


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --553 FXUS61 KCAR 111943 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 343 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough exits the region this afternoon and evening to the Maritimes. High pressure will build over the area tonight into Saturday then move east Sunday. A cold front will slowly cross the region Monday into Tuesday while weakening. High pressure will cross the region Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --The upper trough continues to move out through the area and should eventually exit into the Maritimes this evening. A few subtle shortwaves on the backside of the trough are contributing enough forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows favorable surface based instability in excess of 1000 J/kg and some moderate effective bulk shear. However, storms have been struggling to maintain intense cores for very long likely due to the large scale descent associated with the exiting trough and approaching ridge behind it. Thus, it is unlikely for storms to reach severe criteria. Showers and storms should taper off this evening leading to a dry night. Fog is expected to develop overnight due to clearing skies and calm winds especially where any storms have produced precipitation the previous afternoon. Fog should clear out by mid-morning Saturday and skies should gradually become mostly sunny with the greatest clearing towards the north. An isolated shower during the day tomorrow cannot be completely ruled out as some CAMs suggested but given the subsidence from the high pressure had too low confidence to add it into the forecast. Dry conditions prevail Saturday night with patchy fog likely to develop over the coast and interior Downeast regions.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A cold front will cross Quebec province Sunday through Sunday night then begin to cross the forecast area Monday. Surface/upper level ridging will exit across the Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night, with surface ridging still extending westward back toward Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance should cross the region later Sunday into Sunday night. Low clouds/fog are possible early Sunday. Otherwise, generally expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies north. With support from diurnal heating, could also have a slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms across mostly northern areas. After morning low clouds/fog Downeast, expect generally partly sunny skies. A slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist across mostly northern areas Sunday night. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will begin to cross the region Monday. Expect mostly cloudy skies with showers likely, along with a chance of thunderstorms, across northern areas Monday. Across Downeast areas, after morning low clouds and fog, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect near normal level temperatures Sunday/Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --The cold front should begin to stall and weaken across the forecast area Monday night. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies along with decreasing shower/thunderstorm chances. The weakening remnants of the cold front will remain across the region Tuesday, with a secondary cold front/trof also possible. Expect partly sunny skies along with still the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Tuesday. Uncertainty increases later Wednesday into Friday regarding the timing of a cold front. The location of the cold front will help influence shower/thunderstorm chances later Wednesday into Friday. Expect above normal level temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms for northern terminals. Ceilings and visibilities may briefly lower in any storms. Tonight, conditions will deteriorate to IFR and possibly LIFR at southern terminals as low clouds and fog are expected to develop. Ceilings should lift to MVFR in the morning and eventually VFR by the afternoon at northern terminals but may stay MVFR for southern terminals. Patchy fog is expected to develop again Saturday night. Light S winds today through Saturday night. SHORT TERM: Sunday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm mostly north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly north. South winds 5 to 10 knots. Monday through Tuesday...Variable conditions with any showers or thunderstorms. Also, with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, generally VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday. Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory criteria through Saturday night. Light S/SW flow around 5 kts. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. Patchy fog Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Melanson Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Melanson/Norcross Marine...Melanson/Norcross