Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 291421 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1015 AM UPDATE...12Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWS WAS VERY DRY AIR THIS MORNING. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHNAGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE TODAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL STRAY INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LATE MARCH SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND INCREASING CLOUDS, FORECAST LOWS ARE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWEST OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT REGARDING WHETHER A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE STALLING OR STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OR WHETHER THE STALLED FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE LOW JUST CLIPS MOSTLY DOWNEAST AREAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME SITES MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT AT 2K FT IS LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT WILL BE UP THROUGH MIDDAY FOR OUR OUTERS WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.