Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260120 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 920 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure remains over the region tonight. A backdoor cold front from eastern Quebec will cross northern Maine early Tuesday afternoon, reaching the Downeast coast by late evening...then stalling. This front will return north in the form of a warm front Wednesday. Meanwhile, a stronger cold front from central Canada will cross the region later Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 9:20 PM Update...A very warm and muggy night. As of 9 PM temperatures are still in the 70s inland with upper 50s and low 60s confined to areas along and near the coast. Satellite pictures show some cirrus moving out of Quebec and into northern Maine, and the fog channel shows areas of stratus lurking just offshore. Expect that some of this lower cloud cover will make its way onshore overnight. Other than increasing the skycon a bit along and near the coast, and updating with the latest observational data, no significant changes are planned at this time. Previous discussion... Tonight will be a very warm and humid mid summer ngt in late Sept, spcly ovr hier trrn lctns as the core of the unseasonably warm air mass rotates ovr the Rgn. Most areas will stay clr to mclr, with only Downeast coastal areas being brushed with oceanic ST and patchy fog late ngt into erly Tue morn. Otherwise the 12z dtmnstc 12z GFS, ECMWF, and CanGem models agree pretty closely that a fast movg zonal s/wv from N Cntrl Can will move into Ern QB and Labrador by Tue morn will begin to squash this historic upper ridge/high that has resided ovr the Ern great lks and the Northeast U.S., including New England. This will allow a backdoor cold frontal passage beginning midday across the extreme N and reaching the Downeast coast by late evening. This will be dry cold frontal passage, only accompanied by mid cld band, with mid lvl lapse rates to stable to allow for much in the way cnvctn. The earlier arrival of the cold front across the N with some cldnss will commute the rapid rise of temps from reaching highs ovr this ptn of the Rgn as warm as this current aftn as sfc winds become N to NE. Further S ovr low trrn cntrl and interior Downeast areas however, temps will have one more uninterrupted run at highs of upper 80s to lower 90s with WSW sfc winds before the front arrives late in the aftn and erly eve respectfully. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The muggy weather will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as the weak warm front lifts back north into Quebec/New Brunswick. However, relief will be in sight in the form of a cold front which will approach from the west late Wednesday and cross the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There could be a few showers around Tuesday night and Wednesday morning owing to increasing moisture, but the bulk of any rain will fall later Wednesday through Wednesday night just ahead of and along the front. The highest precipitation totals will fall across northern Maine where up to a half inch is possible, though much of the region will see a quarter inch or less. Models are indicating SB CAPEs of 500-900 J/kg will be possible across the North Woods Wednesday afternoon, so have continued with the chance for thunderstorms in this area. Wednesday`s highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 70s, while lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60. The front will push offshore by early Thursday afternoon, bringing any lingering rain showers to an end and ushering in a drier and much more seasonable airmass. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, warmest for interior Downeast, but a brisk northwest wind will make it feel a bit cooler. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Much cooler and drier weather on the way for the end of this week into early next week. Another rainless stretch is looking likely as a ridge will build across the region, though a few showers are possible on Saturday as an upper trough swings through. It will definitely feel more fall-like, especially Friday and Saturday when highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 50s. Patchy frost will be possible in northern areas over the weekend, mainly in those usual cold valleys. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions xpctd across all of our TAF sites tngt thru Tue, with a possible exception of low MVFR/IFR clgs and reduced vsbys with oceanic ST and patchy fog brushing the Downeast coast late tngt into erly Tue morn and briefly affecting KBHB. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions are likely at the southern terminals 00z-12z Wednesday due to fog and low ceilings, while prevailing MVFR with occasional IFR is expected across the north. A cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially at the northern sites. Prevailing MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Wednesday, with IFR possible in any precipitation. Fog and low stratus will return to the southern terminals after 00z Thu, but it will dissipate 09-12z Thu once the front moves through. All sites are expected to be VFR by 18z Thu and remain so through Friday, although patchy river valley fog will be possible early Friday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: With WW3 wv guidance indicating higher swell radiating from distant Maria not xpctd to arrive much before Tue eve, we held off on any SCA for Seas for our outer MZs for now. Saying this, it will be possible for occasional hi sets of swell to result in an hr or two of wv hts arnd 6 ft over our outer buoys between now and Tue eve, and certainly later shifts can update to an SCA if deemed necessary. Wv pds will cont to be a very long 12 to 16 sec. Otherwise, oceanic ST and fog will be returning later this eve and contg thru Tue as high dwpt air becomes in contact with cold Gulf of ME waters. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will be needed for mid to late week as long period swell from Maria keeps seas at 4- 7 feet. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt Wednesday night and Thursday with a cold frontal passage, but they are expected to remain below 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Record highs were tied or broken across northern and eastern Maine this afternoon. At Caribou, the high of 88F broke the previous record of 83F set in 2007. It was also the warmest temperature ever observed so late in the season. At Bangor, the high of 88F tied the record high last set in 1930. For a complete list of record high temperatures please see the news stories on the top section of our web page at && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/VJN/Hastings Marine...CB/VJN/Hastings Climate...CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.