Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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916 FXUS61 KCAR 252053 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 353 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will finish lifting north of the region this evening. A cold front will cross the region late tonight. High pressure will build across the region later Sunday. A second cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The first concern may be the return of dense fog...potentially requiring an adv...across the N this eve where warm air just alf has not quite made it to the sfc. Fog may return to Downeast areas this eve as the sfc cools a few deg aft sunset. Otherwise...the other main concern will be the arrival of the cold frontal shwr band later ovrngt. With the potential of elevated CAPE, we kept the mention of isold tstms just ahead of thew cold front as it crosses W to E ovr the region. Temps should cont to rise ovr Cntrl and Nrn ptns of the region ahead of the front this eve...but exactly how much is uncertain. We blended 12z dtmnstc GFS and CANGem model temps thru 1 am, then blend to fcst low temps at 7am Sun. Lastly, most model guidance indicates that shwrs will end as brief pd of sn shwrs immediately behind he cold front across the N and spcly the NW where upwards to an inch or two may fall ovr the higher trrn before sn shwrs diminish later Sun morn. Elsewhere across the N any sn accumulation will be msly less than an inch. Cntrl and Downeast areas will see increasing sunshine as the day progresses Sun. Hi temps Sun will only make about a 5 deg rise from fcst lows due to mdtly strong llvl cold advcn which will be accompanied by wrly wind gusts up to 30 to 35 mph during the late morn and erly aftn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Next concern is a weak system/cold front for Monday. Limited moisture with this system and strongest dynamics are over the north, where we could see some snow squalls, possibly mixed with rain. Best shot looks to be around midday. Any snow accumulations should be less than an inch, and limited to the north. Steep low-level lapse rates will bring some gusty winds to the surface areawide, with gusts to around 30 mph most areas and locally stronger. Behind the Monday system, look for a seasonably cold night Monday night with lows in the single digits to teens north and low to mid 20s toward the coast. A bit warmer for Tuesday with a chance of mixed precipitation late in the day Downeast on the leading edge of the next system.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Active weather Wednesday and Thursday with one or potentially two systems in quick succession. Models are having a lot of issues though. Operational Canadian model is south and gives most areas snow, operational GFS is further north with mostly rain, and operational ECMWF is between the two. ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles show high uncertainty, but their ensemble mean is right in the middle, and went close to this in the forecast. This ensemble mean solution would mean multiple precipitation types Wednesday/Thursday, generally favoring snow or rain/snow over the extreme north and favoring rain Downeast. Will have to keep a close eye on this system/series of systems as it does have the potential to be a high impact event. Will probably take some time, though, for the models to come into better agreement on it. High confidence in colder air behind this system, moving in Thursday night into the weekend. Good shot at below average temperatures and probably no significant systems Thursday night through Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR conditions will cont ovr Nrn TAF sites tngt in fog...dz and shwrs...improving to IFR in rn/sn shwrs very late tngt and erly Sun morn behind the cold front and then to high MVFR or low VFR the rest of the day Sun. Downeast sites will vary from low VFR to IFR this eve with the return of fog and dz and shwrs later tngt. Conditions improve to VFR behind the cold front Sun morn and cont thru the rest of the day Sun. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR Sunday night through early Tuesday. Exception is localized MVFR in showers over the north on Monday. Gusty winds Monday also. Lower ceilings and visibilities Tuesday night and especially Wednesday/Thursday with the next likely weather system.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: We converted the gale watch to an SCA for our waters for late tngt thru late Sun ngt with fcst max gusts of 30+ kt not quite strong enough for a gale wrng. Otherwise, areas of fog tngt will end with the passage of the cold front by early Sun morn. We kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: Likelihood of gale conditions Monday with west/southwest winds. Think that steep lapse rates/unstable atmosphere will help mix some of the stronger gusts down to the ocean surface. Calming down quite a bit for Tuesday. Increasing winds and seas midweek with the next system.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No changes to the Flood Watch were made with this forecast cycle. Snow melt from the deep snowpack continues through tonight with rainfall amounts of just over a half inch by Sunday morning. Water levels are starting to rise modestly on the river gauges on the Piscataquis and its branches, but the best response should be later Saturday night into Sunday. NERFC and ensemble river forecasts continue rises into Sunday morning, but nothing close to flood stages. The subtlety in the forecast is that the Piscataquis River is expected to rise some 4 feet at Dover- Foxcroft. The last estimate of ice thickness is just over a foot. This rise would likely sufficient to break the ice and cause some movement. Any movement means ice jams are a threat. While the rises are nearly three feet at Grindstone, ice thickness is greater and the odds of breaking up the ice are less. Thus the focus is now sharpened towards southern Piscataquis County.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MEZ010-011-015>017-031- 032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...VJN/Foisy Marine...VJN/Foisy Hydrology...VJN

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