Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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511 FXUS61 KCAR 251430 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will cross the region today. A cold front will begin to cross the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1025 AM Update... Decided to add enhanced wording in the forecast through the evening for gusty winds and hail. The latest run of the RAP matching up well w/the latest meso-analysis showed decaying cold front across central and downeast areas w/dewpoints in the mid 50s. This area is where the highest theta e air exists. Further to the n and w, dewpoints dropped back into upper 40s and the low 50s. Dewpoints across the region are projected to climb this afternoon w/the central and downeast region seeing upper 50s by the afternoon. Looking for tstms to develop along w/showers this afternoon into the evening starting out across the west and then migrate e across central and downeast. The RAP soundings showed CAPE values climbing to 500-800 joules w/some shear of 25 kts. Steepening lapse rates w/inverted v notch in the llvls will allow for gusty winds. WBZs in the 7k foot range to allow for some hail potential. A second cold front is slated to move into the region this evening w/activity spreading further n. The HRRR and NAM12 show this well. Decided to add gusty winds for the evening given the decent shear that was noted earlier. Tweaked hrly temps/dewpoints to match up w/the latest conditions. Will be updating the Hazardous Weather Outlook to address the tstm potential and enhanced wording. Previous Discussion... A weakening slow moving cold front will remain across central portions of the forecast area today, while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Skies will be mostly sunny this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop this afternoon along with partly sunny skies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening. Another cold front will approach northern Maine late tonight which will keep a chance of showers across mostly northern areas overnight. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s north, to the upper 70s to around 80 interior Downeast with mid to upper 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid 50s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Monday then become stationary across the region. Low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front later in the day Monday. This is expected to produce showers across the area Monday night and into Tuesday. Thunder is also possible Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough is expected to move across the region Tuesday night resulting in more showers. A second upper level system will approach from the west and move across the area Wednesday with additional showers. More showers are then expected again on Thursday as a third area of weak low pressure moves across the state. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Locally variable conditions could occur with any patchy fog early this morning. Variable conditions will also occur with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected today through much of tonight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains later tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday. MVFR/VFR are expected Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for paddle craft risk. Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities could be locally reduced in any showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon into early tonight. Patchy fog is then possible later tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize sustained wind speed. Will lower model wind speed by 10 percent due to cold sea surface temperature. Will transition to super blend winds late Tuesday. For Waves: South to southwesterly wind wave is expected to be the primary wave system Monday through Thursday. A secondary long period swell system (1-2 feet/10-12 seconds) is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Will use the Nearshore Prediction System for wave heights Monday and Tuesday then transition to the Wave Watch III late Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone

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