Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211738 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1238 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today through tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine. Low pressure will approach Monday night then cross the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1240 PM Update...Made minor adjustments to hourly temperatures. Otherwise no significant changes to previous forecast. Previous Discussion... A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine today while high pressure builds toward the region. The stalled front will remain across the Gulf of Maine tonight while high pressure builds across the region. Generally expect partly sunny skies across the region today. Moisture will increase along the stalled front tonight producing mostly cloudy skies across much of the forecast area. Isolated snow showers are also possible across western portions of the forecast area later tonight. Partly cloudy skies are expected across extreme northern portions of the forecast area tonight closer to high pressure. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to the mid 20s north, to the lower to mid 30s interior Downeast with mid to upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around zero north, to the mid to upper teens interior Downeast with upper teens to lower 20s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Strong high pressure is expected to crest over the region early Monday morning, then move to the east. A warm front will approach the region later in the day resulting in snow overspreading the region from southwest to northeast. The snow is expected to change to mixed precipitation late Monday night across coastal and southern areas as warmer air moves in aloft. Mixed precipitation will then spread to the north Monday afternoon as precipitation becomes all rain in central and southern areas. For QPF have blended the GFS and ECMWF. Have used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF for precipitation type. The snow ratio blender was used for snow amounts. Expect the low to move to the north of the region Tuesday Night. All precipitation will end as snow showers Tuesday night as colder air moves in behind the low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Intense low pressure will move northeast across the Maritimes Wednesday as it move away from the region. It will continue to produce strong gusty winds across the region into early Thursday. Strong high pressure will build in from the west later Thursday and Friday. This high will then crest over the area early Saturday morning then move to the east. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region today through much of tonight. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible across central and Downeast areas late tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions early Monday then IFR conditions Monday night and Tuesday. Expect VFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... .Update 942 AM...Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. Winds and Seas have both subsided below SCA criteria. NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, through 10 AM. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft advisory levels on all the waters this afternoon through tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids. Expect increasing southeasterly winds as intense low pressure passes west of New England late Tuesday. For waves: Expect northeasterly wind wave (2 feet/4 seconds) to be the primary wave system Monday. A strong southeasterly fetch will develop Tuesday extending from the Gulf of Maine well to the south. This fetch is expected to persist into early Wednesday when it will be broken up by a wind shift. Expect off-shore wave heights to build to 15-20 feet/10 seconds by late in the day Tuesday. This wave system should subside to around 8 feet by late Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone

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