Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 262145 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
545 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Low pressure will move slowly away from the region tonight with
weak high pressure moving overnight and into tomorrow. Low
pressure will move out of southern New England toward the area
tomorrow night with precipitation developing from south to north.
Snow will be possible tomorrow night and into Friday over higher
elevations with several inches possible over mountain peaks.
Precipitation moves out briefly Friday night and Saturday before
another system moves through late Saturday bringing another chance
for precipitation. High pressure then builds over the region for
Monday and into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
6 PM update...
Scattered showers are beginning to dissipate now as diurnal
heating is lost. Showers may briefly change over to snow or a
rain/snow mix as they continue to decrease over the next couple
of hours with low pressure moving east. Not expecting anything
more than a trace or a dusting out of any of these cells.
Temperatures should drop off overnight into the 20s and 30s with
a dry slot moving into the area towards morning. Hourly parameters
were adjusted for this thinking.
Scattered showers will begin to diminish this evening as we move
away from diurnal heating. Expect cloud cover to diminish as the
evening progresses also as temperatures fall into the 20s and 30s
at most locations.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure pulls off to the east of the region high pressure
will begin to nose southward from Canada. The result should be
decreasing clouds tomorrow and even some breaks of sun by
afternoon at most locations. Even still...expect temperatures to
remain in the 40s at most locations. Look for increasing clouds in
the late afternoon though as low pressure over the Great Lakes
region begins to move eastward.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure centered over lake Ontario Thursday afternoon will
begin its trek eastward Thursday evening. As the low deepens over
the Tug Hill plateau it will also begin to slow down a
bit...perhaps even a little more than the models suggest. By 06z
Friday though we should see the precipitation shield ahead of the
system well into Maine and on the doorstep of the CWA. It is
around this same time that we begin to see a secondary low
pressure system developing over Rhode Island. By 12z Friday we
should see an energy transfer from the Great Lakes low to the
southern New England low with the result being a very strong
singular low centered over southern New Hampshire. The
precipitation by this time should be as far north as Millinocket.
As the low continue to deepen and move into the Gulf of Maine
there should be some significant precipitation falling over a good
portion of Maine. Temperatures over the mountains look like they
could remain cold enough for significant snowfall over the highest
The system moves offshore Saturday night with some weak induced
ridging Saturday morning before another system tracking across
southern Canada begins to affect the area. By late Saturday
afternoon precipitation will once again cover the region and is
expected to continue overnight before high pressure begins to
build in for Sunday night through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR cigs this afternoon and evening with VFR
conditions tomorrow. MVFR cigs return tomorrow night with IFR/LIFR
cigs and vsbys becoming widespread by Friday morning.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into
Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches
Saturday night and into Sunday.
NEAR TERM: No flags expected.
SHORT TERM: Updated to include Penobscot Bay in the Gale Watch. Will
continue the Gale Watch for late Thursday night through Friday.
Subsequent shifts may have to evaluate whether that will be
sufficient as winds could approach Storm force.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for