Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290428 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1228 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build down from Canada tonight. A warm front will lift north of the area later Sunday into Sunday night bringing showers to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... Latest observations show mid level cloud across the region early this morning. Radar is showing a few returns entering nw areas. Hi res guidance shows any showers overnight will be confined to mainly far northern areas and the St. John Valley. Have cut back on the fog overnight for downeast and have only mentioned patchy fog. Tweaked temps/dew points only slightly otherwise no other changes. Prev discussion blo... A cold front lies draped somewhere along the Downeast coast this afternoon. In addition, a sea breeze is evident on satellite imagery and in coastal observations. Cherryfield is now down to 74 degrees after topping out at 82 degrees around noon. We`re still anticipating showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in the Bangor region down to the coast. Current SB CAPES are running 1000+ J/kg in far southwestern Penobscot County, as per the latest mesoanalysis from SPC. This combined with the cold front and sea breeze should be enough to spark some convection. Cumulus fields have been increasing over the past couple of hours, so shouldn`t be too much longer for showers to develop. Once this occurs, the latest HRRR shows the activity initially drifting southeast toward the coast, but the precipitation will then lift back northward along the sea breeze front once it becomes established. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing small hail and heavy rain. Showers will wind down later this evening as daytime heating is lost. For the remainder of tonight into Sunday...Weak high pressure tries to build in tonight, then the cold front will lift back north as a warm front late Sunday. Lingering moisture will allow patchy fog to develop across our central and southern areas, particularly along the coast. Further north, there could be a brief clearing this evening, but high clouds will spread in from the west quickly overnight. Showers will also spread eastward later tonight out ahead of the warm front as it progresses northward. These showers will eventually spread over northern Maine Sunday morning, with the most concentrated activity over western and central Aroostook County. Further south, particularly south of Millinocket, the showers will be more spotty. Both the GFS and the NAM indicate some elevated instability across the north as well, so wouldn`t be surprised to see a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs will be cooler than today, especially in central and Downeast areas where highs will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today. Northern Maine will top out in the lower to mid 60s, while southern areas will be in the mid 60s to around 70. Cooler along the immediate coast where they`ll be lucky to hit 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Initially...shwrs topping the upper ridge from QB prov will cont ovr msly Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA Sun ngt...then remnant shwrs from the trop system currently just SE of the Carolinas will clip the Srn ptn of the FA on Mon...with perhaps enough instability for aftn TSTMS. With highest trop PWATs from the Bahamas area in excess of 1.50 inches ovr the S hlf of the FA attm...we mention heavy downpour wording with tstms Mon aftn...but this could be pessimistic...spcly if deep trop moisture remains S of the FA. Overall...6 hrly QPFs do not look to be that high attm...but bears watching for possible heavier rnfl meso-scale features spcly on Mon. Some clrg will be possible spcly ovr the Srn two thirds of FA Mon ngt as the mid lvl s/wv moves E of the FA...taking trop moisture with it. Tue will begin msly fair...but a s/wv movg E from Cntrl Can will bring a chc of shwrs to msly Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA later Tue aftn into erly Tues eve. With very lmtd CAPES...we mention isold tstms with greater than 25 percent chc PoPs...with lgt 6 hrly QPF amounts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Behind the last exiting s/wv from cntrl Can...skies should clr ovrngt Tue with fair and near seasonal hi temps on Wed and Thu. The next chc of shwrs will be later Fri into Sat as s/wv trof system from the midwest begins to move ENE toward the FA. Max PWATs possibly in excess of 1.50 inches could mean sig rnfl with this system...but for now given that this is days 6 and 7 in the outlook...we lmtd max PoPs to the hi chc category for now. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected for first 6-8 hours tonight before lowering to MVFR by daybreak. IFR restrictions expected at FVE, CAR and PQI in -shra during the day tomorrow. At HUL, BGR and BHB may see low MVFR cigs during the day with brief IFR restrictions possible, but confidence is low and have not included in valid terminal forecasts at this time. SHORT TERM: LIFR and IFR conditions xpctd across the FA Sun ngt in shwrs and fog...then improving to MVFR by Mon aftn into Mon ngt with shwrs/tstms diminishing Mon ngt. conditions should improve to VFR on Tue and cont thru Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters through the remainder of the weekend. The main concern for the period will be reduced visibility in areas of fog into Sunday morning. SHORT TERM: No high probability pd of SCA winds/seas are xpctd... xcpt perhaps Mon ngt...where a brief pd of SCA wv hts may occur with with a below SCA WSW wind fetch. Low vsbys in fog could be problem Sun ngt into Mon morn as moist tropical air flows nwrd ovr the cold Gulf of ME waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar/Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings/VJN Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings/VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.