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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250113
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
913 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will prevail over the area
overnight. An upper level trough of low pressure will remain to
our west through early this week. The trough will lift out
during the mid week period as high pressure builds to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
9:13 PM Update...One cold front has pushed off the coast, but
there is a secondary cold front across Quebec this evening.
Scattered showers ahead of this front appear to be enhanced by a
mid to upper level disturbance. The HRRR has a reasonable
depiction of these showers, and the HRRR would have the last of
them ending by around or just after midnight across the eastern
zones. The main adjustment was to the PoP/Wx grids for the next
few hours to account for these showers. Otherwise, only minor
tweaks based on the latest observations.

Previous discussion...
Most of the shwrs have already moved out of the Rgn as of mid
aftn as drier llvl air moves into Rgn from QB. Any isold shwrs
should end by erly eve as a weak ridge of hi pres tries to
exert some influence ovr the Rgn later tngt, allowing for clrg
and and some radiational cooling ovr Nrn broad rvr vlys.

Sun will begin fair, but then aftn clds and eventually mid to
late aftn shwrs and a few tstms will develop as an upper
trof/low from SE Ont begins to apch. With sig lower PWs and
fast mid troposphere flow as evident by Corfidi vectors, rnfl
potential will be less with fast moving shwrs and tstms than
last ngt and this morning. Both lows tngt and hi temps Sun will
be near seasonal norms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our weather pattern will remain a bit unsettled as the new week
begins with a shallow trough of low pressure remaining to our west
as weak disturbances track out of this trough and across our area.
Some spotty showers and thunderstorms may be around Sunday evening
as one disturbance and a weak surface trough move across the area.
Another weak disturbance and surface trough will move through on
Monday bringing another chance for spotty showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The best chances for showers Monday will be over the
higher elevation to the west. Another slightly stronger disturbance
will lift out of the trough and slide across the region late Monday
night into Tuesday with a better chance for more showers. Some
thunderstorms may form across central and interior Downeast
locations along and just south of a weak surface boundary over the
region Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough which will be to our west during the early week
will lift out to our north on Wednesday. As it does, it will pull
a weak cold front across the area bringing another chance for
scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms. High pressure
will build to our south during the mid-week period and warm,
humid air pushing north around the high will push north against
a frontal boundary dividing the warmer air to the south from
cooler air to the north in eastern Canada. A low tracking along
this front will bring a chance for rain late Thursday into
Friday. High pressure dropping down from Canada may then bring
drying for early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites xcpt briefly MVFR late this
evening at the northern Taf sites in showers, and Sunday aftn
in any tstm or heavier shwr.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into
early Monday with VFR conditions likely Monday afternoon.
Conditions may drop back to MVFR Monday night into early
Tuesday, with localized IFR conditions in fog possible Downeast.
Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are then likely Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: The seas are still around 6 feet as of 9 PM, so will
extend the small craft advisory for hazardous seas for our
outer zones until 1 AM Sunday. Both the wind and seas should
subside later tngt into Sun. Still some areas of dense fog over
the waters, but that should see vast improvement later this
evening as the cold front pushes offshore.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Sunday
night through early next week. Humid air over the cold waters
will likely result in fog limiting visibilities at times through
early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/VJN/Bloomer
Marine...CB/VJN/Bloomer