Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211016 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW. THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S BY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959. .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER MARINE...CB/BLOOMER CLIMATE...CB

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