Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290227 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 927 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WORK ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT ONE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH A SECOND FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING AT ALL LEVELS. THE TRUE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL QUEBEC AND WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A NARROW BAND FROM SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE TO MONTICELLO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE POPS IN A SMALL AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST AND DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THAT ALSO NECESSITATE RAISING THE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... OUR STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE ABOUT TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END THANKS TO A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE REGION. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND THE LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR DOWN EAST TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THINK WE WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING MONDAY MORNING AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DOWN EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VERY LARGE AND VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE NATION WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND FRIGID WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE COUNTRY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL PULL A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A COLD FRONT TRAILING A SMALL LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, LIKELY BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ON FRIDAY AS A NEW HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES IN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND MERGES WITH THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LARGE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING AS IT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST. LONG RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST, BUT IT REMAIN QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SECONDARY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT WARM AIR FROM SURGING NORTH AND CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN THEN PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS LIKELY DOWNEAST. A QUICK AND STRONG REDEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTH WITH COLD AIR HELD IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF STRONG REDEVELOPMENT WOULD ALLOW THE WARM AIR TO SURGE NORTH TURNING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN THEN POSSIBLY PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A CHANGE TO RAIN DOWNEAST AND A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND IT. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: AREAS OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR IN THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH. OTHERWISE VFR TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ESPECIALLY KPQI/KHUL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/DUDA/BLOOMER MARINE...CB/DUDA/BLOOMER

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