Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240142 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 942 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 942 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALSO PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN JUST BELOW FREEZING AT KFVE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT ALL LEVELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SFC-810 MILLIBARS THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY ARE AT OR BELOW FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT. SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN. DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE... BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE AFTN HRS. AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN. LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN HYDROLOGY...CB

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