Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230209 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1009 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE: WE DID MOVE UP THE TMG OF HIGHER POPS BY AN HR OR TWO THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF SHOWING FASTER FILLING OF RN REF ACROSS THE FA THEN PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM OBS...WITH FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM MON ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY A DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA FROM THE PREV FCST LOW...BASED ON OBSVD-PREV FCST TEMP TRENDS AT 9 PM. ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT LINE. WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW

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