Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 012214 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 614 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 614 PM UPDATE...THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDS FROM ABOUT MARS HILL TO CHAMBERLAIN LAKE AND CONTINUES TO INCH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH. SOME REFINEMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A NARROW GRADIENT FROM A CLEAR SKY IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO 100 PCT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR LIFT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CLEARING IN THE NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT AREAS FROM KPQI NORTH SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF. CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOWER FOR KHUL DUE TO THE CLOUDS SO AT THIS TIME KEPT VIS AT MVFR FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .CLIMATE...THE SEPTEMBER CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE IS NOW AVAILABLE AT CXUS 51 KCAR OR PWMCLMCAR. THE SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW CLIMATE...CB

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