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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 060259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHILE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 PM UPDATE...TEMPS ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY
WITH REPORTS OF JUST WET ROADS IN ST FRANCIS. TEMPS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DAMMING
AGAINST THE TERRAIN ARE STILL NEAR FREEZING. AS THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT WILL DROP ALL OF THE REMAINING
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 09Z. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST RAIN. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL
BE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THE
SET UP IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE WITH THE WARMER AIR OVER GROUND THAT
HAS SOME WET SNOWPACK. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE DENSE FOG WILL
BE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS ONLY SPOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SCOUR OUT REMAINING COLD AIR POCKETS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
AND EXPECT TO END THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES BY 7PM. THE
INTRODUCTION OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD GROUND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.  THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A STEADIER RAIN WILL
DEVELOP WITH AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
EXIT DOWN EAST FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL BE RECORDED IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PLACED TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY SCRAPE THE COASTAL AND DOWNEAST ZONES. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. BOUNDARY WILL EXIT SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST WITH COLDER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SETTING UP SATURDAY
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR MORE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED ACROSS MAINE THE WINDS WILL START DROPPING
OFF LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SW TO NE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURE INITIALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DOUBLE BARREL LOW
SETTING UP MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND GENERALLY NEAR
MASSACHUSETTS. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL AID IN BRINGING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN
LIKELY POPS REGION WIDE LATER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE OFF TO THE NE FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET SOME MIXING TO
THE SOUTH AND ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH ACCUMULATIONS.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING BREEZY
AND COLDER AIR TO PROGRESS INTO THE AREA AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND SINGLE NEGATIVES IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VLIFR TO IFR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT KFVE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
BGR/BHB FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. ALL OTHER
SITES LOOK TO STAY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY
BE AFFECTED BY REDUCED CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS LOW PROGRESSES NE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY BUILDING AND AROUND 5-6 FT
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ON WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM AND STABLE AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLY NEEDED LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/MCW/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/MCW/JORDAN