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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 011254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
854 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKING
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE COULD RESULT IN SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
900 AM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. STRATUS REMAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. NORTH AND WEST REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST.

ORGNL DISC: SHALLOW AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVR BROAD VLY AREAS WILL
CONT AT LEAST INTO THE ERLY MORN HRS INLAND...AND PERHAPS AS LONG
AS LATE MORN ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST AS LLVL MOIST AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED OVR OUR FA.

AFT THE FOG LIFTS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD UNDER PTLY TO
MSLY SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS MORN INTO ERLY AFTN FOR CU CLDS TO
GROW TO SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH CVRG PERHAPS NUMEROUS ACROSS THE BAXTER PARK AND CNTRL
ME HIGHLANDS PTN OF THE REGION AS A WEAK S/WV FROM ERN ONT/SE QB
MOVES ENE ACROSS THE NW PTNS OF THE FA. MAX AFTN SBCAPE IS NOT
FCST TO EXCEED 500J/KG OVR ANY PTN OF THE FA...BUT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE MID LVL CAP THIS AFTN FOR ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE
SHWRS...SPCLY OVR MTN TRRN...SO WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH POPS
GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT THRU 9 PM. HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL NOT BE
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YSTDY AFTN.

WHATS LEFT OF THE AFTN SHWRS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
NE TOWARD NRN NB PROV BY LATE EVENING AS THE S/WV MOVES TOWARD THE
GASPE PENINSULA...ALLOWING FOR SOME CLRG AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA LATE TNGT. THIS...IN TURN WILL AGAIN
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TNGT.
OVRNGT LOWS TNGT WILL LIKELY BE A 2 OR 3 DEG WARMER THAN THIS
CURRENT ERLY MORN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THEME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AREA WILL BEGIN TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER CONTINUED W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING A DISTURBANCE RIDING NE ALONG THE FLOW
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING BETTER LIFTING
DYNAMICS DOWNEAST PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. PLAN TO
BRING POPS UP SOME TO REFLECT THIS REASONABLE TREND. MORE
UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY WITH LESS DYNAMICS AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP RIGHT
NOW LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EVEN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECENT CAPE PROFILES SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOST OF THE
SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SOME OF THE DISTURBANCES
THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIP AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES IN OUR FA WILL BEGIN VLIFR-IFR IN
SHALLOW FOG ERLY THIS MORN...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORN...
XCPT PERHAPS KBHB WHICH MAY HOLD ON TO IFR LONGER TIL ABOUT MIDDAY
DUE TO LINGERING OCEAN ST. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY LOWER BACK TO IFR
AGAIN LATE TNGT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN-OVC ST/FOG.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT PARTICULARLY VALLEY
SITES COULD SEE REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH FOG DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS AT SITES THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS SLATED THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH 8 SEC PD
SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT TDY TO 1 TO 3 FT TNGT...
HIGHER WVS OVR THE OUTER MZS. DUE TO THE SEMI-SWELL NATURE OF
WVS...WE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HTS THIS FCST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...
MOIST SEMI-TROP AIR GLIDING NWRD OVR THE GULF OF ME WATERS FROM THE
OPEN ATLC WILL CONT TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG RESTRICTING VSBYS TO
A MILE OR LESS TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS STAYING
BELOW THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN