Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290325 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4 PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25" OF RAIN FELL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY CLIMATE...CB

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