Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291036 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 636 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridge will remain across the region through the end of the week. Low pressure will gradually approach from the south on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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635 AM update...Not seeing much fog around the region this morning. As per the latest obs and webcams, it`s mainly limited to the St John Valley. Have therefore removed it from the rest of the area. Temperatures have dropped into the lower and mid 30s in many northern locations, so have kept the mention of patchy frost for the next hour or two. Also made some tweaks to sky cover as there are some high clouds streaming over central/Downeast Maine at this hour. Overall, changes were relatively minor. Previous discussion...High pressure will gradually settle across the area today and tonight, leading to fair weather. Any clouds or fog this morning will quickly dissipate by afternoon with plenty of sunshine expected. This will allow temperatures to reaching into the lower 60s in most spots, with some interior Downeast locations topping out around 65F. Far northern Maine and the immediate coast will be a bit cooler, mainly in the 50s. Optimal radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight with clear skies and light winds. Much of northern and central portions of our forecast area will see lows in the mid and upper 30s, with the usual cold spots in the far northwest seeing lower 30s. As such, patchy frost is expected. Downeast should remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The 29/00z dtmnstc GFS and ECMWF solutions are now in better agreement in suggesting that blocking high pres will hold ovr the FA Fri thru most of Sun, with perhaps lgt rnfl grazing Downeast areas Sun aftn as sfc low pres moves E of Cape Cod well ahead of upper low pres movg ENE from the great lks. Otherwise, fair skies Fri will slowly give to increasing hi/mid cldnss from S to N across the FA Sat into Sun. Fri ngt will be cooler than Sat ngt, spcly across the Nrn vlys where there could be patchy frost where skies are xpctd to be clearest. Hi temps will be msly abv avg, spcly across the N Sat and Sun. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shwrs will be a little more widespread W to E across the FA beginning late Sun ngt and contg thru Mon as whats left of the upper low apchs Srn ptns of the FA from the great lks. For now, we held off on likely PoPs, and went with hi chc PoPs, given uncertainty where heavier shwrs will cross into what ptn of the FA, but could see likely PoPs for ptns of the FA as we get closer to this event. Showers should wind down NW to SE Mon ngt and Tue morn as the upper low/trof slowly moves E of the FA aft most lctns receive 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rn. Aft cooler dytm temps Mon and Tue due to cldnss and shwrs, with little in the way of llvl cool air following the upper trof, hi temps Wed should recover to aoa seasonal avg hi temps under msly clr skies with apchg sfc hi pres. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: After any fog burns off this morning, generally by 13z, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites, xcpt MVFR clgs/vsbys possible Sun ngt into Mon with shwrs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM:The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. Winds have been slow to come up but are finally gusting around 25 kt while seas are around 5 ft. This trend will continue through mid morning or so, and then winds will subside as high pressure builds over the waters. Seas will be slower to decrease and the SCA could potentially be converted to one for hazardous seas and extended into this evening. Subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends and adjust headlines accordingly. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No definable hdlns anticipated thru this ptn of the fcst, although winds and wvs could come close to SCA thresholds Sun into Sun ngt msly across the outer waters. Primary wv pds durg this tm will be running between 7-9 sec and we kept close WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN

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