Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270817 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 417 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure will remain to our west through mid week. Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the area this afternoon and again on Wednesday. A larger area of low pressure may approach late Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A surface and upper level system will approach from the west today. Conditions are unstable enough for thunderstorms to develop across northern and central areas this afternoon and continue into the evening. Have used enhanced wording for forecast in these areas into this evening. Heavier rain is also possible in some of the storms. Showers are expected to continue through the night as the system nears the western portion of the state by early morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upr lvl s/wv wl be lifting acrs the north Wed mrng. As it does so expect showers by the start of the pd ovr the Crown with dvlpmnt of showers acrs most of the CWA in the aftn. Airmass wl destabilize enuf with steep mid-lvl lapse rates expected drg the aftn to include chc thunder for most of the area with the possible exception of coastal zones trapped in the marine lyr, tho cannot rule out elevated convection along the coast. High temps expected to be blo normal once again with l70s for srn zones (with exception of the coast) and m/u 60s in the north. H5 trof wl be mvg east Wed night with little in the way of pcpn expected ovrngt due to NVA. Expect the next chc for pcpn wl mv in mainly on Thur aftn, tho may see sctd showers dvlp in the mrng in warm advection as wmfnt appchs. Cannot rule out thunder acrs the north Thu aftn as yet another s/wv zips thru but due to discrepancies in med range guidance wl only keep pcpn worded as showers for the time being.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Models hv differing solns for the end of the week with NAM bringing compact low thru Downeast Fri mrng with GFS hanging low back acrs srn Ontario with just warm advection showers/thunder expected. EC and CMC similar to GFS with low hanging back to the west. All in all an unsettled wx pattern to end out the week and thru the weekend as hard-to-time wvs zip along bndrys.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions this morning then MVFR/IFR conditions later today and tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR possible Wed morning at BGR and BHB in low clouds and fog. MVFR/VFR possible further to the north with occasional MVFR in the afternoon in showers and possible -tsra. Mostly VFR expected on Thursday thought cannot rule out brief MVFR restriction in the afternoon in stray shower. Unsettled wx pattern will bring occasional MVFR conditions to all terminals thru Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have initialized the wind grids with the NAM. Will lower the model winds by 10 percent to account for relatively cold sea surface temperature. For Waves: The primary wave system will continue to be long period southwesterly swell around 2 feet/7-8 seconds. A secondary south to southwesterly wind wave less than 1 foot will persist through tonight. Have used the NWPS model for wave heights. Will use NWPS output near surf zone for wave heights in surf zone forecast. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels until Thur night in sswrly swell. Fog will limit visibilities over the water Wed morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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