National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241427
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1015 AM UPDATE: LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY BETWEEN PQI AND HUL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN GOING ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THE
DAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S.

ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THERE IS A
925 MB JET WORKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED WINDS SPEEDS THERE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
NORTHEAST OF THE COAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN. PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES ARE VERY STRONG SO EXPECT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO MAINLY BE AN EFFECT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT RATHER THAN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, IN FACT LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S TODAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY
RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCES BEING IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF DURING SPECIFIC PERIODS. GENERALLY, UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST BUT WEIGHTED THE BLEND A BIT HEAVIER TOWARD
THE GEM AND GFS.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST NORTH AND WEST, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE MAINE COAST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES
DRIFTING NORTH AND MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO SET UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO GENERALLY BE AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH EXCEPT A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TENDING TO SHIFT WITH TIME OVER THE
PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. ONLY EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, COOLEST NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT BUT MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL AND GRAY WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY RAISE TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF FOG. BY MONDAY CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE SWELL
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR SEAS ALONE.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN/FOG.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SWELL
TO PERSIST RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS