Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210106 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 806 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE COULD INCREASE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 NORTH...TO AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS THAT ADVECTED INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. NEAR THE COAST A WEAK TROUGH AND BIT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND 30 TO 35 DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN DO TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND USE 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL USE THE BURLINGTON SKY TOOL FOR CLOUD COVER. SUPER BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND GMOS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE THAT IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE WHICH WILL TURN TO RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS... THE SUPER BLEND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO 11 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE SIMILAR. WILL REPLACE THE SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURE... WHICH LOOKS TOO WARM... WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO WITH HEAVY SNOW COVER IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECT... HYDRO ISSUES MAY RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CEILINGS...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. EXPECT WAVES AROUND 3 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING FROM BLEND OF 2 FOOT WIND WAVE AND 1 FOOT INCOMING SWELL. AS SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WAVES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND 25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET/ 10-12 SECONDS THROUGH THIS TIDAL PERIOD. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR OVERTOPPING ALONG EXPOSED COASTLINE. WAVE MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON WAVE HEIGHTS A LITTLE DURING LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO SHORTER FETCH DURATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WITH SPRING TIDE...WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE

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