/7-8 seconds by early Friday Evening then go off-shore Saturday. Seas will subside Saturday and Sunday as winds diminish and go off-shore. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.