Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCAR 201803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
103 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
High pressure will build across the region later today through
early Tuesday. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday
night through early Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will build east toward the region this afternoon.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon. Scattered
flurries are also possible across eastern areas. North to
northwest winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 20s
to lower 30s north, to the upper 30s Bangor and Downeast. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along
with afternoon temperatures and cloud cover. Have also issued a
Small Craft Advisory for Winds for the intracoastal waters into
Winds will subside this eve, becoming lgt and variable ovr
broad vly regions late tngt as the sfc hi becomes ovrhd by erly
Tue morn. Given this and a very dry hydro-lapse rate from the
sfc to 850mb and cont`d clr skies, conditions will be ideal for
a strong sfc base invsn ovr broad vly areas...spcly across the
N. So despite modest late 925mb temps in the upper single digits
below zero by late tngt, sfc base invsn strengths of 15 to 20
deg ovr spcly Nrn vlys will result in lows of 10 below to 15
below across these valleys with coldest lctns across the NW St
John vly reaching as low as 15 below to 20 below.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure cresting over the region Tuesday morning will bring a
sunny, tranquil start to the day on Tuesday. Sunshine will give way
to some increasing high clouds Tuesday afternoon as temperatures
rapidly recover to near normal after the dissipation of the morn
invsn. Low pressure tracking through central Canada will pull a
weak occluded front across the area Tuesday night. Some patchy
light snow, or perhaps sleet in central areas, will move through
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures behind
the front on Wednesday will then rise above freezing across the
area reaching the upper 30s north to low 40s Downeast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Later in the week, a small area of low pressure tracking to our
north on Thursday will pull even warmer air across the region and
bring a chance for some rain showers to the area. Highs may get
close to 40 north and low to mid 40s Downeast. High pressure will
then bring some clearing on Friday with the air still rather mild.
Our focus going into the weekend will be on yet another low tracking
to north. This may bring some snow or sleet across the north
initially Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front lifts
across the area. Temperatures by Saturday afternoon should become
warm enough for rain across the region as the low center lifts to
our northwest. Colder air will follow on Sunday with a chance for
snow showers as the low slides into eastern Quebec.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region this
afternoon through tonight. North to northwest winds will gust
up to 25 to 30 mph today.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure on
Tuesday. Conditions will likely lower to MVFR later Tuesday
night in lower clouds as an occluded front moves through. A
return to VFR conditions is likely Wednesday with some MVFR
conditions possibly lingering across the north. MVFR conditions
are likely Wednesday night into Thursday with occasional IFR
conditions possible over the north on Thursday.
NEAR TERM: Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Winds for the
intracoastal waters into this evening with this update. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the rest of the waters
through late tonight. Light freezing spray is expected on the
waters later tonight.
SHORT TERM: High pressure across the waters on Tuesday will
bring tranquil conditions over the ocean. Winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA through Wednesday and Thursday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 9 PM EST this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.